Matthew Le God Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 (edited) How does a "rolling league table" work? - Take the nine 2013/14 games played for Saints so far. - Look at how they compare with the corresponding games in 2012/13. - For example Saints lost at Liverpool last season 1-0, but this year Saints won at Anfield so Saints are given +3 points. - Add all them up and Saints are +14 points better off this season than from the 9 corresponding games last season. What about the promoted/relegated teams? - You swap the results of the promoted sides with that of last seasons relegated sides. - Swapping Wigan for Cardiff, Reading for Hull and QPR for Palace How does the projection part work? - Man Utd got 89 points in 2012/13, they are -8 points down on the corresponding fixtures in 2013/14. Which gives them a projection of 81 points. - Saints had 41 points in 2012/13, they are +14 points up on the corresponding fixtures in 2013/14. Which gives them a projection of 55 points. Although it has its flaws as a projection, I quite like it and as the season progresses the projection should become more accurate after each game. Edited 28 October, 2013 by Matthew Le God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Why are United projected 81 points? Or am I reading it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 28 October, 2013 Author Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Why are United projected 81 points? Or am I reading it wrong? They got 89 points in 2012/13, they are -8 points down on the corresponding fixtures in 2013/14. Which gives them a projection of 81 points. Saints on the other hand had 41 points in 2012/13 and have 14 more points in 2013/14 from corresponding fixtures so their current projection is for 55 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 They got 89 points in 2012/13, they are -8 points down on the corresponding fixtures in 2013/14. Ah ok, so it's based on teams getting the same results in their remaining fixtures. That part is a bit meaningless then really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 28 October, 2013 Author Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Ah ok, so it's based on teams getting the same results in their remaining fixtures. That part is a bit meaningless then really. Well its a projection based on similar data from last season. I think it is quite a good projection and becomes more accurate with each result. Hence the "rolling" part of the thread title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wes Tender Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Why are United projected 81 points? Or am I reading it wrong? Who knows how to read that? I certainly can't see how it is concluded that those teams will finish in those positions based on the preceding stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 (edited) They got 89 points in 2012/13, they are -8 points down on the corresponding fixtures in 2013/14. Which gives them a projection of 81 points. Saints on the other hand had 41 points in 2012/13 and have 14 more points in 2013/14 from corresponding fixtures so their current projection is for 55 points. so what is being projected is as if they would now pick up as many points as they did in the last 29 games last season...yeah right. Unless the green table is last seasons final 29 games and this season's first 9. Edited 28 October, 2013 by Window Cleaner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucks Saint Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Assumes teams who have been very different to last year, up to now (eg Saints, Man U etc) will revert to performing identically to last season starting from today. Hard to forecast without a crystal ball but this is meaningless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Interesting that Arsenal got 27 points from their corresponding fixtures last season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 So it's if the league ran from exactly 12 months ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrant Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 So it's if the league ran from exactly 12 months ago? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintrich Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 We seem to have done really well compared to the same fixtures last season, but it will be hard to replicate the home wins against Liverpool, Man C, Chelsea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 It's quite interesting viewing and I could see the final table looking similar, but it doesn't really extend the current level of performance over the season. Mlg, if you have time what would it look like if you did that, so to explain if manure are -8 over 9 games, they'd be -32 over 36 games (times each by 4). Completely pointless speculation but fun all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 We seem to have done really well compared to the same fixtures last season, but it will be hard to replicate the home wins against Liverpool, Man C, Chelsea. Ah but we still have Cardiff (ie wigan) at home to catch up a few points should we not win those 3, you could say that WBA won't tonk us at home either on this year's form so that's more points we can make up fairly easily,idem norwich at home unless we play Gazza to gift them a goal or two that is. Just last year's form plus our good start plus those 3 games would see us on somewhere around 60+ points wthout improving on results like Sunderland and Fulham away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 No. I believe i've got it now, thanks to MLG for spelling things out clearer in the key beneath. A 'rolling' 12 months from point to point would be interesting for me. Can understand the logic of doing it fixture to fixture mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 A great analysis. I can see the logic but we all know that football is never that easy to predict, which is what makes it such an enthralling sport to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torrent Of Abuse Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 If it shows nothing else then it shows how much the rest of the league has reeled in ManU and how we have surged out the pack of the lower teams and are headed up the table to challenge for that top 7, 6, etc. Be interesting to keep this up to date so we can see ManU be "knocked off their perch" so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sotonist Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Although it has its flaws as a projection I quite like it and as the season progresses the projection should become more accurate after each game. a bit like the actual league table. pointless statto porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 28 October, 2013 Author Share Posted 28 October, 2013 a bit like the actual league table. pointless statto porn. But unlike the actual league table it projects what things might be like at the finish, using previous data of similar events last year to fill in the blanks of the remaining 29 games in combination with what we know from the opening 9 games. All harmless fun. Cheer up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leslie Charteris Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 I think it's a pretty good measure of current form rather than a predictor of the final table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 But unlike the actual league table it projects what things might be like at the finish, using previous data of similar events last year to fill in the blanks of the remaining 29 games in combination with what we know from the opening 9 games. All harmless fun. Cheer up. I think I'd rather base them on similar events from this year, to be honest. Smaller sample but probably going to be more accurate with nearly a quarter of the season gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctoroncall Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 a bit like the actual league table. pointless statto porn. Indeed, I think if someone shows the points total for each team across many seasons that will indicate the variability and see if this type of projection is in any way indicative or jerk off material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 It's nice to see just how much worse than the TERRIBLE QPR that Palace are though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 How would the league table look if it only included goals scored between the 23rd and 69th minute by players born in any contient other than Europe that dont have the letters T, Q, R, L, I, P or N in their first or surnames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 28 October, 2013 Author Share Posted 28 October, 2013 It's nice to see just how much worse than the TERRIBLE QPR that Palace are though. They might take Derby County's record of 11 points in 2007/08 at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 It's nice to see just how much worse than the TERRIBLE QPR that Palace are though. but after the 1st 9 games last season QPR actually had less points than Palace do today. 3 for QPR and 4 for Palace, mind you QPR had had some pretty rough fixtures by then last season, Citeh,Chelsea etc; They'd not won a single game in 9 which is why Hughes got sacked I guess. So there are 2 ways of looking at it from Palace's point of view, either they're roughly the same as QPR and are bound to go back down or that they have the same number of points as we did from 10 games last season and we stayed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sotonist Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 I think I'd rather base them on similar events from this year, to be honest. Smaller sample but probably going to be more accurate with nearly a quarter of the season gone. who's going to volunteer to apply this system to each of the last ten premier league seasons and compare the projection after 9 games with the final tables? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sotonist Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 who's going to volunteer to apply this system to each of the last ten premier league seasons and compare the projection after 9 games with the final tables? And update it every week. also i've no idea why I quoted the9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delboy Dave Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Im confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpb Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Hard to believe that from the corresponding fixtures last year we didn't get a single win - just 4 draws and 5 defeats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 28 October, 2013 Author Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Im confused About anything in particular? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Balls Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Good to see. I like that Arsenal are actually doing worse than they did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Good to see. I like that Arsenal are actually doing worse than they did last year. good point, that would in fact mean that against the 9 opponents they've had so far they won them all those games last season. Whereas this season they got beaten at home by Villa and only drew with West Brom away. The test for the Arse will be when they get their usual mid-season injury crisis as they would seem to have tougher opponents mid term this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrant Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 I like the like-for-like result comparison, but the "projection" is meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tajjuk Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 We seem to have done really well compared to the same fixtures last season, but it will be hard to replicate the home wins against Liverpool, Man C, Chelsea. Yeh but we also lost at home to Wigan and QPR for example to catch up points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eelpie Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Who knows how to read that? I certainly can't see how it is concluded that those teams will finish in those positions based on the preceding stats. The most it can ever be a realistic stat will be when we have played all teams once at the half way stage (even though we are unlikely to have played everyone home or away exactly as last season.) And we have the toughest part of the half yearly programme of matches to come, including against some of the top clubs. Also we have been lucky with injuries to date and it would not be unrealistic to expect our fast tempo style to eventually take its toll (but I hope not). So probably (imho) an eigth end of season position is not an unrealistic proposition. We may well climb the table to even higher than 3rd for short spells but I still consider eighth the benchmark to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SO16_Saint Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 I'd like to think that we will end up on 76 points this season.....based on 2 points per game season to date Sent from my GT-N5110 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Of the 9 fixtures, five -liverpool (a), fulham (h), wba (a), swansea (h) and sunderland (h)- were under NA. This season, we've bettered all those results with a +11 point differential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxford_lou Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 About anything in particular? I found that interesting. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 I like the like-for-like result comparison, but the "projection" is meaningless. It's not really a projection though is it? Using that word is a bit of a red herring. It's the actual points earned in the most recent 38 games played against our 19 opponents once each at home and away. So every week that figure is subject to change as the newest game gets added but the previous matching fixture gets removed. Taken as a snapshot it's not particularly relevant but followed weekly it'll give a good insight to who is improving (that'll be us then) and who's going the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 It's not really a projection though is it? Using that word is a bit of a red herring. It's the actual points earned in the most recent 38 games played against our 19 opponents once each at home and away. So every week that figure is subject to change as the newest game gets added but the previous matching fixture gets removed. Taken as a snapshot it's not particularly relevant but followed weekly it'll give a good insight to who is improving (that'll be us then) and who's going the other way. No that's wrong. The next fixture is vs stoke and we drew 3-3 last year, so if we win our "projection" goes up to 57, if we draw it stays at 55 and if we lose it drops to 24. As the season goes on, it gets more and more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Damn, can't edit, 24 should read 54...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 So despite their stuttering start to the season, Man United are going to win the league anyway, because of all those games they won last year under their previous manager. Well done them. What a fantastic projection. Statto nonsense almost biblical in its pointlessness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 28 October, 2013 Share Posted 28 October, 2013 Lol and now I have re-read your post wurzel and you say the same as me, sorry, just turned 40, brain misfiring...carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 29 October, 2013 Share Posted 29 October, 2013 Interesting to see comparisons with equivalent fixtures from last year. The projection for end-of-season points tally is absurd though. I think even if we won 15 games in a row, we'd still be projected to finish only 6th or 7th. If Man Utd lost their first 23 games, they'd still be projected to stay up comfortably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 29 October, 2013 Share Posted 29 October, 2013 (edited) Which website is this from or is it generated by the OP? Like for like comparisons is interesting but as others say projection is not. As we are averaging 4.5 times as many points as last season the projection shpuld show we get 184 pts this season which I think might beat the record. I think would be better to just have points after same number of games as well regardless of opposition although meaningless for promoted sides. Same bores ripping into what is a fair discussion topic. Fck knows this place is repetitive enough (as are some posters) so anything like this is welcome. Edited 29 October, 2013 by whelk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
positivepete Posted 29 October, 2013 Share Posted 29 October, 2013 Thanks MLG. It is standard business practice to measure sales or margins on a rolling 12 months or moving average total. It has the advantage of making trends far easier to track especially in sales where particular months have traditionally higher or lower sales. I had been keeping the same record for Saints this year to see how we were doing against my prediction of 55 points this season. At this rate I will be well out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joensuu Posted 29 October, 2013 Share Posted 29 October, 2013 I think this chart has far more merit than people are giving it. The 'projection' isn't accurate (no projection ever is), but it is better than many considering it is based upon your last 1-2 results against each team. As such this is a bit like saying this is what will happen if every team reverts to the form of last season. From a saints perspective that's pretty impressive, as half of our last season we were in the relegation zone. So essentially this chart tells us where we might end up if our recent form flags, and we spend 10 games playing like relegation candidates. In other words, because we've exceeded last seasons form, to finish in the 'projected' final position would actually need quite a collapse in our current form. To me that's both interesting and reassuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 29 October, 2013 Share Posted 29 October, 2013 I think this chart has far more merit than people are giving it. The 'projection' isn't accurate (no projection ever is), but it is better than many considering it is based upon your last 1-2 results against each team. As such this is a bit like saying this is what will happen if every team reverts to the form of last season. From a saints perspective that's pretty impressive, as half of our last season we were in the relegation zone. So essentially this chart tells us where we might end up if our recent form flags, and we spend 10 games playing like relegation candidates. In other words, because we've exceeded last seasons form, to finish in the 'projected' final position would actually need quite a collapse in our current form. To me that's both interesting and reassuring. I come on this forum to read repetitive over-reactionary personal jibes, not this rational and pragmatic nonsense thank you very much! FFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 29 October, 2013 Share Posted 29 October, 2013 Thanks MLG. It is standard business practice to measure sales or margins on a rolling 12 months or moving average total. It has the advantage of making trends far easier to track especially in sales where particular months have traditionally higher or lower sales. Except this is not a Moving/Rolling Average. That would be simply the last 38 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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