Step-by-step guide to survival before kick off on May 19th

[SaintBobby]

UPDATES IN BOLD.

 

SAINTS ARE NOW SAFE UNLESS WE LOSE 12-0 OR WORSE AT HOME TO STOKE

 

 

Tuesday 7th May

Wigan v Swansea (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Wigan 2-3 Swansea

 

About half of all Premier League fans will be cheering on Swansea. If Wigan fail to win, they will have to get something out of Arsenal away in order to stand any chance of catching Saints.

 

CONSEQUENCE: This is a massive result. If you were cussing the West Midlands and West Brom on Saturday, now is the time to give all your thanks and gratitude to South Wales. Wigan's defeat means Saints are almost certainly safe. Unless Wigan beat Arsenal away and Villa at home, they can't catch Southampton. Even if Wigan win both these games, Saints have a lot of "outs". The very strong likelihood is now that a team on 38 points (or less) will occupy 18th place - and Saints are already on 39. Mathematically, 41 points are still needed to be 100% safe - but it is now almost inconceivable that Saints will need such a points haul. As per my original post, even if we lose at Sunderland, the Arsenal v Wigan game on Tues 14th will probably confirm our survival. Happy days.

 

Saturday 11th May

 

Aston Villa v Chelsea (kick off 1245pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Aston Villa 1 Chelsea 2

 

Chelsea win desired here, obviously. A Chelsea victory means Saints can settle for securing just one more point and this might even alter our tactics (e.g. if we're drawing with 5 minutes to go, no need to go all out for the winner).

 

CONSEQUENCE: Villa fail to guarantee survival and a point for Saints v Sunderland will effectively secure our Premiership survival (barring a 12-0 defeat against Stoke on the last day of the season)

Man City v Wigan (FA Cup Final) (kick off 515pm, ITV1) - NOTE THIS IS NOT A LEAGUE GAME!!!! Man City 0 Wigan 1

 

Of tangential interest, I guess. A string of Wigan injuries/red cards would be useful. A Man City win is also desirable for reasons of morale. Maybe after 120 minutes to cause maximum exhaustion to Wigan too?

 

UPDATE: A great result for Wigan. Will this give them momentum to get out of the relegation mire? Maybe, but not likely to be at the expense of Saints, thankfully.

 

 

Sunday 12th May

 

Stoke v Spurs (kick off 130pm Sky Sports 1) RESULT: Stoke 1 - Spurs 2

 

UPDATED: Results elsewhere mean Stoke were safe. Saints will overtake Stoke if we win the last game of the season.

 

Fulham v Liverpool (kick off 3pm) RESULT Fulham 1 - Liverpool 3

 

UPDATED: Fulham are now safe unless they lose their last game by at least ten goals. Saints will finish ahead of Fulham if we match or better their result on the last day of the season.

 

Norwich v West Brom (kick off 3pm) RESULT Norwich 4 - WBA 0

 

UPDATE: Norwich are safe and go one point ahead of Saints. Saints will need to better Norwich's result on the last day of the season (they are away to Man City) to go back ahead of them.

QPR v Newcastle (kick off 3pm) RESULT QPR 1 - Newcastle 2

 

UPDATE: Newcastle are safe and go one point ahead of Saints. Saints will need to better Newcastle's result on the last day of the season (they are home to Arsenal) to go back ahead of them.

 

Sunderland v Saints (kick off 3pm) RESULT Sunderland 1 Saints 1

 

UPDATE: Saints are now safe barring a 12-0 defeat or worse on the last day of the season. We will definitely stay ahead of Sunderland if we at least match their result on the day (they are away at Spurs)

 

Tuesday 14th May

 

Arsenal v Wigan (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

UPDATE: Wigan now really need to win their last two games to stay up. If Wigan fail to beat Arsenal, the relegation places are decided before the final day.

 

Sunday 19th May (all kick offs 4pm)

Edited 12 May, 2013 by SaintBobby
updated post 12th May games; kick off times added; dates fixed; Arsenal description changed

[OttawaSaint]

Excellent post SaintBobby! Thanks for that!

 

[in before the usual trolls derail a good thread with their agendas]

[Pilchards]

Great piece but any chance of the kick off times?

[SaintBobby]

Great piece but any chance of the kick off times?

 

Now added.

[kpturner]

Good work Bobby

[70's Mike]

Expect the unexpected is my guide to over 50 of support, So Wigan can win at the Arse and Norwich at City.Last day games are always totally unpredictable WE need to beat Stoke or Sunderland or maybe both

[patred44]

great piece of work Bobby, except the dates!!!! Monday (today) is the 6th May, and Tuesday is the 7th

Edited 6 May, 2013 by patred44

[Tokyo-Saint]

Cheers bob but I'm confused. MLG scolded anyone who didn't want Villa to beat Sunderland as he we were already safe and should be concentrating on catching the mid table teams.

[Dalek2003]

Monday 7th May

 

Sunderland v Stoke (kick off 8pm, Sky Sports 1)

Hard to know what we want here. I think a Stoke win, as it keeps another team below us and would mean we have a better chance of staying up with our present points tally. Lots of red cards and - if you're ruthless - injuries would be welcome for sure.

 

Tuesday 8th May

 

Wigan v Swansea (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

About half of all Premier League fans will be cheering on Swansea. If Wigan fail to win, they will have to get something out of Arsenal away in order to stand any chance of catching Saints.

 

Saturday 11th May

 

Aston Villa v Chelsea (kick off 1245pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

Chelsea win desired here, obviously. A Chelsea victory means Saints can settle for securing just one more point and this might even alter our tactics (e.g. if we're drawing with 5 minutes to go, no need to go all out for the winner)

 

Man City v Wigan (FA Cup Final) (kick off 515pm, ITV1)

 

Of tangential interest, I guess. A string of Wigan injuries/red cards would be useful. A Man City win is also desirable for reasons of morale. Maybe after 120 minutes to cause maximum exhaustion to Wigan too?

 

 

Sunday 12th May

 

Stoke v Spurs (kick off 130pm Sky Sports 1)

 

Only really impacts on our survival chances if Stoke have lost at Sunderland. But clearly want a Spurs win in any circumstance.

 

Fulham v Liverpool (kick off 3pm)

 

Probably irrelevant, but a Fulham defeat would make it even more likely that 40 points will absolutely, unquestionably and definitely be enough to stay up.

 

Norwich v West Brom (kick off 3pm)

 

A massive game for Norwich, if they lose this then they will need to beat Man City away on the last day of the season to stand any chance of catching Saints. If they draw, they'll still need to get a point or more from the Etihad to stand any chance of catching us.

 

QPR v Newcastle (kick off 3pm)

 

Very similar to the game immediately above. If the Geordies lose, they'll need a win against Arsenal at St. James's Park on the last day to catch us. If they draw, they'll still need to get something in that game to catch us.

 

Sunderland v Saints (kick off 3pm)

 

Well, obvious what we want here, really. But it's worth pointing out that the difference between a win and a draw is nearly zero. A draw makes us something like 99.99% safe and a win 99.999% safe. Prefer the latter, but any rational Saints fan should be keen to accept a draw right now if there is any sort of Faustian pact we can enter into. That said, a win means we can probably celebrate staying up for certain there and then. A draw will mean a longer wait until it can be confirmed for absolute certain. A defeat and we need to look nervously at other results.

 

Tuesday 14th May

 

Arsenal v Wigan (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1)

 

If Wigan failed to beat Swansea on Tuesday 7th, then this could well be the night that Southampton are officially confirmed as staying up. Assuming an Arsenal win, we would then be able to toast survival. There are three scenarios in which we're home and hosed by the end of this match: 1. Wigan's points total is 36 or less (i.e. they have only picked up a point or less in the Swansea and Arsenal games), this makes Saints last two fixtures irrelevant. 2. We have managed to pick up a point at Sunderland and Wigan finish the evening on 37 points or less (i.e. they have picked up two or fewer points in the Swansea and Arsenal games). 3. We have managed to pick up a point at Sunderland, Villa lost to Chelsea on the 12th May and Wigan finish the evening on 39 points or less (i.e. they have picked up three or fewer points in the Swansea and Arsenal games)

 

Sunday 19th May (all kick offs 4pm)

 

Three ways we can relax today before a ball is kicked. 1. If we lost at Sunderland, we need Wigan to have performed fairly badly (only getting one or zero points in their matches against Swansea and Arsenal). 2. If we grabbed a draw at Sunderland, we need Wigan to be on 37 or less (2 draws or worse from their Swansea and Arsenal games) OR Wigan to be on 39 or less (i.e. not having beaten both Swansea and Arsenal) and Villa still stuck on 40 (i.e. having lost at home to Chelsea). 3. If we won at Sunderland, we have probably been safe for a week already.

 

(Note: I'm assuming throughout that there are no utterly insane goal difference swings.)

 

Excellent post. Very balanced and thought out. Will keep referring to this as we go through the weeks. So first hurdle, 'Come on you Swans !'

[CWD]

Thanks for that, made me feel better somehow!

 

Can you do one for the whole of next season?

[Whitey Grandad]

Excellent work, now I am a little clearer about what we need, although I'm not sure that I feel any more relaxed.

[Red Alert]

Cracking OP well done for bringing all of that together.

[saints_is_the_south]

Good post. I think we need 1 more point to be safe. I think Wigan will beat Swansea tomorrow, but also think that Chelsea will win at Villa, and the way my predictor turned out Arsenal would need a win against Wigan to confirm a top 4 finish, which I think they'll get.

 

So we'd then be level with Villa, and 2 ahead of Wigan which would make us mathematically safe. Wigan beat Villa and we lose to Stoke, we stay above Villa on GD barring an improbable swing in that. Villa beat Wigan we stay clear of the latter regardless of our result against Stoke, and if those 2 draw then we remain 1 point ahead of Wigan.

 

If Wigan go and win at the Emirates or Villa beat Chelsea then all of the above goes out of the window.

[Webby]

Nice work Bobby. Can we make this a Sticky mods?

[Shroppie]

Excellent analysis, tidying up all my confused bits of calculation.

 

Many thanks.

[alpine_saint]

Wigan have to play ManC and Arsenal ?

 

If they stay up and we go down because they got 2 wins, something will stink to high heaven.

[PhilippineSaint]

Wigan have to play ManC and Arsenal ?

 

If they stay up and we go down because they got 2 wins, something will stink to high heaven.

 

And how will the Man city game influence the league as its the FA Cup final ?

 

I think you will find that Bobby has put this in as it could possibly affect the team that Wigan could put out.

[alpine_saint]

And how will the Man city game influence the league as its the FA Cup final ?

 

I think you will find that Bobby has put this in as it could possibly affect the team that Wigan could put out.

 

Ah, fairy muff. My interest in the cup ended with our exit.

[for_heaven's_Saint]

Wigan have to play ManC and Arsenal ?

 

If they stay up and we go down because they got 2 wins, something will stink to high heaven.

 

The Man City game is the FA Cup final.

[S-Clarke]

Great post. Still think all will be sorted by mid-week.

 

Fancy Swansea to become the most liked team in the land come Wednesday morning.

[Dalek2003]

And how will the Man city game influence the league as its the FA Cup final ?

 

I think you will find that Bobby has put this in as it could possibly affect the team that Wigan could put out.

 

Hmmm... a jubilant Man City against a fighting for their lives Norwich on the last day of the season ?

[Dalek2003]

Great post. Still think all will be sorted by mid-week.

 

Fancy Swansea to become the most liked team in the land come Wednesday morning.

 

Hope you are right.

[The Kraken]

Great post. Still think all will be sorted by mid-week.

 

Fancy Swansea to become the most liked team in the land come Wednesday morning.

Can't see it myself. Their 0-0 against Man City was a welcome tonic but it seems as if Swansea have been on the beach for ages. I can't see anything but a comfortable home win.

 

We'll get a draw against Sunderland and a win against Stoke; but it's still going down to the wire, and a win for Wigan is really going to put the cat amongst the pigeons.

[alpine_saint]

Can't see it myself. Their 0-0 against Man City was a welcome tonic but it seems as if Swansea have been on the beach for ages. I can't see anything but a comfortable home win.

 

We'll get a draw against Sunderland and a win against Stoke; but it's still going down to the wire, and a win for Wigan is really going to put the cat amongst the pigeons.

 

Shouldnt be like this. I reckon 1 more point will be enough, and we should have got that last week. But MP was running his mouth off in the press about Champions League. How can the team be focussed if the manager isnt ?

[The Kraken]

Shouldnt be like this. I reckon 1 more point will be enough, and we should have got that last week. But MP was running his mouth off in the press about Champions League. How can the team be focussed if the manager isnt ?

 

Talk of anything next season, let alone Champions League nonsense, is irresponsible. Get this job done first, then you can start "aiming for the stars" or other such platitudes.

[VectisSaint]

Can't see it myself. Their 0-0 against Man City was a welcome tonic but it seems as if Swansea have been on the beach for ages. I can't see anything but a comfortable home win.

 

We'll get a draw against Sunderland and a win against Stoke; but it's still going down to the wire, and a win for Wigan is really going to put the cat amongst the pigeons.

This. Add the fact that Swansea will be without Michu as well. Most likely outcome of this match is a win for Wigan in my opinion.

[SaintBobby]

great piece of work Bobby, except the dates!!!! Monday (today) is the 6th May, and Tuesday is the 7th

 

D'oh. Thanks, fixed it!

[Mr Saints]

Feel more confident after reading that, cheers Bob!

[SaintBobby]

And how will the Man city game influence the league as its the FA Cup final ?

 

I think you will find that Bobby has put this in as it could possibly affect the team that Wigan could put out.

 

Plus, any injuries to the Wigan team have an effect. As would any red cards.

[S-Clarke]

This. Add the fact that Swansea will be without Michu as well. Most likely outcome of this match is a win for Wigan in my opinion.

 

I dunno, got a funny feeling for Swansea.

 

The fact is, that after their amazing season, they'll be only 5 points off the drop if Wigan win. 5 points. It's insane. They won't go down, but 5 points isn't a great deal.

 

They want a top 10 finish and letting Wigan win will most likely mean they'll finish bottom half and near relegation, not a great preparation. They're without Michu, but they're a good side.

 

It's a tougher one for Wigan as all the world is looking at them, everything is on this one game for them. They've created an expectation based on their previous end-of-season exploits (they had better players then, though) I'm pretty certain that they need to win this to survive, if they don't I can't see a way out for them. That sort of pressure can do some weird things.

 

I don't think Wigan are good enough or strong enough to win 3 on the bounce, prove me wrong, but I think they'll come unstuck to a collective sigh of relief from the bottom half of the PL. I don't think i'm being arrogant i'm just looking at how Wigan have been over the last 4 years. Absolute dross. They're got a weaker squad this year than they've, ever, ever had - add to that their injuries. I'm pretty confident to be honest, I think Swansea are light years ahead of them quality wise, and the points gap just isn't a fair reflection.

[alpine_saint]

Talk of anything next season, let alone Champions League nonsense, is irresponsible. Get this job done first, then you can start "aiming for the stars" or other such platitudes.

 

I agree, but its an affliction that we have witnessed on this site too..

[DuncanRG]

Wigan are far too unpredictable to really pay much thought to. We'll just have to wait and see, and hope they falter.

[Rut]

Good stuff. Also need to add that just because a team needs to win doesn't mean that they will.

 

Remember the last day of the season in 2005? Fulham v Norwich. Fulham had nothing to play for. Norwich had to win to stay up. Norwich were backed into odds-on to win. They had 1000's of fans there ready to celebrate. Final score was 6-0 to Fulham.

 

Teams down the bottom don't suddenly become world-beaters just because they have to.

[KelvinsRightGlove]

I agree, but its an affliction that we have witnessed on this site too..

 

So people on here saying it is an outside possibility if a hell of a lot of things fell in to place has an effect on the team?

 

[DuncanRG]

Good stuff. Also need to add that just because a team needs to win doesn't mean that they will.

 

Remember the last day of the season in 2005? Fulham v Norwich. Fulham had nothing to play for. Norwich had to win to stay up. Norwich were backed into odds-on to win. They had 1000's of fans there ready to celebrate. Final score was 6-0 to Fulham.

 

Teams down the bottom don't suddenly become world-beaters just because they have to.

 

This is also important to remember. Nobody seems to think we'll walk over Stoke if they've got nothing to play for last day of the season.

[dellboypete]

Excellent summary! Can you just add the key games on the final day for completeness? Ta!

 

This season has been surreal in many ways and I'm sure the last couple of games are going to have even more twists and turns.

[shurlock]

A win against Sunderland will see us safe.

Even a draw should be enough, meaning that regardless of the Stoke result, Sunderland will have to get a result at Spurs -and most probably have to beat them.

[BlakeySFC]

We're all going on a Championship tour!

[Turkish]

I agree, but its an affliction that we have witnessed on this site too..

 

 

It's embarassing, it really is. We are quick to label other clubs fans as arrogant yet here all the talk is of champions league football, bigger stadiums and man for man most players in the entire league wouldn't get into our side, yet tomorrow night we could only be one point above the relegation zone, you couldn't make it up. If Sunderland, Norwich or Newcastle fans were talking about champions league football everyone would laugh at them. I'm all for ambition but we're not even sure we'll be in the premier league next season FFS.

[Matthew Le God]

Tomorrow night we could only be one point above the relegation zone.

 

Well if you use the table for a negative slant, why not the positive slant?

 

As a newly promoted side with 2 games left Saints are only 2 points away from 11th (and play that team at home on last day of the season) and only 4 points away from 9th.

 

As things stand tonight, Saints are as close to 9th as they are 18th in terms of points.

 

It's embarassing, it really is.

 

It is, but not for the reasons you gave.

Edited 6 May, 2013 by Matthew Le God

[DuncanRG]

^ Seriously this. The bottom half of the table is unbelievably tight and a good team could go down. A team with more realistic ambitions of getting into Europe next season might go down (Newcastle). The Champions League stuff was already a bit much but don't use our current position as justification because we are also very close to the top half. The problem, as always, is fickleness - if we had lost against West Ham and Swansea, then drawn against West Brom and Spurs we might be a bit more positive despite having the exact same points and exact same form as we do now. You can talk about 'upwards momentum' but teams do lose after winning runs, and do win after losing streaks. It happens.

[SaintBobby]

Excellent summary! Can you just add the key games on the final day for completeness? Ta!

 

This season has been surreal in many ways and I'm sure the last couple of games are going to have even more twists and turns.

 

I'll try and update as things unfold. The purpose of this thread was to explain how Saints might be safe before the final day though.

[Charlie Wayman]

Speculative nonsense designed to make you all feel good. What matters is what takes place on the field on Sunday. The world is full of What-Ifs but facts are in the future and remain unpredictable except in hindsight. If we can't stay up by our own efforts then what's the point?

 

What kind of team and fans settle for being less worse than their rivals?

[CB Fry]

Speculative nonsense designed to make you all feel good. What matters is what takes place on the field on Sunday. The world is full of What-Ifs but facts are in the future and remain unpredictable except in hindsight. If we can't stay up by our own efforts then what's the point?

 

What kind of team and fans settle for being less worse than their rivals?

 

 

Errr...we're four points clear with a vastly superior goal difference of our" rivals". It also means we are currently staying up by our "own efforts".

 

Doesn't stop this forum being chock full of utter bellends grizzling and whinging like we're bottom of the league and dribbling about Wigan like they are world football's most ruthless and efficicient winning machine.

 

Its the doom merchants that are far, far more obsessed with "rivals" (BUT WIGAN WILL WIN EVERY GAME WIGAN WIN WIGAN WIN WIGAN WIN) than the rest of us.

[alpine_saint]

Errr...we're four points clear with a vastly superior goal difference of our" rivals". It also means we are currently staying up by our "own efforts".

 

Doesn't stop this forum being chock full of utter bellends grizzling and whinging like we're bottom of the league and dribbling about Wigan like they are world football's most ruthless and efficicient winning machine.

Its the doom merchants that are far, far more obsessed with "rivals" (BUT WIGAN WILL WIN EVERY GAME WIGAN WIN WIGAN WIN WIGAN WIN) than the rest of us.

 

Well, they are doing a pretty good job imitating it at the moment. Better than we are. The appear to be the 2011-2013 equivalent of us in the mid 90s.

 

As much as you sneer about them not winning every game, they are picking up far more points than us.

[DuncanRG]

Our five-game form is actually exactly the same, it just so happens that they won last week.

[Turkish]

Well if you use the table for a negative slant, why not the positive slant?

 

As a newly promoted side with 2 games left Saints are only 2 points away from 11th (and play that team at home on last day of the season) and only 4 points away from 9th.

 

As things stand tonight, Saints are as close to 9th as they are 18th in terms of points.

 

 

 

It is, but not for the reasons you gave.

 

As i've said for weeks whilst you and your little band of head in the clouders were banging on about how great it is that team below us were beating teams in midtable, lets make ourselves safe first then worry about finishing as high a we can. It seems to have completely escaped some peoples grasps that it is possible for Saints to be caught by the teams below us as well and the gap is closing.

[alpine_saint]

Our five-game form is actually exactly the same, it just so happens that they won last week.

 

Whats the 20-game form like ? Dont see the relevance of your comment. From the last 2 games we've picked up none, theyve picked up 4 and were close to 6. Against the two teams we've lost to in that time.

[alpine_saint]

As i've said for weeks whilst you and your little band of head in the clouders were banging on about how great it is that team below us were beating teams in midtable, lets make ourselves safe first then worry about finishing as high a we can. It seems to have completely escaped some peoples grasps that it is possible for Saints to be caught by the teams below us as well and the gap is closing.

 

Yep, some seriously weird denial karma going on around here.

[Turkish]

Yep, some seriously weird denial karma going on around here.

 

some seemed to think it was impossible for us to go on a bad run, instead thinking we were going to go on an unstoppable romp to a top half finish, we haven't put that sort of form together all season, so not sure whey they felt it was going to happen now. I found the whole thing about people wanting teams below us to beat teams above us very odd and arrogant. The priority this season was alwasy to stay up, then to build next season, that means putting as much distance between the bottom clubs and us as possible. The arrogance that is sweeping the club and fanbase with talk of champions league football and moving to the next level whilst in a relegation battle could make a lot of people look very stupid. of course, any feet on the ground realism is dismissed on here as negativity and trolling.