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Are We Safe?


musesaint

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If we stay on 39 points we will be relegated. I have been consistent in my view for many weeks now. There will be twists and turns in the last two games ad we are far from safe.

 

Does that mean you are willing to bet a decent sum of money with me that the 18th placed team will have either:

A) less than 39 points or

B) 39 points but a worse GD than us

?

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If we stay on 39 points it means we are likely to be relegated.

 

For a start it means Sunderland will leapfrog us as they will have beaten us. Norwich and Newcastle also have very winnable games this weekend which means they could easily leapfrog us as we'll.

 

And Wigan look like they will beat Villa on the final day - who will be above us.

 

So really we are counting on Wigan getting nothing more than a draw from Arsenal - and Norwich and Newcastle to get the same out of the last 2 games.

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If we stay on 39 points it means we are likely to be relegated.

 

For a start it means Sunderland will leapfrog us as they will have beaten us. Norwich and Newcastle also have very winnable games this weekend which means they could easily leapfrog us as we'll.

 

And Wigan look like they will beat Villa on the final day - who will be above us.

 

So really we are counting on Wigan getting nothing more than a draw from Arsenal - and Norwich and Newcastle to get the same out of the last 2 games.

"Likely" to be relegated? Really?

 

I would say its no more than "possible".

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If we stay on 39 points it means we are likely to be relegated.

That means you expect Wigan to beat Arsenal. If they don't then the net GD switch from us losing our games, plus Wigan beating Villa, ( having drawn at the Emirates ), has to be at least 12, that's three 4-0s.

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Simply the only way we can get relegated is if Wigan win both their games and we lose both of ours. 4 points for them isn't enough as our goal difference is very unlikely to be bettered by them. Wigan winning both and us losing both? No.

 

My biggest worry is that we'll finish 17th, which after the season we've had would be a disappointment, irrespective of whether we'd have taken that at the start of the season. I can't see it happening, I think we'll pick up three points minimum from our last two games. Remember too a point tomorrow sees us mathmatically safe, as we can't be overtaken by both Wigan and Villa, who play on the last day.

 

Any doubts? Put a large amount of money on Wigan winning against Arsenal on Tuesday. Happy if they lose, as it guarantees Saints safety (pending us not securing our own status tomorrow), consolation prize of money if they win.

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Doesn't everyone else see through the Dalek persona like I do? He is the worst of the 'happy clappers' - he is so desperate for Saints to do well that he believes if he can be superstitiously negative and downbeat then everything will turn out ok in the end. It bursts through in his posts (most notably his pre-match predictions).

 

It is a part of his routine - predict the worse as superstition that Saints do well if he predicts they won't. He's done it for a good while now and deep down inside there is nothing more he wants than to be wrong, but he is scared stiff the moment he stops the nonsense things really will take a turn for the worse for Saints.

 

He is everything he doesn't want to be :lol:

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I was hoping Wigan would lose the FA Cup :(

 

They may benefit from a "bounce" on Tuesday? Or they will be knackered??

 

I suggest Saints do us all a favour and stuff Sunderland tomorrow - that way we can all have a restful week and not have to worry !! :)

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I was hoping Wigan would lose the FA Cup :(

 

They may benefit from a "bounce" on Tuesday? Or they will be knackered??

 

I suggest Saints do us all a favour and stuff Sunderland tomorrow - that way we can all have a restful week and not have to worry !! :)[/quote

 

We're also safe is we draw v Sunderland. I'd take that right now. We're 99.9% to stay up whatever the result though.

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I was hoping Wigan would lose the FA Cup :(

 

They may benefit from a "bounce" on Tuesday? Or they will be knackered??

 

I suggest Saints do us all a favour and stuff Sunderland tomorrow - that way we can all have a restful week and not have to worry !! :)

 

I was trying to figure this out the whole of today.

 

On one hand they're going to be elated that they've won the FA Cup, and that could give them a certain amount of belief and resolve going into the final 2 games that they can stay up no matter what.

 

On the other hand, they're proper pleased they've won the FA Cup, so will probably go out partying into the small hours tonight, and then they've got a tough game at Arsenal on Tuesday having played 4 games in 2 weeks (compared to Arsenal's 2 games in 2 weeks).

 

So the elation of winning the cup could mean they are more likely to get a result at Arsenal, or could equally mean they're less likely to get a result at Arsenal...we'll find out on Tuesday night.

 

Just hope Saints put it to bed tomorrow and draw/win, but really can't see that happening unfortunately.

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Doesn't everyone else see through the Dalek persona like I do? He is the worst of the 'happy clappers' - he is so desperate for Saints to do well that he believes if he can be superstitiously negative and downbeat then everything will turn out ok in the end. It bursts through in his posts (most notably his pre-match predictions).

 

It is a part of his routine - predict the worse as superstition that Saints do well if he predicts they won't. He's done it for a good while now and deep down inside there is nothing more he wants than to be wrong, but he is scared stiff the moment he stops the nonsense things really will take a turn for the worse for Saints.

 

He is everything he doesn't want to be :lol:

 

There is some truth in this.

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Doesn't everyone else see through the Dalek persona like I do? He is the worst of the 'happy clappers' - he is so desperate for Saints to do well that he believes if he can be superstitiously negative and downbeat then everything will turn out ok in the end. It bursts through in his posts (most notably his pre-match predictions).

 

It is a part of his routine - predict the worse as superstition that Saints do well if he predicts they won't. He's done it for a good while now and deep down inside there is nothing more he wants than to be wrong, but he is scared stiff the moment he stops the nonsense things really will take a turn for the worse for Saints.

 

He is everything he doesn't want to be :lol:

he hates Hoddle as well
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Simply the only way we can get relegated is if Wigan win both their games and we lose both of ours. 4 points for them isn't enough as our goal difference is very unlikely to be bettered by them. Wigan winning both and us losing both? No..

 

AND Newcastle and Norwich also have to pick up at least 2 points from their final two matches.

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Which they probably will; Toon will beat QPR today. Still don't fancy finishing 17th though so we need points.

 

I'd have taken 17th at the start and prize money aside I don't see how it matters, but I can't see us NOT winning at least one of the last two games anyway. We only need one point for safety though.

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AND Newcastle and Norwich also have to pick up at least 2 points from their final two matches.

 

That's true, but hard to shoe horn into an accumulator.

 

I think the point is that if you want to hedge on Saints being relegated than place an accumulator bet on Sunderland to beat Saints, Wigan to beat Arsenal, Stoke to beat Saints and Wigan to beat Villa. That will get you odds of about 200/1. All four of these results will have to happen for Saints to go down, so this is a wiser hedge than to back Saints to be relegated at 100/1. Of course, you could feasibly win the 200/1 bet and still see Saints survive!

Edited by SaintBobby
Got the Wigan v Arsenal bet the wrong way round!
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That's true, but hard to shoe horn into an accumulator.

 

I think the point is that if you want to hedge on Saints being relegated than place an accumulator bet on Sunderland to beat Saints, Arsenal to beat Wigan, Stoke to beat Saints and Wigan to beat Villa. That will get you odds of about 200/1. All four of these results will have to happen for Saints to go down, so this is a wiser hedge than to back Saints to be relegated at 100/1. Of course, you could feasibly win the 200/1 bet and still see Saints survive!

 

Other way around, but you know that.

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If we stay on 39 points we will be relegated. I have been consistent in my view for many weeks now. There will be twists and turns in the last two games ad we are far from safe.

 

If we stay on 39 we will stay up.

 

More likely not only to stay up but to finish 15th on 39 than get relegated.

 

Relax Dalek, remember I get it right, you don't ;)

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If we stay on 39 points we will be relegated if Norwich and Newcastle win one of their remaining two games. But if we stay on 39 points we would deserve to be relegated. Relax, it won't happen, because we won't finish on 39 points.

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If we stay on 39 we will stay up.

 

More likely not only to stay up but to finish 15th on 39 than get relegated.

 

Relax Dalek, remember I get it right, you don't ;)

 

Probability of coming 15th-18th if we finish on 39 points (%)

22 46 29 3

 

So more than seven times more likely to come 15th than go down if we lose both matches, and fifteen times more likely to come 16th.

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If we stay on 39 points we will be relegated if Norwich and Newcastle win one of their remaining two games. But if we stay on 39 points we would deserve to be relegated. Relax, it won't happen, because we won't finish on 39 points.

 

 

how on earth do you work that out. Wigan will not beat Arsenal so everything else is irrelevant.

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If we stay on 39 points we will be relegated if Norwich and Newcastle win one of their remaining two games. But if we stay on 39 points we would deserve to be relegated. Relax, it won't happen, because we won't finish on 39 points.

 

No, we won't, Wigan need to win 2 matches, including one away to Arsenal before Norwich and Newcastle even come into the equation for us.

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Interesting to see the mood of the forum has changed from it being brilliant that the teams below us were winning as it meant the teams above us were catchable to it now being vital that the teams below us lose as we could still go down. There was me thinking we were on an unstoppable charge to a top half finish.

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No, we won't, Wigan need to win 2 matches, including one away to Arsenal before Norwich and Newcastle even come into the equation for us.

 

Of course Wigan can't beat Arsenal, just like they couldn't beat Man City. Point is that relying on other teams losing is not the way to success in the Prem, it's what your own team does that matters.

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Interesting to see the mood of the forum has changed from it being brilliant that the teams below us were winning as it meant the teams above us were catchable to it now being vital that the teams below us lose as we could still go down. There was me thinking we were on an unstoppable charge to a top half finish.

 

Typical clapper mentality, heads in the clouds for this season and looking forward as well.

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Confirmed safe now right?

 

Unless Stoke beat us 16-0, Wigan win both of their games, Newcastle beat Spurs away and Fulham beat Swansea.

 

So yep, we're safe. As we have been for weeks to be honest! We seemed to want to make it more interesting than it should have been though.

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Unless Stoke beat us 16-0, Wigan win both of their games, Newcastle beat Spurs away and Fulham beat Swansea.

 

So yep, we're safe. As we have been for weeks to be honest! We seemed to want to make it more interesting than it should have been though.

 

You have to spoil it dont you, I wont sleep tonight now :lol:

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