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40/1 to be relegated currently on Betfair.


tisspahars

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Just to put things in context. No, we are not safe, but the facts are we have been excellent for most of the season, were excellent and unlucky today, and are extremely unlikely to go down.

 

Come on you doom mongers get your money on that....nailed on sure bet that....

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If we loose our next two games we are going down. End of and it doesn't matter how good we've been and what the odds are the other sides are all picking up points.

 

Only IF all the other teams get 40 points or 39 and better our goal difference

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If we loose our next two games we are going down. End of and it doesn't matter how good we've been and what the odds are the other sides are all picking up points.

 

Psh. S'obviously patently not the case, as in it is still unlikely that the 3rd bottom team will finish with (what will have to be) 40 points, but nevertheless you might well be right. Certainly if we still need points, and only have two games to get them, we're not safe.

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I cheekily stuck a tenner on at 100/1 a few weeks back as a safety net, using the logic that I never win bets and therefore we would stay up.

 

I have to say, after today's results it's looking more likely I'm actually gonna be collecting a grand later this month. Every cloud and all that.

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Likewise - put £15.00 at 80-1 in the week just to soften any blow. Just hoping I don't get a payout - weird.

 

Another pessimist here!!

 

Got 150/1 with Betfair a few weeks back (subject to maximum bet limit)

 

Also got money on elsewhere at 80/1 and most recently 66/1 with Ladbookes

 

Another one who wishes not to be paid out but if the worst happens I have my season ticket paid financed for the next 10 years or so!!

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why does anyone need betting odds to be told if we are safe or not.?

betting odds seem to be all the rage at the mo

 

Provides some comfort in that we really should stay up and you can ease the worry by a small, or otherwise, bet (I've had a sneaky tenner at 40/1 with Bet365 after Saturday's result, which I really hope loses).

 

The other reason is that it helps put into some perspective our real chances. The bookies analysis these things unemotionally and not like some of the "wrist-slitters" on here.

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Provides some comfort in that we really should stay up and you can ease the worry by a small, or otherwise, bet (I've had a sneaky tenner at 40/1 with Bet365 after Saturday's result, which I really hope loses).

 

The other reason is that it helps put into some perspective our real chances. The bookies analysis these things unemotionally and not like some of the "wrist-slitters" on here.

 

Or the happy-clappies, for that matter.

 

These unemotional analysts you refer to are gradually shortening the odds on us. And you are taking comfort from this ?

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Or the happy-clappies, for that matter.

 

These unemotional analysts you refer to are gradually shortening the odds on us. And you are taking comfort from this ?

 

So long as the odds stay far longer than they are for other teams!

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Or the happy-clappies, for that matter.

 

These unemotional analysts you refer to are gradually shortening the odds on us. And you are taking comfort from this ?

There is nothing gradual about it. The odds change after each game or set of games. The odds will change tonight and also tomorrow night depending on the results of the games that affect us. 7 days ago the odds were 95-1, that was before the final whistle of the Villa v Sunderland match (but after Villa scored their 5th). As long as we are not odds-on it is OK, and that is unlikely to happen until a week next Sunday.

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After the poor start Saints went odds-on to be relegated (think we started the season at around 5/4 to go down anyway). So seeing us at (currently) 33/1 to be relegated with 2 games remaining is quite blissful.

 

To go down 4 teams have to do better than us between now and the end of the season. There's no 'Huddersfield' in this lot. This is the bottom of the league.

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Just looked up the odds and it appears that Stoke are 500-1 with Bet 365. I know they are nearly safe but were so bad tonight 0 points from their last 2 games must be on the cards, worth a bet?

 

Worth a quid maybe, but just look at how many teams beneath them need to pick up points.

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I stuck my WBA winnings (£100) on relegation at 80-1 last week. Never in the history of mankind has someone wished they don't win £8,000...

 

Call me a plastic but I'd probably take a year or 2 in the NpC for £8,000. As much as I want Saints to stay up, being in the NpC really isn't the end of the world.

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Call me a plastic but I'd probably take a year or 2 in the NpC for £8,000. As much as I want Saints to stay up, being in the NpC really isn't the end of the world.

 

Completely agree. Only thing that wouldn't make it bearable is the smug "told you so's" from people who don't like Cortese.

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Completely agree. Only thing that wouldn't make it bearable is the smug "told you so's" from people who don't like Cortese.

 

Have you seen Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back? If not don't worry, it's dreadful but at the end of it they come in to a lot of money and jet around the world beating up all the internet trolls who wound them up. Better than adding them to the ignore list.

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Why is everyone so sure we'll stay up?

 

I'm not saying this just to wine on about us going down (as usual) but as a genuine question.

 

I've heard on this forum, from mates, overhearing conversations on away coaches etc. that people 'never thought we'd go down' in 04/05 and that everyone 'thought we'd beat United easily' on the last day of the season.

 

Just wondering why this is?

 

We go on and on about other teams being 'arrogant, deluded' etc. but do we just all collectively rate our squad, players and team TOO highly?

 

I'm guilty of this too as I feel we've got a much better team than pretty much every other team from 10th down in the Prem, so why haven't we been able to convert our quality on paper to quality on grass?

 

The first 6 games perhaps can be described as 'Us finding our feet' and 'having a very tough first 6 games' but after that I don't really understand why we've struggled with the squad we've got?

 

But here we are with 2 games left, 4 points clear of the relegation zone (it'll probably be 1 point clear at this time tomorrow).

 

Is it just 'typical Saints' or do we expect too much of our young squad?

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Why is everyone so sure we'll stay up?

 

I'm not saying this just to wine on about us going down (as usual) but as a genuine question.

 

I've heard on this forum, from mates, overhearing conversations on away coaches etc. that people 'never thought we'd go down' in 04/05 and that everyone 'thought we'd beat United easily' on the last day of the season.

 

Just wondering why this is?

 

We go on and on about other teams being 'arrogant, deluded' etc. but do we just all collectively rate our squad, players and team TOO highly?

 

I'm guilty of this too as I feel we've got a much better team than pretty much every other team from 10th down in the Prem, so why haven't we been able to convert our quality on paper to quality on grass?

 

The first 6 games perhaps can be described as 'Us finding our feet' and 'having a very tough first 6 games' but after that I don't really understand why we've struggled with the squad we've got?

 

But here we are with 2 games left, 4 points clear of the relegation zone (it'll probably be 1 point clear at this time tomorrow).

 

Is it just 'typical Saints' or do we expect too much of our young squad?

 

Because the situation this year is very different to having to beat Man United. Having to get one point from Sunderland or Stoke is a bit easier than having to get 3 from Man Utd. Also, knowing that getting zero points might well be enough also helps.

 

In 04/05, it went down to any 3 from 4 to be relegated, if I remember rightly, on the last day.

 

This time, it's any 1 from 7 (or possibly eight). And 4 of those 7 are definitely going to be below us whatever happens tomorrow.

 

The angst about why we aren't in the top 10? Why are we in a relegation scrap instead? etc etc is largely guff. There's virtually no difference between 10th and a relegation scrap.

 

HTH.

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It really distresses me when people panic without looking at the real numbers. This site

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

...calculates all possible outcomes with odds based on playing records. It gives us a 1.3% chance of relegation. Even if we lose both remaining games there's only a 10% chance we go down. 25 to 1 odds are a real ripoff. We're far more likely to finish top 10 (7% chance) than to be relegated. It can happen. But it won't. Instead of panicking, let's dream of 2 wins and the possibility of leapfrogging Stove, Vila, Fulham and one of West Ham or (final day) Stoke and ending 10th. Also unlikely. But far higher chance than relegation. C'mon Saints. Let's end with some joy!

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It really distresses me when people panic without looking at the real numbers. This site

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

...calculates all possible outcomes with odds based on playing records. It gives us a 1.3% chance of relegation. Even if we lose both remaining games there's only a 10% chance we go down. 25 to 1 odds are a real ripoff. We're far more likely to finish top 10 (7% chance) than to be relegated. It can happen. But it won't. Instead of panicking, let's dream of 2 wins and the possibility of leapfrogging Stove, Vila, Fulham and one of West Ham or (final day) Stoke and ending 10th. Also unlikely. But far higher chance than relegation. C'mon Saints. Let's end with some joy!

 

With your user name, please forgive me in making the assumption that you are a NewYorker with a recently developed love for Saints, rather than an ex-pat. You clearly arent savvy with the Saints obsession with making straightforward things difficult or snatching defeat from the jaws of victory... ;)

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Interestingly, you can get just over 9/1 on Wigan , Norwich and Newcastle all winning their next game. Just stuck a fiver on, £45 pay out. Not bad as i can easily see all 3 winning. All favourites in my eyes, regardless of Norwich and Toon's recent form.

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Just to put things in context. No, we are not safe, but the facts are we have been excellent for most of the season, were excellent and unlucky today, and are extremely unlikely to go down.

 

sounds like good odds to me, but if it pays out ..I wouldn't brag about it too much. You might win the bet, but won't win many friends on here:(

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If we loose our next two games we are going down. End of and it doesn't matter how good we've been and what the odds are the other sides are all picking up points.

 

youm are mistaken we were never likely to go down on 39 points with our goal difference what it is! that is why we have the odds we do! of course it was possible but actually highly improbable as it turned out!

Edited by Saint Without a Halo
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