Toon Saint's bumper Premier League 2013/2014 preview

[Toon Saint]

With big respect to SuperMikey's super post on the HCDAJFU thread, I've had a go myself.

 

It's quite lengthy - written to distract myself from my current thesis hell - but read the clubs you are interested in, engage, ignore, debate, tear-apart, or whatever you like! Obviously based on current moves in the transfer window, and some teams are covered in a bit more detail than others, so predictions could well change by end of August.

 

Arsenal

Like United, almost impossible to judge at the moment as they've made no major moves in the transfer window. Yaya Sanogo bought in, but very much one for the future and has spent most of the summer with the victorious French U20 World Cup team. Given the well-documented sponsorship re-negotiations and Ivan Gazidis' public insistence on being able to afford players such Rooney, (this won't happen,) the fans are restless for a marquee signing and players like Sanogo aren't going to satiate that need. Rumours of £70-odd million to spend, and the signings of either Suarez or Higuain would give them a bit of 'star-dust' up front that's been missing since RVP was sold. As always with Arsenal it’s whether they actually address their priority areas. They need a midfield enforcer to marry some artisanship with the artistry of Cazorla, Wilshere, Arteta, etc. Extra cover in central defence is essential with Vermaelan injured and the future of Sagna needs resolving. If he is to leave, then another RB to compete with Jenkinson would be needed. A ninth year without a trophy would really see the pressure ratchet up on Wenger and he no longer has the (in my opinion, justifiable) excuses of financial constraints. The consistency towards the end of last season bodes well and they have one of the more gifted midfields in the league. Theo looks to be finally maturing into a reliable goal-scorer at long last, and Giroud is having an excellent pre-season. All in all, I think it’s another frustrating fourth for the Gunners but tipping them to end the trophy drought with a cup win.

 

Prediction: 4th

 

Aston Villa

Tough season for them last year, but I really rate Paul Lambert as a manager and the way in which he handled the pressure of their relegation battle. He has an eye for a bargain and seems to excel at acquiring young, hungry players with potential from the lower leagues and (relatively) untapped foreign markets. They've signed Okore, a Danish international, who should strengthen them in defense, and Aleksander Tonev, an attacking midfielder from CSKA Sofia with Europa League experience, but the big plus for them is securing the future of Benteke. Given the interest in him, it would be naïve to think he will see out his new contract there. Regardless, he is an exceptional talent and seemed to drag Villa single handed out of the mire. They are still a bit callow in midfield for me and I can see them taking the occasional hammering without further reinforcements. I'm predicting another season of skirmishing with relegation but for them to eventually finish safe.

 

Prediction: 14th

 

Cardiff

A couple of weeks ago, having signed Cornelius, and being strongly linked with Wanyama and Tom Ince it looked like it was shaping up to be a very good transfer window for Cardiff indeed. Alas, things didn't pan out as such: Cardiff couldn't match our bid offered to Celtic for Wanyama, and poor Tom Ince, browbeaten by his father, claimed new fatherhood as his 'reason' for staying at Blackpool (time will tell whether he keeps to this story). Cardiff shared the goals around a lot last season so they will hope that Cornelius can replicate his goal scoring feats in the Danish League. Bellamy will provide Premier League experience and nous, but like us last season, they will need to strengthen all areas to stand a chance. Luckily they also have got the money to spend. Home form should be decent with the racket their fans drum up, and McKay is a decent manager so I think they will scrape to safety by the skin of their teeth.

 

Prediction: 17th

 

Chelsea

Stability is the key for a sustained Premier League challenge. They have a tremendous squad with some really gifted technical players capable of playing the style that Abramovich has craved since he bought the club ten years ago, with the exciting Schurrle now added to that roster. Will the return of Jose allow this dream to be realized or will his reign be plagued by the pyrotechnics of yesteryear? Early signs suggest that as the newly-styled ‘happy one’ he is adopting a more conciliatory approach to man-management, and is willing to blood youngsters and work with what he has got this time. The signing of Rooney would add another dimension to their attack play, and the thought of him playing ahead of three of Hazard, Oscar, Mata, Schurrle, De Bruyne, and Moses, as a front four is a truly terrifying prospect. If this transfer does transpire then Mourinho would have to probably have to move on one of Torres, Ba, or Lukaku on, with the former two the most obvious casualties. But Chelsea's squad has no obvious weaknesses, and like others, I am tipping them for the title. Despite turning down the histrionics, Mourinho’s unrivalled ability to unsettle opposing managers and teams (see recent ‘second-choice player’ speech) will prove invaluable.

 

Prediction: 1st

Edited 22 July, 2013 by Toon Saint

[Toon Saint]

Crystal Palace

As always, the team who achieves promotion through the play-offs are playing catch up with the other newly-promoted teams in competing for signings, and Holloway has already confessed to having difficulty securing deals with all the new TV money sloshing around among the more established Premier League sides. That said, based on current dealings it can only be classed as a poor window from the Eagles. £8.5 million spunked on Dwight Gayle seems horrifically overpriced for a player who was playing non-league football in 2012. As Saints, Norwich, and Villa have proved recently, players acquired from the lower leagues can certainly make the step up, but despite some obvious qualities, whether Gayle is ready for the Premier League based on 13 goals in the Championship, will be a crucial in Palace’s bid for survival given the injury to last season’s top-scorer Glenn Murray and the departure of Zaha. Jose Campana, a Spain U20 international midfielder, has signed this week from Sevilla, and will fit Holloway’s ethos of open, counter-attacking, football. Jerome Thomas will also provide a decent threat from out wide, but sadly for them, it is not going to be anywhere near enough for a team that is lacking any real stand-out quality. Expecting ‘Premier League, you’re having a laugh’ to be sung by more than just Saints fans this year, Olly. Easy on the eye, but you have to feel, relegation certainties.

 

Prediction: 20th

 

Everton

Martinez is too experienced a manager to completely rip up the Moyes template in the space of a single pre-season, but I expect gradual changes to their style of play to be introduced. A switch to his favoured 5-3-2 might be a solution to their lack of pace from forward wing positions, with Baines and Coleman providing the thrust on either flanks. He’s brought in a couple of players from Wigan (Kone and Alcaraz) but I’m not convinced that they are a lot better than what they have already got. At 29 and 30, respectively, they hardly bring down the average age of a team that is one of the oldest in the Premier League. James McCarthy would be a much better addition and Deulofeu (from Barcelona) seems a bit of a coup as a loan signing. Losing Fellaini (which looks likely) would be a blow, but would also provide funds for Martinez to improve two or three positions. Keeping Mirralas fit and getting Jelavic firing again will be key for them. A top half-finish is certainly achievable, but European aspirations might take a hit in what will prove, like many clubs this season, a year of transition.

 

Prediction: 9th

 

Fulham

One of the hardest to call with the new owner coming in – which I must say was concluded ridiculously swiftly as the press had barely caught wind of it. That will give them an advantage, but Khan’s strategy in the transfer market has yet to be demonstrated, and what this does for Martin Jol’s future (as no longer the choice of the owner,) who knows? Despite the uncertainties, Stekelenburg is a top purchase as current Dutch international keeper with fantastic pedigree having played for Ajax and Roma. Their midfield needs a total overhaul though, and was only enhanced, short-term, last season, through loan-signings and free agents nearing retirement. Whether Derek Boateng – Ghanaian journeyman, aged 30 – who was signed earlier in the window is the man to reinvigorate that area is unlikely. Berbatov to provide the guile and goals to keep them safe, but not without a few scares along the way.

 

Prediction: 13th

 

Hull City

Steve Bruce, with his constant whinging post-match interviews that remind you of your nan, and his strange inferiority-complex regarding playing the ‘big boys’, for all his considerable faults, is actually quite an astute player in the transfer market. He will need to be as Hull must be one of the poorest teams to achieve promotion in recent years. McGregor, signed from Besiktas, should be reliable behind the posts, and in Figueroa and Elmohamady he has players that he clearly trusts in the full-back roles. Curtis Davies may well yet fulfil his long-mooted potential and make the step up as a consistent Premier League defender. But whether Danny Graham and George Boyd are the men to fire them to safety I sincerely doubt. They have done better business than Palace, but still, the dreaded drop seems inevitable.

 

Prediction: 19th

[Toon Saint]

Liverpool

Having lived in Liverpool for a good five years, I’ve become familiar with the sense of entitlement that seems to warp their fans expectations. Accordingly, there is lots of talk emanating from their dressing room of challenging for a Champions League spot, but I think that is slightly premature at the moment. The future of Suarez, from a Liverpool fan’s perspective, must be an infuriating sub-plot – casting a negative pall over their preseason work. At least in Sturridge they appear to have a player they can also turn to for a regular return of goals and the growing understanding between him and Coutinho (who unfortunately for us, looks to be a stellar signing) should give them plenty of room for encouragement. Rodgers, despite his cringey David Brent-isms on the recent Liverpool documentary series, is doing a good job and I expect steady improvement. Mignolet is an excellent purchase and I’m slightly surprised a CL playing team didn’t bit for him (well Arsenal, anyway). Kolo Toure? He looked a bit ponderous on the occasions he did play last year, but should provide Skrtel and Agger with decent competition. Aspas, signed from Celta Vigo, is hardly a marquee signing the fans are probably after, but seems the tenacious scurrying sort of forward that with time, they might just grow to love. The manner in which they handle the Suarez saga will be crucial, and if he is sold, I’m not sure they will be quickly bringing in a like for like replacement in terms of ability. Christian Eriksen of Ajax has been mooted and would be a cracking transfer, but aims of the CL will have to be put on hold for another season.

 

Prediction: 6th

 

Man City

All change at Citeh. New manager, new players arriving, and a new style of playing being implemented, equal for me, the clichéd ‘year of transition’. The genial Pellegrini is a far better man-manger than Mancini can claim to be, and that two of the biggest nuisances have been moved on, in Tevez and Ballotelli, should see fewer off-pitch spats and improved dressing room harmony. The signings, so far, look to be impressive but over-priced. Fernandinho has sparkled in the Europa League and Champions League for Shakhtar and as a box-to-box midfielder with considerable pace, good passing range, and a powerful shot on him, represents a significant upgrade on Gareth Barry. Navas, if he stays injury free, can provide the pace and incision on the wings that perhaps someone like Scott Sinclair was supposed to do last season. In Negredo, they have also brought in a powerful and bullish striker with a decent all-round game and scoring record, though without the consistency and ruthlessness to be considered in the world class bracket. Jovetic is probably their best signing this window. Pace, vision, great range of passing, incredible technique, wonderful dribbling skills, the fella has it all, and could light up the Premier League. He is also versatile and can be employed as attacking midfielder or centre forward, while his eye for a killer pass should take some of the creative burden off of Silva. The problem that Pellegrini will face is integrating all of these attacking players seamlessly and adapting to the unique pressures of the Premier League at the same time; the latter shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but as seen with Chelsea’s recent splurges on predominantly creative/flair players, it can take time for that to amount to a credible title challenge.

 

Prediction: 3rd

 

 

Man Utd

It’s the same old adage with Man Utd: underestimate them at your peril. Moyes has inherited a team that, arguably, over-achieved last season. It was a shame for the neutral that none of the other contenders could up their game enough to provide a half-decent challenge, because their squad, despite the departing SAF’s remarks otherwise, contains some obvious flaws. By all accounts, Carrick had a stonking season in centre-mid, but added creativity and steel is a must, as I’m not convinced the ilk of Anderson, Cleverley, a 40-year old Giggs, and long-term absentee, Fletcher, are going to plug that gap. Fabregas and Fellaini look like realistic targets, and with their obvious assets, would certainly improve their chances of retaining the title, immeasurably. Cementing a proper position for the versatile Phil Jones, who I think is hugely over-rated, would help both player and manager. Left-back and the wing positions could also come under review; Evra had a poor season last year, and Young, Nani, and Valencia, were largely underwhelming. I also don’t know how ready Zaha, gifted but raw, will be to make one of those positions his own. I think Kagawa, however, will excel in the role behind RVP. The Rooney saga obviously necessitates a conclusion, but I think even if sold and without a replacement brought in, they have enough up front with RVP, Hernandez, and Wellbeck to plunder the goals. This will no doubt be a testing transfer market for Moyes and a season in which his own performance will come under constant scrutiny. He will rise to the challenge, but I have a feeling that they will come up just short in the title race.

 

Prediction: 2nd

 

 

Newcastle

My place of residence for the last few years, and as always, disaster never seems very far away. Mike Ashley seemed to have won the locals trust back over in the last couple of seasons, but a flurry of rash decisions risk turning Newcastle’s pre-season into farce. Quite what he is attempting by bringing JFK back into the fold is anyone’s guess – though whispers are that he was stung by Pardew’s criticism of him in the press, and is attempting to force Pardew out the back door without having to pay up that bumper 8-year contract awarded only at the end of the 2011/2012 season. But what happens then? Short-termism and vanity seem to inform too many of Ashley’s decisions, despite the good work that the club have done in reducing the wage bill and Graham Carr’s excellent scouting work in France. JFK – nicknamed ‘domestos’ by staff, such is his abrasive style - is a time-bomb waiting to off (and I’m not just talking about his faulty ticker,) and I really can’t see the relationship with Pardew working. The guy is an absolute joke; puffed up on his own self-importance, a pathological liar, and seems to willingly foster a ridiculously antagonistic relationship with the press as well as his own players. It’s hardly going to convince players like Cabaye/Kebab that they should stick around. The whole furore over the Wonga sponsorship branding is also threatening the future of Cisse, one of their better players (I would definitely have him at Saints by the way). Given their fifth place finish a couple of seasons back, and some decent-ish looking acquisitions in January, you’d say that without the distractions of the Europa League to contend with, they would be looking at a top half finish, especially if they get Ben Arfa off the treatment table for long enough. But I just don’t know. I look at their team and I’m not convinced that there is actually a definite style they are attempting to play – though maybe that owes to Pardew’s pragmatism/tactical flexibility as they were certainly effective, if slightly lucky, against us at St. James’s last year. They were rumoured to be going back in for Andy Carroll at a time when they had seemed to have moved away from the more direct style employed under Hughton. Now there is talk of Darren Bent, who although would suit them better, couldn’t cut it at Villa last season. Their reliance on French-speaking imports is all well and good, but if you have a Director of Football who can’t even be bothered to pronounce their names correctly, or a sponsorship deal that is antithetical to many of their religious beliefs, then you have big problems. Hoping for the local’s sake I am proved wrong, but a season of upheaval and inconsistency beckons…

 

Prediction: 16th

Edited 22 July, 2013 by Toon Saint

[Toon Saint]

Norwich

It’s good to see that they have a bit more ambition than they let on last year, as I thought they were consistently mediocre and bordering on tedious to watch at times. They seem to have made some astute purchases this summer, with Fer, injury concerns aside, adding some much-needed creativity to the midfield, and the brilliantly named Van Wolfswinkel providing a bit of bite up front (apologies). Olsson and Garrido also improve them in the full-back positions, while Redmond will give them a direct outlet on the wings that they lacked last year. Whether he can establish himself as a decent Premier League winger will be an interesting sub-plot to their season. I think they are being talked up a little bit – and Alderweireld’s rejection suggests they might have problems attracting all the players they have been linked with – but I certainly expect improvements. With the money being spent and players signed I think Hughton will come under the microscope a bit more, and from a neutrals perspective, I hope they can play a bit more of an expansive style. For me, a steady but unspectacular season is in the offing…

 

Prediction: 11th

 

Southampton

So far, so good for the Saints. Lovren and Wanyama look to be quality signings, both young with vast potential, and plenty of big game experience already. Lovren should add guile and composure at the back, while big Vic will give us the steel and power to build upon Poch’s high-pressing, high-octane style. Both will also help us out defending and attacking corners (just need someone who can actually take them now). Importantly, we have addressed two key areas nice and early, and seem to be integrating a few of our youngsters into the squad to provide healthy competition for the first-team. I’m hoping that Isgrove can challenge for some game-time on the wings this coming season as we are a bit short there, and Turnbull and Stephens (both physically imposing for their age) look like a natural central-defensive partnership for the future, who may also be handed the odd chance to impress in cup competitions. Given our commitments to developing youth, I don’t think we should be making any more signings in defensive areas. In Shaw and Clyne we have England’s future full-back pairing, and behind them, Targett and Chambers, who are both tipped for big things. It’s important that we continue to trust in our youth system and that we don’t block the pathway with needless squad signings. Granted, we could do with another proven centre back, but unfortunately, this would have to be at the expense of Jos or Jose being moved on. There are certainly areas that are bigger priority now, such as wing positions and up front. It’s a bit of standard observation on here, but we need more pace and creativity in the side especially with us having so much possession in the oppositions half and not being able to kill games off last season. Being linked with players such as Banega, Damiao and Osvaldo is great for the club, and I’m sure we are all hoping that we can pull off another couple of ‘biggies’ before the window closes, especially in those areas that need strengthening. But fans also need to be realistic and patient. We are trying to break through a bit of a glass ceiling at the moment – similar to Man City three or four years ago, though without quite the same amount of cash sloshing about – and our reputation as a club, despite the fruits of our successful academy, is not going to be enough to tempt every big player currently on the market. A lot of this optimism (or even over-confidence) among fans is being generated by the PR of Cortese and Pochettino, who seem to be working damn hard to shift perception of the club, with talk of ‘top 4’ aspirations, and the constant iteration of being a ‘serious’ club and conducting our transfers ‘on our terms’. I would interpret some of this talk as bluster, some borne from frustration with meddling agents (clearly a thorn in the side of Cortese), but importantly, a sign of where we are looking to go as a club. Realistically, we are not going to finish close to the Champions League spots next season, but the potential and ambition at the club is scarily good, and I think, eventually, that will be realized. In the here and now, a top half finish should be well within our means. Throw in a decent cup run and I’d call that a successful season.

 

Prediction: 8th

[Toon Saint]

Spurs

If ‘Don’ Cortese has earned a somewhat silly reputation of a Mafioso in the transfer window, mercilessly batting away agents and conducting deals only on his terms (Forren I hear you say?), then Daniel Levy is the equivalent of the gunslinger on horseback, riding into town as sunset approaches, engaged in a high-stakes duel that could well end in all manner of glory or tragedy. Metaphor stretched to breaking point, Levy seems to enjoy the thrill of deadline-day dealings, those transfers that are only ratified after the window ‘slams shut’ (in Sky Sports News speak), and as per usual, ending up with zero useful strikers. Since ‘Arry was shown the exit door (and despite his protestations, we all know he loves to wheel and deal), Levy has taken steps to remedy this cavalier approach to transfers: Baldini has been brought in as sporting director to give poor AVB a helping-hand. Paulinho has been brought in quick-sharp and looks to be an upgrade on Scott Parker, offering a much more mobile presence in central midfield, an eye for a goal, and a decent aerial threat, also. Chadli, signed from FC Twente, has impressed me when I have seen him play (pacy, strong, great technique and a powerful shot), and he offers them another option on the wings where they seem to suffer from a fair few injury problems. The forward trident of Lennon, Bale, and Chadli would certainly give a few opposing managers headaches next season. The main talking point this summer will undoubtedly be whether they can hold onto Bale (I think they will for another season) and bringing in a top striker that will get them 20+ goals a season. Until they do this, and I’ve not seen them linked with too many thus far, they are going to struggle to break into that top four spot.

 

Prediction: 5th

 

 

Stoke

Mark Hughes has his detractors, and not, you might say, without good reason. I actually think Stoke as a club will suit Hughes - who has always worked well on a budget - better than the nouveau riche of QPR and Man City. He will certainly look to exploit the foreign markets more than Tony Pulis ever did. They will be robust, organized and hard to break down but attempt to play in a slightly more enterprising fashion. The problem for Hughes will be, given Stoke’s association with turgid hoof-ball and general poverty, attracting creative and flair players to the club. While he might have brought in the likes of Muniesa and Pieters – who look good signings on paper, and solve some of their problems at full-back – it remains to be seen whether he can transcend the unglamorous preconceptions of the club, and attract high quality players in forward areas. I’m not banking on it and I think they will flounder around the middle of the bottom half of the table.

 

Prediction: 15th

 

 

Sunderland

Might as well roll a dice and call this. Di Canio, such an erratic, combustible personality, along with the spate of new signings brought in to the club this summer, could work wonders, or on the other hand, repeat QPR’s failings of last season. I have to say that I’d err towards the latter view. Despite Di Canio being a talented player and achieving his coaching badges with record-breaking results, his man-management skills are deeply questionable. While there is sense in moving on players clearly used to a bit of a playboy lifestyle in the North East, the scatter-gun fines that he seemed to mete out willy-nilly towards the end of last season, suggests, much like his political views, a strict authoritarian regime that might provoke considerable unrest in the dressing room. His press-conferences last year were bordering on farcical – banging on the desk and cursing when Wigan scored in a game being played simultaneously – and he will need to keep a reign on his emotions so that he doesn’t make the club a laughing stock. As for the signings, they look a bit of a rag-bag collection of freebies, cast-offs, and players with squandered potential. The Italian international winger, Giaccherini, looks the best purchase so far, and with recent goals for the Azzurri, suggests that he has some talent. They were a team without any identity when I watched them play us at Stadium of Light in April, but with even more signings seemingly imminent, it might well be a case of trying to change too much, too soon.

 

Prediction: 18th

 

 

Swansea

Last year’s success story looks likely to be repeated again with Swansea making a number of singings to bolster their squad ahead of a potentially gruelling season with attendant Europa League commitments. A couple of these are low-key Spanish signings that I know little of, but the purchase of Bony should give them much more of a presence up front, with Michu dropping deeper into his favoured position. The muscular and athletic Bony has scored goals a plenty in the Dutch league, but time will tell whether or not he is another Afonso Alvez dud, or the real deal. You’d like to give Laudrup the benefit of the doubt with his successes in the transfer window last season, though I’m not entirely convinced with the Shelvey signing. One of the main problems for Swansea, aside from balancing the Premier League with mid-week games in Europe, is the tensions that have surfaced between Swansea’s chairman, Huw Jenkins, and Laudrup over the summer. I think Laudrup has been pretty underhand in some of the things he has said to the media – imagine Poch putting that much pressure on Cortese to make new signings – but with the League Cup win, he has a strong hand to play from. The rumours of Laudrup’s departure to a more prestigious team won’t go away quickly, and I actually think he will be off at the end of the season. That said, he won’t want to depart on a low.

 

Prediction: 7th

[Toon Saint]

WBA

I think the biggest blow for West Brom hasn’t necessarily been Lukaku (it was inevitable after all), but actually Dan Ashworth’s departure to the FA as director of elite development. He worked wonders in the transfer market for them over the past couple of years, bringing promising players in such as Yacob and Mulumbu dirt-cheap. Not convinced that policy is being taken forward with the signing of Anelka, which seems a curious one given his age and the wages he is probably raking in. Steve Clarke did really well last season, and while not expecting them to be worrying about relegation, they need to inject a bit more new blood into a team that faded in the second-half of the season in order to stand a chance of repeating their 8th placed finish.

 

Prediction: 12th

 

 

West Ham

Ah, Big Sam: the walking contradiction. An innovator off of the pitch in the realms of sport science and nutrition, yet thoroughly regressive on the pitch, implementing his despised brand of hoof-ball. To be fair to him, in spite of the limited aesthetic qualities of his teams, he seems to know this Premier League lark rather well. He’s brought in, permanently, his wet-dream fantasy target in Andy Carroll (who scored a whopping seven goals last season) for a mind-boggling £15 million. Razvan Rat has also come to offer some decent international experience at full back, with Adrian set to challenge Jussi (can’t be bothered to attempt his surname) in goal. Hardly a transfer window to get excited about, but when is it ever when Big Sam has the purse-strings? I think they’ll be pretty much the same as last season. They’ll stay up. No more, no less.

 

Prediction: 10th

[Giordano]

Nice work mate, an interesting read.

[Glasgow_Saint]

so in summary

 

Chelsea

Man Utd

Man City

Arsenal

Spurs

Liverpool

Swansea

Southampton

Everton

West Ham

Norwich

WBA

Fulham

Aston Villa

Stoke

Newcastle

Cardiff

Sunderland

Hull City

Crystal Palace

 

Imho we need 2 maybe 3 more players before we can finish top 10.

 

Good post though bro

[JoeShmoe]

so in summary

 

Chelsea

Man Utd

Man City

Arsenal

Spurs

Liverpool

Swansea

Southampton

Everton

West Ham

Norwich

WBA

Fulham

Aston Villa

Stoke

Newcastle

Cardiff

Sunderland

Hull City

Crystal Palace

 

Imho we need 2 maybe 3 more players before we can finish top 10.

 

Good post though bro

 

Agree GS, as we are now i'd think somewhere between 11th-14th

[Batman]

Agree GS, as we are now i'd think somewhere between 11th-14th

 

like where we are now then? really?

[Golden Balls]

Unless we get a couple in, we won't finish that high. I expect Villa to do slightly better and Stoke slightly worse. Otherwise, I'd agree. Good post.

[Toon Saint]

We were a handful of points off, so if you don't improve it at all, you already have the advantage of starting with Boruc, Yoshida, Cork, Ramirez. Add to that Wanyama and Lovren.

 

If anyone really believes that STILL doesn't give us a chance of 10th (which was what, 4 or 5 points off?), then my question would be do you think it's worth it? £24m spent and it might not get us an extra 5 points? We need 2 or 3 more players to rise 3 or 4 places?

 

The prize money for 10th would make that a fairly futile strategy wouldn't it? I'm genuinely interested as there seems to be a point where spending won't help at a certain level, like Everton. I believe Saints, along with several clubs, are good enough for 8-12th. So do you use what you have or spend a fortune and probably end up in those positions anyway?

 

Well I think we should be automatically better for a full pre-season under Poch, as well as the fact that all of our players will be playing their second year in the Premier League. So if the season started now, then yes, I could see us finishing in the top half with our new additions.

 

Obviously I'd like us to sign a couple more. But I don't think the question about bridging the gap between 12th and 8th, or even 8th and 6th, is necessarily on how much you spend, but how effectively you spend it.

 

That might sound a little trite, but comparing West Brom and Stoke's transfer activity over past five seasons makes for interesting reading, given where both teams finished last season (8th vs. 13th)

 

http://www.transferleague.co.uk/league-tables/transfer-league-table-last-five-seasons.html

 

Full table is above - but Stokes 5 year net spend is at £89 million, while West Brom's stands at only £12 million. That in itself could support the idea that it is 'futile' to spend lots for little gain.

 

I talked a bit above about the 'glass ceiling' that Cortese and Poch are trying to break through with the PR overload, and they will have to work hard to shift perceptions to sign the players to drive us to a top 6 finish. But I definitely think it is possible and I'm not of the view that the teams that typically occupy those spots (Liverpool, Spurs, City, United, Arsenal, Chelsea) cannot be caught. Being content with 8th-12th every season certainly isn't the way forward.

 

The 'strategy', for want of a better word, that we are taking with the signings of Wanyama/Ramirez/Lovren etc., combined with our youth team products, looks to be solid and I honestly think if we continue down the same road then we can get there in 2-3 years without spending ridiculous amounts.

Edited 23 July, 2013 by Toon Saint

[lloydie]

Hats off, excellent summary Toon Saint. My only feeling of disagreement is that I think Hull won't go down. I Just have a feeling. who takes their place however i'm not sure. Would have said Stoke depending on how good Hughes is with that squad.

Crystal Palace will probably be the whipping boys as they can't seem to do business for love nor money. A 40 year old Phillips and a god awfull Carlton Cole does not make for a good window!

[david in sweden]

very nice analysis Toon Saint, I agree with much of that myself.

 

Certainly agree with the Palace assessment as they look to be "cannon-fodder" for the rest of the division, and Hull may fare little better, though I think Cardiff might just survive.

 

I also see Chelsea as potential "champs", and whereas some clubs seem to implode when their manager leaves, Chelsea continue to thrive - no matter who their manager is that month.

 

...and on the subject, I'm not totally sold on the idea of Manchester domination either. Ferguson may still be seated in the director's box, but I'm not certain that Moyes has it in him to replace the legendary "Sir Alex".

 

Citeh had one good season, when they narrowly won the title, but I really don't see them as a threat to the top spot after another managerial change.

 

I agree with your Fulham placement, although they may become a threat, if the new owner "splashes the cash" in the next season or two.

 

I also have my doubts about Spurs top six future - especially if Bale moves on. They often looked like a mediocre " one man band " and may well sink to mid-table without him.

 

Dare I say it, but I wasn't impressed by either of the clubs from the North East last season, and might easily see one of them " making the drop", although it would be tragic for Toons' fanatical fan base - wouldn't it ?

 

As for your prediction for Saints, I'd be well-pleased with an 8th place, (especially after our history over the last decade), but not overly surprised if we do better, but then again - Europe is another mountain to climb.

 

Some of the squad have done well together for 2 or 3 seasons already and players like Lallana, Shaw and JWP have been the club almost before they started secondary school and don't need a " settling-in " period.

We seem to have gone from strength to strength in recent seasons - despite our managerial changes, and mostly due to the influence of Cortese, rather than individuals on the staff.

 

He's not afraid to spend money and seems to recruit the right people very thoroughly, and may yet pull a few horses heads (sorry)... rabbits out of his hat in the next year or so.

Edited 23 July, 2013 by david in sweden

[dingbattigger]

Very interesting read. If Saints finish in the top half I'd be happy with that

[Maggie May]

No chance on eighth. Ill predict 14th again.

[Pastor Patrón]

I'm getting less optimistic the longer the transfer window goes on. I think we're improving but was expecting too big a jump in quality.

[saints_is_the_south]

Excellent couple of posts there, and I largely agree with everything you've said.

 

I don't think Swansea will finish that high. They've strengthened well enough, but assuming they do make it through the qualifying stages to the group stages of the Europa League, then I'd expect that to affect their league standing. Don't see them getting themselves in anywhere near the same trouble that Newcastle did last season, but I predict mid table for them, 11/12th.

 

I've been very impressed with the business Norwich have done them this season, I'd put them up in the top half. I think Villa will have a better season this time around, done some astute business and convincing Benteke to stay is a massive boost. The experience of last season will have done a lot of their players some good, and I can certainly see them pushing towards upper bottom half, maybe even top half.

 

I think West Brom will struggle to replace Lukaku, don't really get the Anelka signing and the added expectation from an 8th place finish last time out could weigh them down. Lower half for them, but got enough to stay clear of trouble.

 

As you've said, next season will be a period of transition for Everton and it could open up a top 7 place for somebody else.

 

My prediction for Saints at the end of last season was 8th. We've made two great signings so far, and I think we just need another couple to be in with a very good chance of achieving that. As things stand, with no further signings I'd say 10th.

[dubai_phil]

We were a handful of points off, so if you don't improve it at all, you already have the advantage of starting with Boruc, Yoshida, Cork, Ramirez. Add to that Wanyama and Lovren.

 

If anyone really believes that STILL doesn't give us a chance of 10th (which was what, 4 or 5 points off?), then my question would be do you think it's worth it? £24m spent and it might not get us an extra 5 points? We need 2 or 3 more players to rise 3 or 4 places?

 

The prize money for 10th would make that a fairly futile strategy wouldn't it? I'm genuinely interested as there seems to be a point where spending won't help at a certain level, like Everton. I believe Saints, along with several clubs, are good enough for 8-12th. So do you use what you have or spend a fortune and probably end up in those positions anyway?

 

Two factors here.

 

How many points did we earn in our first 8 games compared to the rest of the season?

 

Our start was horrific but then when Boruc/Cork et al settled in to the team we made it to within 5 points of 10th....

 

So to be in the same place this season we either have to play WORSE than for most of last year OR have another dreadful start. Simply cannot see that happening.

 

Yes ALL PL teams have spent their new TV money to improve, but SO FAR we still have available the same squad as last year who did a damned good job,

 

All the others around us are relying on bedding in new players or managers that doesn't always work out

 

(Clearly we WILL bed in new players but IF they are rubbish/don't settle we still did OK with Jos & Maya at the back....)

 

IMHO a top half finish is not "realistic" it has to be expected simply from our form and style of play from the middle of last year.

[Toon Saint]

No chance on eighth. Ill predict 14th again.

 

Two factors here.

 

How many points did we earn in our first 8 games compared to the rest of the season?

 

Our start was horrific but then when Boruc/Cork et al settled in to the team we made it to within 5 points of 10th....

 

So to be in the same place this season we either have to play WORSE than for most of last year OR have another dreadful start. Simply cannot see that happening.

 

Yes ALL PL teams have spent their new TV money to improve, but SO FAR we still have available the same squad as last year who did a damned good job,

 

All the others around us are relying on bedding in new players or managers that doesn't always work out

 

(Clearly we WILL bed in new players but IF they are rubbish/don't settle we still did OK with Jos & Maya at the back....)

 

IMHO a top half finish is not "realistic" it has to be expected simply from our form and style of play from the middle of last year.

 

I think Cortese will certainly expect a top-half finish given investment made so far and the calibre of players we are being linked with. If we finished 14th again, I'd say unless there were real mitigating circumstances (extensive injury list etc.) Poch's position would come under serious review.

[The9]

I think 8th is pretty reasonable, though it does make me wonder why people say we'll definitely be better just because we haven't got such a difficult start. We've still got to play all the teams over the course of the season, and if we show any sign of challenging for anything we'll soon find we're facing prepared and well-briefed top 6 sides instead of unprepared squad rotation sides expecting to get the points without too much effort.

 

Admittedly the learning process we had last year will not be anything like as widespread and we might be able to build some confidence early on, but even the last time around in the Prem we learned the hard way that if you don't constantly evolve and improve the side you go backwards, so I can see some merit in people saying "11th-14th" as well. Just because we've got a plan, it doesn't follow that we're going to achieve it. EVERYONE has got a plan.

 

Looking at that list, Hull's signings look shrewd if not earthshattering, and they could be a sticker. I am hopeful Cardiff are this season's whipping boys, and Palace just don't have enough. So I'm going for Cardiff, Palace and Sunderland to go down, because Di Canio won't get away with yelling like a mental to top tier pros, some of whom won't even remember him at West Ham, for long before either he goes or they do.

[hutch]

I can pretty much guarantee that we won't lose at home to Wigan in the opening games this season.