Jump to content

Daring to dream - What would we need to do to reach the Champions League?


Colinjb

Recommended Posts

Indeed.

 

It's also quite interesting that Arsenal are actually three points worse off than they were last season in the corresponding fixtures. You'll probably be unsurprised to know that we're the most-improved team compared to last season's results, having collected 11 points instead of 2 against the same opponents.

 

dtdxQDL.png

according to The9, we have not progressed AT ALL!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need to beating the likes of West Ham & Sunderland at home and Norwich away to even have a hope in hell. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves. Whilst we won on Saturday we didn't create a great deal against the team that will probably finish bottom of the Premier League. Top 6 is more realistic but still extremely difficult, top 8 far more realistic and very doable. Think it will be between us and Everton for 7th actually. Confident that my pre season prediction of 8th will be correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need to beating the likes of West Ham & Sunderland at home and Norwich away to even have a hope in hell. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves. Whilst we won on Saturday we didn't create a great deal against the team that will probably finish bottom of the Premier League. Top 6 is more realistic but still extremely difficult, top 8 far more realistic and very doable. Think it will be between us and Everton for 7th actually. Confident that my pre season prediction of 8th will be correct.

 

basically, you think we need to win every single game?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

according to The9, we have not progressed AT ALL!!!

Aesthetically, and in terms of a gut feel of how we're playing, I'd be inclined to agree. I missed the Palace game, unfortunately, but I've seen all the others and Liverpool away is probably the only one where we've genuinely looked good. There have been spells in the other games (except Norwich where we were absolute turd from first whistle to last) but nothing yet - apart, oddly, from the results - to suggest our plan of world domination is likely to bear fruit in the near future.

 

basically, you think we need to win every single game?

That's clearly not what he said.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aesthetically, and in terms of a gut feel of how we're playing, I'd be inclined to agree. I missed the Palace game, unfortunately, but I've seen all the others and Liverpool away is probably the only one where we've genuinely looked good. There have been spells in the other games (except Norwich where we were absolute turd from first whistle to last) but nothing yet - apart, oddly, from the results - to suggest our plan of world domination is likely to bear fruit in the near future.

 

 

That's clearly not what he said.

but that is football. on form (or on paper) we should have lost away to liverpool.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

basically, you think we need to win every single game?

 

No. But the teams that finish in the top 4 will, with a few exceptions and odd shock results here and there beat those teams and win the majority of their games against the "rest of the league". Since our return to the Premier League we haven't won enough games against the sides you'd expect us to have a better chance against and relied on wins against the big boys to keep us up last season. We had a very favourable start and whilst we've had a good one, it could and should have been even better.

Edited by saints_is_the_south
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No. But the teams that finish in the top 4 will, with a few exceptions and odd shock results here and there beat those teams and win the majority of their games against the "rest of the league". Since our return to the Premier League we haven't won enough games against the sides you'd expect us to have a better chance against and relied on wins against the big boys to keep us up last season. We had a very favourable start and whilst we've had a good has been good, it could and should have been even better.

 

Teams in the top 4 have bad results too. For example we beat 2 of them last year, and gave Utd an almighty fright, and could have won against Arsenal at home (they did destroy us at their place granted).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Teams in the top 4 have bad results too. For example we beat 2 of them last year, and gave Utd an almighty fright, and could have won against Arsenal at home (they did destroy us at their place granted).

 

Which if you read my post is exactly what I said. They will have bad results and 'shock' defeats here and there, but over the course of the season they will win more games against the "rest of the league" than they don't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're probably 15-20 points off a top 4 slot over the course of a season, at a wild, early guess.

 

We'd probably need 3 or 4 truly excellent signings (internationals pretty much at their peak) and would need to be in a position where winning against the top six is seen as pretty natural rather than a shock, surprise result.

 

Quite a way off this at the moment. But wouldn't say it's impossible over the next few years. Just unlikely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll give you a sensible opinion on this after 30 games and being in the same position, not after 6.

 

Because then it'll be a sensible topic for discussion...

 

Whilst I'm glad that you admit your current opinion is not sensible, i don't know why you bothered to tell us this now if this thread disgusts you so. 24 weeks of silence from you on this subject, I can't wait.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed.

 

It's also quite interesting that Arsenal are actually three points worse off than they were last season in the corresponding fixtures. You'll probably be unsurprised to know that we're the most-improved team compared to last season's results, having collected 11 points instead of 2 against the same opponents.

 

dtdxQDL.png

 

Interesting thought but too generous IMO as you can't simply like-for-like swap the promoted/relegated teams around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed.

 

It's also quite interesting that Arsenal are actually three points worse off than they were last season in the corresponding fixtures. You'll probably be unsurprised to know that we're the most-improved team compared to last season's results, having collected 11 points instead of 2 against the same opponents.

 

Which result are you using as a substitute for the Palace game? I assume it's either Wigan or QPR who beat us at home, although we did beat Reading.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Threads like this do make me laugh, as if fans from the top ten teams don't moan like feck about their teams as well. We play crap occasionally, so do the likes of Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea. It happens.

This year the football's not so fluid but the results are coming in. It amazes me that people don't seem to appreciate the art of defence as we have the best defence in this league...

Can't have it all I guess...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

# Net Spend last 5 Years Purchased Gross Sold Nett Per Season

 

1 Manchester City £640,650,000 £163,700,000 £476,950,00 £95,390,000

2 Chelsea £390,000,000 £100,100,000 £289,900,000 £57,980,000

3 Manchester United £229,750,000 £128,800,000 £100,950,000 £20,190,000

4 Stoke City £99,825,000 £8,650,000 £91,175,000 £18,235,000

5 Aston Villa £179,600,000 £93,600,000 £86,000,000 £17,200,000

6 Liverpool £304,450,000 £220,550,000 £83,900,000 £16,780,000

7 Southampton £75,350,000 £14,600,000 £60,750,000 £12,150,000

8 Sunderland £153,630,000 £103,700,000 £49,930,000 £9,986,000

9 Hull City £41,525,000 £8,250,000 £33,275,000 £6,655,000

10 West Ham £81,850,000 £54,800,000 £27,050,000 £5,410,000

 

I think this goes some way in explaining 'what we have to do'. I am not saying money is the be all and end all, especially with our academy, however it tells its own story....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

# Net Spend last 5 Years Purchased Gross Sold Nett Per Season

 

1 Manchester City £640,650,000 £163,700,000 £476,950,00 £95,390,000

2 Chelsea £390,000,000 £100,100,000 £289,900,000 £57,980,000

3 Manchester United £229,750,000 £128,800,000 £100,950,000 £20,190,000

4 Stoke City £99,825,000 £8,650,000 £91,175,000 £18,235,000

5 Aston Villa £179,600,000 £93,600,000 £86,000,000 £17,200,000

6 Liverpool £304,450,000 £220,550,000 £83,900,000 £16,780,000

7 Southampton £75,350,000 £14,600,000 £60,750,000 £12,150,000

8 Sunderland £153,630,000 £103,700,000 £49,930,000 £9,986,000

9 Hull City £41,525,000 £8,250,000 £33,275,000 £6,655,000

10 West Ham £81,850,000 £54,800,000 £27,050,000 £5,410,000

 

I think this goes some way in explaining 'what we have to do'. I am not saying money is the be all and end all, especially with our academy, however it tells its own story....

 

Where are Arsenal in that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would be satisfied with mid-table and delighted with top half. We need more depth to challenge for top 6 and realistically we don't have the support or the money to do so. Liebherr rescued this club from a near-death experience and we're being bankrolled still but little doubt we are punching above our weight financially. I just hope we don't do a Poopey

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 Arsenal £188,200,000 £192,400,000 -£4,200,000 -£840,000

 

You have to respect what Wenger does there for sure.

 

I think he's class.

 

Does go to show it isn't all about money. Call me a shallow, sky-era plastic but hey, I'd happily take what they have done since he has been there.

 

Proves the point that it is not what you spend, it's how you spend it. I said elsewhere, until this summer their transfer record was £15m on Arshavin, in 2009 - Newcastle spent this on Shearer in 1996!

 

Sign the right players, bring through young players - even if you end up selling them, there is a good chance it will be at a profit.

 

Also, there is taking the long term view. Ok, they were in a position where they could afford to bleed youngsters to start with. But, it shows what not chopping and changing your manager and team every 5 minutes can do.

 

Not that that will make any sense to the planks that want 18 new signings every window.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think he's class.

 

Does go to show it isn't all about money. Call me a shallow, sky-era plastic but hey, I'd happily take what they have done since he has been there.

 

Wenger has been largely superb in that regard, no doubt, and what he's done at Arsenal is very impressive. However Arsenal's wage bill is considerable, even despite their supposed wage caps, which often skews the net spend table somewhat. In truth both net spend and wage bills need to be compared in tandem.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wenger has been largely superb in that regard, no doubt, and what he's done at Arsenal is very impressive. However Arsenal's wage bill is considerable, even despite their supposed wage caps, which often skews the net spend table somewhat. In truth both net spend and wage bills need to be compared in tandem.

 

It is big no doubt about that.

 

But is it really on a par with the City's, Chelsea's, Utd's who they regularly compete with? Even Spurs & Liverpool?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is big no doubt about that.

 

But is it really on a par with the City's, Chelsea's, Utd's who they regularly compete with? Even Spurs & Liverpool?

in terms of top earners they are probably far behind, but when they are paying the likes of chamakh (93kpw!!!!!!) and bendtner upwards of 50kpw (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1354689/Nicklas-Bendtner-I-deserve-50k-week-wage-Arsenal--Ive-skiing-football.html ) there probably not far behind at all, denilson who did f*ck all at arsenal was on similar as well. they had plenty of average players on mental wages

Link to comment
Share on other sites

in terms of top earners they are probably far behind, but when they are paying the likes of chamakh (93kpw!!!!!!) and bendtner upwards of 50kpw (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1354689/Nicklas-Bendtner-I-deserve-50k-week-wage-Arsenal--Ive-skiing-football.html ) there probably not far behind at all, denilson who did f*ck all at arsenal was on similar as well. they had plenty of average players on mental wages

 

That's not restricted to Arsenal.

 

didn't West Ham have people like Kieron Dyer on £80k p/w the season they got relegated?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If there's ever a chance we might sneak into the top 4 I think it would be this season. what we need is to ride our luck and not get any serious injuries to key players (can you imagine if Boruc gets an injury?), and for the traditional top 4 to carry on the inconsistency they have shown already this season. All the top clubs have had key changes and are taking time to settle.

I'm not sure why Liverpool are even classed in the same category any more. They seem to be living on past glories and alot of their squad is average to say the least.

I'm surprised at Chelsea this season as I thought bringing Mourinho back it would re-galvanise them as they seem to have quality throughout their squad but were playing as individuals not as a team.

Arsenal have started really well and have coped surprisingly well with the injuries they have already received. Ozil is absolute class, and Flamini seems to have given their midfield some defensive stability.

Spurs - well they invariably flatter to deceive. They have some awesome players but have always seemed an unbalanced side.

Man City are a bunch of individuals and when they click they are unstoppable, but so far this season they don't seem to have found any consistency.

Man Utd are just a shambles (saying that, they will probably "click" the week they play us...) and Moyes' nervousness seems to be rubbing off on the players. Massive shoes to fill.

Everton are a well-drilled unit but I don't think they have strength in depth and I really think their teamwork has seen them playing above their abilities for the past couple of years.

 

I think we could sneak 4th. Not because we are a fantastic side, but because everyone seems capable of taking points off each other.

Arsenal lost to Villa, Liverpool lost to us, Man Utd lost at home to WBA, Villa and Cardiff beat Man City.

Spurs and Chelsea appear to be the most consistent so far but I don't think anybody is going to race away and the points total for 4th place could actually be lower than in previous seasons.

 

 

Caveat. If this fails to happen in the way I have described it's because you lot don't have faith and our timelines diverge at some future point (Sliders...)

In my reality this will happen....looks like I had better start saving for my european trip next season then....Berlin 2015 anybody? :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since moving to the USA I have been very surprised by the football knowledge of some Yanks I've come across. Theres a radio station dedicated to soccer I listen to everyday and last week a football fan from New York called in to a chat show. He said he had a theory about the top four of the EPL. He had actually drawn up some kind of spreadsheet based on his theory that the teams who finish with the most points out of the mimi league of Chelsea, Spuds, Arsenal, Manure, City, and Liverpool would always finish in the top four positions irrespective of the rest of the season. This stuck in my head and I recon that the Yank is actually spot on. Its the amount of points that a team manages to win off those six teams that will dictate the end of season top four, so, if Saints really ever do have dreams of breaking into the elite, then we should look to measure how many points we take off them. I know, 3 pts away at Liverpool is encouraging, but its the real challenges that lay ahead that will get the wheat sorted from the chaff. From what I've seen so far, (thanks to NBCS), I don't fear any of the so called big six. All IMHO of course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No. But the teams that finish in the top 4 will, with a few exceptions and odd shock results here and there beat those teams and win the majority of their games against the "rest of the league". Since our return to the Premier League we haven't won enough games against the sides you'd expect us to have a better chance against and relied on wins against the big boys to keep us up last season. We had a very favourable start and whilst we've had a good one, it could and should have been even better.

 

Think it will be slightly different this year as a lot of teams have got nearer to the top 4, who have not improved as much, champions may have a few more defeats

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’d just like a season where around March time I don’t start waking at 3 o’clock in the morning analysing possible results, and how other teams performances plus our own will affect our final position at the end of the season.

 

used to think like that many years ago, thing is games become meaningless, give me the buzz of the last 3 seasons where every game counts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One goal from open play in 6 matches equals relegation form.

Only 2 goals conceded equals top 4 form

So I guess realistically at the moment we are somewhere in the middle which is an improvement but nothing to get over excited by.

How we handle the situation when the big clubs come calling for the likes of Luke Shaw will largely determine how far we can progress.

We can convince our young players that we have ambition but in the end there is always a bigger club that they would rather play for. We would have the money but it would be difficult to improve on what we have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/southampton/champions-league/news/pochettino-eyes-champions-league_109097.html

 

Southampton manager Mauricio Pochettino has revealed ambitions to reach the Champions League.

 

The Saints were tipped for relegation from the top flight last season, but managed to retain their place and launch into this campaign by taking 11 points from six matches.

 

Despite setting his sights high, Pochettino has insisted that he would not be happy competing in the second-tiered European competition.

 

"To be honest I am not keen on the Europa League," Pochettino said in a press conference. "I think we are all attracted to the Champions League.

 

"The Europa League is a competition that I don't look forward to because [if you are in it] it kind of means that you haven't been good enough to actually make it in to the Champions League, so I think all managers are aiming one step of competing in the Champions League, so it's not a competition that is attractive to me."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You dlo need to score goals I would suggest, and although it doesn't matter who scores when your centre half's are scoring nearly as many as your forwards it usually means ypu are in trouble.

 

Only if you are letting them in. How does the expression go.....

 

Goals win you games, defences win you championships.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, it was stated we would decline a place via fair play last year.

 

The problem with the Europa League is that it gives you Champions League amounts of games, requiring a larger squad, but not enough money to pay for the extra players.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only if you are letting them in. How does the expression go.....

 

Goals win you games, defences win you championships.

 

As I said in my original post the goals against suggest top 4. All I'm saying is that our start is so so, good for us but a top 4 club wouldn't think it that great. We don't yet know if the 1st 6 games will be typical of our season but projecting forward our defence needs to keep up the good work (which might be difficult against better opposition) and the forwards need to score more goals (which I think they can) if we are to maintain anything like our current 6th position.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only if you are letting them in. How does the expression go.....

 

Goals win you games, defences win you championships.

 

The danger is you become draw specialists.

 

I go to games now expecting us to draw not win (then again did I ever go to games expecting us to win)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...