Saint Without a Halo Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Nobody is saying that at all. However, anyone who doesn't think Wigan can beat WBA & Swansea, doesn't think Villa can beat Sunderland and Norwich, doesn't think Sunderland can beat us at home is deluded. If god forbid Norwich also beat West Brom & Newcastle beat QPR, we'll be going into the last game of the season needing something or preying that Villa beat Wigan, will people still be talking about 1% and other such nonsense in those circumstances? If all that happens then £1 on an accumulator will pay you handsomely! do you think bookies are stupid? you have more chance of getting knocked over crossing the road! does that stop you going outside your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 and when you are proved to be wrong by not understanding probabilities and the way statistics work? This is Southampton we are talking about, the normal laws of probability do not apply to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintsmooth Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 I reckon we are safe! Lets be generous and give Wigan wins at home v's Villa and Swansea, a draw away at WBrom and loss away at Arsenal. Let's say also that Villa secure wins at home v's Sunderland and Chelsea, lose away v's Wigan and draw away v's Norwich. On top of that Saints have a shocker and get no further points. We would then miss relegation by goal difference on the same points as Wigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 I reckon we are safe! Lets be generous and give Wigan wins at home v's Villa and Swansea, a draw away at WBrom and loss away at Arsenal. Let's say also that Villa secure wins at home v's Sunderland and Chelsea, lose away v's Wigan and draw away v's Norwich. On top of that Saints have a shocker and get no further points. We would then miss relegation by goal difference on the same points as Wigan. If that did happen then the goal difference could be uncomfortably close. At the moment we are +13 better than Wigan. Lose all 3 games 3-0 (like Saturday) and it won't be just my bum that's squeaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Yes, but the clubs below us don't need to win all their games. Villa beat S'land tonight and Norwich away, lose 2 Norwich beat West Brom at home, lose 2 Newcastle beat QPR away, lose 2 Wigan beat WBA, Swansea and Villa, lose 1 We lose all three games It's unlikely I know but it certainly could happen. It's even more unlikely when you consider that due to the number of matches between "involved" teams, those combinations above mean some matches have to finish a specific way, or the impact on other combinations means we are again safer than we were before kick off. As someone just pointed out, it's the other teams being guaranteed to drop points that's the safety net here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Charlie Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 One extra point would help a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dig Dig Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 This is Southampton we are talking about, the normal laws of probability do not apply to us. Yes they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Somewhat related, the probability for tonight, and the impact on it on other clubs : Villa v Sunderland Current relegation probabilities : (Saints 0.1%, Sunderland 0.6%, Norwich 1.6%) Newcastle 4.7%, Villa 34.7%, Wigan 58.3% If Villa win : Sunderland 1.7%, Newcastle 8%, Villa 15.1%, Wigan 72.5% Draw : Sunderland 0.1%, Newcastle 4%, Villa 38.2%, Wigan 56.1% If Sunderland win : Sunderland >0.05%, Newcastle 2.2%, Wigan 47.1%, Villa 49.9% So a Sunderland win makes Wigan slightly favoured over Villa to stay up. It would also put Sunderland ahead of us by a point with a min 3 goals better goal difference. However, the draw puts Sunderland a point BEHIND us with a slightly better GD and even then they're only 0.1% likely to go down and we're even less likely than that. Whatever happens, we remain 99.9% likely to stay up. A Villa win is much worse for Newcastle and Wigan than anyone else (as you'd expect looking at the table). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 If that did happen then the goal difference could be uncomfortably close. At the moment we are +13 better than Wigan. Lose all 3 games 3-0 (like Saturday) and it won't be just my bum that's squeaking. We'd know at the start of the day that us losing and Wigan winning still wouldn't see us down though. Plus Villa beating Chelsea as required is at least a 3/1 shot on its own. Again, it could happen, but in a simulation, it's been proven that only 786/10000 times will a combination of results to relegate Saints actually happen. There's a 3% chance we could lose all 3 matches and still come 14th. It is 3 times less likely than that we'll lose all 3 matches and finish 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Nobody is saying that at all. However, anyone who doesn't think Wigan can beat WBA & Swansea, doesn't think Villa can beat Sunderland and Norwich, doesn't think Sunderland can beat us at home is deluded. If god forbid Norwich also beat West Brom & Newcastle beat QPR, we'll be going into the last game of the season needing something or preying that Villa beat Wigan, will people still be talking about 1% and other such nonsense in those circumstances? People won't be talking about 1%, because the probability will have significantly increased from 1% following that unlikely path already. But it requires at least 8 results to go the way you have required first. As we've already noted, those particular results are even less likely because of the form of the teams involved, around 1250/1 in total. There are 52 million permutations of possible results remaining, some of them will result in Saints going down. But not many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max_saints Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 we're safe but only just crawling over the finish line. past 3 games, i've been thinking win this and we can relax and enjoy the rest of our games. yet the players have started to press less and their minds some place else already. might have to wait till the sunderland game to confirm safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Yes they do A posteori pehaps Football supporters are a superstitious bunch and quite right too, otherwise it's a waste of time for me to wear my lucky keyring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 (edited) Talking of dead certs, I see Ladbrokes have "some smart Alec on SWF posts; "Why are we interested in the Villa v Sunderland game when we're safe and heading for 10th place?" in the Villa vs Sunderland match thread this evening" as 2/9 odds-on Edited 29 April, 2013 by trousers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dig Dig Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 A posteori pehaps Football supporters are a superstitious bunch and quite right too, otherwise it's a waste of time for me to wear my lucky keyring. Some examples please! ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Up until Saturdays debacle, we were unbeaten in 6 and I think this was our best run in the PL since the days of WGS. So let's put this in some sort of perspective here. No one has taken their foot off the gas, we probably performed slightly above ourselves in the previous few weeks if anything and we're fortunate we got the results we did. However, i think everyone appreciates that we're a good side and aren't suddenly crap. If you want to know what crap is, re-watch Reading v QPR. That will tell you all you need to know. We've put ourselves into a great position from our 6 game run and it will take an incredible, absolutely unbelievable and un-seen turn of fate for us to go down. It's almost impossible, and probably will be in a week or so. We're closer to the top 10 than we are to relegation, yet people seem to think relegation is more likely. Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 I thought we were basically sound in the first half on Saturday, should have been at least level at half time, then without Cork we obviously lost a little familiarity and when it became 10-a-side the likelihood of getting picked off by a WBA side who play on the counter even at home significantly increased. Can't see us getting anything at Spurs, but I'm not going to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musesaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Author Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Sunderland ...get a grip ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Sunderland ...get a grip ! Aren't we safe ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgie Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 I dunno why some think we are safe, we are right back in it now. Especially considering our next two games. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 I dunno why some think we are safe, we are right back in it now. Especially considering our next two games. :-/ Personally, I think this result sends Wigan to the brink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micky Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 I dunno why some think we are safe, we are right back in it now. Especially considering our next two games. :-/ Surely given our current form we will get six points from our next two games, which then just leaves a home banker against Stoke. Easy nine points. Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludgershallsaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Aren't we safe ? No, but it is likely by a considerable margin that we are. I'd be more worried if I was a Newcastle, Sunderland, Wigan or Norwich supporter. So 20% of the PL has more to worry about than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgie Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Personally, I think this result sends Wigan to the brink. I would have said the same if they didn't have a game in hand. Oh the joys of supporting saints, never doing things the easy way. Saying that I would of taken this position back at the start of november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micky Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Ummm that could be helpful.. Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Interesting times. #wearesafe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulletsaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Don't worry lads, I've worked out what the problem is. It's the Mulletsaint curse of the fantasy league team. Our form has dipped since I put JRod in my team. My proof came tonight as newly signed Sessegnon is on the end of a tonking and then gets himself sent off. I'll make sure I get a few Wigan players in before the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Appy Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 We are the same amount of points away from the relegation zone as we were before this match no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aqbadger Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Personally, I think this result sends Wigan to the brink. This. It'd take a ridiculous run of results for us to go down. If I was a Newcastle fan though i'd be a bit concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingsbridge Saint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 So, as they have done it before, lets give Wigan 7 points from their last 4. Thats 41. Spurs away for us next. Safe my arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Talking of dead certs, I see Ladbrokes have "some smart Alec on SWF posts; "Why are we interested in the Villa v Sunderland game when we're safe and heading for 10th place?" in the Villa vs Sunderland match thread this evening" as 2/9 odds-on Read it a few times but couldn't make any sense of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monosaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Did the BBC Predictor yet again and still had us to lose the last 3 games and we still stay up. There are a lot of teams playing each other at the bottom so the results would really have to go against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 So, as they have done it before, lets give Wigan 7 points from their last 4. Thats 41. Spurs away for us next. Safe my arse. We also play Sunderland away and Stoke at home. There are points in both of those games. Not sure why we've suddenly become a team who can finish top 10 after going 6 games unbeaten, to a team who cannot get another point this season. Yet all the teams below us suddenly become world beaters and show top 6 form, which they haven't shown all season. Because that's what will need to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Judge_B Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 So, as they have done it before, lets give Wigan 7 points from their last 4. Thats 41. Spurs away for us next. Safe my arse. If we're playing this game then as we've done it before, I'm going to assume we go the next three games unbeaten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St.Jeweller Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Wigan now playing catch up and have a small matter of an F.A cup Final to play as-well which shouldn't cause many distractions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Tony Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Well we must be safe, I'll explain why. After our heavy 3-0 defeat we were reliably informed on here that it was not a bad day at the office, but the start of a downward spiral. Sunderland are on 2 points less and currently taking absolute battering from fellow strugglers Aston Villa. They have had a couple of good results recently but form shouldn't come into it. If we apply the same logic, this is not a bad day at the office or a one off, they are clearly on a downward spiral towards relegation and it will be nearly impossible for them to pick up any more points. Add in the fact the mighty Wigan are highly likely to win all of their remaining games, this will relegate Sunderland, with us finishing 17th. Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 So, as they have done it before, lets give Wigan 7 points from their last 4. Thats 41. Spurs away for us next. Safe my arse. 39? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 No Sessegnon against us then? Could be helpful. That said, we will be without Foxy and Gaston...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 39? Maths possibly isn't his strong point. So yes, safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulletsaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 We also play Sunderland away and Stoke at home. There are points in both of those games. Not sure why we've suddenly become a team who can finish top 10 after going 6 games unbeaten, to a team who cannot get another point this season. Yet all the teams below us suddenly become world beaters and show top 6 form, which they haven't shown all season. Because that's what will need to happen. I think we'll be safe but unfortunately I think at this time of the season it's as much about what's going on in the head as how good the team is. Lose next weekend, Villa win or draw, and Wigan win their next two (inc. game in hand), none of which is beyond the realms of possibility, and things will get very squeaky bum. We'll be looking over our shoulders and make no mistake this could have a negative effect on our last two matches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InvictaSaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 "No side in Premier League History has been relegated when 5 points clear (of the drop zone) with 3 games to go." Ed Chamberlin - Sky Sports and Saints fan, about 1 minute ago. We are 7 points clear. HTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 "No side in Premier League History has been relegated when 5 points clear (of the drop zone) with 3 games to go." Ed Chamberlin - Sky Sports and Saints fan, about 1 minute ago. We are 7 points clear. HTH We weren't even included in their ''relegation battle'' table at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 "No side in Premier League History has been relegated when 5 points clear (of the drop zone) with 3 games to go." Ed Chamberlin - Sky Sports and Saints fan, about 1 minute ago. We are 7 points clear. HTH Wigan have got 4 games left to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InvictaSaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 We weren't even included in their ''relegation battle'' table at the end. Absolutely! Some people worry far too much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amesbury Saint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Just done the bbc predictor We stay up because villa play Wigan. Loser goes down. But it was rather tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Well we must be safe, I'll explain why. After our heavy 3-0 defeat we were reliably informed on here that it was not a bad day at the office, but the start of a downward spiral. Sunderland are on 2 points less and currently taking absolute battering from fellow strugglers Aston Villa. They have had a couple of good results recently but form shouldn't come into it. If we apply the same logic, this is not a bad day at the office or a one off, they are clearly on a downward spiral towards relegation and it will be nearly impossible for them to pick up any more points. Add in the fact the mighty Wigan are highly likely to win all of their remaining games, this will relegate Sunderland, with us finishing 17th. Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk 2 Hallelujah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Didcot Saint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Weren't Sheffield Utd 7 or 8 Clear with 4 or 5 games left and still went down last day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 I think we'll be safe but unfortunately I think at this time of the season it's as much about what's going on in the head as how good the team is. Lose next weekend, Villa win or draw, and Wigan win their next two (inc. game in hand), none of which is beyond the realms of possibility, and things will get very squeaky bum. We'll be looking over our shoulders and make no mistake this could have a negative effect on our last two matches. Bang on. That is football for you. all this predictor stuff...if it was so easy the Pools companies would never have made any money and look at he likes at he professional punters who try and predict results. The point is Wigan will be scrapping for their lives and if they get a good result this could propel them onwards. That defeat by WBA is very likely to cost us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InvictaSaint Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Wigan have got 4 games left to play. Give you a silver lining, and you find the cloud. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graffito Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 Stating the obvious but worth remembering that we can do absolutely nothing about results between other sides. We are 7 points clear of the relegation zone, we are high in the form table, there are just three games to play, one of which is against a relegation rival and another a home fixture against Stoke who are not world beaters and who probably will have little to play for. All positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 29 April, 2013 Share Posted 29 April, 2013 We weren't even included in their ''relegation battle'' table at the end. We were in the Sunday times one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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