tisspahars Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 Just to put things in context. No, we are not safe, but the facts are we have been excellent for most of the season, were excellent and unlucky today, and are extremely unlikely to go down.
Batman Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 why does anyone need betting odds to be told if we are safe or not.? betting odds seem to be all the rage at the mo
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 Just to put things in context. No, we are not safe, but the facts are we have been excellent for most of the season, were excellent and unlucky today, and are extremely unlikely to go down. Come on you doom mongers get your money on that....nailed on sure bet that....
Didcot Saint Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 If we loose our next two games we are going down. End of and it doesn't matter how good we've been and what the odds are the other sides are all picking up points.
James Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 If we loose our next two games we are going down. End of and it doesn't matter how good we've been and what the odds are the other sides are all picking up points. Except Norwich...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 If we loose our next two games we are going down. End of and it doesn't matter how good we've been and what the odds are the other sides are all picking up points. Only IF all the other teams get 40 points or 39 and better our goal difference
kpturner Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 If we loose our next two games we are going down. End of and it doesn't matter how good we've been and what the odds are the other sides are all picking up points. It is "lose" ffs!
Rasiak-9- Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 If we loose our next two games we are going down. End of and it doesn't matter how good we've been and what the odds are the other sides are all picking up points. Psh. S'obviously patently not the case, as in it is still unlikely that the 3rd bottom team will finish with (what will have to be) 40 points, but nevertheless you might well be right. Certainly if we still need points, and only have two games to get them, we're not safe.
Sheaf Saint Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 I cheekily stuck a tenner on at 100/1 a few weeks back as a safety net, using the logic that I never win bets and therefore we would stay up. I have to say, after today's results it's looking more likely I'm actually gonna be collecting a grand later this month. Every cloud and all that.
trousers Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 I stuck my WBA winnings (£100) on relegation at 80-1 last week. Never in the history of mankind has someone wished they don't win £8,000...
RedWillie Posted 4 May, 2013 Posted 4 May, 2013 Likewise - put £15.00 at 80-1 in the week just to soften any blow. Just hoping I don't get a payout - weird.
spyinthesky Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Likewise - put £15.00 at 80-1 in the week just to soften any blow. Just hoping I don't get a payout - weird. Another pessimist here!! Got 150/1 with Betfair a few weeks back (subject to maximum bet limit) Also got money on elsewhere at 80/1 and most recently 66/1 with Ladbookes Another one who wishes not to be paid out but if the worst happens I have my season ticket paid financed for the next 10 years or so!!
adrian lord Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Wasnt it 100/1 2 weeks ago, and 80/1 last week ? The trend-line sees us relegated!
Georgie Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Wasnt it 100/1 2 weeks ago, and 80/1 last week ? Was still 150/1 with bet365. Their down to 25-1 all something now :-/ best is 66/1 but can't remember who with.
for_heaven's_Saint Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 The reason the odds are going down so quickly is because you lot keep lumping money on it!!
Batman Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 who cares whats the odds are we are effectively 5 points clear, with 2 games to go and play sunderland and stoke
KK the 2nd Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 why does anyone need betting odds to be told if we are safe or not.? betting odds seem to be all the rage at the mo Provides some comfort in that we really should stay up and you can ease the worry by a small, or otherwise, bet (I've had a sneaky tenner at 40/1 with Bet365 after Saturday's result, which I really hope loses). The other reason is that it helps put into some perspective our real chances. The bookies analysis these things unemotionally and not like some of the "wrist-slitters" on here.
alpine_saint Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Provides some comfort in that we really should stay up and you can ease the worry by a small, or otherwise, bet (I've had a sneaky tenner at 40/1 with Bet365 after Saturday's result, which I really hope loses). The other reason is that it helps put into some perspective our real chances. The bookies analysis these things unemotionally and not like some of the "wrist-slitters" on here. Or the happy-clappies, for that matter. These unemotional analysts you refer to are gradually shortening the odds on us. And you are taking comfort from this ?
Saints boy in Leeds Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 I stuck my WBA winnings (£100) on relegation at 80-1 last week. Never in the history of mankind has someone wished they don't win £8,000... I'll be more than happy to collect it for you if you want, 20% sound ok ?
Nigel=God-Poyet=Sod Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 I also saw Skybet's odds after West Brom last week and stuck £20 on at 80/1. Seriously don't want to end up with £1600, although it would pay for the whole family's season tickets for next year in the Championship.....
DuncanRG Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Or the happy-clappies, for that matter. These unemotional analysts you refer to are gradually shortening the odds on us. And you are taking comfort from this ? So long as the odds stay far longer than they are for other teams!
VectisSaint Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Or the happy-clappies, for that matter. These unemotional analysts you refer to are gradually shortening the odds on us. And you are taking comfort from this ? There is nothing gradual about it. The odds change after each game or set of games. The odds will change tonight and also tomorrow night depending on the results of the games that affect us. 7 days ago the odds were 95-1, that was before the final whistle of the Villa v Sunderland match (but after Villa scored their 5th). As long as we are not odds-on it is OK, and that is unlikely to happen until a week next Sunday.
Rut Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 After the poor start Saints went odds-on to be relegated (think we started the season at around 5/4 to go down anyway). So seeing us at (currently) 33/1 to be relegated with 2 games remaining is quite blissful. To go down 4 teams have to do better than us between now and the end of the season. There's no 'Huddersfield' in this lot. This is the bottom of the league.
Deano6 Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 So basically nobody anywhere thinks there is a more than 5% chance of us being relegated.
Eric The Red Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Just looked up the odds and it appears that Stoke are 500-1 with Bet 365. I know they are nearly safe but were so bad tonight 0 points from their last 2 games must be on the cards, worth a bet?
Whitey Grandad Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Just looked up the odds and it appears that Stoke are 500-1 with Bet 365. I know they are nearly safe but were so bad tonight 0 points from their last 2 games must be on the cards, worth a bet? Save your money, they aren't going down.
Saint_clark Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Just looked up the odds and it appears that Stoke are 500-1 with Bet 365. I know they are nearly safe but were so bad tonight 0 points from their last 2 games must be on the cards, worth a bet? Worth a quid maybe, but just look at how many teams beneath them need to pick up points.
Lighthouse Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 I stuck my WBA winnings (£100) on relegation at 80-1 last week. Never in the history of mankind has someone wished they don't win £8,000... Call me a plastic but I'd probably take a year or 2 in the NpC for £8,000. As much as I want Saints to stay up, being in the NpC really isn't the end of the world.
Saint_clark Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Call me a plastic but I'd probably take a year or 2 in the NpC for £8,000. As much as I want Saints to stay up, being in the NpC really isn't the end of the world. Completely agree. Only thing that wouldn't make it bearable is the smug "told you so's" from people who don't like Cortese.
BlakeySFC Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 I'd urge anyone to put a bet on that, it's basically like printing money.
Lighthouse Posted 6 May, 2013 Posted 6 May, 2013 Completely agree. Only thing that wouldn't make it bearable is the smug "told you so's" from people who don't like Cortese. Have you seen Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back? If not don't worry, it's dreadful but at the end of it they come in to a lot of money and jet around the world beating up all the internet trolls who wound them up. Better than adding them to the ignore list.
SaintBobby Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 I'd urge anyone to put a bet on that, it's basically like printing money. If you put money on at 100/1 (I assume you did), you can now lay it off at a big profit anyway.
SaintBobby Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 So basically nobody anywhere thinks there is a more than 5% chance of us being relegated. Nope. About 1% IMHO.
BlakeySFC Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 Why is everyone so sure we'll stay up? I'm not saying this just to wine on about us going down (as usual) but as a genuine question. I've heard on this forum, from mates, overhearing conversations on away coaches etc. that people 'never thought we'd go down' in 04/05 and that everyone 'thought we'd beat United easily' on the last day of the season. Just wondering why this is? We go on and on about other teams being 'arrogant, deluded' etc. but do we just all collectively rate our squad, players and team TOO highly? I'm guilty of this too as I feel we've got a much better team than pretty much every other team from 10th down in the Prem, so why haven't we been able to convert our quality on paper to quality on grass? The first 6 games perhaps can be described as 'Us finding our feet' and 'having a very tough first 6 games' but after that I don't really understand why we've struggled with the squad we've got? But here we are with 2 games left, 4 points clear of the relegation zone (it'll probably be 1 point clear at this time tomorrow). Is it just 'typical Saints' or do we expect too much of our young squad?
SaintBobby Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 Why is everyone so sure we'll stay up? I'm not saying this just to wine on about us going down (as usual) but as a genuine question. I've heard on this forum, from mates, overhearing conversations on away coaches etc. that people 'never thought we'd go down' in 04/05 and that everyone 'thought we'd beat United easily' on the last day of the season. Just wondering why this is? We go on and on about other teams being 'arrogant, deluded' etc. but do we just all collectively rate our squad, players and team TOO highly? I'm guilty of this too as I feel we've got a much better team than pretty much every other team from 10th down in the Prem, so why haven't we been able to convert our quality on paper to quality on grass? The first 6 games perhaps can be described as 'Us finding our feet' and 'having a very tough first 6 games' but after that I don't really understand why we've struggled with the squad we've got? But here we are with 2 games left, 4 points clear of the relegation zone (it'll probably be 1 point clear at this time tomorrow). Is it just 'typical Saints' or do we expect too much of our young squad? Because the situation this year is very different to having to beat Man United. Having to get one point from Sunderland or Stoke is a bit easier than having to get 3 from Man Utd. Also, knowing that getting zero points might well be enough also helps. In 04/05, it went down to any 3 from 4 to be relegated, if I remember rightly, on the last day. This time, it's any 1 from 7 (or possibly eight). And 4 of those 7 are definitely going to be below us whatever happens tomorrow. The angst about why we aren't in the top 10? Why are we in a relegation scrap instead? etc etc is largely guff. There's virtually no difference between 10th and a relegation scrap. HTH.
trousers Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 I'll be more than happy to collect it for you if you want, 20% sound ok ? I won't win.... (says Trousers almost convincing himself!)
Kingsbridge Saint Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 I got £10 on at 150/1 after the WBA game. Also had a saver on Newcastle at 9/1 which I hope to collect on.
NewYorkSaint Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 It really distresses me when people panic without looking at the real numbers. This site http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html ...calculates all possible outcomes with odds based on playing records. It gives us a 1.3% chance of relegation. Even if we lose both remaining games there's only a 10% chance we go down. 25 to 1 odds are a real ripoff. We're far more likely to finish top 10 (7% chance) than to be relegated. It can happen. But it won't. Instead of panicking, let's dream of 2 wins and the possibility of leapfrogging Stove, Vila, Fulham and one of West Ham or (final day) Stoke and ending 10th. Also unlikely. But far higher chance than relegation. C'mon Saints. Let's end with some joy!
alpine_saint Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 It really distresses me when people panic without looking at the real numbers. This site http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html ...calculates all possible outcomes with odds based on playing records. It gives us a 1.3% chance of relegation. Even if we lose both remaining games there's only a 10% chance we go down. 25 to 1 odds are a real ripoff. We're far more likely to finish top 10 (7% chance) than to be relegated. It can happen. But it won't. Instead of panicking, let's dream of 2 wins and the possibility of leapfrogging Stove, Vila, Fulham and one of West Ham or (final day) Stoke and ending 10th. Also unlikely. But far higher chance than relegation. C'mon Saints. Let's end with some joy! With your user name, please forgive me in making the assumption that you are a NewYorker with a recently developed love for Saints, rather than an ex-pat. You clearly arent savvy with the Saints obsession with making straightforward things difficult or snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...
St Lej Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 Interestingly, you can get just over 9/1 on Wigan , Norwich and Newcastle all winning their next game. Just stuck a fiver on, £45 pay out. Not bad as i can easily see all 3 winning. All favourites in my eyes, regardless of Norwich and Toon's recent form.
Cestrian Saint Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 I put money on us to go down when we were 100-1 and 80-1. Looking forward to a bumper pay day to soften the blow.
david in sweden Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 Just to put things in context. No, we are not safe, but the facts are we have been excellent for most of the season, were excellent and unlucky today, and are extremely unlikely to go down. sounds like good odds to me, but if it pays out ..I wouldn't brag about it too much. You might win the bet, but won't win many friends on here:(
Saint Without a Halo Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 (edited) If we loose our next two games we are going down. End of and it doesn't matter how good we've been and what the odds are the other sides are all picking up points. youm are mistaken we were never likely to go down on 39 points with our goal difference what it is! that is why we have the odds we do! of course it was possible but actually highly improbable as it turned out! Edited 7 May, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo
PhilippineSaint Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 Odds must be better now after the Wigan defeat?
Saint Without a Halo Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html 0.385 % (250 to 1) of being relegated 20% (5 to 1) chance of 11th! After Wigans result
The9 Posted 7 May, 2013 Posted 7 May, 2013 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html 0.385 % (250 to 1) of being relegated 20% (5 to 1) chance of 11th! After Wigans result They were quick with that update tonight !
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now