Are We Safe?

[Dalek2003]

Well said that man.

 

I can't understand the thinking of the people that think teams that have been struggling all season are suddenly going to win all their games.

 

One team, maybe, but for us to go down 5 teams would need to have an upturn in form and overturn us.

 

 

 

It isn't going to happen.

 

Yes, yesterday we were awful. But as all the pampers posse always say after a win, it's just one game. All teams play crap and get battered now and then.

 

Ok then. Look at the past league positions at the end of the season, Have any teams gone down on 39 points or more ? I think you'll find they have.

[The9]

That's it, I've just put a £5 on my results to soften the blow IF a freak set of results.

 

£5,865.50 will be the winnings.

 

I'm hoping my £5 goes up in smoke tomorrow.

 

You have a cheap house if that's going to cover it. Ah, no wait, that was Blakey.

[scotty]

Those teams are now scrapping for their lives, they will up their game and perform better than mid season.

For the umpteenth time, if we stay on 39 points we will go down.

 

Look at Wigan's fixtures. I reckon them to draw or lose at West Brom, draw v Swansea, lose at Citeh and Arsenal, then beat Villa. Do you really see them taking much more than that from their remaining games?

[Chewy]

Ooh, ok. He's sane then, just stupid ?

 

That's better, thanks. Any ideas how nice his house is?

[S-Clarke]

Look at Wigan's fixtures. I reckon them to draw or lose at West Brom, draw v Swansea, lose at Citeh and Arsenal, then beat Villa. Do you really see them taking much more than that from their remaining games?

 

The City game is the FA Cup Final tbh. Will be a pretty big distraction I'd say.

[Chewy]

Ok then. Look at the past league positions at the end of the season, Have any teams gone down on 39 points or more ? I think you'll find they have.

 

For the love of god ... This is this season. There are years when 39 wouldn't have been enough. This isnt one of them. Care to bet your house on it? With yours and blakeys I'm looking to start my own property empire!

[SaintBobby]

Ok then. Look at the past league positions at the end of the season, Have any teams gone down on 39 points or more ? I think you'll find they have.

 

Has any team gone down when 7 points clear of 1 team to play and 5 clear of another, with those teams having just 4 games to play?

 

No.

[scotty]

The City game is the FA Cup Final tbh. Will be a pretty big distraction I'd say.

 

 

...and a massive downer when they lose it. Cant see citeh not putting that one to bed.

[SaintBobby]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league

 

Spurs beat Saints 4/7

 

Villa beat Sunderland 13/10

Norwich lose to Villa 11/5

 

WBA lose to Wigan 12/5

Wigan beat Swansea 23/17

 

Sunderland beat Southampton 5/4

Norwich beat WBA 13/10

 

QPR lose to Newcastle 8/5

 

Someone work that out, I'm trying to watch Newport v Grimsby...

 

(Don't forget that Stoke, Fulham, West Ham and Swansea would all need to not lose all their games as well, and that list already includes one Swansea defeat).

 

The odds of all of those results happening is 1,245/1

 

And even if they all did, Saints would still stand a pretty damned good chance of staying up.

[The9]

The odds of all of those results happening is 1,245/1

 

And even if they all did, Saints would still stand a pretty damned good chance of staying up.

 

Yup, but some people still want to be drama queens about it.

[Lord Duckhunter]

The odds of all of those results happening is 1,245/1

 

And even if they all did, Saints would still stand a pretty damned good chance of staying up.

 

We're 150/1 to go down, what will we be if Villa win on Monday to close the gap to 2 points between them and us?

[Mr X]

I still think we are very much in the mix for relegation, ok we only need maybe one more win but after yesterdays disaster its going to take more than we think. if we only get a couple of draws from the last fixtures that would give us 41 would that be enough? ... probably

[Mr X]

tottenham = loss

sunderland = they will be battling for their lives = Draw

Stoke = draw

[The9]

We're 150/1 to go down, what will we be if Villa win on Monday to close the gap to 2 points between them and us?

 

Probably about 75/1, just because some people might want to take a punt on the longer odds, ignoring the reality that it's a STILL a 1:100 chance and Villa's result doesn't change our odds even 1%. In fact us losing all 3 matches doesn't change out relegation probability much more than 1%.

 

It won't close the gap from us to the relegation places, because Wigan will still be the same number of points behind us.

[The9]

I still think we are very much in the mix for relegation, ok we only need maybe one more win but after yesterdays disaster its going to take more than we think. if we only get a couple of draws from the last fixtures that would give us 41 would that be enough? ... probably

 

Oh Jesus, another one.

 

Our probability of getting relegated on the 39 points we currently have is around 1%. Our probability of getting relegated on 40 is 0.1%, 41 points under 0.05%. 42 points via 3 draws less again, and if we win one of the three remaining games we now cannot be relegated at all.

 

Villa are around 35% likely to go down, Wigan 58%. That leaves everyone else with a COMBINED likelihood of 7% between them. 5% of that is Newcastle, 1.4% of it is Norwich.

[Dark Munster]

Spurs 1-0 Saints

 

Villa 1-0 Sunderland

Norwich 0-1 Villa

 

WBA 0-1 Wigan

Wigan 1-0 Swansea

 

Sunderland 1-0 Southampton

Norwich 1-0 WBA

 

QPR 0-1 Newcastle

 

Would mean last day

 

Norwich 41

Newcastle 40

Sunderland 40

Villa 40

Saints 39

Wigan 38

 

Forget about the 1-0, but the results aren't that far fetched.

 

If Wigan beat Villa last day and we will need a point home to Stoke. Ok, we'd have taken that in Oct, but not 3 games ago.

 

You forgot Arsenal 0-1 Wigan

[Cabrone]

Are we safe? Probably but it may be very, very close.

 

Just had a go on the predictor:

We lose at Spurs and Sunderland

Wigan beat WBA (a) and Swansea(h) (two teams that have nothing much to play for) and lose to Arsenal(a)

Villa beat Sunderland(h), draw at Norwich and lose against Chelsea(h)

Stoke lose at Sunderland, lose against Spurs(h)

 

That leaves a final day scenario of Wigan and Villa both on 38 points, Saints on 39 and Stoke on 40.

 

If we lost to Stoke our goal difference would probably save us. Stoke would probably have to give us a serious beating for us to go down.

 

Despite all the 'we'll be fine' comments the game against WBA was a real screw up and could keep us right in it to the death.

 

Come on Sunderland tomorrow.

[Mr X]

Oh Jesus, another one.

 

Our probability of getting relegated on the 39 points we currently have is around 1%. Our probability of getting relegated on 40 is 0.1%, 41 points under 0.05%. 42 points via 3 draws less again, and if we win one of the three remaining games we now cannot be relegated at all.

 

Villa are around 35% likely to go down, Wigan 58%. That leaves everyone else with a COMBINED likelihood of 7% between them. 5% of that is Newcastle, 1.4% of it is Norwich.

 

 

so your saying even if we don't get another point and stay on 39 we only have a 1% chance of going down how did you come to that figure?

[ART]

Crystal Palace were relegated from the Premiership with 42 points in 1993. Ten years later West Ham went down on 2003 with 38 points. In 2013. 10 years on XXXXX went down on ?? points

[KelvinsRightGlove]

Crystal Palace were relegated from the Premiership with 42 points in 1993. Ten years later West Ham went down on 2003 with 38 points. In 2013. 10 years on XXXXX went down on ?? points

 

In 1993 there were 22 teams, playing 42 games.

 

Not really comparable.

 

Nice try.

[badgerx16]

Crystal Palace were relegated from the Premiership with 42 points in 1993. Ten years later West Ham went down on 2003 with 38 points. In 2013. 10 years on XXXXX went down on ?? points

 

There were 4 more games in the Prem when palace went down. However, you could have pointed out that Brum went down 2 years ago on 39, ( having taken only 1 point from their last 7 matches ).

[kpturner]

Crystal Palace were relegated from the Premiership with 42 points in 1993. Ten years later West Ham went down on 2003 with 38 points. In 2013. 10 years on XXXXX went down on ?? points

 

You really are a mine of incorrect "facts" . Next you'll be telling us that if Pompey had beaten West Brom we'd have stayed up

[KelvinsRightGlove]

Ok then. Look at the past league positions at the end of the season, Have any teams gone down on 39 points or more ? I think you'll find they have.

 

Congrats on entirely ignoring my post.

 

Where did I mention points tallies?

 

As has been said, previous seasons points tallies mean nothing. Liverpool and united have finished 2nd in recent years on points totals that would have won them the league it is irrelevant.

 

How bout actually responding to my point.

 

Just in case, this was, that given there is now only one place left which would see us relegated, and 5 teams between us and said spot. The likelihood of all these teams getting ahead of us in very very slim. I'm not saying impossible, but about as close as one can get to it. This is increased further by the fact that Villa & Wigan face each other on the last day, meaning they cannot both get 3 points that day.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Are we safe? Probably but it may be very, very close.

 

Just had a go on the predictor:

We lose at Spurs and Sunderland

Wigan beat WBA (a) and Swansea(h) (two teams that have nothing much to play for) and lose to Arsenal(a)

Villa beat Sunderland(h), draw at Norwich and lose against Chelsea(h)

Stoke lose at Sunderland, lose against Spurs(h)

 

That leaves a final day scenario of Wigan and Villa both on 38 points, Saints on 39 and Stoke on 40.

 

If we lost to Stoke our goal difference would probably save us. Stoke would probably have to give us a serious beating for us to go down.

 

Despite all the 'we'll be fine' comments the game against WBA was a real screw up and could keep us right in it to the death.

 

Come on Sunderland tomorrow.

 

This is what I've been saying, it's nowhere near as clear as 1% or other such nonsense. If Villa beat Sunderland at home then I cant see how the the9 can have us at 1% and them at 35% bearing in mind there will only be a 2 point difference.

 

Perhaps the9 can give us the %'s if Villa win at home on Mon?

[brett24]

We will be safe after Saturday I think, Wigan are unlikely to beat West Brom especially if they play like they did against us. I can see us beating Spurs, sort of game we would win in MP's reign and the sort of games Spurs will lose!

[Saint Without a Halo]

so your saying even if we don't get another point and stay on 39 we only have a 1% chance of going down how did you come to that figure?

 

Here!

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

[Mr X]

Here!

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

cheers so we should be basically celebrating the fact we've stayed up now? bar an incredibly unlucky unlikely chance we don't

[Winnersaint]

Presumably if we do get related we'll all be out there supporting the Saints as normal???

[Olallana]

In 1993 there were 22 teams, playing 42 games.

 

Not really comparable.

 

Nice try.

 

Haha, I think ART just got lawyered!!

[Dalek2003]

I still think we are very much in the mix for relegation, ok we only need maybe one more win but after yesterdays disaster its going to take more than we think. if we only get a couple of draws from the last fixtures that would give us 41 would that be enough? ... probably

 

41 points would be enough IMO. I have said that before. 39 points would be cutting it very fine and IMO would see us relegated.

I don't see what is so outlandish about that.

[Dalek2003]

Are we safe? Probably but it may be very, very close.

 

Just had a go on the predictor:

We lose at Spurs and Sunderland

Wigan beat WBA (a) and Swansea(h) (two teams that have nothing much to play for) and lose to Arsenal(a)

Villa beat Sunderland(h), draw at Norwich and lose against Chelsea(h)

Stoke lose at Sunderland, lose against Spurs(h)

 

That leaves a final day scenario of Wigan and Villa both on 38 points, Saints on 39 and Stoke on 40.

 

If we lost to Stoke our goal difference would probably save us. Stoke would probably have to give us a serious beating for us to go down.

 

Despite all the 'we'll be fine' comments the game against WBA was a real screw up and could keep us right in it to the death.

 

Come on Sunderland tomorrow.

 

Now, there we have a much more reasoned post. The debacle against WBA could be very costly. Shame really because if we go down it will be hard to take when we were so close to safety.

[The9]

so your saying even if we don't get another point and stay on 39 we only have a 1% chance of going down how did you come to that figure?

 

This website http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html runs a simulation based on previous results and difficulty of fixtures and compiles the results from that simulation, giving probability figures for each.

 

It ran the simulation of remaining fixtures 52 million times and we end up on 39 points 3.35 million times. If we finish on 39 points we are likely to finish 16th (not even 17th) 48% of the time.

 

It also runs a simulation using 50/50 results, we're even safer using those, because obviously we'd get at least one win.

[Dalek2003]

Congrats on entirely ignoring my post.

 

Where did I mention points tallies?

 

As has been said, previous seasons points tallies mean nothing. Liverpool and united have finished 2nd in recent years on points totals that would have won them the league it is irrelevant.

 

How bout actually responding to my point.

 

Just in case, this was, that given there is now only one place left which would see us relegated, and 5 teams between us and said spot. The likelihood of all these teams getting ahead of us in very very slim. I'm not saying impossible, but about as close as one can get to it. This is increased further by the fact that Villa & Wigan face each other on the last day, meaning they cannot both get 3 points that day.

 

I did not ignore your post, far from it. But historically team have gone down on 39 points or even more. This is another way of looking at it and proves Saints could go down on 39 points. In fact I reckon if we remain on 39 points we will go down and if we survive it will be by a whisker, enough for even the most complacent Saints fans to break inot a cold sweat during the last game of the season, surely ?

[The9]

This is what I've been saying, it's nowhere near as clear as 1% or other such nonsense. If Villa beat Sunderland at home then I cant see how the the9 can have us at 1% and them at 35% bearing in mind there will only be a 2 point difference.

 

Perhaps the9 can give us the %'s if Villa win at home on Mon?

 

I can give you these - if Villa win (this covers the first 97% of outcomes, plus Norwich are still below us too) :

 

Sunderland 1.7

Newcastle 8.0

Aston Villa 15.1

Wigan 72.5

[BallBoy]

Are we safe? Probably but it may be very, very close.

 

Just had a go on the predictor:

We lose at Spurs and Sunderland

Wigan beat WBA (a) and Swansea(h) (two teams that have nothing much to play for) and lose to Arsenal(a)

Villa beat Sunderland(h), draw at Norwich and lose against Chelsea(h)

Stoke lose at Sunderland, lose against Spurs(h)

 

That leaves a final day scenario of Wigan and Villa both on 38 points, Saints on 39 and Stoke on 40.

 

If we lost to Stoke our goal difference would probably save us. Stoke would probably have to give us a serious beating for us to go down.

 

Despite all the 'we'll be fine' comments the game against WBA was a real screw up and could keep us right in it to the death.

 

Come on Sunderland tomorrow.

 

I totally agree with this one. Very well summed up. None of the results suggested here are unlikely. They are all reasonable predictions.

 

We have seriously shot ourselves in the foot with yesterdays result and suspensions. The team need to get their confidence and nerve back. Away games at Spurs and Sunderland are not good places to do that. We could get blown away in both leaving a hard game against Stoke to save ourselves.

 

I hope it does not come to that and think it probably won't but we are NOT safe. Forget the stats. Look at the form. We need to up our game again.

[The9]

cheers so we should be basically celebrating the fact we've stayed up now? bar an incredibly unlucky unlikely chance we don't

 

We were only 28% likely to go down even if we lost our last 5, and that was known 2 weeks ago.

[badgerx16]

 

We have seriously shot ourselves in the foot with......... suspensions.

 

We can manage without Ramirez, especially away from SMS, and we would better off with 10 men on the pitch than select Fox as the eleventh.

[fanimal]

OMG Cabrone has made my stomach turn with his very realistic scenario - it would be just like WBA to roll over again v Wigan and do the dirty on us once more.

Stoke at home will be a horrible game make no mistake, what a way to end the season again, I really thought after Chelsea we had put all that behind us.

[The9]

Yet there are STILL people who think the 1:100 scenario is going to play out.

 

Even if we go into the last match only 1 point ahead of both Villa and Wigan with goal differences similar to how they are now, we are already safe barring an absolute thrashing (like, 8 or 9 goals at home to Stoke) because they play each other. The games between the bottom sides give us the cushion, because someone has to drop points in all of those games, preventing one of those sides catching us.

 

As we've already seen, the combinations to get ALL of the teams below us above us exist, but they are rare.

[Dalek2003]

I totally agree with this one. Very well summed up. None of the results suggested here are unlikely. They are all reasonable predictions.

 

We have seriously shot ourselves in the foot with yesterdays result and suspensions. The team need to get their confidence and nerve back. Away games at Spurs and Sunderland are not good places to do that. We could get blown away in both leaving a hard game against Stoke to save ourselves.

 

I hope it does not come to that and think it probably won't but we are NOT safe. Forget the stats. Look at the form. We need to up our game again.

 

Another good post. Having spent the last couple of weeks hanging in the wind it is nice to suddenly find a wave of people coming over to my way of thinking.

[The9]

I totally agree with this one. Very well summed up. None of the results suggested here are unlikely. They are all reasonable predictions.

 

We have seriously shot ourselves in the foot with yesterdays result and suspensions. The team need to get their confidence and nerve back. Away games at Spurs and Sunderland are not good places to do that. We could get blown away in both leaving a hard game against Stoke to save ourselves.

 

I hope it does not come to that and think it probably won't but we are NOT safe. Forget the stats. Look at the form. We need to up our game again.

 

Again, if we lose all 3 matches, we are 48% likely to finish 2 places clear of relegation. The stats INCLUDE the form.

[Dalek2003]

OMG Cabrone has made my stomach turn with his very realistic scenario - it would be just like WBA to roll over again v Wigan and do the dirty on us once more.

Stoke at home will be a horrible game make no mistake, what a way to end the season again, I really thought after Chelsea we had put all that behind us.

 

I was warning such a couple of weeks ago. I could not believe the complaceny. Basically people have closed their eyes to reality and because they find what I am saying uncomfortable resort to insults whilst staying in denial. The same thing happened in 2004 when we failed to appoint Hoddle. I predicted relegation and our collapse. I was right.

[Whitey Grandad]

I agree that we are almost certainly safe, but I would imagine that some scenarios would have us going into the last game needing at least a point, and I would be feeling a little uneasy with that.

[Dalek2003]

I agree that we are almost certainly safe, but I would imagine that some scenarios would have us going into the last game needing at least a point, and I would be feeling a little uneasy with that.

 

Yes, and it would be galling to think that even a point against WBA would have considerably eased the tension. What the **** was going on yesterday smacks of complacency I can only hope we play like terriers against Spuds and Slumberland.

[BallBoy]

I do agree that the final game between Wigan and Villa could be our saving grace. I hope it does not come to that. 10th place seems a long way off. Lets just get safe and go from there.

 

On the optimistic side any result against Spurs or Sunderland would probably do it but we would have to be a lot better than we have been since the Chelsea game.

[Chewy]

I was warning such a couple of weeks ago. I could not believe the complaceny. Basically people have closed their eyes to reality and because they find what I am saying uncomfortable resort to insults whilst staying in denial. The same thing happened in 2004 when we failed to appoint Hoddle. I predicted relegation and our collapse. I was right.

 

And on this occasion you are wrong. We are safe. 39 points will be safe. We don't need 43 points. Are you going to wager your house as well that you're right?

[Dalek2003]

I do agree that the final game between Wigan and Villa could be our saving grace. I hope it does not come to that. 10th place seems a long way off. Lets just get safe and go from there.

 

On the optimistic side any result against Spurs or Sunderland would probably do it but we would have to be a lot better than we have been since the Chelsea game.

 

Agree with you on that one. One more point would make a massive difference and we could do with a Slumberland win tomorrow.

[View From The Top]

We have some right bed wetting drama queens following our club.

 

Get a grip ladies.

[kpturner]

it would be just like WBA to roll over again v Wigan and do the dirty on us once more.

when did WBA last "do the dirty on us"??

[Matthew Le God]

Why are you not going to provide a screenshot of your BBC predictor league table with Saints relegated Dalek2003? I know you are a troll, but at least provide me with an excuse or actually provide the screenshot!

Edited 28 April, 2013 by Matthew Le God