Turkish Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 That is not really mathmatically safe in the accepted sense - ie impossible, mathmatically - but who cares. We've been safe since New Years day. We've got as much chance of going down as Man United. I fully expect to be lamblasted for this comment and for it be brought up again and again and again as "evidence" of how stupid i am. That's how it works on here right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 We've got as much chance of going down as Man United. I fully expect to be lamblasted for this comment and for it be brought up again and again and again as "evidence" of how stupid i am. That's how it works on here right? To be fair, Manure are over the 40 point mark and we are not so they should be safe and we are not ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 To be fair, Manure are over the 40 point mark and we are not so they should be safe and we are not ! Blackadder telegram to Charlie Chaplin "please, please, please, stop". Are you really unable to see that with 12 games to go and the bottom 3 on 24 points and under and twelve teams below Saints that we won't be caught by enough teams to send us down even if we lose every remaining game and stay on 39 points? Surely you are more intelligent than that? For your own sake I hope you are on a pointless windup rather than actually believe it! Although as you repeat this nonsense every single year that in itself is also a concern. Do you get a kick out of bites you get? Like the one I've just given you. Just give it up ffs and be positive in a golden spell for your club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearsy Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 golden spell ended jan MLG, we're more in this phase now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 Agree entirely, but it's an interesting point. There must be some way of feeding all remaining fixtures into an equation, with all possible outcomes, and ending with a final minimum points figure which would guarantee safety regardless of what else happens. I'm hopeless at maths, maybe we should ask Bletch It can be solved in excel using the "solver" add in... It would require some time on someones part and little bit of know how, but shouldn't be too difficult. Ultimately, you would have input all remaining fixtures, then set the solver to maximize the value of the 18th placed team and allow it to auto compute the results. (Not that the table would obviously fluctuate with each permutation so the objective would simply be to maximize the cell value for points at league position 18. You'd have to do some look ups to make the league table function. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 Blackadder telegram to Charlie Chaplin "please, please, please, stop". Are you really unable to see that with 12 games to go and the bottom 3 on 24 points and under and twelve teams below Saints that we won't be caught by enough teams to send us down even if we lose every remaining game and stay on 39 points? Surely you are more intelligent than that? For your own sake I hope you are on a pointless windup rather than actually believe it! Although as you repeat this nonsense every single year that in itself is also a concern. Do you get a kick out of bites you get? Like the one I've just given you. Just give it up ffs and be positive in a golden spell for your club. Oh come on, I was not really being serious, surely you could see that ! As for being positive, read around I am positive but there many who are not at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 Yes, I know. Thats why I say mathematically. Mathematically they would continue the same win ratio. So pretty much useless though in asking the question are we statistically safe ie no permutations in which we could go down on 39pts As evry team can potentially gain a further 36pts I am sure that all bar 2 could pass 39pts quite easily. Tis what the bbc predicter was for if anyone could be arsed, or if it still exists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 So pretty much useless though in asking the question are we statistically safe ie no permutations in which we could go down on 39pts As evry team can potentially gain a further 36pts I am sure that all bar 2 could pass 39pts quite easily. Tis what the bbc predicter was for if anyone could be arsed, or if it still exists? For all the teams below us to surpass 39 points it would mean a large number of upsets during the rest of the season. It simply won't happen as the large number of teams below us will either be taking points off each other, or facing the likes of Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton, Newcastle and Man Utd in their remaining 12 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 For all the teams below us to surpass 39 points it would mean a large number of upsets during the rest of the season. It simply won't happen as the large number of teams below us will either be taking points off each other, or facing the likes of Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton, Newcastle and Man Utd in their remaining 12 games. Yes, we know. The likelihood of Saints going down this season is on a par with the likelihood of my mrs going down on me when it isn't my birthday. However, I'd have thought that at least you, being the resident statto, would see some interest value of taking all remaining fixtures and working out the number of points required statistically to stay up (fnarr fnarr) regardless of any combination of results. In fact, it had occurred to me that clubs might already use such a system when deciding on whether/when to sack their managers during the course of a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearsy Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 he's an enigma - if you told MLG it's still statistical possible to win the league he'd be all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Balls Posted 21 February, 2014 Share Posted 21 February, 2014 So, anyway.... West Hams view Seems they find us calling Jay Rodriguez "JRod" embarrassingly childish, yet they blow bubbles at their games. Right then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr X Posted 22 February, 2014 Share Posted 22 February, 2014 So, anyway.... West Hams view Seems they find us calling Jay Rodriguez "JRod" embarrassingly childish, yet they blow bubbles at their games. Right then. Oh the irony of advert with a Mj chimp in it next to your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Who? Posted 22 February, 2014 Share Posted 22 February, 2014 Are people really still talking about being safe.... OMG! Let just see if we can get 6th. Everton and Man U fail to win today and we pick up 3 points, it will look back on! COYR!!!! Oh and for your information and you may not like it, but Nolan is West Ham's best player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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