Saint Without a Halo Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 We all know how difficult it was to pick 8 potential draws from 46 fixtures to win the pools! we have to have at least 15 results go a specific way against us to be relegated! the chances of this happening are very remote to say the least. Yes it is still possible, but it is highly highly improbable! There are currently about 1 in a thousand possible permutations of the remaining fixtures that see us down and 999 that dont.
Dark Munster Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 1950 has nothing to do with today, footballers swilled beer, smoked fags, went to the greyhounds instead of training, worked down the shipyards and were in general a lamentable bunch. Any local lad with a teaspoonful of talent might get a pro-contract after he'd done his national service. Nothing to do with today's modern players. Which was the era when Cheats FC won the league, which they are quick to brag about.
Lord Duckhunter Posted 30 April, 2013 Posted 30 April, 2013 You are right any team can win a straight 3, but we dont have just one team below us in the mix we have 5. The chances of all 5 teams at the bottom all winning at least 2 out of 3 and therefore all averaging 2 points a game are remote to say the least. At least one one of the 5 teams below us (if not more) will get no more than 2 points! Only Wigan below us need to win more than one game. If we lose the next two tough away games then in my opinion we'll need a point from stoke. Last day anything can happen and im sure people wont quite be so sure we are safe then. Newcastle will beat qpr Villa could well beat Norwich Wigan could win 3 out of their 4 Norwich could beat a west brom side that's won 2 away games in 9 and lost at reading. Look at those fixtures is it that far fetched? Is us losing our next 2 that far fetched? Had villa lost Monday they would have needed to beat Norwich and get a point at least from Chelsea to relegate us, or Wigan would have needed to beat Arsenal. Now Wigan can lose to arsenal, villa can lose to Chelsea and it will still go to the last day. One point at home to west ham and west brom is a **** poor return and has put the pressure back on us, I just hope mp isn't as complacent as some on here.
Chewy Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 Each one on its own not fantastically far fetched (though Wigan getting 8 from the next 4, including Arsenal away having got 2 from the last 4 is borderline). But all of the above happening altogether, along with us losing all 3? Yep, I'd say far fetched. And the way Newcastle are playing? I wouldn't be too sure about that result either.
SaintRobbie Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 Anyone who underestimates Wigan has their head in the sand. How many other sides looked at us and thought "we're safe Southampton wont pick up enough points" in the 1990's . Absolutely right. Good point. I am not convinced Wigan are for the drop either. Not yet anyway.
Barry Sanchez Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 Only Wigan below us need to win more than one game. If we lose the next two tough away games then in my opinion we'll need a point from stoke. Last day anything can happen and im sure people wont quite be so sure we are safe then. Newcastle will beat qpr Villa could well beat Norwich Wigan could win 3 out of their 4 Norwich could beat a west brom side that's won 2 away games in 9 and lost at reading. Look at those fixtures is it that far fetched? Is us losing our next 2 that far fetched? Had villa lost Monday they would have needed to beat Norwich and get a point at least from Chelsea to relegate us, or Wigan would have needed to beat Arsenal. Now Wigan can lose to arsenal, villa can lose to Chelsea and it will still go to the last day. One point at home to west ham and west brom is a **** poor return and has put the pressure back on us, I just hope mp isn't as complacent as some on here. I completely agree with this, I cant see us getting anything in the next two games and anything can happen on the last day, I fancy Wigan against West Brom, so for me it all comes down to the last day and anything can happen. I am not that hopeful as it seems to be the way for us this season, we just have not been able to pull away from the danger zone.
Wade Garrett Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 If West Brom play as well against Wigan as they did against us, they'll win. I was very impressed with them.
Lord Duckhunter Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 If West Brom play as well against Wigan as they did against us, they'll win. I was very impressed with them. They did play well at our place as they also did at Anfield. Unfortunately, bearing in mind they play Wigan and Norwich, they are capable of some stinkers. They lost to Reading and until they beat us, had won 1 away game in about 8.
adrian lord Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 William Hill have the Toon as second favs for the drop at 6/1. Wigan still odds on at 2/5. We aren't even on the app screen. Says it all really.
Chewy Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 They did play well at our place as they also did at Anfield. Unfortunately, bearing in mind they play Wigan and Norwich, they are capable of some stinkers. They lost to Reading and until they beat us, had won 1 away game in about 8. And until the west brom game we hadn't lost in 6, so why so sure were going to lose the next 2? Get a grip.
Saint Without a Halo Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 Each one on its own not fantastically far fetched (though Wigan getting 8 from the next 4, including Arsenal away having got 2 from the last 4 is borderline). But all of the above happening altogether, along with us losing all 3? Yep, I'd say far fetched. And the way Newcastle are playing? I wouldn't be too sure about that result either. That in a nutshell is the point! that is why bookies are offering 100 to 1 plus and they are not stupid!
PhilippineSaint Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 My Barcode mate reckons that it is between them Wigan and Villa and I cant disagree with that. So man up boy's and let the staying up party begin and the wailing and gnashing of teeth because we haven't bought half the Dortmund team when they win the European cup.
The9 Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 You are right any team can win a straight 3, but we dont have just one team below us in the mix we have 5. The chances of all 5 teams at the bottom all winning at least 2 out of 3 and therefore all averaging 2 points a game are remote to say the least. At least one one of the 5 teams below us (if not more) will get no more than 2 points! Look at any six game form table and you will see at least 3 teams with 2 or 3 points or less. so over 3 games there will be a few teams with 1 to 2 points or less. Yes we can all do the predictor and force every possible result to go against us and yes this will see us relegated by 2 points, however what is the real probability of this happening over the last 30 or so games where at least 20 of these need to be forced in one direction in order to lead to a relegation! Preaching to the choir here !
Ivan Katalinic's 'tache Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 I think we'll get the point we need from either Sunderland or Stoke anyway but I can't see Wigan getting 8 points from their last 4 games to relegate us (hopefully not famous last words!) should we lose our last 3 and all the others climb above us. It'd be bizarre to see Newcastle go down, as this would mean that 3 former Saints managers would be relegated from the Prem in one season!
kpturner Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 we just have not been able to pull away from the danger zone.That statement beggars belief !!
Saint Without a Halo Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 That statement beggars belief !! I am glad there was no internet/forum for the majority of our great escapes when we constantly went into the last 3 games needing 4 to 5 points in the 60's till 2005 I remember particulalry Dellhurst, the 4-1 win on the last day home to Villa and even the year we went down in 74 after a brilliant 3-0 away win at Everton which left us 1 point short! Going into the last 3 seven clear, 7 teams in the mix and 5 below us, good goal difference and with two places already filled is as Monty Python used to say LUXURY LAD LUXURY!
Window Cleaner Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 I am glad there was no internet/forum for the majority of our great escapes when we constantly went into the last 3 games needing 4 to 5 points in the 60's till 2005 I remember particulalry Dellhurst, the 4-1 win on the last day home to Villa and even the year we went down in 74 after a brilliant 3-0 away win at Everton which left us 1 point short! Going into the last 3 seven clear, 7 teams in the mix and 5 below us, good goal difference and with two places already filled is as Monty Python used to say LUXURY LAD LUXURY! Saintslist was red hot during THE Great Escape
bender Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 William Hill have the Toon as second favs for the drop at 6/1. Wigan still odds on at 2/5. We aren't even on the app screen. Says it all really. Yesterday I put £4 on us to go down at 80/1 at Ladbrokes. If we go down, I'll buy myself a new telly for the kitchen to soften the blow.
adrian lord Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 Yesterday I put £4 on us to go down at 80/1 at Ladbrokes. If we go down, I'll buy myself a new telly for the kitchen to soften the blow. - keep the wife happy too!
ART Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 Obviously Arsene's interest in Morgan is firmly based on him believing we're going to get relegated. Wonder what evil conniving match fixing he has in mind. He hasn't counted on us blowing his plans out of the water and staying up.
dubai_phil Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 See that Sessegnon has been banned for 3 matches at Sunderland. Their turn around co-incided with him finally finding form. Could be a deciding factor especially after their blow-up in their "Champions League Final" on Saturday so good news IMHO
Whitey Grandad Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 See that Sessegnon has been banned for 3 matches at Sunderland. Their turn around co-incided with him finally finding form. Could be a deciding factor especially after their blow-up in their "Champions League Final" on Saturday so good news IMHO Good, every little helps.
kpturner Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 (edited) the 4-1 win on the last day home to Villadon't remember that and I have been watching for 37 years. I must be going senile Must be this one http://www.11v11.com/matches/southampton-v-aston-villa-30-april-1994-21690/ But we still had two games to play after that (Spurs and West Ham away) Edited 1 May, 2013 by kpturner
SaintRobbie Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 That in a nutshell is the point! that is why bookies are offering 100 to 1 plus and they are not stupid! Thats a fair observation - can you put on here a link to the 100-1 shot Bookies though? Thanks! (Its worth a consolation prize bet!)
musesaint Posted 1 May, 2013 Author Posted 1 May, 2013 Sessegnon ban is a bonus for the Saturday after next
trousers Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 Thats a fair observation - can you put on here a link to the 100-1 shot Bookies though? Thanks! (Its worth a consolation prize bet!) http://oddschecker.mobi/iphone-landing.html?reffering_domain=www#_football-english-premier-league-relegation-all-odds-southampton
scotty Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 (edited) Sessegnon ban is a bonus for the Saturday after next Haven't Wigan lost one of their key players as well, for a red in their last game? edit; I was thinking of Figueroa, who looks to be out injured for the remainder. Edited 1 May, 2013 by scotty
BlakeySFC Posted 1 May, 2013 Posted 1 May, 2013 Haven't Wigan lost one of their key players as well, for a red in their last game? edit; I was thinking of Figueroa, who looks to be out injured for the remainder. Alcaraz is out for the rest of the season as well.
Batman Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Obviously Arsene's interest in Morgan is firmly based on him believing we're going to get relegated. Wonder what evil conniving match fixing he has in mind. He hasn't counted on us blowing his plans out of the water and staying up. Off your nut
Cabrone Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Don't understand the complacency on here, if Wigan get a win at WBA and we lose at Spurs then they are 4 points behind us with a game in hand at another holiday club. At least one of Norwich and Villa will gain points putting more heat on us. The odds are that if we stay professional we'll get through but the complacency on here is unwarranted.
trousers Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Don't understand the complacency on here, if Wigan get a win at WBA and we lose at Spurs then they are 4 points behind us with a game in hand at another holiday club. At least one of Norwich and Villa will gain points putting more heat on us. The odds are that if we stay professional we'll get through but the complacency on here is unwarranted. Worth a punt at 100/1 then?
OldNick Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Absolutely right. Good point. I am not convinced Wigan are for the drop either. Not yet anyway. I agree but from a Wigans players point of view,they would have been pretty down after the last minute Spurs equalizer, add to that to see the gap widen. If they get off to a bad start in the next game there is a chance their heads will drop. Add to that none will wish to be injured pre the cup final. I want us to finish the job ourselves but it would be nice if we get a bit of help to save the nerves.
fanimal Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 I predict a meltdown on here on Tuesday around 10pm when we are just two places above the bottom 3 and Wigan are on 38 points having just beaten Swansea at home, Norwich on 38 in between having lost at home to a now rampant Villa who will have 40 points like Newcastle (win at Wham) and Sunderland (win at Stoke, 40 as well.) Then still two games and 12 days of bum squeezing to go.....
Chewy Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 I predict a meltdown on here on Tuesday around 10pm when we are just two places above the bottom 3 and Wigan are on 38 points having just beaten Swansea at home, Norwich on 38 in between having lost at home to a now rampant Villa who will have 40 points like Newcastle (win at Wham) and Sunderland (win at Stoke, 40 as well.) Then still two games and 12 days of bum squeezing to go..... I predict not one of those points totals will be correct.
fanimal Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 I pray that you are right and my prediction is rubbish, but having sweated through many run ins best to predict the worst....the key game is WBA v Wigan on Saturday, if WBA win, then I will rest much easier, simple really?
Whitey Grandad Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Wigan v Swansea on Tuesday evening is the key for me. By then it should be much clearer what we need to achieve.
Ian the Red Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 (edited) I've been reading this thread over the last few days, and I've got so say, some of the opinions and negative posts are unbelievable!!! Saints are Safe. Lets face it, Wigan are not going to pick up 8 points in 4 games, my prediction is 6 at best. You also have to remember Newcastle are not in great form, neither there great rivals Sunderland. Both haven't got the easiest of run ins, -Newcastle; WH, QPR, Arsenal (3Pts from that) -Sunderland; Stoke, SFC, Spuds (3pts MAX) without banging on about everyone else's fixtures, surely from that anyone can see we will more than likely finish above both of them considering we have 2 more points already. I completely agree we missed an opportunity with the WBA game, a point there and this thread wouldn't have even have started! But realistically 1 point from 9 WILL be enough. I'm going to WHL this Saturday and honestly think we will get something. All my Spurs friends are nervous about Saints, they probably will be without Lennon, meaning no width. Bale tends to drift in and everything comes down the middle. I can see a 1-1 or 2-2 with Saints taking the lead early and having to fight back for the point. A little optimism wouldn't go a miss!! we've had a GOOD season back in the PREM, and I think most of you, if offered this position on SEPT 1st would have ripped the arm off the offer.... WE will be fine, We are staying up, HAVE FAITH!! Come on YOU REDS!! Edited 2 May, 2013 by Ian the Red
Saint in Paradise Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Why does everyone think we will get beaten by Spurs? Have you forgotten we beat Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City as well as almost beating Man Utd ???
The9 Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Yesterday I put £4 on us to go down at 80/1 at Ladbrokes. If we go down, I'll buy myself a new telly for the kitchen to soften the blow. EIGHTY TO ONE !?!? The actual odds for it to happen are somewhere nearer five hundred.
The9 Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Thats a fair observation - can you put on here a link to the 100-1 shot Bookies though? Thanks! (Its worth a consolation prize bet!) Last time I checked there were punters on Betfair offering 190/1, which is only 4 times stingier than the actual probability of it happening.
The9 Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Wigan v Swansea on Tuesday evening is the key for me. By then it should be much clearer what we need to achieve. By then it could be "nothing". If Wigan fail to get more than 1 point from Saturday and Tuesday they can't catch us.
trousers Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 EIGHTY TO ONE !?!? The actual odds for it to happen are somewhere nearer five hundred. I'll have £10 at 500/1 please.
The9 Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 I predict a meltdown on here on Tuesday around 10pm when we are just two places above the bottom 3 and Wigan are on 38 points having just beaten Swansea at home, Norwich on 38 in between having lost at home to a now rampant Villa who will have 40 points like Newcastle (win at Wham) and Sunderland (win at Stoke, 40 as well.) Then still two games and 12 days of bum squeezing to go..... Or a collective sigh of relief after Wigan's failure to get enough points to trouble us. Though that could happen on Saturday, of course.
The9 Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 I'll have £10 at 500/1 please. Ha, even if I was offering, I'd only be giving 10 ticks better than the longest odds on Betfair...
trousers Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 (edited) Ha, even if I was offering, I'd only be giving 10 ticks better than the longest odds on Betfair... You trying to tell me we might be a goner....? Edited 2 May, 2013 by trousers
The9 Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 You trying to tell me we might be a goner....? We might, it's just a rather unlikely outcome.
trousers Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Haven't Wigan lost one of their key players as well, for a red in their last game? edit; I was thinking of Figueroa, who looks to be out injured for the remainder. Ian Abrahams @BroadcastMoose Roberto Martinez has confirmed Wigan defender Maynor Figueroa has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a groin injury
dubai_phil Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/newcastle-united/10026476/Newcastle-United-manager-Alan-Pardew-sees-position-at-St-James-Park-put-in-peril-by-dressing-room-split.html Interesting, Th telegraph runs with a story about Dressing Room unrest French v everyone else, players wanting out and criticising Pardew. They get a letter from Newcastle's Lawyers and get banned from The Ground, and then let everyone know they have it all in writing. Sounds like Pardew is in real trouble up there
Kingsbridge Saint Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Love the posters on here that say we are 'safe' because we will pick up points......the whole point of 'safe' is that we can AFFORD not to pick up ANY more points. Then we're safe. How people can say 'we're safe' because in their opinion we will pick up more points just demonstrates their failure to grasp the concept of 'safe'. They are discussing 'likelihood' not 'safety'. There's a world of difference. Categorically, we are not safe. However, we are likely to stay up. Savvy?
The9 Posted 2 May, 2013 Posted 2 May, 2013 Love the posters on here that say we are 'safe' because we will pick up points......the whole point of 'safe' is that we can AFFORD not to pick up ANY more points. Then we're safe. How people can say 'we're safe' because in their opinion we will pick up more points just demonstrates their failure to grasp the concept of 'safe'. They are discussing 'likelihood' not 'safety'. There's a world of difference. Categorically, we are not safe. However, we are likely to stay up. Savvy? There's a chance you'll get hit by a piece of aircraft whilst walking down the road. It's unlikely, but do you feel safe that it won't happen ?
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