Step-by-step guide to survival before kick off on May 19th

[Turkish]

Again, answer my point...

 

Why do you think Wigan getting a point away at Champions League chasing Arsenal is MORE likely than Saints getting something from Sunderland (without numerous key players) and a team with a terrible away record like Stoke?

 

Wigan could well get a point at Arsenal, but to say it is more likely to happen than Saints getting points from games against bottom half teams like Sunderland and Stoke is bizarre. Can you really not understand why you might be ridiculed for such a viewpoint?

 

Answer mine. Where in the table are we based on last 4 form?

[Matthew Le God]

True, we tend to smash struggling teams don't we. Look at what we did to QPR who had only won once away all season when we played them.

 

So you are joining Alpine with your view than Wigan getting a point away at Arsenal is MORE likely than Saints getting anything from Sunderland or Stoke?

 

I hope you are placing bets, you two are in for a fortune when this all happens. The bookies won't know what hit them!

[Matthew Le God]

Answer mine. Where in the table are we based on last 4 form?

 

I can't be bothered to work it out as statistical websites don't do form over 4 games. We'd obviously be lower, but doesn't take into account we played well against Spurs and were very unlucky, also had a goal wrongfully ruled out vs Swansea. Norwich on the other hand are playing poorly and not getting points, not to mention they play Man City away on the last day. Can you really see Norwich overtaking us?

Edited 7 May, 2013 by Matthew Le God

[Minty]

I think some people need to walk away from their pc or phone for a bit - what's the point of all this baiting?

 

For me it's simple enough - we have shown a lot of excellent potential this season, we can clearly compete with some of the best teams in the league on our day, but we can also turn in some very poor performances. We have the ability to do well, but we need to be more ruthless and consistent.

 

But none of that matters right now.

 

What matters right now is that we have two games left, to make absolutely certain we remain in the Prem next season. Form counts for little. Our own has been erratic, just as most others down the bottom has been. That's why we're all down here. We know we have ability, so we just need to get everyone behind the team and concentrate on staying up.

 

The talk about moving up the table next season was perfectly valid - we have shown a lot of excellent potential, players growing into the league and contributing to some excellent results against top 6 sides. There's no harm in recognising that we *can* be very good on our day, and wanting to harness that and move forward. It's not arrogant to think any of that - but it IS arrogant to assume it will happen.

 

So, I'll not apologise for having joined in those conversations about what we can possibly achieve next season - but for now it is not appropriate. The start to our season and our inconsistency have led to us still not being safe, so let's sort that out first, and then look forward.

 

And if, just perhaps, we can all get behind the team as one to achieve it, that might help... sometimes I can't help but think that fellow fans enjoy picking arguments with others.

[Tokyo-Saint]

I think Stoke could be a tough one Godo as they are the type of team we seem to struggle with under Ponch. They sit back, are well organised and pressing doesn't seem to work as they were going to hoof it anyway. Both Sunderland and Stoke are good from set pieces and this has been a weakness for us and by all accounts was a weakness at Espanol. We also do not have a history of travelling well to the North East.

 

Is that enough for even a little bit of doubt to creep in?

[Turkish]

So you are joining Alpine with your view than Wigan getting a point away at Arsenal is MORE likely than Saints getting anything from Sunderland or Stoke?

 

I hope you are placing bets, you two are in for a fortune when this all happens. The bookies won't know what hit them!

 

Did I say that then? Did I even mention Wigan, or are you wrong, again?!

 

You seem to think 3 points in the Stoke game is a given, facts show it isn't.

[Matthew Le God]

We also do not have a history of travelling well to the North East.

 

Is that enough for even a little bit of doubt to creep in?

 

What relevance to a game vs Sunderland in 2013 is how a completely different set of players did in 1997 in a game at Middlesbrough for example?

[Turkish]

I can't be bothered to work it out as statistical websites don't do form over 4 games. We'd obviously be lower, but doesn't take into account we played well against Spurs and were very unlucky, also had a goal wrongfully ruled out vs Swansea. Norwich on the other hand are playing poorly and not getting points, not to mention they play Man City away on the last day. Can you really see Norwich overtaking us?

 

But you can for 8th, funny that. Also last time I checked you didn't get points and up league places for playing well and losing.

[Matthew Le God]

Did I say that then? Did I even mention Wigan, or are you wrong, again?!

 

I didn't say you were, I asked if you were. Can you not understand the difference? Mr Wrong.

[S-Clarke]

What relevance to a game vs Sunderland in 2013 is how a completely different set of players did in 1997 in a game at Middlesbrough for example?

 

2nd from last game of last season rings loudly...!

 

Middlesborogh weren't even a decent team, but I felt we struggled under the pressure in that game. That early goal should have set the tone if we're honest.

 

I think we'll be alright on Sunday, we have a decent record this year against teams in and around us - especially away from home. (Reading, QPR, Villa) etc.

[Matthew Le God]

But you can for 8th, funny that.

 

Ok, you try and find a form table for 4 games.

 

Here is one for 8 games...

 

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/oform.html

 

Also last time I checked you didn't get points and up league places for playing well and losing.

 

Correct, but it is better to be playing well and losing than playing poorly and losing. It indicates you are closer to getting a result in the future.

[Tokyo-Saint]

Hand on heart, swear on Miles Jacobson' life, you'll be cheering on Wigan tonight or are you just trolling a little bit yourself?

[Batman]

crumb of comfort

 

we have only lost once away to the teams in the bottom half of the table - newcastle

[Bearsy]

Ok, you try and find a form table for 4 games.

 

here yo go mlg! What do you want it for I'd of thought 8 games was more normal form guide in accordance with european standards?

 

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/form/premierleague?count=4

[Turkish]

I didn't say you were, I asked if you were. Can you not understand the difference? Mr Wrong.

 

Quite how you can leap from me saying based on our QPR game a win against Stoke is a foregone conclusion to me sayings Wigan are as likely to beat Arsenal as we are to beat Sunderland and then accuse me of being Mr Wrong is beyond me Mr Wrong. It's very odd.

[Turkish]

Ok, you try and find a form table for 4 games.

 

Here is one for 8 games...

 

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/oform.html

 

 

 

Correct, but it is better to be playing well and losing than playing poorly and losing. It indicates you are closer to getting a result in the future.

 

Or maybe its an indicator that even though your playing well you're still not getting results? Don't they say the best teams win even when they don't play well Mr Wrong?

 

Work it out, its not hard, just go to the BBC full table and it shows the teams last 10 results, its not hard, I know you won't want to though because it doesn't support your argument and makes you look like Mr Wrong as usual.

[DuncanRG]

I think some people need to walk away from their pc or phone for a bit - what's the point of all this baiting?

 

For me it's simple enough - we have shown a lot of excellent potential this season, we can clearly compete with some of the best teams in the league on our day, but we can also turn in some very poor performances. We have the ability to do well, but we need to be more ruthless and consistent.

 

But none of that matters right now.

 

What matters right now is that we have two games left, to make absolutely certain we remain in the Prem next season. Form counts for little. Our own has been erratic, just as most others down the bottom has been. That's why we're all down here. We know we have ability, so we just need to get everyone behind the team and concentrate on staying up.

 

The talk about moving up the table next season was perfectly valid - we have shown a lot of excellent potential, players growing into the league and contributing to some excellent results against top 6 sides. There's no harm in recognising that we *can* be very good on our day, and wanting to harness that and move forward. It's not arrogant to think any of that - but it IS arrogant to assume it will happen.

 

So, I'll not apologise for having joined in those conversations about what we can possibly achieve next season - but for now it is not appropriate. The start to our season and our inconsistency have led to us still not being safe, so let's sort that out first, and then look forward.

 

And if, just perhaps, we can all get behind the team as one to achieve it, that might help... sometimes I can't help but think that fellow fans enjoy picking arguments with others.

 

Great post

[The9]

Great post

 

That's funny, I was about to have a go at him for interrupting the arguing.

[Saint Charlie]

As a worst case scenario we could go into the Stoke match in a situation where we could win and still go down.

 

The Newcastle and Norwich games this weekend (especially the latter) are huge.

Edited 7 May, 2013 by Saint Charlie

[Pilchards]

I think some people need to walk away from their pc or phone for a bit - what's the point of all this baiting?

 

For me it's simple enough - we have shown a lot of excellent potential this season, we can clearly compete with some of the best teams in the league on our day, but we can also turn in some very poor performances. We have the ability to do well, but we need to be more ruthless and consistent.

 

But none of that matters right now.

 

What matters right now is that we have two games left, to make absolutely certain we remain in the Prem next season. Form counts for little. Our own has been erratic, just as most others down the bottom has been. That's why we're all down here. We know we have ability, so we just need to get everyone behind the team and concentrate on staying up.

 

The talk about moving up the table next season was perfectly valid - we have shown a lot of excellent potential, players growing into the league and contributing to some excellent results against top 6 sides. There's no harm in recognising that we *can* be very good on our day, and wanting to harness that and move forward. It's not arrogant to think any of that - but it IS arrogant to assume it will happen.

 

So, I'll not apologise for having joined in those conversations about what we can possibly achieve next season - but for now it is not appropriate. The start to our season and our inconsistency have led to us still not being safe, so let's sort that out first, and then look forward.

 

And if, just perhaps, we can all get behind the team as one to achieve it, that might help... sometimes I can't help but think that fellow fans enjoy picking arguments with others.

 

 

Very well said Minty, spot on as usual.

 

Im so excited for our club as I know Cortese has some massive plans for us and it feels like **** or bust in the next couple of games.

 

Come on you swans.

[alpine_saint]

Again, answer my point...

 

Why do you think Wigan getting a point away at Champions League chasing Arsenal is MORE likely than Saints getting something from Sunderland (without numerous key players) and a team with a terrible away record like Stoke?

 

Wigan could well get a point at Arsenal, but to say it is more likely to happen than Saints getting points from games against bottom half teams like Sunderland and Stoke is bizarre. Can you really not understand why you might be ridiculed for such a viewpoint?

 

I reckon I answered it perfectly adequately. Your problem that it doesnt meet with your expected format.

[The9]

As a worst case scenario we could go into the Stoke match in a situation where we could win and still go down.

 

Yeah, as long as Wigan win at home to Swansea and away to Arsenal, Newcastle beat QPR, Norwich beat West Brom, Sunderland beat Saints, Villa beat Chelsea, Stoke beat Spurs and Fulham at least draw with Liverpool.

 

And then on the final day in order to win AND get relegated, we'd have to beat Stoke by less than they beat Spurs the week before, Sunderland would have to get at least a point at Spurs, Wigan would have to beat Villa, Newcastle beat Arsenal, and Norwich beat Man City. So just the 12 matches to go one specific way with a bit of wiggle room around Fulham...

 

That's worth a quid.

[Tamesaint]

Yeah, as long as Wigan win at home to Swansea and away to Arsenal, Newcastle beat QPR, Norwich beat West Brom, Sunderland beat Saints, Villa beat Chelsea, Stoke beat Spurs and Fulham at least draw with Liverpool.

 

And then on the final day in order to win AND get relegated, we'd have to beat Stoke by less than they beat Spurs the week before, Sunderland would have to get at least a point at Spurs, Wigan would have to beat Villa, Newcastle beat Arsenal, and Norwich beat Man City. So just the 12 matches to go one specific way with a bit of wiggle room around Fulham...

 

That's worth a quid.

 

The odds on the first lot of results happening is currently just over 7,000 to 1. That is with Wigan leading at half time making their victory more likely.

[badgerx16]

The odds on the first lot of results happening is currently just over 7,000 to 1. That is with Wigan leading at half time making their victory more likely.

 

With Wigan losing at full time however.......

[Saint Charlie]

So we are safe unless Wigan beat Arsenal and Villa and we lose twice?

[Webby]

Well, they couldn't beat a team with nothing to play for at home so I can't see them beating arsenal. But then stranger things have happened.

[Webby]

If we're above villa come the end of Sundays games we're safe aren't we?

[Mozz]

So we are safe unless Wigan beat Arsenal and Villa and we lose twice?

 

Pretty much. Only exception would be us dropping both games by a large margin and Wigan picking up 4 points with a large victory margin in the win to swing the goal difference by 13.

[CB Fry]

Have to say Wigan are flying at the moment.

[benjii]

If we're above villa come the end of Sundays games we're safe aren't we?

 

Yep, if we draw and Villa lose we are mathematically safe regardless of what Wigan do in their last two games.

[Mozz]

Pretty much. Only exception would be us dropping both games by a large margin and Wigan picking up 4 points with a large victory margin in the win to swing the goal difference by 13.

 

And Norwich/newcastle picking up points.

[Whitey Grandad]

Yep, if we draw and Villa lose we are mathematically safe regardless of what Wigan do in their last two games.

 

Mathematically? What about a humongous thrashing by Stoke?

[Batman]

Mathematically? What about a humongous thrashing by Stoke?

 

we would be above both wigan and villa who play each other

[benjii]

Mathematically? What about a humongous thrashing by Stoke?

 

Well, ok, not quite mathematically but we would need to lose by at least 13 goals. So virtually safe. Which is mathematically certain, virtually.

[KelvinsRightGlove]

Have to say Wigan are flying at the moment.

 

Prior to tonight their previous two games form was 6 points. That's champions league form. They are an almighty points gathering machine, unstoppable in their inevitable march to 17th.

 

All fear the unbeatable Wigan.

[Whitey Grandad]

we would be above both wigan and villa who play each other

 

Wouldn't we be level with Villa? Effectively safe barring a ridiculous thrashing. Even I might relax.

[Batman]

Wouldn't we be level with Villa? Effectively safe barring a ridiculous thrashing. Even I might relax.

 

yes, but we lose but then even both wigan and villa cant win when playing each other

[S-Clarke]

I reckon we're already safe, but there will be a big rubber stamp against our name come Sunday night.

[Whitey Grandad]

yes, but we lose but then even both wigan and villa cant win when playing each other

 

Wigan could beat Villa 1-0 and go above us, we could lose 18-0 and Villa go above us on goal difference.

 

I don't mean to be a pedant, it's just that I'm the sort of person who doesn't relax until we're 4-0 up and 4 minutes into stoppage time.

[The9]

If we're above villa come the end of Sundays games we're safe aren't we?

 

Yes.

[SaintBobby]

Wouldn't we be level with Villa? Effectively safe barring a ridiculous thrashing. Even I might relax.

 

You're right that GD could come into play if we lose our remaining games 8-0 or something insane. It's technically possible.

 

But as long as we enter the last game of the season:

 

1. 3 points clear of Wigan OR

2. Level with Villa and ahead of Wigan

 

then, barring ludicrous defeats by 7 or 8 goals, we are safe.

[SaintBobby]

UPDATES IN BOLD.

 

Tuesday 7th May

Wigan v Swansea (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Wigan 2-3 Swansea

 

About half of all Premier League fans will be cheering on Swansea. If Wigan fail to win, they will have to get something out of Arsenal away in order to stand any chance of catching Saints.

 

CONSEQUENCE: This is a massive result. If you were cussing the West Midlands and West Brom on Saturday, now is the time to give all your thanks and gratitude to South Wales. Wigan's defeat means Saints are almost certainly safe. Unless Wigan beat Arsenal away and Villa at home, they can't catch Southampton. Even if Wigan win both these games, Saints have a lot of "outs". The very strong likelihood is now that a team on 38 points (or less) will occupy 18th place - and Saints are already on 39. Mathematically, 41 points are still needed to be 100% safe - but it is now almost inconceivable that Saints will need such a points haul. As per my original post, even if we lose at Sunderland, the Arsenal v Wigan game on Tues 14th will probably confirm our survival. Happy days.

 

Saturday 11th May

 

Aston Villa v Chelsea (kick off 1245pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

Chelsea win desired here, obviously. A Chelsea victory means Saints can settle for securing just one more point and this might even alter our tactics (e.g. if we're drawing with 5 minutes to go, no need to go all out for the winner)

 

Man City v Wigan (FA Cup Final) (kick off 515pm, ITV1) - NOTE THIS IS NOT A LEAGUE GAME!!!!

 

Of tangential interest, I guess. A string of Wigan injuries/red cards would be useful. A Man City win is also desirable for reasons of morale. Maybe after 120 minutes to cause maximum exhaustion to Wigan too?

 

 

Sunday 12th May

 

Stoke v Spurs (kick off 130pm Sky Sports 1)

 

UPDATE: Saints will be certain to finish ahead of Stoke if Spurs win here and we beat Stoke on the last day of the season, irrespective of our result against Sunderland.

 

Fulham v Liverpool (kick off 3pm)

 

A Fulham defeat would make it even more likely that 40 points will absolutely, unquestionably and definitely be enough to stay up. If they lose here against Liverpool, they might just need to get something from their last game of the season away at Swansea. If they lose both, then Saints only need a single point from one game to finish ahead of Fulham, assuming we don't lose our other game very heavily.

 

Norwich v West Brom (kick off 3pm)

 

A massive game for Norwich, if they lose this then they will need to beat Man City away on the last day of the season to stand any chance of catching Saints. If they draw, they'll still need to get a point or more from the Etihad to stand any chance of catching us.

 

QPR v Newcastle (kick off 3pm)

 

Very similar to the game immediately above. If the Geordies lose, they'll need a win against Arsenal at St. James's Park on the last day to catch us. If they draw, they'll still need to get something in that game to catch us.

 

Sunderland v Saints (kick off 3pm)

 

Well, obvious what we want here, really. But it's worth pointing out that the difference between a win and a draw is nearly zero. A draw makes us something like 99.99% safe and a win 100% safe. Prefer the latter, but any rational Saints fan should be keen to accept a draw right now if there is any sort of Faustian pact we can enter into. A win means we can celebrate staying up for certain there and then. For the mathematically concerned, there is now no way in which a draw will officially confirm our survival in the Premiership. The only real worry now is a crushing defeat of 6-0 or 7-0 which might then put our superior goal difference in doubt.

 

Tuesday 14th May

 

Arsenal v Wigan (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

If Wigan fail to beat Arsenal, Saints are safe, barring a ludicrous and implausible swing on goal difference. If Arsenal win, Saints are definitely safe.

 

Sunday 19th May (all kick offs 4pm)

 

1. A win at Sunderland renders all other results irrelevant.

2. If Wigan fail to beat Arsenal on Tues 14th, we are also safe.

3. A draw against Sunderland can't make us safe there and then, but will make us safe is Wigan only draw against Arsenal.

 

Original post update in light of tonight's result.

[Pilchards]

This is quality Bobby, you are a superstar.

 

Can we have one for the start of the season on how we can win the premiership?

[SaintBobby]

Have to say Wigan are flying at the moment.

 

Were flying.

 

Now very likely to be in the Championship next year.

[SaintBobby]

UPDATES IN BOLD.

 

SAINTS ARE NOW 100% SAFE (BEFORE MAY 19th) IF:

 

1. SAINTS WIN AWAY AT SUNDERLAND, OR

2. WIGAN FAIL TO BEAT ARSENAL AWAY ON TUESDAY 14th MAY*, OR

3. ASTON VILLA LOSE AT HOME TO CHELSEA ON SATURDAY 11th MAY AND SAINTS GET AT LEAST A DRAW AT SUNDERLAND*

 

(*ASSUMING YOU ARE CONFIDENT THAT SAINTS DON'T LOSE BY 10-0 OR MORE vs STOKE ON THE LAST DAY OF THE SEASON)

 

Tuesday 7th May

Wigan v Swansea (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Wigan 2-3 Swansea

 

About half of all Premier League fans will be cheering on Swansea. If Wigan fail to win, they will have to get something out of Arsenal away in order to stand any chance of catching Saints.

 

CONSEQUENCE: This is a massive result. If you were cussing the West Midlands and West Brom on Saturday, now is the time to give all your thanks and gratitude to South Wales. Wigan's defeat means Saints are almost certainly safe. Unless Wigan beat Arsenal away and Villa at home, they can't catch Southampton. Even if Wigan win both these games, Saints have a lot of "outs". The very strong likelihood is now that a team on 38 points (or less) will occupy 18th place - and Saints are already on 39. Mathematically, 41 points are still needed to be 100% safe - but it is now almost inconceivable that Saints will need such a points haul. As per my original post, even if we lose at Sunderland, the Arsenal v Wigan game on Tues 14th will probably confirm our survival. Happy days.

 

Saturday 11th May

 

Aston Villa v Chelsea (kick off 1245pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

Chelsea win desired here, obviously. A Chelsea victory means Saints can settle for securing just one more point and this might even alter our tactics (e.g. if we're drawing with 5 minutes to go, no need to go all out for the winner). If Villa lose, a point for Saints v Sunderland will effectively secure our Premiership survival (barring a c. 10-0 defeat against Stoke on the last day of the season)

Man City v Wigan (FA Cup Final) (kick off 515pm, ITV1) - NOTE THIS IS NOT A LEAGUE GAME!!!!

 

Of tangential interest, I guess. A string of Wigan injuries/red cards would be useful. A Man City win is also desirable for reasons of morale. Maybe after 120 minutes to cause maximum exhaustion to Wigan too?

 

 

Sunday 12th May

 

Stoke v Spurs (kick off 130pm Sky Sports 1)

 

UPDATE: Saints will be certain to finish ahead of Stoke if Spurs win here and we beat Stoke on the last day of the season, irrespective of our result against Sunderland.

 

Fulham v Liverpool (kick off 3pm)

 

A Fulham defeat would make it even more likely that 40 points will absolutely, unquestionably and definitely be enough to stay up. If they lose very heavily here (say, 4-0) against Liverpool, they might just need to get something from their last game of the season away at Swansea. If they lose both, then Saints only need a single point from one game to finish ahead of Fulham, assuming we don't lose our other game very heavily.

 

Norwich v West Brom (kick off 3pm)

 

A massive game for Norwich, if they lose this then they will need to beat Man City away on the last day of the season to stand any chance of catching Saints. If they draw, they'll still need to get a point or more from the Etihad to stand any chance of catching us.

 

QPR v Newcastle (kick off 3pm)

 

Very similar to the game immediately above. If the Geordies lose, they'll need a win against Arsenal at St. James's Park on the last day to catch us. If they draw, they'll still need to get something in that game to catch us.

 

Sunderland v Saints (kick off 3pm)

 

Well, obvious what we want here, really. But it's worth pointing out that the difference between a win and a draw is nearly zero. A draw makes us something like 99.99% safe and a win 100% safe. A win means we can celebrate staying up for certain there and then. For the mathematically concerned, there is now no way in which a draw will officially confirm our survival in the Premiership, but if Villa have lost on Saturday then we are basically there, unless we lose about 10-0 or more on the last day of the season. The only real worry now might be a crushing defeat of 6-0 or 7-0 which might then put our superior goal difference in doubt and mean 39 points might not be enough to stay up.

 

Tuesday 14th May

 

Arsenal v Wigan (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

If Arsenal win, Saints are definitely safe. If Arsenal draw, Saints are also safe barring a defeat v Stoke on the last day of the season by about ten goals.

 

Sunday 19th May (all kick offs 4pm)

 

Updated again, with "what we need" at the top, in light of Wigan's defeat by Swansea.

[CB Fry]

Were flying.

 

Now very likely to be in the Championship next year.

 

Um, I know.

[camdijk]

Um, I know.

 

Why do you always try to belittle people in your replies to posts? Just a thought.

[hypochondriac]

Why do you always try to belittle people in your replies to posts? Just a thought.

 

Because most of the time they deserve it.

[Saint Garrett]

Whats the situation if Sunderland, Norwich and Newcastle win on Saturday, and Wigan win at Arsenal? Does that put us back in the sh!t ?

[SaintBobby]

Whats the situation if Sunderland, Norwich and Newcastle win on Saturday, and Wigan win at Arsenal? Does that put us back in the sh!t ?

 

Yep, we'd need to rely on either (a) getting a point v Stoke or (b) Wigan failing to beat Villa.

 

But an accumulator bet on the 4 results you list would give odds of something like 80/1 - and even then we'll probably survive on the last day of the season (only a Wigan win and Saints defeat would send us down)