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European Elections 2014


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What 'protest vote' have UKIP stolen and from whom?

 

The local and European elections have become more about sending a message to the big political parties or government than they are about voting in democratically elected individuals. The local/European elections ARE a protest election, and is a different kettle of fish to a general election. As for who voted for UKIP in protest

 

1) Labour & the Tories - UKIP spent their entire election campaign pretending to be anti-establishment and it worked a treat.

 

2) The BNP - The BNP won 2 MEPs because of it and people were actually getting concerned at their 'rise'. UKIP have stolen their entire protest vote.

 

3) The Lib Dems - Once seen as the protest vote against the 2 main parties, they've crashed & burnt.

 

People have voted for them because they believe in and agree with their policies.

 

Agree to an extent, but that's because they support anything that is popular.

 

It's exactly what the Lib Dems spent the previous 2 decades doing and look where that got them. I fully expect UKIP to win some seats in Parliament next year but they'll tail off when the EU gets its house in order and immigration numbers ease. UKIP played a blinder in their electioneering because they hoovered up the anti-EU vote and capitalized on the anti-main party feeling, but the more power they get, the more they'll get found out.

 

UKIP are the Lib Dems mark 2, just on the other side of the political spectrum.

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The local and Euro elections are where the opposition traditionally win convincingly.

 

UKIP's rise was predictable (they did come 2nd last time), they'll get a few MPs at the next election but they'll tail off long-term domestically at least. They've stolen the 'protest vote' and played the anti-establishment card to perfection. If in the unlikely scenario they get into any form of power however they'll go the way of the Lib Dems. All they do is support anything that is popular.

 

I'll admit that I'd rather have the Chuckle Brothers running the country than Miliband & Balls but Labour were unconvincing at best. They should have been a solid 5 percentage points clear of the Tories but were only marginally ahead in both elections.

 

For the Tories it went 'ok'. Nothing more, nothing less. UKIP have clearly stolen voters but they'll be pleased being so close to Labour.

 

Green - Did pretty well but they are riding the crest of the anti-fracking vote at the moment.

 

Lib Dems - Completely found out

 

BNP - Just LOL. They managed to crash & burn even with a huge surge in extreme-right voting

 

The mid-term Council elections, or bye-elections are the vehicle for people to register their protest votes. I'm surprised that you bracket the major national election poll which is the European elections to those other ones. And surely you realise the significance of votes going to a party which is Euro-sceptic in an election for MEPs? This isn't quite the same as electing people to represent you on the local council or even at County level, where even then only a proportion of seats is up for grabs. It isn't the same as the election of a small handfull of MPs in bye-elections. This is a major national election of all the seats available in the European Parliament. It isn't electing a party on a basket of policy issues from a manifesto as in a General Election, the range of issues is much narrower than that, so it is extremely unlikely that somebody would switch from say a pro-Europe to a Euro-sceptic position just to register a protest vote against the main three parties.

 

The line that the main parties got a good kicking because it was just a mid-term protest vote is one that might suit them, but nobody with any sense believes that. The voters are not only sick of all three main parties, but fed-up with being fobbed off again and again when it comes to being denied a referendum on the several treaties that have changed our European membership from a trading alliance to membership of a European super state and the attendant loss of national sovereignty.

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miliband is an idiot

 

"ukip voters clearly want Europe to work better for them"

 

err, no they dont

watching his smarmy ways make you think that this country simply will not elect him as the PM

 

The sad thing is labour will probably get in by default as many won't vote for the conservatives and they are the only realistic alternative. I think if everyone is honest no one wants ed to be pm it will be bloody embarrassing.

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The mid-term Council elections, or bye-elections are the vehicle for people to register their protest votes. I'm surprised that you bracket the major national election poll which is the European elections to those other ones. And surely you realise the significance of votes going to a party which is Euro-sceptic in an election for MEPs? This isn't quite the same as electing people to represent you on the local council or even at County level, where even then only a proportion of seats is up for grabs. It isn't the same as the election of a small handfull of MPs in bye-elections. This is a major national election of all the seats available in the European Parliament. It isn't electing a party on a basket of policy issues from a manifesto as in a General Election, the range of issues is much narrower than that, so it is extremely unlikely that somebody would switch from say a pro-Europe to a Euro-sceptic position just to register a protest vote against the main three parties.

 

The line that the main parties got a good kicking because it was just a mid-term protest vote is one that might suit them, but nobody with any sense believes that. The voters are not only sick of all three main parties, but fed-up with being fobbed off again and again when it comes to being denied a referendum on the several treaties that have changed our European membership from a trading alliance to membership of a European super state and the attendant loss of national sovereignty.

 

So the fact that numerous neo-Nazi parties made enormous gains in their respective countries was purely because that's what those people believe in?

 

The last UK government to win a European election while in government was 30 years ago, and that was just after Maggie kicked the Argies out of the Falklands.

People always think the Euros are a less relevant election and always use them to send a message against the domestic government at the time, especially with the PR voting system in place

 

It's why the National Front won the French euro election, and why various neo-Nazi/extreme-right parties throughout Europe like Jobbik, the Freedom party and Golden Dawn (parties which make UKIP look socialist) made enormous gains in their respective countries. The populations were voting against their respective governments, not for the political parties they voted for. It's the same over here except UKIP are more mainstream. UKIP have grown steadily since the 1990s but Farage has got it spot on for them over the last few years.

 

UKIP spent their entire election campaign pretending to be anti-establishment and playing for the anti-main party/protest vote. Labour and the Tories then made the mistake of attempting to demonise them and played right into their hands.

 

Europe needs massive reform and UKIP capitalized on it. Fair play to them and to Farage. But to say they didn't win as a result of any protest votes when their whole election campaign was based on "let's create an earthquake in the UK political establishment" is just plain wrong.

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So the fact that numerous neo-Nazi parties made enormous gains in their respective countries was purely because that's what those people believe in?

 

The last UK government to win a European election while in government was 30 years ago, and that was just after Maggie kicked the Argies out of the Falklands.

People always think the Euros are a less relevant election and always use them to send a message against the domestic government at the time, especially with the PR voting system in place

 

It's why the National Front won the French euro election, and why various neo-Nazi/extreme-right parties throughout Europe like Jobbik, the Freedom party and Golden Dawn (parties which make UKIP look socialist) made enormous gains in their respective countries. The populations were voting against their respective governments, not for the political parties they voted for. It's the same over here except UKIP are more mainstream. UKIP have grown steadily since the 1990s but Farage has got it spot on for them over the last few years.

 

UKIP spent their entire election campaign pretending to be anti-establishment and playing for the anti-main party/protest vote. Labour and the Tories then made the mistake of attempting to demonise them and played right into their hands.

 

Europe needs massive reform and UKIP capitalized on it. Fair play to them and to Farage. But to say they didn't win as a result of any protest votes when their whole election campaign was based on "let's create an earthquake in the UK political establishment" is just plain wrong.

 

The fact that several neo-Nazi parties made gains in Europe doesn't have much bearing on whether the UKIP vote was or wan't a mid-term protest vote against the Government over here. UKIP isn't an extremist party (much as the left-leaning establishment would like to label it as such) and those that are extremist like the BNP, did poorly over here. As you say, UKIP have certainly benefited from the three main parties attempting to demonise them, and they will benefit still further if they attempt to ignore the support that UKIP has garnered by dismissing it (as you do) as some mid-term protest vote blip.

 

UKIP spent their entire election campaign debating the issues that concerned the voting public, not attempting to be anti-establishment. Those issues are our loss of sovereignty and unfettered immigration from the EU block, as well as the long overdue need for a referendum on our membership. I suspect that those other countries who voted for those extremist parties, did not have a more moderate equivalent like UKIP to vote for, so their votes can indeed be construed as a protest vote. They are countries that have a history of extreme revolution as a means to political change, whereas we don't, so as I say, their situation cannot be bracketed to ours in an effort to prove your point.

 

You do the average British voter a great disservice by believing them of considering these European elections as of minor importance to them and worthy only as a vehicle to register a protest vote. That might have been the case in the past, but the situation has moved on substantially since then, with subsequent Treaties tying us ever closer to European Union without asking us through a referendum whether we want it, immigration spinning out of control and the ever increasing loss of our ability to control our own affairs, legally and financially. That the Government and opposition will be forced to make changes to their manifestos for the General Election next year as a result of this election is testament in itself to the fact that it represented much more than a protest vote which can explained away in the terms you use.

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Don't think the vote is going to make much difference .the general election is the only one what matters to most people and at the moment based on marginal s it looks like a labour win.don't forget ukip did well at the last euro election and there vote collapsed when it came to the general election .

 

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The local and European elections have become more about sending a message to the big political parties or government than they are about voting in democratically elected individuals. The local/European elections ARE a protest election, and is a different kettle of fish to a general election. As for who voted for UKIP in protest

 

1) Labour & the Tories - UKIP spent their entire election campaign pretending to be anti-establishment and it worked a treat.

 

2) The BNP - The BNP won 2 MEPs because of it and people were actually getting concerned at their 'rise'. UKIP have stolen their entire protest vote.

 

3) The Lib Dems - Once seen as the protest vote against the 2 main parties, they've crashed & burnt.

 

 

 

Agree to an extent, but that's because they support anything that is popular.

 

It's exactly what the Lib Dems spent the previous 2 decades doing and look where that got them. I fully expect UKIP to win some seats in Parliament next year but they'll tail off when the EU gets its house in order and immigration numbers ease. UKIP played a blinder in their electioneering because they hoovered up the anti-EU vote and capitalized on the anti-main party feeling, but the more power they get, the more they'll get found out.

 

UKIP are the Lib Dems mark 2, just on the other side of the political spectrum.

Yes, but which protest vote did they steal? People have voted for who they want to represent their views on Europe ultimately.

 

And the point that they support popular views, well that is what successful parties usually do, that 's why they're popular and people vote for them.

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National Front getting 25% of the vote in France to become the largest party. Sarkozy saying he wants to reform the Schengen (open borders) treaty and slim down the EU.

 

 

As I've told you all on several occasions the French are just hacked off with their successive governments and the totally incompetent Hollande in particular. They are fed up with having 5 million unemployed, with a third of the population on 850£ a month take home minimum wage although the employers pay three times that at the end of the day. They are fed up with droves of veiled women hanging about on every market place and shopping mall, doing nothing and getting more in benefits that those doing 40 hour weeks and they want out of Europe because they're hacked off about Brussels (and the Germans) telling them what to do.

Edited by Window Cleaner
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Don't think the vote is going to make much difference .the general election is the only one what matters to most people and at the moment based on marginal s it looks like a labour win.don't forget ukip did well at the last euro election and there vote collapsed when it came to the general election .

 

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You are talking about the last European Elections in 2009 when the political landscape was very much different to today's because we had the lame-duck Brown Labour administration. Since then, there has been the change of administration bringing the Con / Lib-Dem pact, the breaking of the election manifesto promises to hold a referendum during this Parliament, Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants allowed across our border and several other significant changes. But if you wish to consider that none of that mattered to the electorate, and that none of UKIP's success will translate into an increased vote in the General Election, then go ahead and believe it.

 

As for the marginal seats, UKIP now represent a fourth force in British politics, at least until a referendum is held on our European membership. The potential for them to pick up seats in these marginals and for tactical voting to deny the other parties gains is significantly increased. Labout might end up with the highest number of seats, with UKIP holding the balance of power. They could then form an alliance with the Conservatives, replacing the Lib-Dems. Unless Labour gives a clear pledge to hold a referendum on Europe in their next manifesto, then they will lose ground to UKIP in their traditional heartlands, as they have in the European Elections.

 

I very much doubt that the Conservative and Labour hierarchies are taking the same view as you, that normal service will be resumed in a General Election. I suspect that they are currently bricking it, and the Lib-Dems are facing meltdown to a smaller rump than they are now, quite possibly being overtaken as the third party.

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Lol your the one with the agenda.

Still at this rate you (UKIP) might get one mp in fifty years time.

 

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The Guardian: In a worry for the Conservative plan to break the Ukip momentum in the Newark byelection in a fortnight, the Conservatives trailed Ukip in Newark in the European election by two points, a sign that Ukip could yet get its first MP shortly.

 

This is really going to make you look incredibly silly if it happens, isn't it?

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You are talking about the last European Elections in 2009 when the political landscape was very much different to today's because we had the lame-duck Brown Labour administration. Since then, there has been the change of administration bringing the Con / Lib-Dem pact, the breaking of the election manifesto promises to hold a referendum during this Parliament, Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants allowed across our border and several other significant changes. But if you wish to consider that none of that mattered to the electorate, and that none of UKIP's success will translate into an increased vote in the General Election, then go ahead and believe it.

 

As for the marginal seats, UKIP now represent a fourth force in British politics, at least until a referendum is held on our European membership. The potential for them to pick up seats in these marginals and for tactical voting to deny the other parties gains is significantly increased. Labout might end up with the highest number of seats, with UKIP holding the balance of power. They could then form an alliance with the Conservatives, replacing the Lib-Dems. Unless Labour gives a clear pledge to hold a referendum on Europe in their next manifesto, then they will lose ground to UKIP in their traditional heartlands, as they have in the European Elections.

 

I very much doubt that the Conservative and Labour hierarchies are taking the same view as you, that normal service will be resumed in a General Election. I suspect that they are currently bricking it, and the Lib-Dems are facing meltdown to a smaller rump than they are now, quite possibly being overtaken as the third party.

I heard this all before with the formation of the sdp .ukips vote was down 5% on the last council elections on a very low turnout and based on key marginal seats labour are on course to win the general election. I suspect ukip will lose half of there protest votes at the general election.have seen nothing to suggest that will change in my opinion.

 

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I heard this all before with the formation of the sdp .ukips vote was down 5% on the last council elections on a very low turnout and based on key marginal seats labour are on course to win the general election. I suspect ukip will lose half of there protest votes at the general election.have seen nothing to suggest that will change in my opinion.

 

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So if UKIP retain half their votes come the General Election, they could well play a part in deciding who is elected.
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So if UKIP retain half their votes come the General Election, they could well play a part in deciding who is elected.

 

I agree but sadly I think it will hurt the conservative vote harder and let labour win by default.

 

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I agree but sadly I think it will hurt the conservative vote harder and let labour win by default.

 

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I wouldn't bother yourself about Labour, unless they have a sudden change of leadership. Default or not, they won't be elected under Ed Miliband. If they'd done the obvious thing and got his brother in, it would have been a different story, but I suspect that is the long term plan anyway and that they didn't really want to win the upcoming election.

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Nigel's job now is to put some flesh on the bones of other policies and sell them to the public. He's managed to shows clearly that you can't have control of immigration whilst being in the EUSSR , he now needs to ensure the country are made aware of other constraints membership brings as well as highlighting the democratic deficit at the heart of this failed experiment. Domestically he needed to shows that policies such as grammar schools and lower tax for all, as well as slashing foreign aid can improve the life of the working man. There is a place for a right of centre working mans party , which the Tories can never be.

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A very interesting election.

 

Highlights have to include seeing the smear campaign utterly fail, Rees-Mogg kissing UKIP arse in hope of a pact, fake Romanians, Nick Clegg's attempt to be the big Euro man and present the pro-EU case and the almost complete destruction of the Liberal Democrats in the polls. Coincidence?

 

Too early to confirm, but this election looks like it could be important in changing the landscape of British politics. The Lib Dems are finished; undone by their own promises, some masterful stitch-up work from the Tories and Nick Clegg.

 

Aptly, looks like UKIP are going to use the Ashdown approach of targeting 20 or so seats in the general. It'll be interesting to see where they aim. I've always assumed they'd go for the key marginals, and I'm sure that'll still happen, but they've also got an opportunity to cut into safe Tory seats, judging from the MEP data.

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People have voted for them because they believe in and agree with their policies.

 

What policies are they then? Anyone know apart from leaving the EU? People certainly haven't voted for them because of their 'policies' and the only party offering a definite OUT of Europe only managed 28% of the vote. More than other individual party granted but where you've only got one policy, it's clear that the majority have voted against it. Doesn't seem to me that the majority like their one policy to me.

 

Indeed the prevalence of the far right in Europe, including in GB should be a frightening development for any right minded person.

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What policies are they then? Anyone know apart from leaving the EU? People certainly haven't voted for them because of their 'policies' and the only party offering a definite OUT of Europe only managed 28% of the vote. More than other individual party granted but where you've only got one policy, it's clear that the majority have voted against it. Doesn't seem to me that the majority like their one policy to me.

 

Indeed the prevalence of the far right in Europe, including in GB should be a frightening development for any right minded person.

 

This

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What policies are they then? Anyone know apart from leaving the EU? People certainly haven't voted for them because of their 'policies' and the only party offering a definite OUT of Europe only managed 28% of the vote. More than other individual party granted but where you've only got one policy, it's clear that the majority have voted against it. Doesn't seem to me that the majority like their one policy to me.

 

Indeed the prevalence of the far right in Europe, including in GB should be a frightening development for any right minded person.

 

Depends on how right your mind is, I guess. Far right minded people probably love it.

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Depends on how right your mind is, I guess. Far right minded people probably love it.

 

I realised what I'd said after I'd posted it but couldn't be bothered to change it. Thought I might get away with it but should have known better :-)

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What policies are they then? Anyone know apart from leaving the EU? People certainly haven't voted for them because of their 'policies' and the only party offering a definite OUT of Europe only managed 28% of the vote. More than other individual party granted but where you've only got one policy, it's clear that the majority have voted against it. Doesn't seem to me that the majority like their one policy to me.

 

Indeed the prevalence of the far right in Europe, including in GB should be a frightening development for any right minded person.

 

This

 

Both of you seem to be treating this as if it happened for no reason.

 

Some could argue that the emergence of far right parties has been fuelled by the EU and its policies. The far right in Greece certainly never enjoyed the recent popularity they did until the EU imposed austerity.

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Both of you seem to be treating this as if it happened for no reason.

 

Some could argue that the emergence of far right parties has been fuelled by the EU and its policies. The far right in Greece certainly never enjoyed the recent popularity they did until the EU imposed austerity.

 

Some could argue that the far right always does well in times of hardship and recession. Let's just hope the economies of Europe improve quickly to dissipate this threat until the next recession.

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Some could argue that the far right always does well in times of hardship and recession. Let's just hope the economies of Europe improve quickly to dissipate this threat until the next recession.

 

The crash in Greece could only have happened because of the EU. Institutions lent to them knowing that they couldn't pay it back, but the EU would bail them out. The EU then imposed austerity and suspended democracy. There have been reports of perfectly fit but penniless parents putting their kids into state care because they can't afford to keep them.

 

Superb illustration of the EU's priorities. Greece can starve as long as the bankers get paid, and they can't vote for anything else.

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The crash in Greece could only have happened because of the EU. Institutions lent to them knowing that they couldn't pay it back, but the EU would bail them out. The EU then imposed austerity and suspended democracy. There have been reports of perfectly fit but penniless parents putting their kids into state care because they can't afford to keep them.

 

Superb illustration of the EU's priorities. Greece can starve as long as the bankers get paid, and they can't vote for anything else.

 

Yep, it's all the EU's fault that Greece borrowed more than they could afford.

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It certainly looks as if they were the go to party of protest.

 

It would be interesting to see where the Lib, BNP and Tory votes went.

 

Lib Dems went to Labour, some student vote left for Greens in May 2010 and hasn't returned, assume some protest voters went to Ukip as well

BNP votes went to Ukip

Tory votes went to Ukip (50% of Ukip voters ex-Tory) and some to Labour as part of normal flow from government to opposition in mid-term elections

 

That's what I've gleaned, anyway.

Edited by DuncanRG
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Its more than that, its fraud. Previous Greek governments actually lied to the EU about levels of debt, tax receipts and public spending.

 

Yes but it's easier for people to blame to EU to help their bolster their blinkered view of the EU. It reminds me of the Life of Brian quote 'What have the Romans ever done for us'.

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It is the EU's fault that they can't print sh!t loads of money to help the situation though - like we did.

 

Nah. They could have kept the Drachma and stayed in the EU, the Greeks chose not to for their own ends. No-one made them. The Greek people have been screwed by Greek politicians who were elected by Greek voters who rewarded those politicians with the most outlandish promises.

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Yep, it's all the EU's fault that Greece borrowed more than they could afford.

 

Nope, just partially.

 

The EU is entirely responsible for decisions thereafter though. It acted in the interests of central banks and the IMF over the needs of EU citizens. Still, that's alright, innit? As buctootim says, they misrepresented their fiscal position, so the kids are alright*.

 

* in the bankrupt state care system

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What policies are they then? Anyone know apart from leaving the EU? People certainly haven't voted for them because of their 'policies' and the only party offering a definite OUT of Europe only managed 28% of the vote. More than other individual party granted but where you've only got one policy, it's clear that the majority have voted against it. Doesn't seem to me that the majority like their one policy to me.

 

Indeed the prevalence of the far right in Europe, including in GB should be a frightening development for any right minded person.

People have voted for them because they want us to leave the EU and regain control of our own borders. That is quite clear to see. It has been a popular and successful policy, even if you happen to disagree with it. Edited by Sour Mash
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People have voted for them because they want us to leave the EU and regain control of our own borders. That is quite clear to see. It has been a popular and successful policy, even if you happen to disagree with it.

 

People voted for them because they played the immigration card brilliantly. They've been ballsy and tapped a cord with a big section of society.

 

The Greens also want a referendum etc but didn't play the immigration card and the results are there for all to see.

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People voted for them because they played the immigration card brilliantly. They've been ballsy and tapped a cord with a big section of society.

 

The Greens also want a referendum etc but didn't play the immigration card and the results are there for all to see.

Partly that and partly the Greens didn't shout loudly enough; apart from on here I have heard no mention of the Green's stance. If they made a big play of it in something as crucial as a European Election, it might have woken people up to alternatives - UKIP on the other hand made it abundantly clear what their position on EUrope was.
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Bennett was on Daily Politics constantly the past few months, she even bragged that they would treble their meps. Wiggy offered her a bet, but having lost £10 to him in last years local elections (when she said they would beat ukip..lol) she declined. All this guff from the greens about being ignored is moonshine. They came 4th as opposed to ukips first because ukip are more in tune to what the country wants.

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Interesting with all the fuss over various sections of the UKIP party, no mention of of Martina Anderson being re-elected in Northern Ireland. At lease she hasn't made some politically incorrect comments in the past though :?

 

Perhaps had Nigel wanted to blow up British troops rather than control our border, the metropolitan elite wouldnt have smeared him quite so much.

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Bennett was on Daily Politics constantly the past few months, she even bragged that they would treble their meps. Wiggy offered her a bet, but having lost £10 to him in last years local elections (when she said they would beat ukip..lol) she declined. All this guff from the greens about being ignored is moonshine. They came 4th as opposed to ukips first because ukip are more in tune to what the country wants.

 

No, there not, they just played a blinding hand and hats off for the way it was played.

 

Long term UKIP supporters obviously have a strong anti-EU agenda but only an idiot would pretend the anti-immigration message wasn't what woo'd so many new voters.

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Interesting with all the fuss over various sections of the UKIP party, no mention of of Martina Anderson being re-elected in Northern Ireland. At lease she hasn't made some politically incorrect comments in the past though :?

 

She's SF, would we really expect anything else and, if I'm really honest, does anyone this side of the water even know who she is or gives a f**k what she says? It's as if so many forget that NI is even part of the UK.

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She's SF, would we really expect anything else and, if I'm really honest, does anyone this side of the water even know who she is or gives a f**k what she says? It's as if so many forget that NI is even part of the UK.
I'm sure most don't know or care, just demonstrating the hypocrisy of those kicking up a fuss about some historical poor taste comments from UKIP when we as a nation electing such individuals as Anderson.
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