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Malaysia Airlines plane missing


melmacian_saint

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Seeing as the 777 is pretty much the main Long-Haul plane these days it is gonna be a worry until they find out what went wrong.

 

Think I am right in saying that only 2 have gone down so far and both on runways or near as dammit.

 

Thoughts with everyone on the plane & their families of course.

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Statistically its got to be the 2nd safest aircraft ever made and the cruise is also the safest periods of flight, so this is quite a shocking incident. Especially as Malaysia is hardly a third world country any more and I would expect the pilots and maintenance to be relatively good. I just hope foul play isn't involved, it would be very bad for the industry.

Edited by Lighthouse
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Its all very wierd how quickly it went missing, all the data suggested it was cruising at 35k feet then just disappearing.

 

Read in the Fail that one of the FLight Tracker sites showed it "plummet" 200m before it went off the radar.

 

SE Asia does have an in-ordinate amount of turbulent air/thunderstorms so that is one possibility but really unlikely in this day and age

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Read in the Fail that one of the FLight Tracker sites showed it "plummet" 200m before it went off the radar.

 

SE Asia does have an in-ordinate amount of turbulent air/thunderstorms so that is one possibility but really unlikely in this day and age

 

That reminds me of the Air France plane. Terrible.

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Apparently weather was likely not a factor in the disappearance as the skies were pretty much completely clear between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing. The sudden loss of communications is also another clue that whatever distress the plane encountered was not weather related.

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Read in the Fail that one of the FLight Tracker sites showed it "plummet" 200m before it went off the radar.

 

SE Asia does have an in-ordinate amount of turbulent air/thunderstorms so that is one possibility but really unlikely in this day and age

 

I doubt that is correct. Flightradar24 is the best flight tracker on the web and the path on there ends well before the flight's last known position.

 

Clear air turbulence isn't going to bring down a 777, it would have to have flown into the core of a thunderstorm cell and I think Malaysian pilots would have enough experience of the weather in SE Asia not to do that. If I had to speculate I would say it was caused by a structural failure/poor maintenance, terrorism or a mid-air collision or shoot down, which authorities are yet to admit.

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If I had to speculate I would say it was caused by a structural failure/poor maintenance, terrorism or a mid-air collision which authorities are yet to admit.

 

Probably any of these three. Not sure what could have shot it down from 35k feet.

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Probably any of these three. Not sure what could have shot it down from 35k feet.

 

Very recently a Mozambique airplane flying across Southern Africa also came out of the sky (33,000 ft if I'm not wrong) and into the ground. Most thought it was a similar accident to the AF plane (structural failure/terribly wrong execution of normal flight procedure) until they found the black boxes and realized that the pilot had committed a murder-suicide.

Checked the records and the man had lost his child and was going through a damaging divorce process. Apparently locked himself in the cockpit.

 

I'm sure there will be authorities looking into these options. 40 minutes into a 6-hour flight is not a long time, it's possibly not an AF situation but a B777 needs more crew than an Embraer so I don't think it's the Mozambique situation either.

 

Either way I pray for them and the families. What a horrible situation.

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Probably any of these three. Not sure what could have shot it down from 35k feet.

 

There are plenty of surface-to-air missiles out there which can reach that altitude. It's highly unlikely one would be fired in an area with commercial air traffic but possible and similar accidents have happened before. I believe there was one in the Black Sea about 10 years ago.

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Very recently a Mozambique airplane flying across Southern Africa also came out of the sky (33,000 ft if I'm not wrong) and into the ground. Most thought it was a similar accident to the AF plane (structural failure/terribly wrong execution of normal flight procedure) until they found the black boxes and realized that the pilot had committed a murder-suicide.

Checked the records and the man had lost his child and was going through a damaging divorce process. Apparently locked himself in the cockpit.

 

I'm sure there will be authorities looking into these options. 40 minutes into a 6-hour flight is not a long time, it's possibly not an AF situation but a B777 needs more crew than an Embraer so I don't think it's the Mozambique situation either.

 

Either way I pray for them and the families. What a horrible situation.

 

Nope. 2 each.

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There are plenty of surface-to-air missiles out there which can reach that altitude. It's highly unlikely one would be fired in an area with commercial air traffic but possible and similar accidents have happened before. I believe there was one in the Black Sea about 10 years ago.

 

An American Aegis Destroyer "accidentally" downed a scheduled Iran Air A310 (or 300) some years ago thanks to complete lack of communication or brains on board so does happen

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An American Aegis Destroyer "accidentally" downed a scheduled Iran Air A310 (or 300) some years ago thanks to complete lack of communication or brains on board so does happen

 

USS Vincennes shot down an A300 it mistook for an Iranian AF F14. Was on it's way to DXB actually.

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There are plenty of surface-to-air missiles out there which can reach that altitude. It's highly unlikely one would be fired in an area with commercial air traffic but possible and similar accidents have happened before. I believe there was one in the Black Sea about 10 years ago.

 

 

Was there not a case just the other day of a N.Korean missile test "nearly" hitting a Chinese passenger flight. Nearly is probably an exageration though, they tend to use that definition if the two flying objects are in roughly the same area at roughly the same time.

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Was there not a case just the other day of a N.Korean missile test "nearly" hitting a Chinese passenger flight. Nearly is probably an exageration though, they tend to use that definition if the two flying objects are in roughly the same area at roughly the same time.

 

I think i read there was a 20 minute gap between the missle and aircraft.

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I'm not sure about the NK missile incident but it wont have been them involved this time, even if it is a missile. The aircraft was nowhere near Korea, it would be like the Finns shooting down an aircraft over Portugal.

 

 

I think we knew that, just citing a recent case of a "near miss". Can't see it being a shoot down myself, area isn't really a conflict zone.

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I think we knew that, just citing a recent case of a "near miss". Can't see it being a shoot down myself, area isn't really a conflict zone.

 

Yeah, fair enough. It is highly unlikely but countries test missiles all the time, even in peace time, so it's possible.

 

Another possibility is poorly packaged cargo causing a fire or explosion, similar to an accident involving a South African 747 which crashed into the Indian Ocean. A fire would probably have given the crew some time to declare a mayday and attempt an emergency landing, so that's less likely.

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My company wet leased an aircraft to Malaysian, I found them pretty good. The 777 had a problem with fuel icing, don't know whether it's been sorted, As for communications it's not European cover. Used HF a lot if we could get anybody to answer, I found the Vietnamese a pain in the arse on RT. It may be there was no coverage as they were reported 150 miles off Vietnam coast. Malaysia is predominately Muslim so I would have thought there would have been little threat.

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I understand the Malaysian authorities are extending the search area because there are indications that this aircraft may have turned around before it disappeared off the radar. This is odd because if the Boeing 777 involved was effected by some technical problem then you would expect the crew would also have had enough time to transmit a radio message to that effect.

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Interesting comment on one of my FB pal threads on this. No idea if true or if the poster is in Aviation Maintenance.

 

Apparently reports that this same plane had recently had some maintenance due to a small mishap where it had some damage to a wing.

 

No, I have no source for that, but opens another possibility which would then make the stolen passport theory very odd

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Interesting comment on one of my FB pal threads on this. No idea if true or if the poster is in Aviation Maintenance.

 

Apparently reports that this same plane had recently had some maintenance due to a small mishap where it had some damage to a wing.

 

No, I have no source for that, but opens another possibility which would then make the stolen passport theory very odd

 

Correct, it hit the tail of an A340 a while back. Any repairs would have been rigorously inspected though, I'd be highly surprised if that proved to be the cause.

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It has been reported that two passengers who were listed on the plane's manifest - an Italian and an Austrian - were not actually on the flight but had had their passports stolen in the past two years in Thailand.

 

Sounds a bit suss.

 

People onboard with stolen passports. Doesn't fare well. This is the start of one big story building here.

Malaysia and Indonesia , two big muslim countries. Hmm.

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People onboard with stolen passports. Doesn't fare well. This is the start of one big story building here.

Malaysia and Indonesia , two big muslim countries. Hmm.

 

I understand this logic, but why would Malaysians/Indonesians bomb their own airline? Surely if they had some kind of point to prove they would've bombed a US/European airline and not one of their own?

 

Personally I think this could've been something to do with the wing. The plane that went down had its wing damaged in a previous accident in 2012 when it collided with another plane when turning onto the runway, personally I think they botched the repair and this is what caused the accident.

 

Here's a link to FlightRadar24's live track of the plane and when it dissappeared off the GPS for those interested:

 

http://www.flightradar24.com/2014-03-07/16:46/12x/MAS370/2d81a27

Edited by BlakeySFC
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Correct, it hit the tail of an A340 a while back. Any repairs would have been rigorously inspected though, I'd be highly surprised if that proved to be the cause.

 

I would agree with you in 99.9999% of all cases.

 

And then you get into the world of last price contracts.

 

I still think from the VERY few facts and trends at the moment that the most plausible outcome is connected to the recent problems in China.

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I would agree with you in 99.9999% of all cases.

 

And then you get into the world of last price contracts.

 

I still think from the VERY few facts and trends at the moment that the most plausible outcome is connected to the recent problems in China.

 

Any repair carried out would have to be approved by Boeing and inspected by their specialists. I'm fully aware of the effects of airline cost cutting on maintenance but a broken wing just isn't something you would f**k with. Airliners have crashed in the past after bodged repairs. A Jumbo went down in Japan once after a repaired bulkhead blew out mid flight and took the tail off. Since then though, maintenance has been massively improved.

 

Sadly, my money is on bomb, although the idea of one getting through an modern 1st world airport like KUL sends a shiver down my spine.

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Correct, it hit the tail of an A340 a while back. Any repairs would have been rigorously inspected though, I'd be highly surprised if that proved to be the cause.

 

I agree.

 

I seem to remember however there was a incident many years ago in Japan when a JAL 747 had its aft fuselage pressure bulkhead repaired after a 'tail scrap' mishap during landing. The repaired section subsequently failed in flight and destroyed the flight controls to the tail resulting in the loss of the aircraft and nearly all aboard her.

 

But today's outstanding civil aviation safety record depends in large part on the industry learning from past mistakes such as that unfortunate Japanese example. I understand all structural repairs are now performed by, or under the close supervision of, the original aircraft manufacturer and to the very highest standards possible. A repaired airliner should in effect be as good as new.

 

Never say never I suppose, but it would be a major surprise if the recorded minor wing tip damage this aircraft suffered has played any significant part in its loss.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_123

Edited by CHAPEL END CHARLIE
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Sadly, my money is on bomb, although the idea of one getting through an modern 1st world airport like KUL sends a shiver down my spine.

A terrifying thought. :uhoh:

 

Anything in particular that points you towards terrorism rather than pilot or aircraft failure?

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Apparently it has transpired that two of the passengers were travelling on stolen passports

This doesn't appear to be a particularly uncommon occurrence in that part of the world, and could simply relate to illegal migration rather than anything terror-related. According to the BBC, when an Air India plane flying from Dubai crashed, killing 158 people, 10 of the passengers were travelling on fraudulent passports.

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The two passengers with the stolen passports had consecutive ticket numbers, bought from the same place. Plus the search has moved to the Malacca Strait - the opposite direction to destination point. Sounds more like a hijack than a bomb to me.

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A terrifying thought. :uhoh:

 

Anything in particular that points you towards terrorism rather than pilot or aircraft failure?

 

There have been at least two "terrorist" related incidents in China in the past week or so one of the regions wants to succeed hence the crazy knife rampage and something at Tianamen Sq.

 

Reading today that an Al Qaeda group have apologised and blamed faulty training for blowing up innocent kids in Beirut http://7daysindubai.com/militants-apologise-beirut-suicide-blast-women-children-killed/

:mcinnes:

I'd put a fiver on a related failed hijack or screwed up timing on a bomb more than O would on mechanical/repair failure. But with SE Asia being a basket case waiting to happen, could be anything.

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A terrifying thought. :uhoh:

 

Anything in particular that points you towards terrorism rather than pilot or aircraft failure?

 

The location (politically) and the fact that it disappeared suddenly with no distress calls. The airline and aircraft involved would pretty much rule out most other causes. I know a lot of people who fly the 777 for Emirates and it is a fantastic piece of machinery.

 

It would take a monumental failure to bring down a 777 in the cruise (the safest part of flight) with little or no warning to the pilots. A major structural failure is possible but the amount of safety built into the design, manufacture and maintenance of a modern Boeing aircraft is incredible. Operated by a fairly reputable airline in a developed industrial country like Malaysia, I just can't see it.

 

Pilots would probably be eating breakfast by then. In the cruise there is very little to do other than check fuel and answer ATC messages. The autopilot is flying the plane and if that gets disconnected there is a very loud audible siren which is impossible to miss. It's not impossible one of them brought down the plane deliberately, it happened with an Egypt Air 767 off the coast of New York in the 90s. When they recovered the black box one of the pilots was heard praying loudly to Allah whilst the other was out taking a wizz IIRC.

 

If it was a collision with a military jet, I think the media would know by now and the authorities would know pretty much exactly where the incident took place. It could be an accidental shoot down and cover up I guess but there's no evidence of that.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576641/Terror-fears-missing-777-grow-Identities-ANOTHER-two-passengers-probed-suspicion-falls-four-booked-Chinese-airline.html

 

[h=1]Did Missing Malaysia flight DISINTEGRATE at 35,000 feet? Search team find what they believe is part of plane door and tail as Interpol probes claims four people boarded using stolen passports[/h]

  • Search team finds what it believes is part of a door and a plane's tail

  • Authorities say at least two people were travelling on stolen passports
  • Interpol said its database with information about them wasn't checked

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576641/Terror-fears-missing-777-grow-Identities-ANOTHER-two-passengers-probed-suspicion-falls-four-booked-Chinese-airline.html#ixzz2vVT2Lqbo

Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

 

Last line is interesting

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The location (politically) and the fact that it disappeared suddenly with no distress calls. The airline and aircraft involved would pretty much rule out most other causes. I know a lot of people who fly the 777 for Emirates and it is a fantastic piece of machinery.

 

It would take a monumental failure to bring down a 777 in the cruise (the safest part of flight) with little or no warning to the pilots. A major structural failure is possible but the amount of safety built into the design, manufacture and maintenance of a modern Boeing aircraft is incredible. Operated by a fairly reputable airline in a developed industrial country like Malaysia, I just can't see it.

 

Pilots would probably be eating breakfast by then. In the cruise there is very little to do other than check fuel and answer ATC messages. The autopilot is flying the plane and if that gets disconnected there is a very loud audible siren which is impossible to miss. It's not impossible one of them brought down the plane deliberately, it happened with an Egypt Air 767 off the coast of New York in the 90s. When they recovered the black box one of the pilots was heard praying loudly to Allah whilst the other was out taking a wizz IIRC.

 

If it was a collision with a military jet, I think the media would know by now and the authorities would know pretty much exactly where the incident took place. It could be an accidental shoot down and cover up I guess but there's no evidence of that.

Fair enough :toppa:

 

Regarding the bolded bit, I'm sure there was an Air Crash Investigation or Seconds From Disaster documentary covering that one on Nat Geo. Waited for the co-pilot to go for a **** and then locked the cockpit door. Bugger all anyone can do about a situation like that.

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I don't know if it's just me but I get the feeling that the relevant authorities know more than they are willing to release to the general public. In any case, an airliner has been lost with 239 people on board I hope they find out why sooner rather than later. RIP.

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The two passengers with the stolen passports had consecutive ticket numbers, bought from the same place. Plus the search has moved to the Malacca Strait - the opposite direction to destination point. Sounds more like a hijack than a bomb to me.

 

If the search has really moved that far away from the flight's set course that suggests, possibly, that the transponder could have been switched off. This doesn't make total sense though (to me at least) - wouldn't the plane still have a radar signature? And wouldn't controllers therefore have seen the course deviation?

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The transponder is the radar. SSR = Secondary Surveillance Radar

 

If it was switched off there would be no 'return' unless by a massive coincidence it was being tracked by a military ship or aircraft. It was reported to be 150 miles from land when it went missing.

 

I don't know the T7 intimately, but it's a fairly safe bet that somebody that knows what they're doing could make one disappear from radar screens that far out to sea.

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