Realistic Values KD, Drew & Adam

[TijuanaTim]

Okay, so we accept there maybe considerable interest in these three excellent performers. In that case, where should we dig our heels in...baring in mind every player at every club has a 'sell-on' threshold.

 

I would guess.

 

3.25 mil for a decent, reliable 'keeper (that has been getting a lot of practice tbf)

2.75 mil for Surman, a player that clearly would be better with his discipline, ability to play within himself and calmness, in the Prem.

2.5 mil for Adam, who as yet, is completely unproven - could be a gamble and flop or could be a superstar.

 

My guess is we would accept exactly half a mil less for each one, but feel we could hold out for their real value.

 

It would be a blow to lose them - however, we could do a lot with up to 8.5 big ones...oh and if Stoke are serious about 3mil for two we should tell them to get fuct.

[Andy_Porter]

0.75m for Kelvin, maybe a little bit more depending when his contract is up for renewal.

 

2.0m for Surman

 

2.5m for Lallana

[Nexstar]

1.5m for surman

 

2m for lallana

 

1.5m for kelvin

[Greenridge]

  TijuanaTim said:

however, we could do a lot with up to 8.5 big ones....

 

We could prepare for life in League 1 as I fear that would be the consequence of losing the three highlighted players.

[lordswoodsaints]

i would imagine that surman and kd are valued about the same...maybe £3m and lallana about £2m.

[Bailey]

I'd imagine Davis would be worth around 750K as his contract is up at the end of the season and he's no spring chicken.

 

IMO Drew should be worth around £2.5m but I fear we won't get anywhere near that should he leave. Here's hoping though.

 

As for Lallana, based on potential and the fact he's a young, English talent, I'd say about £3m. Once again though, I doubt we'll get that.

[aintforever]

  Bailey said:

I'd imagine Davis would be worth around 750K as his contract is up at the end of the season and he's no spring chicken.

 

IMO Drew should be worth around £2.5m but I fear we won't get anywhere near that should he leave. Here's hoping though.

 

As for Lallana, based on potential and the fact he's a young, English talent, I'd say about £3m. Once again though, I doubt we'll get that.

 

Have to agree with this, there is no way Kelvin will fetch more than 1mill.

 

I think selling Drew or Lallana now would be daft, neither are near their peak, it would be better for us, the player and the bank if we wait until at least the summer. Lallana inparticular has the potential to fetch serious cash if he keeps improving.

[saintjinksie]

  TijuanaTim said:

Okay, so we accept there maybe considerable interest in these three excellent performers. In that case, where should we dig our heels in...baring in mind every player at every club has a 'sell-on' threshold.

 

I would guess.

 

3.25 mil for a decent, reliable 'keeper (that has been getting a lot of practice tbf)

2.75 mil for Surman, a player that clearly would be better with his discipline, ability to play within himself and calmness, in the Prem.

2.5 mil for Adam, who as yet, is completely unproven - could be a gamble and flop or could be a superstar.

 

My guess is we would accept exactly half a mil less for each one, but feel we could hold out for their real value.

 

It would be a blow to lose them - however, we could do a lot with up to 8.5 big ones...oh and if Stoke are serious about 3mil for two we should tell them to get fuct.

 

 

3.25m for kelvin, u are joking right? Niemi cost less than that!!! He hardly shone on saturday did he?

[VectisSaint]

  TijuanaTim said:

Okay, so we accept there maybe considerable interest in these three excellent performers. In that case, where should we dig our heels in...baring in mind every player at every club has a 'sell-on' threshold.

 

I would guess.

 

3.25 mil for a decent, reliable 'keeper (that has been getting a lot of practice tbf)

2.75 mil for Surman, a player that clearly would be better with his discipline, ability to play within himself and calmness, in the Prem.

2.5 mil for Adam, who as yet, is completely unproven - could be a gamble and flop or could be a superstar.

 

My guess is we would accept exactly half a mil less for each one, but feel we could hold out for their real value.

 

It would be a blow to lose them - however, we could do a lot with up to 8.5 big ones...oh and if Stoke are serious about 3mil for two we should tell them to get fuct.

With respect Tijuana, these are vastly overestimated "valuations". In the current climate 1m for KD would be good business (though disastrous for the hopes of survival). Anything over £1m for Lallana would also be stretching it a bit. Drew might attract 1.5m if we are lucky, more likely less plus a makeweight (Delap, Fuller, Davies AND Higgy would do).

[hypochondriac]

  VectisSaint said:

With respect Tijuana, these are vastly overestimated "valuations". In the current climate 1m for KD would be good business (though disastrous for the hopes of survival). Anything over £1m for Lallana would also be stretching it a bit. Drew might attract 1.5m if we are lucky, more likely less plus a makeweight (Delap, Fuller, Davies AND Higgy would do).

 

Whilst I agree that the original valuations are overestimated, I believe yours to undervalue both Drew and Lallana. Lallana will certainly not go for 1 million.

[up and away]

I just cannot see that any of the players have justified these sort of fees. Lallana and Surman have the potential to easily be £5M players or more. Neither have the pace you look for in the Premier and although both are very good players, they have not even dominated in their respective playing positions. Kelvin has had a very good season, but still no where near Premier class and having crosses as your main weakness in this league is going to slow down buyers. Kelvin is a no no for the Premier and the other two are an unknown risk, on that basis I would estimate (bearing the current climate)

Davis £0.5M

Surman £1.75M

Lallana £1.75M

If we can hold onto them it's more than possible that value will go up, it's being able to afford tha option that is the problem.

[BotleySaint]

Given Kelvins age etc I can't see him being worth more than £1m max. He is worth more than that to us... but not to others. The other two would probably go for about £2.5m or maybe £2m with future add-ons based on performance etc?

[exit2]

To be honest Tim I think you are way off the mark with these, but we all know football players are worth as much as someone is willing to pay for them. But values on these?

 

 

  TijuanaTim said:

3.25 mil for a decent, reliable 'keeper (that has been getting a lot of practice tbf).

 

You only have to look at other keepers out there that have been brought / sold recently.

 

Paul Robinson cost Blackburn £3.5m

Brad Freidel cost Villa £2.5m

Richard Wright cost Ipswich £500,000

 

So compared to these GK's and the situation we are in I would say KD is valued at about £500,000

 

 

  TijuanaTim said:

2.75 mil for Surman, a player that clearly would be better with his discipline, ability to play within himself and calmness, in the Prem..

 

Drew is a difficult one. 149 league apperances, England U21, but unproven in the prem. Is he worth a gamble? Personally yes, so maybe £2m plus extras and sell on

 

 

  TijuanaTim said:

2.5 mil for Adam, who as yet, is completely unproven - could be a gamble and flop or could be a superstar..

 

29 games for us? Is feck all. So tops £1m with extras and sell on clause

[INFLUENCED.COM]

4 Mil for all three or 3.5 for AM and AS with clauses which could end up being an additional 2 Mil.

KD on season form is worth more to us than 500k so would suggest we keep him

[IronCitySaint]

  up and away said:

I just cannot see that any of the players have justified these sort of fees. Lallana and Surman have the potential to easily be £5M players or more. Neither have the pace you look for in the Premier and although both are very good players, they have not even dominated in their respective playing positions. Kelvin has had a very good season, but still no where near Premier class and having crosses as your main weakness in this league is going to slow down buyers. Kelvin is a no no for the Premier and the other two are an unknown risk, on that basis I would estimate (bearing the current climate)

Davis £0.5M

Surman £1.75M

Lallana £1.75M

If we can hold onto them it's more than possible that value will go up, it's being able to afford tha option that is the problem.

 

For once I actually agree with you - those valuations seem about right to me. Of those I think it is most likely KD will stay for the rest of the season and be released in the summer. Not much point selling your only half decent keeper for the want of half a million, especially as we would have to pay off his contract as he has not asked for a move.

[Big Ron fan]

3.25 mil for a decent, reliable 'keeper (that has been getting a lot of practice tbf)

 

LoL more than for a long time. Only bit that's correct about that is the bit in brackets.

 

More likely valuations:

 

KD free. Plenty better in CCC and his wages will be relatively high.

 

AS £1.5m

 

AL £1m plus add-ons

[Eddie Moliano]

Although the above valuation of Davis is far too high, at 32 I would hardly say he's old for a goalkeeper.

[Stu Man Do]

Personally I think AL is a bit overated by many on here ... 2 million plus? have a word he hasnt even performed as well as Drew this season. Drifts in from his wide position, loses the ball lots and seems to faff around to a great extent.

 

I see it this way

 

KD - 1 million tops hes not going to be going for much more than we brought him certainly

AS - 2.5 million - 3 million saying that if Ledley is supposedly worth 6 million drew isnt far short of him and IS scoring goals this season (5 so far)

AL- I think we'd be lucky to take anything near 2 million for him as he is no doubt seen as a gamble by any top flight side e.g. not ready yet with no guarentee he would push on.

[Micky]

I personally think that the valuations are probably way over the odds, I really cannot see us getting anywhere near 8.5 million for those players - 3 is nearer the mark.

 

More importantly though, what would happen to any money that we do get for them. I can see most of it being funnelled into the 'debt stream' in order to keep the bank happy and not a lot used for buying new players. Worrying thought.

[s0108787]

  Stu Man Do said:

Personally I think AL is a bit overated by many on here ... 2 million plus? have a word he hasnt even performed as well as Drew this season. Drifts in from his wide position, loses the ball lots and seems to faff around to a great extent.

 

I see it this way

 

KD - 1 million tops hes not going to be going for much more than we brought him certainly

AS - 2.5 million - 3 million saying that if Ledley is supposedly worth 6 million drew isnt far short of him and IS scoring goals this season (5 so far)

AL- I think we'd be lucky to take anything near 2 million for him as he is no doubt seen as a gamble by any top flight side e.g. not ready yet with no guarentee he would push on.

 

And no guarantee that he would go to be in a reserve team

[krissyboy31]

  Big Ron fan said:

3.25 mil for a decent, reliable 'keeper (that has been getting a lot of practice tbf)

 

LoL more than for a long time. Only bit that's correct about that is the bit in brackets.

 

More likely valuations:

 

KD free. Plenty better in CCC and his wages will be relatively high.

 

AS £1.5m

 

AL £1m plus add-ons

 

We really are doomed if we let those 3 go for a total of £2.5M.

 

I'd say £450k for KD, £2.5M for AS and £2M + add-ons (that Lowe will probably cash in early if past form is anything to go by) for AL.

[Saint Bones]

Well one thing Mr Lowe does do reasonably well is get a decent price on our sold players. Mind you the bank probabaly has more say then anything.

 

If KD goes we could be in some serious grief, Bart in the wings but KD has been in great form.

 

If we can get 5 mill for both Surman and Lallana i'd be chuffed. If we didnt sell anyone i'd be over the moon.

[Danbert]

  Big Ron fan said:

3.25 mil for a decent, reliable 'keeper (that has been getting a lot of practice tbf)

 

LoL more than for a long time. Only bit that's correct about that is the bit in brackets.

 

More likely valuations:

 

KD free. Plenty better in CCC and his wages will be relatively high.

 

AS £1.5m

 

AL £1m plus add-ons

 

Some very strange valuations on here. The above seem about right to me. Anyone remember how much we paid for KD not so long ago? It wasn't 3.25m

[INFLUENCED.COM]

[quote=krissyboy31;137422

I'd say £450k for KD, £2.5M for AS and £2M + add-ons (that Lowe will probably cash in early if past form is anything to go by) for AL.

 

Think you will find Lowe does not have form for cashing in early, it was the previous board that made those decisions or was it the board previous to that which was still after Lowe had gone before he came back on the current board which still has members of the previous board or.......................

[krissyboy31]

  INFLUENCED.COM said:

Think you will find Lowe does not have form for cashing in early, it was the previous board that made those decisions or was it the board previous to that which was still after Lowe had gone before he came back on the current board which still has members of the previous board or.......................

 

If I remember correctly, he criticised the previous adminitration for cashing in on Walcott and then did exactly the same with Bale when he returned.

[derry]

Davis is out of contract at the end of the season, to save his high wages I would suspect a free transfer.

 

Surman is the most ready to leave, but his fee would depend on the terms. If it was money up front that would considerably lower the fee, if appearance related etc could be considerably more. I would think we would require the former.

 

Lallana is not ready and I suspect knows it. He would be looking at reserve football for the forseeable future whilst he learns how to make the best of what he has got. A fee for potential only. I doubt he will want to go.

[WATERSIDEIFASAINT]

It should be £3 million for Surman,£3 million for Lallana and £2 million for Davis.If the premiership want our top players they should have to pay over the top.If Birmingham rate Mcfadden at £18 million we should play hardball and get top prices for our players.

 

We will no doubt also be offloading Rasiak,John,Saga,Skacel and Euell in Jan to reduce the wage bill so we can hold out for better prices on the above 3 if they go.

[Scummer]

My view (real value first, what I expect us to sell for in brackets).

 

Davis £1m (£0.5m)

Lallana £3m (£1.5m)

Surman £3.5m (£1.5m)

[Scummer]

  WATERSIDEIFASAINT said:

If the premiership want our top players they should have to pay over the top.

 

We aren't in a position to do that financially. It's more likely that we will have to take whatever we are offered.

[Big Bad Bob]

I'm sorry, but at the mo, KD is priceless, we should do everything to not sell him..

[londonsaint1604]

I just wonder how much difference it would even make if we sold, for instance, Kelvin, Drew and Lallana for £5m. We got a fair bit for Baird, Jones, Bale and Walcott recently and we're still in loads of debt. £5m, or even a bit more, for 3 important players doesn't seem worth it.

[Micky]

  WATERSIDEIFASAINT said:

It should be £3 million for Surman,£3 million for Lallana and £2 million for Davis.If the premiership want our top players they should have to pay over the top.If Birmingham rate Mcfadden at £18 million we should play hardball and get top prices for our players.

 

We will no doubt also be offloading Rasiak,John,Saga,Skacel and Euell in Jan to reduce the wage bill so we can hold out for better prices on the above 3 if they go.

 

Unfortunately market forces do not work like that. None of the players that we are touting are 'must have' for any other club out there. It is more a 'must sell' scenario and therefore the vultures will gather and pay bottom dollar - not top.

 

Look at how we had to cash in early on Theo in order to try and get some money into the club - nothing has changed since then (only for the worse). We are hardly in a strong bargaining position to any Premier league teams.

[Chez]

essential that Saga and Stern are offloaded/loaned as soon as the window opens to strengthen are bargaining position. If those two look likely to stay then Lowe will have to take whatever is offered.

[Harry Faz]

  Chez said:

essential that Saga and Stern are offloaded/loaned as soon as the window opens to strengthen are bargaining position. If those two look likely to stay then Lowe will have to take whatever is offered.

 

Absolutely, what we get for these players will depend on what our needs are - if we dont need to sell (having satisfied Barclays that the wage bill is sustainable in the short term) then Rupert can play hardball.

 

If we need to sell because the wage bill is unsustainable ( ie Barclays will be putting pressure on us) then we will have to get what we can.

 

Everyone in football knows we are in the financial sh1te, which will mean that they will attempt to get our players at a bargain price.

 

The game of poker will then begin - and although Rupert has many many faults, he does have a good record for getting good value for our players.

[AussieDog]

I'm sure this has probably been mentioned elsewhere, but I tend to only skim alot of the threads because they are too depressing! - but with interest rates falling, has that helped our financial position at all? Does anybody know what sort of figures we might be looking at now? Maybe we aren't in such a desperate position to sell!

[S4INT]

Looking at those valuations I have to think that we'd be mad to sell any of those players for those amounts. Especially Kelvin, he's really useful for us at the moment and worth more than what we'd sell him for...

But I can never work out how screwed financially we really are (but I would imagine it's fairly serious)

[L1Minus10]

Davis - £500k tops

Surman £1m rising to £2m tops

Lallana £2.5m rising to £3.5m if he plays 100 times for England