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How far can we go?


Crab Lungs
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Seriously, just how far can we go, assuming we keep our squad fit/free of suspension for the rest of the season AND next season, if we add 2,3 quality players - can we realistically challenge for a Champions League spot or dare I say it, a title tilt?

 

No, I haven't gone mad - neither do I believe that we will (though it is possible, yet remote and fanciful). The only reason I ask is that in other countries, seemingly smaller/similar sized clubs have managed to challenge the bigger sides and achieve it against all the odds in recent seasons (Villarreal, Celta Vigo, Deportivo La Coruna, Osasuna, Real Sociedad, Montpellier, Lille, Bordeaux, Nantes, Twente, Heerenveen, Vitesse, Bayern Leverkusen, Freiburg, Wolfsburg, Parma, Udinese, Palermo, Sampdoria, Genoa etc).

 

Obviously, some of the above could be pure flukes with no show or promise of sustained success (think Osasuna or Palermo qualifying for the Champions League qualifying rounds or Montpellier beating moneybag rivals Marseille and PSG to the title). As wonderful as it was, they never maintained the dizzying heights - some, in fact did more than struggle. Deportivo, and Celta Vigo both done time in the Segunda (like Villarreal), as have Nantes in France whilst in Italy, Sampdoria, Parma and Genoa dovetailed divisions during the 00's.

 

However, some clubs have made qualification for European football against the odds on a regular basis - the likes of Villarreal, Leverkusen, Udinese and Lille have always been there or thereabouts. Sure, some are more decorated than others but it's clubs of a similar stature, and similar size to us that have in other leagues achieved what we aim to do.

 

It could be argued the financial climate and competition in their respective divisions are far more favourable than ours in the Premier League. Serie A is no longer the powerhouse it once was and anything beyond Barcelona and Real Madrid in recent years could be considered a Champions League potential. In France, it's started to develop into a two-horse race with the re-emergence of Monaco after years of differing champions (Nantes, Lille, Lyon, Marseille, Montpellier) and the Bundesliga is now completely sewn up barring catastrophe by Bayern Munich.

 

That said, clubs have still achieved what was deemed the impossible in recent seasons; Villarreal became regular CL competitors, Twente beat off the predictable three big dutch clubs and Udinese have regularly overcome the big northern Italian powehouses.

 

Can we seriously, honestly challenge the monopoly of the Premier League by the "Big 6" or have we almost reached our "glass ceiling" - as someone else so aptly put it on another thread?

 

Over to you...

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If we keep finding gems like Lovren and we bring players through of the standard of Bale/Chamberlain/Walcott/Shaw/Lallana then yes. But we'll need an awful lot of luck (and money) to achieve that. And we also need players to stay rather than going to the biggest clubs. Can we potentially? Yes. Will we? I doubt it...

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I don't think we can as I don't think we'll be able to keep key players together for long enough to create a charge. Our other issue will be FFP which maintains the status quo and is another barrier to entry.

 

However, if a circumstance exists where several clubs have an off season we could always pounce - that said, it seemed this season is ideal and we're just going to fall short from the strength of our squad rather than the strength of our team.

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The FFP is a big hurdle IMO and not a very fair rule as it is.

 

Saying that if we might add 3 players every year of the same or better quality as this season we might have an opportunity. But it will take at least another two year cause we have the "problem" of quick success meaning we have players on contract that are far from top PL class and they have wages so high due to bonuses from promotions that other teams wont come in for them unless they take a paycut and many players aren´t prepared to do that and those we need to offload is 27 or older so cant really blaim them I guess.

 

We need to finish close to top 6 to also keep our own best players so they see the progress of the club and that it will be achievable, otherwise I think some of the best players will leave and while we might make a profit and buy new players it´s better to always keep the core of a team together for several years.

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Had a conversation with a villa supporting mate who reckons that many clubs get close, but are always just a couple of players short of making the step up. To get close you need top quality players, but these will go for the lure of champions league football, money, and dare I say it the money available to their agents for arranging a top move.

 

Unless you get very lucky with timing, injuries and form, (or a ridiculous cash injection like citeh and Chelsea) it's nigh on impossible to make the breakthrough for a sustained period. We are on the cusp, and just a couple of players short, but will we get those players before the lure of bigger and better things turns the heads of lovren, Clyne, shaw, lallana et al. I'd love to believe we will buck the trend but have my doubts unfortunately. Cortese and povcchetino themselves could also be susceptible to this. I'm enjoying this season for what it is - the best in 10 years, and second best for probably 25, and I can dare to dream ... But I am a realist at heart.

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As we have had confirmed to us in the last couple of months, the requirement for a squad with strength in depth is essential.

Even consistently good clubs like Tottenham or Everton have got in the top four once but not been able to sustain the challenge the following season.

Existing big clubs will always get the better players so the only way of fulfilling Mr Cortese's dream is to get the young players in or via the academy and then work with them as they mature.

It is an interesting project and I am happy to watch it unfold, as until Cortese came along, my ambitions for the club extended no further than winning the annual relegation dog fight.

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