Step-by-step guide to survival before kick off on May 19th

[Forester]

very well put

I think some people need to walk away from their pc or phone for a bit - what's the point of all this baiting?

 

For me it's simple enough - we have shown a lot of excellent potential this season, we can clearly compete with some of the best teams in the league on our day, but we can also turn in some very poor performances. We have the ability to do well, but we need to be more ruthless and consistent.

 

But none of that matters right now.

 

What matters right now is that we have two games left, to make absolutely certain we remain in the Prem next season. Form counts for little. Our own has been erratic, just as most others down the bottom has been. That's why we're all down here. We know we have ability, so we just need to get everyone behind the team and concentrate on staying up.

 

The talk about moving up the table next season was perfectly valid - we have shown a lot of excellent potential, players growing into the league and contributing to some excellent results against top 6 sides. There's no harm in recognising that we *can* be very good on our day, and wanting to harness that and move forward. It's not arrogant to think any of that - but it IS arrogant to assume it will happen.

 

So, I'll not apologise for having joined in those conversations about what we can possibly achieve next season - but for now it is not appropriate. The start to our season and our inconsistency have led to us still not being safe, so let's sort that out first, and then look forward.

 

And if, just perhaps, we can all get behind the team as one to achieve it, that might help... sometimes I can't help but think that fellow fans enjoy picking arguments with others.

[Ex Ringwood Saint]

very well put

Seconded..voice of reason in a sea of trolls and Internet nut jobs....

[Wiggles31]

Seconded..voice of reason in a sea of trolls and Internet nut jobs....

 

All too true.

[kpturner]

We also do not have a history of travelling well to the North East.

.....apart from the times that we beat both Sunderland away and Newcastle away while embroiled in previous relegation dogfights

[SaintBobby]

Next step...we want Chelsea to beat Villa.

 

If that happens, then a draw at Sunderland fully confirms our survival, with 40 points.

 

If it doesn't, a win at Sunderland confirms our survival anyway.

 

Even if Villa win and we lose, we are still nearly certain to stay up.

 

(or if you prefer an alternative view...."we're doomed, and will go down unless we get at least 41 points!")

 

Well, you pays ur money and takes your choice....

Edited 11 May, 2013 by SaintBobby

[Matthew Le God]

Next step...we want Chelsea to beat Villa.

 

If that happens, then a draw at Sunderland fully confirms our survival, with 40 points.

 

It wouldn't, Saints could still go down with these results...

 

Villa 0 - Chelsea 1

Norwich 1 - West Brom 0

QPR 0 - Newcastle 1

Fulham 1 - Liverpool 1

Sunderland 1 - Saints 1

Arsenal 0 - Wigan 1

Southampton 0 - Stoke 13

Tottenham 1 - Sunderland 1

Wigan 1 - Villa 0

[Shroppie]

It wouldn't, Saints could still go down with these results...

 

Villa 0 - Chelsea 1

Norwich 1 - West Brom 0

QPR 0 - Newcastle 1

Fulham 1 - Liverpool 1

Sunderland 1 - Saints 1

Arsenal 0 - Wigan 1

Southampton 0 - Stoke 13

Tottenham 1 - Sunderland 1

Wigan 1 - Villa 0

 

OMG. And that so could happen. Must get £50 on it.

[SaintRichmond]

It wouldn't, Saints could still go down with these results...

 

Villa 0 - Chelsea 1

Norwich 1 - West Brom 0

QPR 0 - Newcastle 1

Fulham 1 - Liverpool 1

Sunderland 1 - Saints 1

Arsenal 0 - Wigan 1

Southampton 0 - Stoke 13

Tottenham 1 - Sunderland 1

Wigan 1 - Villa 0

 

I'll now be sweating on the Stoke result

[SaintBobby]

It wouldn't, Saints could still go down with these results...

 

Villa 0 - Chelsea 1

Norwich 1 - West Brom 0

QPR 0 - Newcastle 1

Fulham 1 - Liverpool 1

Sunderland 1 - Saints 1

Arsenal 0 - Wigan 1

Southampton 0 - Stoke 13

Tottenham 1 - Sunderland 1

Wigan 1 - Villa 0

 

I really think 13-0 defeats can be discounted. It's more likely that Southampton will be nuked by North Korea.

[Whitey Grandad]

I really think 13-0 defeats can be discounted. It's more likely that Southampton will be nuked by North Korea.

 

Thanks, now I've got two things to worry about

[hutch]

I really think 13-0 defeats can be discounted. It's more likely that Southampton will be nuked by North Korea.

I just put a tenner on you lot being nuked. Just in case.

[shurlock]

It wouldn't, Saints could still go down with these results...

 

Villa 0 - Chelsea 1

Norwich 1 - West Brom 0

QPR 0 - Newcastle 1

Fulham 1 - Liverpool 1

Sunderland 1 - Saints 1

Arsenal 0 - Wigan 1

Southampton 0 - Stoke 13

Tottenham 1 - Sunderland 1

Wigan 1 - Villa 0

 

Well done- more chance you admitting you're wrong once in a while than any of this happening.

[SaintBobby]

UPDATES IN BOLD.

 

SAINTS ARE NOW 100% SAFE (BEFORE MAY 19th) IF:

 

1. SAINTS WIN AWAY AT SUNDERLAND, OR

2. SAINTS DRAW AWAY AT SUNDERLAND*

2. WIGAN FAIL TO BEAT ARSENAL AWAY ON TUESDAY 14th MAY**, OR

 

THIS MEANS THAT 40 POINTS NOW GUARANTEES SAFETY*

 

(*ASSUMING YOU ARE CONFIDENT THAT SAINTS DON'T LOSE EITHER OF THEIR REMAINING GAMES BY 12 OR MORE GOALS)

(**ASSUMING SAINTS DON'T LOSE THEIR LAST TWO GAMES VERY HEAVILY AND WIGAN FAIL TO THRASH VILLA - see below for more details)

 

 

Tuesday 7th May

Wigan v Swansea (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Wigan 2-3 Swansea

 

About half of all Premier League fans will be cheering on Swansea. If Wigan fail to win, they will have to get something out of Arsenal away in order to stand any chance of catching Saints.

 

CONSEQUENCE: This is a massive result. If you were cussing the West Midlands and West Brom on Saturday, now is the time to give all your thanks and gratitude to South Wales. Wigan's defeat means Saints are almost certainly safe. Unless Wigan beat Arsenal away and Villa at home, they can't catch Southampton. Even if Wigan win both these games, Saints have a lot of "outs". The very strong likelihood is now that a team on 38 points (or less) will occupy 18th place - and Saints are already on 39. Mathematically, 41 points are still needed to be 100% safe - but it is now almost inconceivable that Saints will need such a points haul. As per my original post, even if we lose at Sunderland, the Arsenal v Wigan game on Tues 14th will probably confirm our survival. Happy days.

 

Saturday 11th May

 

Aston Villa v Chelsea (kick off 1245pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Aston Villa 1 Chelsea 2

 

Chelsea win desired here, obviously. A Chelsea victory means Saints can settle for securing just one more point and this might even alter our tactics (e.g. if we're drawing with 5 minutes to go, no need to go all out for the winner).

 

CONSEQUENCE: Villa fail to guarantee survival and a point for Saints v Sunderland will effectively secure our Premiership survival (barring a 12-0 defeat against Stoke on the last day of the season)

Man City v Wigan (FA Cup Final) (kick off 515pm, ITV1) - NOTE THIS IS NOT A LEAGUE GAME!!!!

 

Of tangential interest, I guess. A string of Wigan injuries/red cards would be useful. A Man City win is also desirable for reasons of morale. Maybe after 120 minutes to cause maximum exhaustion to Wigan too?

 

 

Sunday 12th May

 

Stoke v Spurs (kick off 130pm Sky Sports 1)

 

UPDATED: Villa's defeat to Chelsea confirms Stoke are now 100% safe. However, if your interested in Saints final league position and not just whether we survive, then cheer on Spurs. If Stoke lose here, Saints are sure to finish above them if we beat them at St Mary's on the last day of the season (irrespective of our result against Sunderland). If Stoke draw, then a win on the last day of the season (even with a defeat at Sunderland), could also well mean we finish above Stoke, although we may have to win by more than one goal.

 

Fulham v Liverpool (kick off 3pm)

 

UPDATED: Fulham are now safe unless they lose their last two matches by a combined total of at least 12 goals.

 

Norwich v West Brom (kick off 3pm)

 

A massive game for Norwich, if they lose this then they will need to beat Man City away on the last day of the season to stand any chance of catching Saints. If they draw, they'll still need to get a point or more from the Etihad to stand any chance of catching us.

 

QPR v Newcastle (kick off 3pm)

 

Very similar to the game immediately above. If the Geordies lose, they'll need a win against Arsenal at St. James's Park on the last day to catch us. If they draw, they'll still need to get something in that game to catch us.

 

Sunderland v Saints (kick off 3pm)

 

UPDATE: A draw makes us something like 99.999999999% safe and a win 100% safe. A win means we can celebrate staying up for certain there and then. A draw will not officially confirm our survival in the Premiership, but we would only go down if we lose 12-0 or more on the last day of the season. If Saints were to lose this game, it would obviously be best to avoid losing by a huge margin thereby not jeopardising our superior goal difference (e.g. if we did lose 6-0 and then also lost 6-0 on the final day of the season, we could go down on goal difference if we are level with another team on 39 points)

 

Tuesday 14th May

 

Arsenal v Wigan (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

UPDATE: If Arsenal win, Saints are definitely safe. If Arsenal draw (and Saints have lost v Sunderland), we are almost certainly safe assuming Wigan fail to achieve a swing of at least 12 in goal difference over three games. (e.g. Sunderland 4 Saints 0; Wigan 5-0 Aston Villa 0; Saints 0 Stoke 4, would mean Saints and Wigan both finishing on 39 points, but Wigan having superior goal difference)

 

Sunday 19th May (all kick offs 4pm)

 

Updated following the Villa v Chelsea match. To all intents and purposes, 40 points now guarantee safety. Anyone who says or has said we will need 41 points or more is now, essentially, wrong.

Edited 11 May, 2013 by SaintBobby

[Minty]

It's more likely that Southampton will be nuked by North Korea.

 

Don't joke...

 

[video=youtube_share;vCX5wWhuhgQ]

[The9]

Updated following the Villa v Chelsea match. To all intents and purposes, 40 points now guarantee safety. Anyone who says or has said we will need 41 points or more is now, essentially, wrong.

 

...for everyone except Villa.

[SaintBobby]

...for everyone except Villa.

 

To be clear, I'm only referring to Saints here. Newcastle could also go down on 40 points. If Aston Villa lose to Wigan by a single goal and Newcastle get 2 draws, Villa will probably be ahead of Newcastle on goals scored.

[The9]

To be clear, I'm only referring to Saints here. Newcastle could also go down on 40 points. If Aston Villa lose to Wigan by a single goal and Newcastle get 2 draws, Villa will probably be ahead of Newcastle on goals scored.

 

Goals scored is within a couple of goals, Newcastle (43 goals) need to score 3 more than Villa (45) in one more match. Norwich have scored 44. So yeah, any of those 3. A couple of high scoring draws would be interesting.

[Dr Who?]

Wigan did beat arsenal at then end of last season!

[Dr Who?]

No fear though as we will get a point tomorrow and that will be blockbusters!

[Dalek2003]

No fear though as we will get a point tomorrow and that will be blockbusters!

 

It might just be enough. I stick with my long term prediction that 39 points will see us relegated.

[Matthew Le God]

It might just be enough. I stick with my long term prediction that 39 points will see us relegated.

 

In the same way you stuck with your prediction that it would need 43 points, then 41 points and now 40 points. Or your prediction from last season in the Championship that Saints would finish 17th. I'd quit making predictions if I were you Dalek2003, you aren't very good at them!

[Dalek2003]

In the same way you stuck with your prediction that it would need 43 points, then 41 points and now 40 points. Or your prediction from last season in the Championship that Saints would finish 17th. I'd quit making predictions if I were you Dalek2003, you aren't very good at them!

 

 

If we stay on 39 points we will be relegated. I have been consistent in my view for many weeks now. There will be twists and turns in the last two games ad we are far from safe.

[Matthew Le God]

Out of interest Mr Dalek2003....

 

Should the extremely unlikely happen and 4th place Arsenal beat 18th place Wigan at home on Tuesday and it is shown that 39 points is enough. What will you say or will we never hear from you on the subject again like with your 17th place Championship predictions of 2011/12?

[SaintBobby]

It might just be enough. I stick with my long term prediction that 39 points will see us relegated.

 

As pointed out on the other thread, that means you are certain that Wigan will beat Arsenal on Tuesday. (as well as being certain that Norwich and Newcastle will both get 2 or more points from their remaining games). With you having taken others to task on how unpredictable football is, to show such utter certainty about the results of these five games is truly bizarre. Especially, as you are utterly certain that the 10/1 underdog will win one of those five games....

[Dalek2003]

Out of interest Mr Dalek2003....

 

Should the extremely unlikely happen and 4th place Arsenal beat 18th place Wigan at home on Tuesday and it is shown that 39 points is enough. What will you say or will we never hear from you on the subject again like with your 17th place Championship predictions of 2011/12?

 

No, if I am wrong I will admit it but not apologise. Why ?

 

Anyway, there is the next big topic coming up. The transfer circus. Bet we leave it to the last minute again !

[Saint Charlie]

Bore off you two.

[eurosaint]

Out of interest Mr Dalek2003....

 

Should the extremely unlikely happen and 4th place Arsenal beat 18th place Wigan at home on Tuesday and it is shown that 39 points is enough. What will you say or will we never hear from you on the subject again like with your 17th place Championship predictions of 2011/12?

 

Don't build up your hopes mate, he is still chuntering on about Hoddle 18 years since he left !

[SaintBobby]

UPDATES IN BOLD.

 

SAINTS ARE NOW SAFE UNLESS WE LOSE 12-0 OR WORSE AT HOME TO STOKE

 

 

Tuesday 7th May

Wigan v Swansea (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Wigan 2-3 Swansea

 

About half of all Premier League fans will be cheering on Swansea. If Wigan fail to win, they will have to get something out of Arsenal away in order to stand any chance of catching Saints.

 

CONSEQUENCE: This is a massive result. If you were cussing the West Midlands and West Brom on Saturday, now is the time to give all your thanks and gratitude to South Wales. Wigan's defeat means Saints are almost certainly safe. Unless Wigan beat Arsenal away and Villa at home, they can't catch Southampton. Even if Wigan win both these games, Saints have a lot of "outs". The very strong likelihood is now that a team on 38 points (or less) will occupy 18th place - and Saints are already on 39. Mathematically, 41 points are still needed to be 100% safe - but it is now almost inconceivable that Saints will need such a points haul. As per my original post, even if we lose at Sunderland, the Arsenal v Wigan game on Tues 14th will probably confirm our survival. Happy days.

 

Saturday 11th May

 

Aston Villa v Chelsea (kick off 1245pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Aston Villa 1 Chelsea 2

 

Chelsea win desired here, obviously. A Chelsea victory means Saints can settle for securing just one more point and this might even alter our tactics (e.g. if we're drawing with 5 minutes to go, no need to go all out for the winner).

 

CONSEQUENCE: Villa fail to guarantee survival and a point for Saints v Sunderland will effectively secure our Premiership survival (barring a 12-0 defeat against Stoke on the last day of the season)

Man City v Wigan (FA Cup Final) (kick off 515pm, ITV1) - NOTE THIS IS NOT A LEAGUE GAME!!!! Man City 0 Wigan 1

 

Of tangential interest, I guess. A string of Wigan injuries/red cards would be useful. A Man City win is also desirable for reasons of morale. Maybe after 120 minutes to cause maximum exhaustion to Wigan too?

 

UPDATE: A great result for Wigan. Will this give them momentum to get out of the relegation mire? Maybe, but not likely to be at the expense of Saints, thankfully.

 

 

Sunday 12th May

 

Stoke v Spurs (kick off 130pm Sky Sports 1) RESULT: Stoke 1 - Spurs 2

 

UPDATED: Results elsewhere mean Stoke were safe. Saints will overtake Stoke if we win the last game of the season.

 

Fulham v Liverpool (kick off 3pm) RESULT Fulham 1 - Liverpool 3

 

UPDATED: Fulham are now safe unless they lose their last game by at least ten goals. Saints will finish ahead of Fulham if we match or better their result on the last day of the season.

 

Norwich v West Brom (kick off 3pm) RESULT Norwich 4 - WBA 0

 

UPDATE: Norwich are safe and go one point ahead of Saints. Saints will need to better Norwich's result on the last day of the season (they are away to Man City) to go back ahead of them.

QPR v Newcastle (kick off 3pm) RESULT QPR 1 - Newcastle 2

 

UPDATE: Newcastle are safe and go one point ahead of Saints. Saints will need to better Newcastle's result on the last day of the season (they are home to Arsenal) to go back ahead of them.

 

Sunderland v Saints (kick off 3pm) RESULT Sunderland 1 Saints 1

 

UPDATE: Saints are now safe barring a 12-0 defeat or worse on the last day of the season. We will definitely stay ahead of Sunderland if we at least match their result on the day (they are away at Spurs)

 

Tuesday 14th May

 

Arsenal v Wigan (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

UPDATE: Wigan now really need to win their last two games to stay up. If Wigan fail to beat Arsenal, the relegation places are decided before the final day.

 

Sunday 19th May (all kick offs 4pm)

 

Updated following today's games. We're now essentially safe with 40 points.

[saintbob40]

Assuming Wigan beat arsenal puts them on 38 points. Assuming we lose to Stoke then:

 

1. wigan win, villa down on poorer goal diff (only way we could go down is if Stoke rattle in a stupid amount of goals)or sunderland down.

2. draw-wigan down;

3. villa win-wigan down.

 

Time for a beer or two i think

[SaintRichmond]

Updated following today's games. We're now essentially safe with 40 points.

 

 

Don't quite agree

 

IF, and I know it's a fairly big IF, Wigan win both their matches, they will be on 41 points

 

We only have 40 points

 

So, we will only be safe if we get a minimum of ONE point v Stoke

 

Saying we are already safe is WRONG

[Whitey Grandad]

Don't quite agree

 

IF, and I know it's a fairly big IF, Wigan win both their matches, they will be on 41 points

 

We only have 40 points

 

So, we will only be safe if we get a minimum of ONE point v Stoke

 

Saying we are already safe is WRONG

 

If Wigan win both then they will have beaten Villa next Sunday so Villa cannot then get more than 40 points. Our goal difference is 11 better than Villa's so we would have to lose by 11 more goals than they do and then it would be down to goals scored. At the moment we have scored 3 more than them. Don't worry about it, relax and enjoy the day.

[SaintBobby]

Don't quite agree

 

IF, and I know it's a fairly big IF, Wigan win both their matches, they will be on 41 points

 

We only have 40 points

 

So, we will only be safe if we get a minimum of ONE point v Stoke

 

Saying we are already safe is WRONG

 

Errr, no. We are safe whatever Wigan do as long as we avoid losing to Stoke by 12 goals or more.

 

HTH.

[Matthew Le God]

Don't quite agree

 

IF, and I know it's a fairly big IF, Wigan win both their matches, they will be on 41 points

 

We only have 40 points

 

So, we will only be safe if we get a minimum of ONE point v Stoke

 

Saying we are already safe is WRONG

 

Wigan are playing Villa on the final day. They are both below Saints at the moment. For them both to overtake Saints it would require Wigan to beat Arsenal and Villa and also for Saints to lose to Stoke by 13 goals so Saints drop below Villa on goal difference. Plus Sunderland and Fulham overtaking Saints.

 

Unless you think Stoke will beat Saints 13 - 0 on Sunday, we are safe.

[SaintRichmond]

If Wigan win both then they will have beaten Villa next Sunday so Villa cannot then get more than 40 points. Our goal difference is 11 better than Villa's so we would have to lose by 11 more goals than they do and then it would be down to goals scored. At the moment we have scored 3 more than them. Don't worry about it, relax and enjoy the day.

 

 

Point taken. Thanks

[SaintBobby]

Wigan are playing Villa on the final day. They are both below Saints at the moment. For them both to overtake Saints it would require Wigan to beat Arsenal and Villa and also for Saints to lose to Stoke by 13 goals so Saints drop below Villa on goal difference. Plus Sunderland and Fulham overtaking Saints.

 

Unless you think Stoke will beat Saints 13 - 0 on Sunday, we are safe.

 

If we do lose 13-0, I'm not sure I'd be very confident on relying on Fulham losing by at least eleven goals to ensure we stay up! :-)

[kpturner]

I find it surprising how many Saints fans - especially those that post on here - are seemingly oblivious to the fact that Wigan are playing Villa next week

[Window Cleaner]

If we do lose 13-0, I'm not sure I'd be very confident on relying on Fulham losing by at least eleven goals to ensure we stay up! :-)

 

In fact if we did lose 13-0 Stoke would have surpassed their entire season's away goal tally in a single game.

[skintsaint]

even if we had Barca or Bayern or anyone of similar ilk...we still wouldnt lost 13-0.

[Window Cleaner]

I find it surprising how many Saints fans - especially those that post on here - are seemingly oblivious to the fact that Wigan are playing Villa next week

 

Strange seeing as the number of times it's been pointed out since about October that that game could well decide an entire season for 2 sides. Sort of last day Russian Roulette.