The Guardian predict 14th place finish for Saints

[eelpie]

Isn't that more tactical than personnel? We should have beaten QPR and Sunderland with the players we had.

 

Not with the tactics we used.

[The9]

Its not the only way but its a surefire good way, and probably the quickest way.

 

...about half the time.

[The Kraken]

...about half the time.

 

I think you'd be hard pushed to argue that any of the signings we made last season failed to strengthen the squad (and thereby the team). Even Gazzaniga was a step up from what we already had.

[DuncanRG]

Its not the only way but its a surefire good way, and probably the quickest way.

 

It's hardly foolproof, but you're right that it's quick. It's short-sighted, however, to view personnel changes as the one deciding factor in a team's fortunes rather than one of many - transfers are just easier for fans to talk about. We don't know much about training structure, fitness, science, morale, tactics etc but we know how good certain players look in matches and what they could add to a team.

 

I think it's fair to say that a top half finish will require an improvement from all of our players and not just those who've signed recently. Pochettino will be looking for a better season from Rodriguez, Ramirez, Shaw et al - this is the thinking behind signing younger players who haven't hit their peak.

[The9]

Second Season Syndrome "SSS" tends to apply to teams who are not familiar with the Prem and have done exceptionally well in their first season dropping off, not ones which have done "ok" (eg Reading circa 2007). If we'd come 7th or 8th last season there could be a real feeling that we'd overachieved and would be lucky to have everything fall our way again - a little like people are saying about West Brom.

 

The consitituent parts of SSS tend to be

 

Reduced motivation in players from revisiting places they're now familiar with

Change in attitude and application from club's players now they're established in the top flight

Losing best players to bigger sides

Opposition familiarity with personnel and tactics

Opposition squad rotation - more likely to field top players against you, especially if you beat them last season.

Overpaying for mediocre players due to increased status and cashflow

Loss of the basics of success from the previous season (basically the above, combined)

 

How many of those are relevant, and how many other factors there are are open to question - the one good thing is that even if our new players are flops, we have the foundation of a decent side. Assuming they are still applying themselves as they were last season. The question is whether they will still get to play against the odd reserve player here and there, and if the opposition know more about what we're likely to do and counter it - we were already looking predictable by the end of last season but the signs of change were already visible too.

[John B]

Its not the only way but its a surefire good way, and probably the quickest way.

 

Very true not sure the squad is that much better than last year 12 to 16 finish with no flirting with relegation would be acceptable.

 

Dont think Cardiff Hull or Palace will make much impact

[The9]

I think you'd be hard pushed to argue that any of the signings we made last season failed to strengthen the squad (and thereby the team). Even Gazzaniga was a step up from what we already had.

 

That's much more likely to be true for a side full of Championship and L1 players than one with a year of Prem experience though.

 

By definition, the signings we made last summer would not improve the side this year, they're the same standard that we already have.

 

It becomes much harder to sign players of higher ability than you have the better you get (at least until to the point where you become attractive due to your success). There are fewer of them in the first place, and the sums involved are usually bigger, making it more of a gamble with less likelihood of success.

[The9]

Very true not sure the squad is that much better than last year 12 to 16 finish with no flirting with relegation would be acceptable.

 

Dont think Cardiff Hull or Palace will make much impact

 

I think Cardiff and Hull have both signed well, but that doesn't mean they've done enough to get themselves up to standard.

[The Kraken]

That's much more likely to be true for a side full of Championship and L1 players than one with a year of Prem experience though.

 

By definition, the signings we made last summer would not improve the side this year, they're the same standard that we already have.

 

It becomes much harder to sign players of higher ability than you have the better you get (at least until to the point where you become attractive due to your success). There are fewer of them in the first place, and the sums involved are usually bigger, making it more of a gamble with less likelihood of success.

It's a pointless argument you're making; pretty much any signing (if they play) will improve the squad. Therefore is they're ever called upon to play in the first team, the inference is naturally that they are a better option that what was available before they arrived. The first team may not be immediately improved by a signing, but the squad definitely is.

[Le Timmier]

To be disappointed or use phrases like "heads will roll" by coming 14th, just because we've spent £20m is laughable.

 

I won't disrespect your opinion by describing it as "laughable". My opinion is that if we only manage 14th place this season then MP is likely to find himself out of a job. That is what I meant when I said "heads will roll". Knowing what we do of Cortese's reputation for ruthless business decisions, I would personally be surprised if 14th is going to be good enough for him. (and if you find that view "laughable", then I want some of whatever you've had, it sounds like fun).

[Frank's cousin]

I won't disrespect your opinion by describing it as "laughable". My opinion is that if we only manage 14th place this season then MP is likely to find himself out of a job. That is what I meant when I said "heads will roll". Knowing what we do of Cortese's reputation for ruthless business decisions, I would personally be surprised if 14th is going to be good enough for him. (and if you find that view "laughable", then I want some of whatever you've had, it sounds like fun).

 

Its probable, but even NC would look at all the factors - key is that there is clear progress made, but if we are unlucky with injuries to key players etc then that would be some form of mitigation. Think we know there is a desire to progress quite rapidly, against the judgement of some of what is possible, and I do think NC is smart enough to learn from the experience we have last and this season. If it becomes clear that although we have 'progressed' and improved, so have many others therefore its relative, then he will probably need to re-evaluate the timescale for his desired success.

 

14th would be dissapointing to me, if we fail to see improvements in those areas that were identified as being our weaknesses last season.

 

But ditching MP would send out the wrong signals to me - we start to show that we are too impatient when we should also be recognising that MP is also still learning and will hopefully improve as the squad does.

 

I suspect that NC knows that the speed of progression will in part be down to how quickly the younger talents can come good and become consistent. That is a pretty much unknown factor.

[Junction 9]

I won't disrespect your opinion by describing it as "laughable". My opinion is that if we only manage 14th place this season then MP is likely to find himself out of a job. That is what I meant when I said "heads will roll". Knowing what we do of Cortese's reputation for ruthless business decisions, I would personally be surprised if 14th is going to be good enough for him. (and if you find that view "laughable", then I want some of whatever you've had, it sounds like fun).

 

Well if that's what happens then it's a sad place the club finds itself in. As has been said previously a top level striker and this whole thread changes. if we go into the season with what we have then surely it's Cortese that has failed to land his transfer targets.

If MP then got sacked for not improving on league position, when everyone around us is also strengthening their sides, it would be a poor decision. We need continuity. To take us backwards is another thing, but to maintain league position and consolidate for a year is not a disapponitment in my book.

[Le Timmier]

Well if that's what happens then it's a sad place the club finds itself in. As has been said previously a top level striker and this whole thread changes. if we go into the season with what we have then surely it's Cortese that has failed to land his transfer targets.

If MP then got sacked for not improving on league position, when everyone around us is also strengthening their sides, it would be a poor decision. We need continuity. To take us backwards is another thing, but to maintain league position and consolidate for a year is not a disapponitment in my book.

 

Yup, and I agree with you on all of that 100%. Let's be clear - my suggestion that MP will be out of a job if we do not improve on 14th is my belief about the reality of the situation. It is neither what I think should happen nor something I would support at face value.

[Sidney Fudpucker the 3rd]

One of the predictions in the Sunday papers had Saints finishing 9th. Can't remember which paper it was. Personally I think that's ambitious, as it 14th. I think Saints will be involved in a relegation battle all season.

[Smirking_Saint]

I won't disrespect your opinion by describing it as "laughable". My opinion is that if we only manage 14th place this season then MP is likely to find himself out of a job. That is what I meant when I said "heads will roll". Knowing what we do of Cortese's reputation for ruthless business decisions, I would personally be surprised if 14th is going to be good enough for him. (and if you find that view "laughable", then I want some of whatever you've had, it sounds like fun).

 

Depends on if we sign all of the targets we are going for IMO. As much as Cortese is Ruthless I think he is happy he has the right man in the role for the forseeable. A finish of anywhere between 15th to 11tg certainky woulndt be disasterous.

 

This obviously may change if we spunk another 30m or so before the end of august.

[Killers Knee]

A UK sports journo who actually knows his trade, well done that man, you got your paper a new customer. Bang on assessment as it stands today, without further injury or signing.

[studentsaint]

Hull I think have gone about their business astutely and under the radar. Huddlestone a coup, livermoore strong, graham the main man like he was at Swansea, sagbo big, strong and looking to make a name for himself. Think they may stay up with Cardiff. Palace need bent to agree to go on loan and to strengthen their defence as right now theyre in trouble.

 

Think stoke palace and Sunderland in trouble with Fulham teetering.

[DuncanRG]

A UK sports journo who actually knows his trade, well done that man, you got your paper a new customer. Bang on assessment as it stands today, without further injury or signing.

 

The daily broadsheets are generally very good. The Times is the best for football, I think.

[whelk]

Jacob Steinberg is pretty knowledgeable. West Ham fan so knows us from Championship and witnessed Fox last season at home game with QPR His personal prediction is for Saints to finish 11th

 

Guardian Football weekly is best podcast around IMO. James Richardson is a legend.

[The Outsider]

The daily broadsheets are generally very good. The Times is the best for football, I think.

 

Strictly speaking neither the times nor the guardian are broadsheets. The Times is a compact and the Guardian is a Berliner. The Sunday Times is a broadsheet however.

 

I have no reason for posting that other than Ive always wanted to do an MLG, my apologies.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/your-complete-guide-to-the-201314-premier-league-season-8764230.html

 

The independent has us finishing 8th, above swansea...I was surprised at that.

[DuncanRG]

Strictly speaking neither the times nor the guardian are broadsheets. The Times is a compact and the Guardian is a Berliner. The Sunday Times is a broadsheet however.

 

I have no reason for posting that other than Ive always wanted to do an MLG, my apologies.

 

I'm aware!

[Lazlo78]

WE expect better than 14th, much better, NC does, MP does, the players do. But just try predicting the 7th-20th places, it's ridiculously difficult to call. So many are capable of having a good season, surprising people and being comfortably top half, and most the same clubs are capable of poor form, bad management, bad luck, a few injuries and a dire relegation fight.

 

THAT is why I say Saints can finish 8th without more signings, because it's not actually an unrealistic aim for most clubs. Christ, the difference between 8th and 20th for us in 2003 and 2005 was just management and injuries. Largely similar squads.

 

And so it came to be ... I couldn't find the "where will we finish this season" poll (if there is one), so this thread will have to do until someone digs out the right one...

[richard]

Strictly speaking neither the times nor the guardian are broadsheets. The Times is a compact and the Guardian is a Berliner. The Sunday Times is a broadsheet however.

 

I have no reason for posting that other than Ive always wanted to do an MLG, my apologies.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/your-complete-guide-to-the-201314-premier-league-season-8764230.html

 

The independent has us finishing 8th, above swansea...I was surprised at that.

 

Interestingly, according to that article we lost the most points from winning positions last season. Did we do the same this year? If we could defend a lead we would be unstoppable.

[trousers]

Interestingly, according to that article we lost the most points from winning positions last season. Did we do the same this year? If we could defend a lead we would be unstoppable.

 

Its known as "keeping Wanyama fit"

[Toon Saint]

Ha, I called our final position right even though I got almost everything else wrong:

 

http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?45837-Toon-Saint-s-bumper-Premier-League-2013-2014-preview&p=1740517#post1740517

[adrian lord]

Actually the original Guardian article reads as a largely prescient and in-depth piece, in retrospect.

[VectisSaint]

Interestingly, according to that article we lost the most points from winning positions last season. Did we do the same this year? If we could defend a lead we would be unstoppable.

No, Wet Sham have lost more points from a winning position than us so far. Its a daft statistic anyway, in order to lose points from a winning position you have to be winning in the first place. Man City have lost 12 points from winning positions (compared to our 18) and they will most likely win the league. So if we manage to only drop 11 points next season from a winning position will we win the league? Nope. Crystal Palace have only dropped 6 points from a winning position this season, equal best in the league, probably because for most of the season they never took the lead in the first place until Pulis turned them around).

[Whitey Grandad]

No, Wet Sham have lost more points from a winning position than us so far. Its a daft statistic anyway, in order to lose points from a winning position you have to be winning in the first place. Man City have lost 12 points from winning positions (compared to our 18) and they will most likely win the league. So if we manage to only drop 11 points next season from a winning position will we win the league? Nope. Crystal Palace have only dropped 6 points from a winning position this season, equal best in the league, probably because for most of the season they never took the lead in the first place until Pulis turned them around).

 

Yes, to talk about a 'winning position' is nonsense. If you score in the first minute is that a winning position? To my mind a winning position is 4-0 up and 4 minutes into injury time. I've been following Saints too long to think otherwise.