Are We Safe?

[Window Cleaner]

It's crazy really. As soon as someone looks like they're hot candidates for one of the relegation spots, they manage to pull out a win and everyone talks about them being safe again. West Ham looked like getting dragged into it, then Sunderland did it then Stoke.

 

I just hope we can just get over the line, an unlikely win at Spurs this weekend would be amazing but can't see it happening somehow.

 

Don't think Sunderland are out of the woods yet, DiCanio obviously boosted their game for a couple of matches but

the old class/effort couple showed again last night, thought Mignolet looked dreadful, been tapped up maybe. Stoke,Saints,Spurs not easy fixtures when you need a couple of points IF Wigan start winning, then again I don't think they will. I can see them finishing on 35 or 36 points.

[Window Cleaner]

Nervous football nellies boost bookies profits shocker. We will not go down and you will lose your money.

 

Offsetting any disagreable possibility with a bet at the bookies is a desperately bad attitude.

[Saint Without a Halo]

How quickly we all forget! The saints of old when struggling were usually going into the last 3 games needing 4 or 5 points and others to drop points in order to stay up! We are going into the last 3 (4 for wigan) with

 

1) A seven point buffer (points in hand being better than games in hand as the season closes)

2) Two relegation places already filled

3) At least 7 other teams in the mix for the last relegation place and 5 of those below us already

4) A better goal difference than most

 

This is a far from uncomfortable position to be in in our first season back after a double promotion particulalry as most pundits expected us to struggle in the Championship never mind the premiership

 

Time to take a dose of reality and relax! We have done Bloody well and will stay up and be stronger next year!

[Jesus Reigned]

Nervous football nellies boost bookies profits shocker. We will not go down and you will lose your money.

 

Offsetting any disagreable possibility with a bet at the bookies is a desperately bad attitude.

 

I can take the hit on a tenner to be fair, and if it helps me to sleep more comfortably in my bed for the next few weeks it will be money well spent/lost!

[BGF]

What worries me is that I was told once that in the 1950's we were well clear of the league and we looked like being promoted, we couldn't get any points and guess what! we didnt get promoted, it looks very much like that today i:e we were clear of the relegation zone but now we are back in it, I know we've never been clear of the relegation zone but if you look back at some of the losses and draws we made against teams that were lower than us if we had won a one we would be clear, thats what does my head in.

[Window Cleaner]

What worries me is that I was told once that in the 1950's we were well clear of the league and we looked like being promoted, we couldn't get any points and guess what! we didnt get promoted, it looks very much like that today i:e we were clear of the relegation zone but now we are back in it, I know we've never been clear of the relegation zone but if you look back at some of the losses and draws we made against teams that were lower than us if we had won a one we would be clear, thats what does my head in.

 

 

1950 has nothing to do with today, footballers swilled beer, smoked fags, went to the greyhounds instead of training, worked down the shipyards and were in general a lamentable bunch. Any local lad with a teaspoonful of talent might get a pro-contract after he'd done his national service. Nothing to do with today's modern players.

[Saint Without a Halo]

What worries me is that I was told once that in the 1950's we were well clear of the league and we looked like being promoted, we couldn't get any points and guess what! we didnt get promoted, it looks very much like that today i:e we were clear of the relegation zone but now we are back in it, I know we've never been clear of the relegation zone but if you look back at some of the losses and draws we made against teams that were lower than us if we had won a one we would be clear, thats what does my head in.

 

Errr one key difference is the teams around the top tend to pick up more points per game than those at the bottom! So a 5 to 7 points lead at the top is only worth approx half one at the bottom!

[Saint86]

Errr one key difference is the teams around the top tend to pick up more points per game than those at the bottom! So a 5 to 7 points lead at the top is only worth approx half one at the bottom!

 

I want to see your maths to back that up. You can't go making mathematical statements with no supporting calculations... especially on here!

[Batman]

we will be fine.

[Saint Without a Halo]

I want to see your maths to back that up. You can't go making mathematical statements with no supporting calculations... especially on here!

 

 

I suggest you take any table and calculate the average points per game of the top 5 by dividing the points total into the number of games and do the same with the bottom 5 you will see what I am talking about! the top 5 always average around 2 points a game and the bottom 5 around 1 point a game.

AS 2 is twice 1 ERGO a lead of 5 points at the top is half what its worth at the bottom in terms of number of games to make up a lead if the team in question scores no more points.

Try any football table you like since 3 for a win came in!

Edited 30 April, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo

[The9]

they are 7 points behind and I can see them beating Swansea, west brom and villa. We really needed villa to lose last night as they both can't win the shootout at the end of the season. Really need Norwich to do them sat, because unless they get a point from Chelsea or Wigan get a point from arsenal we can all enjoy last day. Of course we could get something from spurs or Sunderland,but I've got a real bad feeling about them

 

And by "really needed them to lose" you mean because our relegation probability has moved out massively from 0.08% to... gasp... 0.178%. So instead of being 99.92% likely to stay up, we're only 99.822% likely to. Yeah, that Villa result was critical.

 

Do you understand that if Norwich DON'T "do" Villa it then leaves Norwich still below us ? Or that Wigan even if they win will still be 4 points behind us with only 9 points available to them ? And that Villa and Wigan have to drop at least 3 points between them on the last day ?

 

Your panic is tangible, and not a little hysterical, in both senses of the word.

[The9]

I suggest you take any table and calculate the average points per game of the top 5 by dividing the points total into the number of games and do the same with the bottom 5 you will see what I am talking about! the top 5 always average around 2 points a game and the bottom 5 around 1 point a game.

AS 2 is twice 1 ERGO a lead of 5 points at the top is half what its worth at the bottom in terms of number of games to make up a lead if the team in question scores no more points.

Try any football table you like since 3 for a win came in!

 

It sort of makes sense, but it's pretty much irrelevant in a last 3 matches scenario because the quality of opposition can vary so greatly in the fixtures teams have to play. If Saints were playing Man U, Arsenal and Man City away in their last 3 games I'd be slightly more concerned than I am, but only if Wigan had QPR, Reading and some no-mark midtablers in terrible form (West Brom? hoho) for their last games.

[Dig Dig]

we will be fine.

 

Cheers Batman, I feel better now

[Batman]

Cheers Batman, I feel better now

 

no problem robin

[Lord Duckhunter]

And by "really needed them to lose" you mean because our relegation probability has moved out massively from 0.08% to... gasp... 0.178%. So instead of being 99.92% likely to stay up, we're only 99.822% likely to. Yeah, that Villa result was critical.

 

Do you understand that if Norwich DON'T "do" Villa it then leaves Norwich still below us ? Or that Wigan even if they win will still be 4 points behind us with only 9 points available to them ? And that Villa and Wigan have to drop at least 3 points between them on the last day ?

 

Your panic is tangible, and not a little hysterical, in both senses of the word.

 

You can quote all the %'s in the world, but the simple fact is if Villa win on Sat and we lose (entirely possible 2 results) we'll be below Villa. Will Villa fans be sat thinking "we're safe", will the BBC report say Villa are now safe?

 

Wigan's next 2 are Swansea and West Brom, hard but winnable from a team that beat Man utd and other top sides in their escapes the last couple of years.

 

Of course Norwich will still be below us, but is it possible for them to beat WBA at home? I'd say it was. Sat's win meant they've won 2 away games in 9 and in that was a defeat at Reading. Any team that can lose at Reading are quite capable of getting beat at Norwich. Throw into the mix Newcastle playing QPR,Sunderland having 2 winnable home games, and that's why I'm slightly uneasy about the run in .

 

A perfectly reasonable set of results could mean it going to the last day, would you still be so confident then? Will you be confident and quoting %'s when we're 1 ahead of Wigan and below everyone else.

 

So the reason I felt that we really needed Villa to lose was that I cant see Wigan being above us before the last day, so if Villa aren't either we cant go down. Yesterdays result moved that likelihood further away than the 0.112% or whatever other nonsense %'s you want to quote.

[Batman]

how is it a perfectly reasonable set of results for a team with 2 points from the last possible 12? (wigan)

[Lord Duckhunter]

how is it a perfectly reasonable set of results for a team with 2 points from the last possible 12? (wigan)

 

Their last 4 were tougher than their next 4.

 

Away at Man C, West Ham, QPR, and then home to Spurs is harder than West Brom, Swansea, Arsenal and Villa.

 

Here's 5 results in a row from end of March to April last year that led them to safety .

 

Liverpool 1 – 2 Wigan Athletic

Wigan Athletic 2 – 0 Stoke City

Chelsea 2 – 1 Wigan Athletic

Wigan Athletic 1 – 0 Manchester United

Arsenal 1 – 2 Wigan Athletic

 

Anyone who underestimates Wigan has their head in the sand.

 

How many other sides looked at us and thought "we're safe Southampton wont pick up enough points" in the 1990's .

 

Sheffield Utd have gone down twice when only needing draws in their last game, so it does happen.

[Batman]

QPR stayed up last year, so where is the similarities?

wigan are going down. The obvious distraction of the FA cup and their bad injury concerns will sort that out

 

if they fail to win at WBA, regardless of any other result, that will put one northern leg in the NPC next season

[The9]

You can quote all the %'s in the world, but the simple fact is if Villa win on Sat and we lose (entirely possible 2 results) we'll be below Villa. Will Villa fans be sat thinking "we're safe", will the BBC report say Villa are now safe?

 

Wigan's next 2 are Swansea and West Brom, hard but winnable from a team that beat Man utd and other top sides in their escapes the last couple of years.

 

Of course Norwich will still be below us, but is it possible for them to beat WBA at home? I'd say it was. Sat's win meant they've won 2 away games in 9 and in that was a defeat at Reading. Any team that can lose at Reading are quite capable of getting beat at Norwich. Throw into the mix Newcastle playing QPR,Sunderland having 2 winnable home games, and that's why I'm slightly uneasy about the run in .

 

A perfectly reasonable set of results could mean it going to the last day, would you still be so confident then? Will you be confident and quoting %'s when we're 1 ahead of Wigan and below everyone else.

 

So the reason I felt that we really needed Villa to lose was that I cant see Wigan being above us before the last day, so if Villa aren't either we cant go down. Yesterdays result moved that likelihood further away than the 0.112% or whatever other nonsense %'s you want to quote.

 

If Wigan lose, practically everyone will basically be safe, so yes, people will be reporting Villa as safe.

 

Again, you pick one possible permutation of results (the worst possible one) and act like it's 1) likely and 2) the only possible outcome.

 

If Wigan only get one point from the weekend and next midweek's matches, they can't catch us. If we win any of the next 3 matches we're definitely safe. And as well as that, there are 4 matches between teams around us this weekend, guaranteeing at least 4 sides around us will drop at least 2 points.

 

This "perfectly reasonable" set of results basically has to include Wigan winning 3 of their 4 matches, by the way. They haven't won any of their last 3 (and even winning 3 of the 5 before that has still left them adrift).

Edited 30 April, 2013 by The9

[Whitey Grandad]

If Wigan lose, practically everyone will basically be safe, so yes, people will be reporting Villa as safe.

 

Again, you pick one possible permutation of results (the worst possible one) and act like it's 1) likely and 2) the only possible outcome.

 

If Wigan only get one point from the weekend and next midweek's matches, they can't catch us. If we win any of the next 3 matches we're definitely safe. And as well as that, there are 4 matches between teams around us this weekend, guaranteeing at least 4 sides around us will drop at least 2 points.

 

This "perfectly reasonable" set of results basically has to include Wigan winning 3 of their 4 matches, by the way. They haven't won any of their last 3 (and even winning 3 of the 5 before that has still left them adrift).

 

Er... if we lose at Spurs then they might actually gain a point on us.

[The9]

Sheffield Utd have gone down twice when only needing draws in their last game, so it does happen.

 

Yes, but the only scenario where we will only need a draw in the last game almost certainly involves Villa being safe and more than 3 points ahead of us, and Wigan within 3 points but not nearer than 1 having hugely improved their goal difference and having to beat Villa. ANOTHER unlikely situation.

[The9]

Er... if we lose at Spurs then they might actually gain a point on us.

 

But there are 4 other teams below us along with Wigan. If they all draw and we lose we'll be a point worse off compared to all of them - but as the teams below us (especially Wigan) need wins to overtake us it will be better for us than any of them winning.

 

Plus that would be 8 teams gaining 1 point each, better than 4 teams getting 3 each. Admittedly this includes West Brom for convenience, but in most cases the draw is the preferred outcome no matter what we do.

Edited 30 April, 2013 by The9

[kpturner]

wasn't that the year of the Tevez todo ?

 

Definite Utd, can't remember when Wednesday were last in the top flight, 90s maybe.

No not the Tevez todo. I just remember them getting relegated after losing at home to Forest (I think) having been considered safe as houses up to the last two fixtures. I think Big Ron was the manager so it must have been very early '90's I suppose. They also got relegated after drawing 3-3 with Arsenal at Highbury in 2000 methinks.

[mulletsaint]

how is it a perfectly reasonable set of results for a team with 2 points from the last possible 12? (wigan)

 

Until two weeks ago Stoke had gained six points from a possible 39, and in the previous seven matches had managed one point. They've now won their last two. Form can change.

 

I'm not saying we'll go down but I think some people are being rather blasé about the whole situation.

[The9]

No not the Tevez todo. I just remember them getting relegated after losing at home to Forest (I think) having been considered safe as houses up to the last two fixtures. I think Big Ron was the manager so it must have been very early '90's I suppose. They also got relegated after drawing 3-3 with Arsenal at Highbury in 2000 methinks.

 

They went down when they lost at Chelsea in 1994/5ish, seem to recall Brian Stein scored the winner circa 90th minute, Bassett was the manager and it was the first time they'd been in the relegation places all season.

 

I will now Google to find if any of this is true.

[The9]

They went down when they lost 3-2 at Chelsea in 1993/4, seem to recall Mark Stein scored the winner circa 90th minute, Bassett was the manager and it was the first time they'd been in the relegation places all season.

 

I will now Google to find if any of this is true.

 

Amendments. Couldn't check the goal time but I was right about opposition, manager and striker surname, it was a "late" goal. Though they won quite a lot of late games so I'm surprised they were only in the relegation zone then, if that is true.

[Patrick Bateman]

You know what, enough conjecture - we'll win this weekend and ......... we'll be safe.

[The9]

That thing about Sheff U not being in the bottom positions I think must refer only to the final DAY, not the season, cos they're sure as hell 21st on 19th April 1994 with 38 games gone of the 42 match season.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/1993-1994/table/1994-04-19

[The9]

You know what, enough conjecture - we'll win this weekend and ......... we'll be safe.

 

Not strictly true unless other results go our way. We can in extremely unlikely circumstances be relegated on 42pts if we win 1 and lose 2, though not if we draw 3 ! Presumably that little statty quirk is due to us also taking 2 points off Sunderland and Stoke by drawing, meaning they can get fewer points overall than if we beat one and lose to the other.

 

Having said all that, 3 points and it's SO unlikely we're not safe even I'll stop splitting hairs about it.

[The9]

Until two weeks ago Stoke had gained six points from a possible 39, and in the previous seven matches had managed one point. They've now won their last two. Form can change.

 

I'm not saying we'll go down but I think some people are being rather blasé about the whole situation.

 

It's difficult not to be blase when the worst case scenario of 3 defeats for Saints is still only 2.4% likely to end in our relegation.

[kpturner]

They went down when they lost at Chelsea in 1994/5ish, seem to recall Brian Stein scored the winner circa 90th minute, Bassett was the manager and it was the first time they'd been in the relegation places all season.

 

I will now Google to find if any of this is true.

 

That was Sheffield United not Sheffield Wednesday

[The9]

That was Sheffield United not Sheffield Wednesday

 

It was, and there was some discussion on the thread about United, hence the Tevez comment from someone. Then there was some Wednesday stuff. Anyway it was far enough back in the thread that I can't find it and the Tevez comment is sufficient reason alone to mention that piece of Prem folklore...

Edited 30 April, 2013 by The9

[The9]

What worries me is that I was told once that in the 1950's we were well clear of the league and we looked like being promoted, we couldn't get any points and guess what! we didnt get promoted, it looks very much like that today i:e we were clear of the relegation zone but now we are back in it, I know we've never been clear of the relegation zone but if you look back at some of the losses and draws we made against teams that were lower than us if we had won a one we would be clear, thats what does my head in.

 

1950 has nothing to do with today, footballers swilled beer, smoked fags, went to the greyhounds instead of training, worked down the shipyards and were in general a lamentable bunch. Any local lad with a teaspoonful of talent might get a pro-contract after he'd done his national service. Nothing to do with today's modern players.

 

What interests me about that is that the example is totally vague, but the response doesn't focus on that, instead suggesting there's some implication that the players of the 1950s, rather than the maths around the results, which is basically a constant, is the important element here.

[kpturner]

It was, and there was some discussion on the thread about United, hence the Tevez comment from someone. Then there was some Wednesday stuff. Anyway...

 

....anyway, they both went down (at some point)

[The9]

....anyway, they both went down (at some point)

 

Yeah, though unlike (2 of?) United's relegations, I have no recollection of Wednesday sinking at all (other than the stuff about the now-former Prem Chairman bankrupting them with the likes of Sibon and De Bilde which I read about it in David Conn's book t'other day).

[Supersubpuckett]

even if we lose every game the set of results elsewhere to get us relegated would have to be pretty extraordinary - ie all the teams below us winning virtually every game, then theres the wigan villa factor to dent that slightly

[kpturner]

Yeah, though unlike (2 of?) United's relegations, I have no recollection of Wednesday sinking at all (other than the stuff about the now-former Prem Chairman bankrupting them with the likes of Sibon and De Bilde which I read about it in David Conn's book t'other day).

 

It was Bob De Bilde that scored at Highbury in the 3-3 draw that relegated them the last time

 

In 89-90 they were relegated on GD under Atkinson having been been considered safe right up until the last game or two. An unusual set of results accompanying their own home defeat (sure it was Forest) sent them down.

[Stud mark of doom]

What worries me is that I was told once that in the 1950's we were well clear of the league and we looked like being promoted, we couldn't get any points and guess what! we didnt get promoted, it looks very much like that today i:e we were clear of the relegation zone but now we are back in it, I know we've never been clear of the relegation zone but if you look back at some of the losses and draws we made against teams that were lower than us if we had won a one we would be clear, thats what does my head in.

 

From memory (of the Saints history book) I think it was around 1948 or 49. The bad run started when our main striker got crocked - away at Spurs if I recall correctly.

[Dr Who?]

I just relegated us on the predictor. I was unsure if it was possible with everyone seemingly play each other at the bottom. I am now a little worried. I did have us not getting another point, but had Wigan losing just 1 of the last 3.

 

If Wigan lose at WBA on Saturday, that will be it!

[Dalek2003]

I just relegated us on the predictor. I was unsure if it was possible with everyone seemingly play each other at the bottom. I am now a little worried. I did have us not getting another point, but had Wigan losing just 1 of the last 3.

 

If Wigan lose at WBA on Saturday, that will be it!

 

I think that is how it is likely to pan out. Relegation is a real possibility I am afraid and I have been warning about this even though I have been swimming against the tide.

[Dr. Kucho]

I dont think we will go down, 2 more points should be enough. I can see Wigan winning a few games, they always seem to mental at the end of the season. I think Newcastle and Villa have a good chance of going down, even after Villa's win yesterday.

[Saint Without a Halo]

It sort of makes sense, but it's pretty much irrelevant in a last 3 matches scenario because the quality of opposition can vary so greatly in the fixtures teams have to play. If Saints were playing Man U, Arsenal and Man City away in their last 3 games I'd be slightly more concerned than I am, but only if Wigan had QPR, Reading and some no-mark midtablers in terrible form (West Brom? hoho) for their last games.

 

There are 7 teams in it the average for the bottom teams is 1 point per match it is almost statistically impossible that all 7 will suddenly produce 2 to 3 points a game form, even more so because they each play each other a number of times and many also have matches against top teams involved in a real scramble for lucrative European Championship places.

 

At least 1 if not more of the teams below us will get 3 points or less in their last three games my money is on at least 3 of them doing so.

Edited 30 April, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo

[Saint Without a Halo]

Their last 4 were tougher than their next 4.

 

Away at Man C, West Ham, QPR, and then home to Spurs is harder than West Brom, Swansea, Arsenal and Villa.

 

Here's 5 results in a row from end of March to April last year that led them to safety .

 

Liverpool 1 – 2 Wigan Athletic

Wigan Athletic 2 – 0 Stoke City

Chelsea 2 – 1 Wigan Athletic

Wigan Athletic 1 – 0 Manchester United

Arsenal 1 – 2 Wigan Athletic

 

Anyone who underestimates Wigan has their head in the sand.

 

How many other sides looked at us and thought "we're safe Southampton wont pick up enough points" in the 1990's .

 

Sheffield Utd have gone down twice when only needing draws in their last game, so it does happen.

 

The point is any one two or even three of the chasing sides can have a good run but the liklehood of them all doing it is very remote! Hence the bookies odds (they are far from stupid)

[Saint Without a Halo]

I think that is how it is likely to pan out. Relegation is a real possibility I am afraid and I have been warning about this even though I have been swimming against the tide.

 

You think wrong! It is a very remote possibility and highly improbable!

Edited 30 April, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo

[The9]

There are 7 teams in it the average for the bottom teams is 1 point per match it is almost statistically impossible that all 7 will suddenly produce 2 to 3 points a game form, even more so because they each play each other a number of times and many also have matches against top teams involved in a real scramble for lucrative European Championship places.

 

At least 1 if not more of the teams below us will get 3 points or less in their last three games my money is on at least 3 of them doing so.

 

It's not in any way "almost statistically impossible" for any individual Prem team to win 3 straight games, and form can be misleading - but it very much depends on their fixtures. I keep pointing out that Villa are cack, and they are, but they've now beaten 4 sides around them, and that's 12 points.

 

I agree it can't happen to everyone because they're playing each other (especially this weekend) and that's our safety net. Some of them don't even need 3 points, but fortunately we only need one of them to falter. Either way, we agree that we're safe in the vast majority of situations, even if it's for different reasons.

[LaptopSaint]

Just did the BBC predictor, and managed to relegate Newcastle on goal difference from Villa. Bit of a surprise really.

[musesaint]

Saturday is key

 

Not expecting us to get much from Spurs (although a draw would be nice)

 

It's the other results to watch on Saturday - obviously especially the Wigan game

 

My thinking is that we are not 100% safe yet - but one more point should do it

[hypochondriac]

Just did the BBC predictor, and managed to relegate Newcastle on goal difference from Villa. Bit of a surprise really.

 

You had Newcastle to lose to QPR?

[InvictaSaint]

Interestingly, very few of us are looking at Newcastle as real candidates to join QPR and Reading in relegation. The Toon have West Ham and QPR away and Arsenal at home. I can quite easily see them losing all three. QPR are free of worry as their fate is sealed, W Ham are strong at home and on a decent run - don't Newcastle also have a problem getting points away to London teams, historically? - and Arsenal are going all out for the CL place. Given Newcastle's recent form - 2 defeats, 9 goals conceded at home, none scored - the wheels could be about to come off big time.

[Saint Without a Halo]

It's not in any way "almost statistically impossible" for any individual Prem team to win 3 straight games, and form can be misleading - but it very much depends on their fixtures. I keep pointing out that Villa are cack, and they are, but they've now beaten 4 sides around them, and that's 12 points.

 

I agree it can't happen to everyone because they're playing each other (especially this weekend) and that's our safety net. Some of them don't even need 3 points, but fortunately we only need one of them to falter. Either way, we agree that we're safe in the vast majority of situations, even if it's for different reasons.

 

You are right any team can win a straight 3, but we dont have just one team below us in the mix we have 5. The chances of all 5 teams at the bottom all winning at least 2 out of 3 and therefore all averaging 2 points a game are remote to say the least. At least one one of the 5 teams below us (if not more) will get no more than 2 points!

 

Look at any six game form table and you will see at least 3 teams with 2 or 3 points or less. so over 3 games there will be a few teams with 1 to 2 points or less. Yes we can all do the predictor and force every possible result to go against us and yes this will see us relegated by 2 points, however what is the real probability of this happening over the last 30 or so games where at least 20 of these need to be forced in one direction in order to lead to a relegation!