Are We Safe?

[Dalek2003]

And on this occasion you are wrong. We are safe. 39 points will be safe. We don't need 43 points. Are you going to wager your house as well that you're right?

 

Again, it would be better if you inserted the word 'probably'. This would at least make you look less arrogant and prove that you can at least think in a two dimensional fashion.

[Dalek2003]

We have some right bed wetting drama queens following our club.

 

Get a grip ladies.

 

and we have some very long necked ostriches !

[brett24]

Wigan have taken 2 point in there last 4 games. They will not beat West Brom and yesterday's performance was just one bad performance, all of a sudden we are not a bad team that is going to lose the rest of our games! We will get a result against Spurs they are not playing that great at the moment and is the sort of team our tactics will work against. If not we will get a win over Sunderland or Stoke. I was nervous yesterday until Wigan conceded an equaliser think that goal could see them relegated?

[The9]

when did WBA last "do the dirty on us"??

 

I believe rolling over Portsmouth and escaping from relegation is the incident being referred to, though as we came bottom due to losing to Man U, it only actually relegated Palace.

[Dalek2003]

Wigan have taken 2 point in there last 4 games. They will not beat West Brom and yesterday's performance was just one bad performance, all of a sudden we are not a bad team that is going to lose the rest of our games! We will get a result against Spurs they are not playing that great at the moment and is the sort of team our tactics will work against. If not we will get a win over Sunderland or Stoke. I was nervous yesterday until Wigan conceded an equaliser think that goal could see them relegated?[/QUOT

Def agree over the late Spud equaliser. However, it shows how wide of the mark the Complacent clappers were, that you were sweating on a late Spud equaliser.

Also I am amazed how supporters of Saints, with our long history as last game escape artists, can so readily write off Villa and Wigan.

[Chewy]

But it's hard not to sound arrogant when I'm right. I can think in many dimensions - it's mathematically possible for us to go down (as I've said plenty of times), but I can't for the life of me see how we will. You're the one who said that for the umpteenth time 39 points will see us relegated. It won't. How many dimensions of 39 points have you considered?

[kpturner]

I believe rolling over Portsmouth and escaping from relegation is the incident being referred to, though as we came bottom due to losing to Man U, it only actually relegated Palace.

 

I can see why deliberately losing might be deemed as "doing the dirty" - but deliberately winning ??

[Dalek2003]

But it's hard not to sound arrogant when I'm right. I can think in many dimensions - it's mathematically possible for us to go down (as I've said plenty of times), but I can't for the life of me see how we will. You're the one who said that for the umpteenth time 39 points will see us relegated. It won't. How many dimensions of 39 points have you considered?

 

I am a Dalek, all dimensions are possible

[Chewy]

I am a Dalek, all dimensions are possible

 

Two ways of taking that - either your throw away comment shows you can't defend your position, or I just smile at the mild comedy. I've always liked comedy myself, and am smiling. Blakeys house will have to do!

[Dalek2003]

Two ways of taking that - either your throw away comment shows you can't defend your position, or I just smile at the mild comedy. I've always liked comedy myself, and am smiling. Blakeys house will have to do!

 

If you think that the BBC predictor is the answer to everything then I suggest you read the 'Hicthhikers Guide to the Galaxy'

[Matthew Le God]

41 points would be enough IMO. I have said that before. 39 points would be cutting it very fine and IMO would see us relegated.

 

I don't see what is so outlandish about that.

 

For Saints to need 41 points to stay up it would require (given our goal difference)...

 

- Wigan to get 9 points from Arsenal away, Swansea home, West Brom away plus importantly Villa home.

 

AND

 

- Villa to get 7 points from Sunderland home, Norwich away, Chelsea home plus importantly Wigan away.

 

AND

 

- Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich, Stoke, Fulham to overtake 41 points in next 4 games

 

.................

 

Can you not see why it is extremely unlikely as it ALL has to happen, not just some of it? What do you gain from such trolly nonsense? We all know you are a troll and hopefully you know you are a troll or else you are truly insane!

[Dalek2003]

For Saints to need 41 points to stay up it would require (given our goal difference)...

 

- Wigan to get 9 points from Arsenal away, Swansea home, West Brom away plus importantly Villa home.

 

AND

 

- Villa to get 7 points from Sunderland home, Norwich away, Chelsea home plus importantly Wigan away.

 

AND

 

- Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich, Stoke, Fulham to overtake 41 points in next 4 games

 

.................

 

Can you not see why all that is extremely unlikely as it ALL has to happen, not just some of it? What do you gain from such trolly nonsense? We all know you are a troll and hopefully you know you are a troll or else you are truly insane!

 

I am not a troll so I must be insane. However, if I am proved right, what will you say then ?

[The9]

For Saints to need 41 points to stay up it would require (given our goal difference)...

 

- Wigan to get 9 points from Arsenal away, Swansea home, West Brom away plus importantly Villa home.

 

AND

 

- Villa to get 7 points from Sunderland home, Norwich away, Chelsea home plus importantly Wigan away.

 

AND

 

- Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich, Stoke, Fulham to overtake 41 points in next 4 games

 

.................

 

Can you not see why it is extremely unlikely as it ALL has to happen, not just some of it? What do you gain from such trolly nonsense? We all know you are a troll and hopefully you know you are a troll or else you are truly insane!

 

3 games, other than Sunderland.

 

Other than that, quite, but people still want to flap.

[Whitey Grandad]

For Saints to need 41 points to stay up it would require (given our goal difference)...

 

- Wigan to get 9 points from Arsenal away, Swansea home, West Brom away plus importantly Villa home.

 

AND

 

- Villa to get 7 points from Sunderland home, Norwich away, Chelsea home plus importantly Wigan away.

 

AND

 

- Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich, Stoke, Fulham to overtake 41 points in next 4 games

 

.................

 

Can you not see why it is extremely unlikely as it ALL has to happen, not just some of it? What do you gain from such trolly nonsense? We all know you are a troll and hopefully you know you are a troll or else you are truly insane!

 

But we don't have 41 points???

[Chewy]

I am not a troll so I must be insane. However, if I am proved right, what will you say then ?

 

Careful Dalek, that works both ways. MLg, you need to add another point to Wigan and villa totals to account for goal difference.

[Matthew Le God]

I am not a troll so I must be insane. However, if I am proved right, what will you say then ?

 

Remember your "17th in the Championship prediction"? Top 2 ALL season and promoted was reality!!!

Edited 28 April, 2013 by Matthew Le God

[Matthew Le God]

But we don't have 41 points???

 

You have taken that out of the context it was written, I was replying to a point Dalek2003 made about needing 41 points. For Saints to need as many as 41 points a huge number of surprising results need to happen. So unlikely it isn't worth thinking about.

[The9]

Just for a bit more clarity.

 

Matches involving two teams either below or just above Saints where at least 3 points must be dropped :

 

Villa v Sunderland

Fulham v Reading*

Norwich v Villa

West Ham v Newcastle

Sunderland v Stoke

Wigan v Swansea

QPR* v Newcastle

Swansea v Fulham

West Ham v Reading*

Wigan v Villa

 

plus Sunderland v Saints and Saints v Stoke.

 

That's a LOT of points getting dropped around us considering we're already 7 points clear of the relegation zone.

[Professor]

W D L Pts

Saints 0 0 3 39

Norwich 1 0 2 41

Sunderland 1 0 3 40

Newcastle 1 0 2 40

Aston Villa 2 0 2 40

Wigan 3 1 1 42

 

If Saints lose all three remaining games they can go down as per above. Wigan winning 3 out of 4 is unlikely but not impossible. If Saints draw one game so as to get to 40 points makes a big difference due to the GD advantage over Villa and Newcastle. There is no reason to think we won't get more than 40 points based on recent form but if complacency played any part in Saturday's defeat, I suspect MP will make sure the players get words of advice to help them in these last 3 games. Even if we lose at Tottenham almost any return from the 6 points available in the last two games should be enough but the home defeat by WBA has put talk of a top half finish into perspective.

[badgerx16]

I think it's time somebody summoned Dr Who to sort out this thread.

[The9]

W D L Pts

Saints 0 0 3 39

Norwich 1 0 2 41

Sunderland 1 0 3 40

Newcastle 1 0 2 40

Aston Villa 2 0 2 40

Wigan 3 1 1 42

 

If Saints lose all three remaining games they can go down as per above.

 

Under a 10% chance of finishing 10th or above now, and it's about 100 times less likely that we'll get relegated. 0.08% as it happens.

 

We all know there are scenarios that will send us down, the point is they are extremely unlikely to occur.

[John Boy Saint]

Blimey Charlie! last time I looked on here just before 6pm there were just 2 pages, now it looks like Prozac sales on the internet will be getting a major boost in the Hampshire area.

 

Skimming through it, made me think of the scene in Airplane when someone shouts "we are all going to die!!" and panic breaks out.

[kpturner]

Blimey Charlie! last time I looked on here just before 6pm there were just 2 pages, now it looks like Prozac sales on the internet will be getting a major boost in the Hampshire area.

 

Skimming through it, made me think of the scene in Airplane when someone shouts "we are all going to die!!" and panic breaks out.

 

Apart from the fact that the majority on this thread are not panicking at all, it is quite a good analogy.

[Tamesaint]

Apart from the fact that the majority on this thread are not panicking at all, it is quite a good analogy.

 

Exactly.

 

 

My mother used to tell me that "empty vessels make the most noice". Between them, Dalek and Barry Sanchez have made so many posts since the final whixtle yesterday, you would think that they were being paid on a per post basis.

[SaintBobby]

We're 150/1 to go down, what will we be if Villa win on Monday to close the gap to 2 points between them and us?

 

The bookies are laughing.

 

They have wet Saints fans placing money at 100/1 or 150/1 on an event (Saints relegation) that is actually about 2,000/1

 

This is why bookmakers make money on sport,

 

And why drama queens on football forums do not.

[The9]

The bookies are laughing.

 

They have wet Saints fans placing money at 100/1 or 150/1 on an event (Saints relegation) that is actually about 2,000/1

 

This is why bookmakers make money on sport,

 

And why drama queens on football forums do not.

 

If it's 0.08% it's 1250/1.

[SaintBobby]

I am not a troll so I must be insane. However, if I am proved right, what will you say then ?

 

It's like the Mayan calendar apocalypse loonies.

 

Armageddon will occur on May 12th 2009.

 

Oh, sorry, I got that a bit wrong. I mean June 9th, 2010.

 

Nope, that was a tad wrong too. It's May 18th 2013.

 

If you keep saying the world will end tomorrow, one day you'll be right.

 

But people are entirely right to treat you as a blithering idiot before, during and even afterwards.

[SaintBobby]

If it's 0.08% it's 1250/1.

 

Sensible bookies will disagree on whether it's 0.08% or 0.03% or 0.1%.

 

But as long as they have total fools willing to bet money at odds which are wrong by a factor of 10 or more, they are laughing.

 

Most bookies closed the book on Saints a week or so ago. Some of them have now realised there is a market of cretins willing to put money on a spectacularly unlikely event at (relatively) short odds.

 

William Hill, Victor Chandler and other smart people are very happy to take money from the wallets of innumerate, irrational and very stupid people. And good luck to them.

[Whitey Grandad]

You have taken that out of the context it was written, I was replying to a point Dalek2003 made about needing 41 points. For Saints to need as many as 41 points a huge number of surprising results need to happen. So unlikely it isn't worth thinking about.

 

Ok, thanks for the clarification.

 

How about needing 40?

[SaintBobby]

Ok, thanks for the clarification.

 

How about needing 40?

 

It's something like this:

 

Chance that 39 points is enough 94% Chance of Saints getting at least 39 points 100% Chance of relegation in this scenario =0%

Chance that 40 points is needed 5.5% Chance of Saints getting at least 40 points 97% Chance of relegation in this scenario = 0.165%

Chance that 41 points is needed 0.5% Chance of Saints getting at least 41 points 80% Chance of relegation in this scenario = 0.1%

Chance that 42 points is needed (now zero %, I think?)

 

I think the odds are actually a bit lower than this, but that's a very rough indication.

Edited 28 April, 2013 by SaintBobby

[Pilchards]

So after reading this thread we want Sunderland to beat Villa on Monday night, & if they don't?

 

Then it becomes a ?% chance we could go down according to someone called Dalek who thinks we will 100% go down or something?

Edited 29 April, 2013 by Pilchards

[SaintBobby]

So after reading this thread we want Sunderland to beat Villa on Monday night, & if they don't?

 

Then it becomes a ?% chance we could go down to someone called Dalek thinks we will 100% go down or something?

 

If the over-riding, all-encompassing objective is to increase our chances of staying-up from 99.9% to 99.999% and we don't much care where we finally finish in the division as long as it's above 18th, then yes, we want Sunderland to beat Villa.

[Dark Munster]

Well, I don't know about you lot, but I'm absolutely disgusted to find out that WBA deliberately beat Cheats FC all those years ago to just send us down.

 

[iansums]

Wigan have taken 2 point in there last 4 games. They will not beat West Brom and yesterday's performance was just one bad performance, all of a sudden we are not a bad team that is going to lose the rest of our games! We will get a result against Spurs they are not playing that great at the moment and is the sort of team our tactics will work against. If not we will get a win over Sunderland or Stoke. I was nervous yesterday until Wigan conceded an equaliser think that goal could see them relegated?

 

FFS If you know what's going to happen, what's the point in playing the games.

 

Why do people insist on stating opinion as fact, you don't know what is going to happen. Yes, it is unlikely that we will go down but it could happen.

 

How likely was it that Donny would be L1 Champions when Brentford were awarded a penalty with 1 minute to go? Strange things happen in football.

[saintbob40]

I am a Dalek, all dimensions are possible

 

...but not the stairs!

[kpturner]

Well, I don't know about you lot, but I'm absolutely disgusted to find out that WBA deliberately beat Cheats FC all those years ago to just send us down.

Even worse than that, Man Utd deliberately beat us as well - and the crooked b@star ds at the FA let both Utd and WBA off scott free! Edited 29 April, 2013 by kpturner

[Cabrone]

Quite a bit of arrogance breaking out into obnoxiousness going on here.

 

You can quote me all the stats you want but the stats do not take into account human emotions and teams fighting for their lives.

 

The arrogant dismissal of Wigan is pretty stupid, they aren't a bad team and they know how to get out of this situation.

 

They will be turning up at a couple of holiday clubs in the next 2 weeks brimming with intent.

 

WBA(a) is the pivotal game for me because if they win I can see them picking up 3 points against Swansea.

 

I just hope WBA play against Wigan like they played against us as I'm Pretty sure that Wigan won't produce the kind of inept\complacent\lazy performance that we did on Saturday.

 

Another big point is that they have 5 games in 2 weeks so you'd think that physical performance would drop towards the last 2 games.

 

Villa will also be burning with determination and if they win tonight will have the wind in their sails and a very good chance of catching us going into that last game.

 

Sunderland would overtake us if they beat us, they will be up for it esp if Villa beat them.

 

Norwich have Villa and West Brom at home next, knowing that they need a couple more points I can see them fighting for at least a couple of draws which puts them above us.

 

Newcastle are in the stickiest situation outside of Villa\Wigan but their saving grace may be the game at a dejected QPR with nothing to play for. They also have some decent talent that should still be able to get them out of it IMO.

 

I'm not stressed about the situation and I think the odds are that we would probably survive on 39 points but it could well be a very squeaky bum scenario if we do.

 

Of course the best way to instantly dispel all of this speculation is for Saints to go into their next 3 games fighting like Terriers.

 

If they do then I'm pretty confident that we'd get at least 1 point and quite possibly 3 and all this talk will be instantly made null and void.

 

3 points at Spurs please.

[kpturner]

Quite a bit of arrogance breaking out into obnoxiousness going on here.

 

You can quote me all the stats you want but the stats do not take into account human emotions and teams fighting for their lives.

 

The arrogant dismissal of Wigan is pretty stupid, they aren't a bad team and they know how to get out of this situation.

 

They will be turning up at a couple of holiday clubs in the next 2 weeks brimming with intent.

 

WBA(a) is the pivotal game for me because if they win I can see them picking up 3 points against Swansea.

 

I just hope WBA play against Wigan like they played against us as I'm Pretty sure that Wigan won't produce the kind of inept\complacent\lazy performance that we did on Saturday.

 

Another big point is that they have 5 games in 2 weeks so you'd think that physical performance would drop towards the last 2 games.

 

Villa will also be burning with determination and if they win tonight will have the wind in their sails and a very good chance of catching us going into that last game.

 

Sunderland would overtake us if they beat us, they will be up for it esp if Villa beat them.

 

Norwich have Villa and West Brom at home next, knowing that they need a couple more points I can see them fighting for at least a couple of draws which puts them above us.

 

Newcastle are in the stickiest situation outside of Villa\Wigan but their saving grace may be the game at a dejected QPR with nothing to play for. They also have some decent talent that should still be able to get them out of it IMO.

 

I'm not stressed about the situation and I think the odds are that we would probably survive on 39 points but it could well be a very squeaky bum scenario if we do.

 

Of course the best way to instantly dispel all of this speculation is for Saints to go into their next 3 games fighting like Terriers.

 

If they do then I'm pretty confident that we'd get at least 1 point and quite possibly 3 and all this talk will be instantly made null and void.

 

3 points at Spurs please.

I think you'd better get that key sorted out on your keyboard

[hutch]

We were only 28% likely to go down even if we lost our last 5, and that was known 2 weeks ago.

Most important post in the thread, IMO.

 

We haven't gone from 28% to 0.07% because we picked up one solitary point from two games. It's because ALL the teams below us didn't win ALL of their games, and that ain't gonna change.

[iansums]

Most important post in the thread, IMO.

 

We haven't gone from 28% to 0.07% because we picked up one solitary point from two games. It's because ALL the teams below us didn't win ALL of their games, and that ain't gonna change.

 

Yes, but the clubs below us don't need to win all their games.

 

Villa beat S'land tonight and Norwich away, lose 2

Norwich beat West Brom at home, lose 2

Newcastle beat QPR away, lose 2

Wigan beat WBA, Swansea and Villa, lose 1

We lose all three games

 

It's unlikely I know but it certainly could happen.

[Professor]

FFS If you know what's going to happen, what's the point in playing the games.

 

Why do people insist on stating opinion as fact, you don't know what is going to happen. Yes, it is unlikely that we will go down but it could happen.

 

How likely was it that Donny would be L1 Champions when Brentford were awarded a penalty with 1 minute to go? Strange things happen in football.

 

Good summary. The possible and the likely are two very different concepts. If you worry too much things that are possible even though they are not likely, you would be in fear of your life every time you went out to cross the road. And then you would worry because most accidents happen at home! Until Saints relegation is not mathematically possible it cannot be totally discounted but it is so unlikely as not be a concern. What is a disappointment after the WBA game is that the idea we had truly arrived by achieving a top half finish after such a poor start now looks to have been mistaken. If you add that to the QPR defeat it does seem that some more spending will be needed if the team is to move up to top half level next year.

[Whitey Grandad]

It's something like this:

 

Chance that 39 points is enough 94% Chance of Saints getting at least 39 points 100% Chance of relegation in this scenario =0%

Chance that 40 points is needed 5.5% Chance of Saints getting at least 40 points 97% Chance of relegation in this scenario = 0.165%

Chance that 41 points is needed 0.5% Chance of Saints getting at least 41 points 80% Chance of relegation in this scenario = 0.1%

Chance that 42 points is needed (now zero %, I think?)

 

I think the odds are actually a bit lower than this, but that's a very rough indication.

 

Thanks for that. The 39 points seems a bit out, I make that 94% chance of being safe (if we don't get any more points).

[trousers]

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/newcastle-apply-for-voluntary-relegation-2013042966984

 

NEWCASTLE have volunteered to be relegated from the Premier League, following their 6-0 defeat at home to Liverpool.

As the table stands they would have an excellent chance of avoiding demotion, but the club said it would be for the best if they were to drop down to the second tier to avoid further embarrassment.

They have asked if they can go down straight away, playing their last three fixtures against Championship opponents rather than Premier League teams.

Newcastle manager Alan Pardew said: “That 6-0 defeat hit us hard. Every last player in our team was crying like a baby in the dressing room and nobody from Liverpool came in to say that they were sorry, even though they must have been able to hear us through the wall.

“If it’s all the same to everyone, we’d prefer to play teams like Doncaster Rovers.”

This is not the first time this season a team has volunteered for relegation – Queens Park Rangers asked to be relegated in September after seven games of the 2012-13 season but were refused permission.

Following the draw with Reading that confirmed their demotion, a smiling Harry Redknapp said: “We had to do it the hard way but we got there in the end.”

[Suomi Saint]

I had a go at the predictor and have us surviving (just) on 39 points, with Villa on 38. Wigan to finish above us. I'm not confident at all that 39 is enough - in fact I don't think it will be. Saints need to scrape a couple of points from somewhere - problem is, the players and MP seem to have taken their foot of the gas. I have this nagging feeling that ours will be the most dramatic relegation in PL history. I hope I'm wrong.

[trousers]

I have this nagging feeling that ours will be the most dramatic relegation in PL history.

 

Best odds for relegation are here: https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Football---Long-Term-Domestic-Long-Term-Betting-Premier-League/p67927

 

200/1

 

Soften the blow with £2,000 from a £10 outlay...

[kpturner]

problem is, the players and MP seem to have taken their foot of the gas.

Where is the evidence to support that assertion? Just one bad result presumably, because there was nothing to suggest that in the previous 6 fixtures.

[Kingsbridge Saint]

There we go £10 on us to go down at 150/1 - there's value, right there. Also had a £10 saver on Newcastle at 9/1. Hope the saver comes in.

[brett24]

Sounds like 90% has us relegated already, lets hope the players and management don't think the same.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Sounds like 90% has us relegated already, lets hope the players and management don't think the same.

 

Nobody is saying that at all.

 

However, anyone who doesn't think Wigan can beat WBA & Swansea, doesn't think Villa can beat Sunderland and Norwich, doesn't think Sunderland can beat us at home is deluded. If god forbid Norwich also beat West Brom & Newcastle beat QPR, we'll be going into the last game of the season needing something or preying that Villa beat Wigan, will people still be talking about 1% and other such nonsense in those circumstances?

[Saint Without a Halo]

I am not a troll so I must be insane. However, if I am proved right, what will you say then ?

 

and when you are proved to be wrong by not understanding probabilities and the way statistics work?