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I've just stuck a tenner on saints to get relegated

gr00031

By gr00031,
in The Saints

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Deano6

Deano6

Posted
Posted
On betfair was 100/1 so returns a grand. Don't see us getting any more points. Maybe negative, but would certainly help if it does happen

 

I bet you a tenner Saints don't lose all their games. You win the bet if they do even if it doesn't end in relegation.

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Saint_Tony

Saint_Tony

Posted
Posted

It's quite significant that on most online bookmakers we are not even quoted, so you'd have to email them for a price. Even so, theres nothing wrong with having a tenner on, at least if it did happen, (highly unlikely), you get something out of it. Best to cover yourself at such big odds

 

Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk 2

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NewYorkSaint

NewYorkSaint

Posted
Posted

According to this brilliant website:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

...chances of relegation for Saints are 0.1%. 1000 to 1 would have been a fairer price. But if it stopped you worrying, I'm sure £10 well spent. The same site says we still have 1 in 11 chance of finishing top half of table. More interesting and uplifting bet for me!

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted (edited)

I've just stuck an extra £100 on my wife's life insurance policy.

 

I obviously hope she isn't mowed down by a bus tomorrow morning, as I love and adore her to bits.

 

But if she is actually smashed into a ghastly mush of guts and blood on the tarmac tomorrow, at least this will soften the blow.

Edited by SaintBobby
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KelvinsRightGlove

KelvinsRightGlove

Posted
Posted

I still don't get the rationale of people who think we are going down.

 

I keep trying to put this in different ways to show how odd it is.

 

Let me try again. Wigan would need to amass at least 8-9 points, given their goal difference. With 4 Games left for them to play thats around 2 - 2.25 points per game, or over double the 0.94 points per game that have averaged this season so far.

 

Or, they have won 8 games of 34, or 1 win every 4.25 games. Hardly suggests they are likely to win 3 of their last 4 games.

 

I like Wigan, they are quite well run and Martinez seems like a decent guy, that tries to get them playing football. But, the chances of them finishing with more points than us is infinitesimal.

 

Sorry lad, you might as well have eaten that £10.

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Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

Posted
Posted
I still don't get the rationale of people who think we are going down.

 

I keep trying to put this in different ways to show how odd it is.

 

Let me try again. Wigan would need to amass at least 8-9 points, given their goal difference. With 4 Games left for them to play thats around 2 - 2.25 points per game, or over double the 0.94 points per game that have averaged this season so far.

 

Or, they have won 8 games of 34, or 1 win every 4.25 games. Hardly suggests they are likely to win 3 of their last 4 games.

 

I like Wigan, they are quite well run and Martinez seems like a decent guy, that tries to get them playing football. But, the chances of them finishing with more points than us is infinitesimal.

 

Sorry lad, you might as well have eaten that £10.

 

But this is Saints fans all over, they swing from one extreme to the other at the slightest setback. On the OS the poll showed that over 80% expected us to win against West Brom who are a decent side. A draw was a good result for us even. So we lost 3-0 and now manic-depression is setting in again, perhaps we have a lot of bi-polar disorder amongst our supporters, who knows.

 

We have done well of late but when that happens fans expect it to continue for ever and to be honest we just don't have the squad to win every game. The lads have done fantastically well of late but they're not robots and some are obviously at less than 100 % but our poor squad depth means that they're playing 90 minutes anyway.

 

We will probably get another 3 or 4 points this season but even if we don't the lads have done enough and they know it, pity that a lot of supporters don't.

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KelvinsRightGlove

KelvinsRightGlove

Posted
Posted
But this is Saints fans all over, they swing from one extreme to the other at the slightest setback. On the OS the poll showed that over 80% expected us to win against West Brom who are a decent side. A draw was a good result for us even. So we lost 3-0 and now manic-depression is setting in again, perhaps we have a lot of bi-polar disorder amongst our supporters, who knows.

 

We have done well of late but when that happens fans expect it to continue for ever and to be honest we just don't have the squad to win every game. The lads have done fantastically well of late but they're not robots and some are obviously at less than 100 % but our poor squad depth means that they're playing 90 minutes anyway.

 

We will probably get another 3 or 4 points this season but even if we don't the lads have done enough and they know it, pity that a lot of supporters don't.

 

The thing is, all of my above post, ignores the fact that for us to be relegated, 4 other teams, in addition to Wigan need to out perform us. And that is made EVEN harder by the fact that Villa & Wigan play each other on the last day.

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Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

Posted
Posted
The thing is, all of my above post, ignores the fact that for us to be relegated, 4 other teams, in addition to Wigan need to out perform us. And that is made EVEN harder by the fact that Villa & Wigan play each other on the last day.

 

but when they go into nervous nelly mode nothing sinks in, they just see a black hole and nothing else; It's been that way for years. The best time was the great escape, few expected anything and each game saw a bit more euphoria creeping in.

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted
I still don't get the rationale of people who think we are going down.

 

I keep trying to put this in different ways to show how odd it is.

 

Let me try again. Wigan would need to amass at least 8-9 points, given their goal difference. With 4 Games left for them to play thats around 2 - 2.25 points per game, or over double the 0.94 points per game that have averaged this season so far.

 

Or, they have won 8 games of 34, or 1 win every 4.25 games. Hardly suggests they are likely to win 3 of their last 4 games.

 

I like Wigan, they are quite well run and Martinez seems like a decent guy, that tries to get them playing football. But, the chances of them finishing with more points than us is infinitesimal.

 

Sorry lad, you might as well have eaten that £10.

 

Would that logic have seen Wigan relegated last season...? ;)

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Dan

Dan

Posted
Posted

If you don't like a thread people, here's a thought don't post on it.

 

But for the original poster, I get your thinking behind it, it makes sense.

 

Me and a mate lumped on saints to stay up when we were bottom. I'm planning on doing this bet just to cover myself just incase!

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted

Just to keep people updated, after last night's Villa win we've moved out to a massive 0.178% likely (from around 0.08 ). Losing all three matches now makes us 2.4% likely to go down at the moment (up from around 1.8%).

 

If we lose on Saturday we will obviously become slightly more likely to get relegated again... but if Wigan lose too they're 83.8% doomed.

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Whitey Grandad

Whitey Grandad

Posted
Posted

I fully understand all the odds and statistics but they relate to the situation at the end of the season. My concern is that we could be going into the game at Stoke needing a point or three to be certain of security, so a more relevant question for me is 'what are the odds that we will be safe before kick-off at 16:00 on May 19th?'

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted
I still don't get the rationale of people who think we are going down.

 

I keep trying to put this in different ways to show how odd it is.

 

Let me try again. Wigan would need to amass at least 8-9 points, given their goal difference. With 4 Games left for them to play thats around 2 - 2.25 points per game, or over double the 0.94 points per game that have averaged this season so far.

 

Or, they have won 8 games of 34, or 1 win every 4.25 games. Hardly suggests they are likely to win 3 of their last 4 games.

 

I like Wigan, they are quite well run and Martinez seems like a decent guy, that tries to get them playing football. But, the chances of them finishing with more points than us is infinitesimal.

 

Sorry lad, you might as well have eaten that £10.

 

Thing is, even if Wigan win the first 3 matches we're still basically only in a 4/5/6-way fight for the one remaining place with the teams around us (ok we won't be by the time that happens, but that's the situation at the moment).

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted (edited)
I fully understand all the odds and statistics but they relate to the situation at the end of the season. My concern is that we could be going into the game at Stoke needing a point or three to be certain of security, so a more relevant question for me is 'what are the odds that we will be safe before kick-off at 16:00 on May 19th?'

 

We're 7 points ahead with a much better GD, so they have to win 3 matches or win 2 and draw 2 just to catch us.

 

So that's basically "what are the odds on Wigan getting at most 1 point from the next 2 matches", because if they LL DL or LD they can't catch us by the time the final match comes around. But then there's the possibility of Saints picking up points too....

 

FWIW, and I know bookies' odds are not the same as probability due to the markets but that's all we've got :

West Brom v Wigan

West Brom (7/5) 41.67%

Draw (5/2) = 28.6%

Wigan (11/5) = 31.25%

 

and

Wigan v Swansea

Wigan (11/10) 47.6%

Draw (5/2) 28.6%

Swansea (11/4) 26.67%

 

Smart arse warning : Obviously there's some rounding here, so not all totals will be exactly 100%.

 

So the chances of Wigan either LL, LD, or DL is (rounded) 42+27+42+29+29+27/6 = around a 32.67 % chance we'll be safe before we even play Sunderland - even if we lose to Spurs.

 

In addition, Saints' chances against Spurs are :

Tottenham (1/2) 66.67%

Draw (15/4) 21%

Southampton (34/5) 12.8%.

 

The win would see us all but safe on 42 points, so there's a 12.8% chance of that (there are a few scenarios where we're not, but if we draw all 3 games we are safe, so that's how narrow that margin is)

 

Failing that, odds for Sunderland are

 

Sunderland (5/4) 44.4%

Draw (12/5) 29.4%

Southampton (12/5) 29.4% and there's a 29.4% chance of us getting the 3 points there too.

 

I'm not going to try and break down the overall probability because of all the other results to consider, (e.g. 2 draws for Saints, Villa/Newcastle/Norwich losing) but there are plenty of ways we can be comfortable prior to playing Stoke (the Arsenal v Wigan match is midweek before the last games as well and is likely to confirm our safety if it hasn't already happened by then, Wigan are currently 9/1 to get a win there [10%]).

Edited by The9
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Doctoroncall

Doctoroncall

Posted
Posted
I've just stuck an extra £100 on my wife's life insurance policy.

 

I obviously hope she isn't mowed down by a bus tomorrow morning, as I love and adore her to bits.

 

But if she is actually smashed into a ghastly mush of guts and blood on the tarmac tomorrow, at least this will soften the blow.

 

Just missing time and place.

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Cestrian Saint

Cestrian Saint

Posted
Posted
On betfair was 100/1 so returns a grand. Don't see us getting any more points. Maybe negative, but would certainly help if it does happen

 

Me too. I'm convinced Wigan will win 3 or their last 4 like they always do. I don't see Saints getting another point this season. Saints to slip down on the last day with 39pts and I'll have a grand to soften the blow.

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Deano6

Deano6

Posted
Posted

 

...

 

FWIW, and I know bookies' odds are not the same as probability due to the markets but that's all we've got :

West Brom v Wigan

West Brom (7/5) 41.67%

Draw (5/2) = 28.6%

Wigan (11/5) = 31.25%

 

and

Wigan v Swansea

Wigan (11/10) 47.6%

Draw (5/2) 28.6%

Swansea (11/4) 26.67%

 

Smart arse warning : Obviously there's some rounding here, so not all totals will be exactly 100%.

 

So the chances of Wigan either LL, LD, or DL is (rounded) 42+27+42+29+29+27/6 = around a 32.67 % chance we'll be safe before we even play Sunderland - even if we lose to Spurs.

 

...

 

 

Right answer (more or less), but you've got the workings wrong. You need to multiply for consecutive events happening, not add and take the average.

 

LL = P(loss) * P(loss) = 42% * 27% = 11.3%

LD = P(loss) * P(draw) = 42% * 29% = 12.2%

DL = P(loss) * P(draw) = 29% * 27% = 7.8%

 

You then add the 3 to sum across the event space, to get 31.4% (more or less what you had).

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted (edited)
Right answer (more or less), but you've got the workings wrong. You need to multiply for consecutive events happening, not add and take the average.

 

LL = P(loss) * P(loss) = 42% * 27% = 11.3%

LD = P(loss) * P(draw) = 42% * 29% = 12.2%

DL = P(loss) * P(draw) = 29% * 27% = 7.8%

 

You then add the 3 to sum across the event space, to get 31.4% (more or less what you had).

 

Yeah, I couldn't be arsed and it was only indicative, well spotted. ;)

Edited by The9
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