gr00031 Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 On betfair was 100/1 so returns a grand. Don't see us getting any more points. Maybe negative, but would certainly help if it does happen
S-Clarke Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 Nice one. Thanks for sharing. You'd think we've lost the last 6 games based on some of the pessimism on here. Weird mindsets. We were always going to lose another game, big deal.
pingwing Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 Waste of a tenner, Wigan have to win so much now just to beat the drop...
kpturner Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 Fantastic thread - thanks for wasting valuable disk space!
Smirking_Saint Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 At least you have the strength of your convictions, and your not just a spineless troll I honestly think you'd have got more if you'd have burnt it though 7 points at this stage of the season is MASSIVE
Saint Scott Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 Brave post... I'd advise you to post any new threads here from now on.
UpweySaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 Money where mouth is, fair enough. I think we'l stay up but wouldn't mind a grand to console me if we went down!
Deano6 Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 On betfair was 100/1 so returns a grand. Don't see us getting any more points. Maybe negative, but would certainly help if it does happen I bet you a tenner Saints don't lose all their games. You win the bet if they do even if it doesn't end in relegation.
Manuel Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 A tenner seems a bit steep, but I might have gone for a quid.
Saint_Tony Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 It's quite significant that on most online bookmakers we are not even quoted, so you'd have to email them for a price. Even so, theres nothing wrong with having a tenner on, at least if it did happen, (highly unlikely), you get something out of it. Best to cover yourself at such big odds Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk 2
NewYorkSaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Posted 29 April, 2013 According to this brilliant website: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html ...chances of relegation for Saints are 0.1%. 1000 to 1 would have been a fairer price. But if it stopped you worrying, I'm sure £10 well spent. The same site says we still have 1 in 11 chance of finishing top half of table. More interesting and uplifting bet for me!
SaintBobby Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 (edited) I've just stuck an extra £100 on my wife's life insurance policy. I obviously hope she isn't mowed down by a bus tomorrow morning, as I love and adore her to bits. But if she is actually smashed into a ghastly mush of guts and blood on the tarmac tomorrow, at least this will soften the blow. Edited 30 April, 2013 by SaintBobby
Window Cleaner Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 Waste of a tenner, Wigan have to win so much now just to beat the drop... exactly Wigan's absolute minimum is now 2 wins and 2 draws. You can write off their game at the Emirates so 3 wins it is which isn't going to happen.
Mr Saints Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 You can't see us getting a point from Sunderland or Stoke?
KelvinsRightGlove Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 I still don't get the rationale of people who think we are going down. I keep trying to put this in different ways to show how odd it is. Let me try again. Wigan would need to amass at least 8-9 points, given their goal difference. With 4 Games left for them to play thats around 2 - 2.25 points per game, or over double the 0.94 points per game that have averaged this season so far. Or, they have won 8 games of 34, or 1 win every 4.25 games. Hardly suggests they are likely to win 3 of their last 4 games. I like Wigan, they are quite well run and Martinez seems like a decent guy, that tries to get them playing football. But, the chances of them finishing with more points than us is infinitesimal. Sorry lad, you might as well have eaten that £10.
Window Cleaner Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 I still don't get the rationale of people who think we are going down. I keep trying to put this in different ways to show how odd it is. Let me try again. Wigan would need to amass at least 8-9 points, given their goal difference. With 4 Games left for them to play thats around 2 - 2.25 points per game, or over double the 0.94 points per game that have averaged this season so far. Or, they have won 8 games of 34, or 1 win every 4.25 games. Hardly suggests they are likely to win 3 of their last 4 games. I like Wigan, they are quite well run and Martinez seems like a decent guy, that tries to get them playing football. But, the chances of them finishing with more points than us is infinitesimal. Sorry lad, you might as well have eaten that £10. But this is Saints fans all over, they swing from one extreme to the other at the slightest setback. On the OS the poll showed that over 80% expected us to win against West Brom who are a decent side. A draw was a good result for us even. So we lost 3-0 and now manic-depression is setting in again, perhaps we have a lot of bi-polar disorder amongst our supporters, who knows. We have done well of late but when that happens fans expect it to continue for ever and to be honest we just don't have the squad to win every game. The lads have done fantastically well of late but they're not robots and some are obviously at less than 100 % but our poor squad depth means that they're playing 90 minutes anyway. We will probably get another 3 or 4 points this season but even if we don't the lads have done enough and they know it, pity that a lot of supporters don't.
KelvinsRightGlove Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 But this is Saints fans all over, they swing from one extreme to the other at the slightest setback. On the OS the poll showed that over 80% expected us to win against West Brom who are a decent side. A draw was a good result for us even. So we lost 3-0 and now manic-depression is setting in again, perhaps we have a lot of bi-polar disorder amongst our supporters, who knows. We have done well of late but when that happens fans expect it to continue for ever and to be honest we just don't have the squad to win every game. The lads have done fantastically well of late but they're not robots and some are obviously at less than 100 % but our poor squad depth means that they're playing 90 minutes anyway. We will probably get another 3 or 4 points this season but even if we don't the lads have done enough and they know it, pity that a lot of supporters don't. The thing is, all of my above post, ignores the fact that for us to be relegated, 4 other teams, in addition to Wigan need to out perform us. And that is made EVEN harder by the fact that Villa & Wigan play each other on the last day.
Window Cleaner Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 The thing is, all of my above post, ignores the fact that for us to be relegated, 4 other teams, in addition to Wigan need to out perform us. And that is made EVEN harder by the fact that Villa & Wigan play each other on the last day. but when they go into nervous nelly mode nothing sinks in, they just see a black hole and nothing else; It's been that way for years. The best time was the great escape, few expected anything and each game saw a bit more euphoria creeping in.
trousers Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 You can't see us getting a point from Sunderland or Stoke? I can see us getting 7 points from our last 3 games....doesn't mean it'll happen though...
trousers Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 I still don't get the rationale of people who think we are going down. I keep trying to put this in different ways to show how odd it is. Let me try again. Wigan would need to amass at least 8-9 points, given their goal difference. With 4 Games left for them to play thats around 2 - 2.25 points per game, or over double the 0.94 points per game that have averaged this season so far. Or, they have won 8 games of 34, or 1 win every 4.25 games. Hardly suggests they are likely to win 3 of their last 4 games. I like Wigan, they are quite well run and Martinez seems like a decent guy, that tries to get them playing football. But, the chances of them finishing with more points than us is infinitesimal. Sorry lad, you might as well have eaten that £10. Would that logic have seen Wigan relegated last season...?
Miltonroader07 Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 Leave the stupid threads to the experts please
The9 Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 (edited) The worst bit about this are that the odds taken are 10 times worse than the likelihood of it actually happening. Betfair's got 189/1 available. Edited 30 April, 2013 by The9
Dan Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 If you don't like a thread people, here's a thought don't post on it. But for the original poster, I get your thinking behind it, it makes sense. Me and a mate lumped on saints to stay up when we were bottom. I'm planning on doing this bet just to cover myself just incase!
Micky Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 Is that really, really your occupation....? Please tell me that you are currently unemployed and looking for work.... A tenner for us to get relegated.... in your line of work......
The9 Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 Just to keep people updated, after last night's Villa win we've moved out to a massive 0.178% likely (from around 0.08 ). Losing all three matches now makes us 2.4% likely to go down at the moment (up from around 1.8%). If we lose on Saturday we will obviously become slightly more likely to get relegated again... but if Wigan lose too they're 83.8% doomed.
Whitey Grandad Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 I fully understand all the odds and statistics but they relate to the situation at the end of the season. My concern is that we could be going into the game at Stoke needing a point or three to be certain of security, so a more relevant question for me is 'what are the odds that we will be safe before kick-off at 16:00 on May 19th?'
The9 Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 I still don't get the rationale of people who think we are going down. I keep trying to put this in different ways to show how odd it is. Let me try again. Wigan would need to amass at least 8-9 points, given their goal difference. With 4 Games left for them to play thats around 2 - 2.25 points per game, or over double the 0.94 points per game that have averaged this season so far. Or, they have won 8 games of 34, or 1 win every 4.25 games. Hardly suggests they are likely to win 3 of their last 4 games. I like Wigan, they are quite well run and Martinez seems like a decent guy, that tries to get them playing football. But, the chances of them finishing with more points than us is infinitesimal. Sorry lad, you might as well have eaten that £10. Thing is, even if Wigan win the first 3 matches we're still basically only in a 4/5/6-way fight for the one remaining place with the teams around us (ok we won't be by the time that happens, but that's the situation at the moment).
WindsorSaint Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 Tried BBC Predictor and after half an hour I did finally come up with a scenario that gets us relegated! There were some very unlikely results in there, and we don't pick up another point. Can't see it happening.
The9 Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 (edited) I fully understand all the odds and statistics but they relate to the situation at the end of the season. My concern is that we could be going into the game at Stoke needing a point or three to be certain of security, so a more relevant question for me is 'what are the odds that we will be safe before kick-off at 16:00 on May 19th?' We're 7 points ahead with a much better GD, so they have to win 3 matches or win 2 and draw 2 just to catch us. So that's basically "what are the odds on Wigan getting at most 1 point from the next 2 matches", because if they LL DL or LD they can't catch us by the time the final match comes around. But then there's the possibility of Saints picking up points too.... FWIW, and I know bookies' odds are not the same as probability due to the markets but that's all we've got : West Brom v Wigan West Brom (7/5) 41.67% Draw (5/2) = 28.6% Wigan (11/5) = 31.25% and Wigan v Swansea Wigan (11/10) 47.6% Draw (5/2) 28.6% Swansea (11/4) 26.67% Smart arse warning : Obviously there's some rounding here, so not all totals will be exactly 100%. So the chances of Wigan either LL, LD, or DL is (rounded) 42+27+42+29+29+27/6 = around a 32.67 % chance we'll be safe before we even play Sunderland - even if we lose to Spurs. In addition, Saints' chances against Spurs are : Tottenham (1/2) 66.67% Draw (15/4) 21% Southampton (34/5) 12.8%. The win would see us all but safe on 42 points, so there's a 12.8% chance of that (there are a few scenarios where we're not, but if we draw all 3 games we are safe, so that's how narrow that margin is) Failing that, odds for Sunderland are Sunderland (5/4) 44.4% Draw (12/5) 29.4% Southampton (12/5) 29.4% and there's a 29.4% chance of us getting the 3 points there too. I'm not going to try and break down the overall probability because of all the other results to consider, (e.g. 2 draws for Saints, Villa/Newcastle/Norwich losing) but there are plenty of ways we can be comfortable prior to playing Stoke (the Arsenal v Wigan match is midweek before the last games as well and is likely to confirm our safety if it hasn't already happened by then, Wigan are currently 9/1 to get a win there [10%]). Edited 30 April, 2013 by The9
Doctoroncall Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 I've just stuck an extra £100 on my wife's life insurance policy. I obviously hope she isn't mowed down by a bus tomorrow morning, as I love and adore her to bits. But if she is actually smashed into a ghastly mush of guts and blood on the tarmac tomorrow, at least this will soften the blow. Just missing time and place.
Bucks Saint Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 Ha. I stuck ten quid on us winning the league next season. Did not say which one though.
Cestrian Saint Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 On betfair was 100/1 so returns a grand. Don't see us getting any more points. Maybe negative, but would certainly help if it does happen Me too. I'm convinced Wigan will win 3 or their last 4 like they always do. I don't see Saints getting another point this season. Saints to slip down on the last day with 39pts and I'll have a grand to soften the blow.
Deano6 Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 ... FWIW, and I know bookies' odds are not the same as probability due to the markets but that's all we've got : West Brom v Wigan West Brom (7/5) 41.67% Draw (5/2) = 28.6% Wigan (11/5) = 31.25% and Wigan v Swansea Wigan (11/10) 47.6% Draw (5/2) 28.6% Swansea (11/4) 26.67% Smart arse warning : Obviously there's some rounding here, so not all totals will be exactly 100%. So the chances of Wigan either LL, LD, or DL is (rounded) 42+27+42+29+29+27/6 = around a 32.67 % chance we'll be safe before we even play Sunderland - even if we lose to Spurs. ... Right answer (more or less), but you've got the workings wrong. You need to multiply for consecutive events happening, not add and take the average. LL = P(loss) * P(loss) = 42% * 27% = 11.3% LD = P(loss) * P(draw) = 42% * 29% = 12.2% DL = P(loss) * P(draw) = 29% * 27% = 7.8% You then add the 3 to sum across the event space, to get 31.4% (more or less what you had).
Window Cleaner Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 Saints should start a bookies operation. All these wasted tenners could be put towards our new players for next season. Honestly though people you should stop fuelling bookies Bentley funds by betting on ridiculous things like Saints going down or a Chinese woman becoming pope.
The9 Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 (edited) Right answer (more or less), but you've got the workings wrong. You need to multiply for consecutive events happening, not add and take the average. LL = P(loss) * P(loss) = 42% * 27% = 11.3% LD = P(loss) * P(draw) = 42% * 29% = 12.2% DL = P(loss) * P(draw) = 29% * 27% = 7.8% You then add the 3 to sum across the event space, to get 31.4% (more or less what you had). Yeah, I couldn't be arsed and it was only indicative, well spotted. Edited 30 April, 2013 by The9
Viking Warrior Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 I've just stuck a tenner on saints to get relegated What a numpty . You should have been bold and put £100 on that way we will all have a bloody good laugh at you losing it
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