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How much do you believe in stats?


georgeweahscousin
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Kickoff.co.uk did a season preview based on Saints stats from last season. What do you think?

 

http://wp.me/p1mFFL-Ax

 

 

Well, Stats that are accurate are never in doubt - more how they are interpreted. Also using historc data to predict is a difficult one. If all clubs were in exactly thye same position, same players etc no transfers its would have more merit, but even then players a year older which for some will mean more experience and others past their prime.. so whilst interesting, not sure it is a very accurate way of predicting - we could hbe twice as good as last year, but if everyone else is 3 x as good, we go backwards in relative terms ;-)

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I'm very interested in the use of statistics in football and my general position is that I like them to assess teams but not to assess players. In football I think more meaningful stats need to be found that take into account circumstance, but even then they have a long way to go as you need to work out the difference between a habit a player has and what he has been asked to do.

 

There are so many variables in football that affect what a player does (habit, ability, form, tactics, fitness, game circumstance, and other players just for starters) that I think it would be very easy to mislead people based on only being able to measure end results without knowing the full circumstance of why something happened. But in terms of teams, I find statistics to have slightly more value right now.

 

However I still think nothing can beat the naked eye for being able to conclude more appropriately.

 

Best leave it there before I bore everyone.

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Provided that the numbers have been reliably collected they cannot be argued with. However their meaning might be less clear. Their principle value is in providing some sort of objective support in an argument about the qualities of a player.

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