VectisSaint Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 So, you think Wigan will win away at Arsenal? That's a necessary condition for 39 points being insufficient. I don't think they will, but it would not be a surprise. They beat Arsenal away last season during their run-in when they won 5 of their last 6 (2-1 on April 16th). It should not be dismissed out of hand as impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brmbrm Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 No. Not at all. The pessimists need to believe that Wigan will beat both Arsenal and Villa and that Saints will probably fail to collect a single point from our last two games. The Wigan v Arsenal game is totally irrelevant (to Southampton) if: 1. Wigan then fail to beat Villa OR 2. Saints beat Sunderland OR 3. Saints beat Stoke OR 4. Saints get two draws against Sunderland and Stoke OR 5. Saints get only one more point and Villa lose at home to Chelsea. The chance of at least one of these five things happening is pretty high, I'd say. You fail to add that there are THREE OTHER TEAMS who need to get one or two more points. The whole forum has slumped into end-of-season-mid-table-nothingness. The relegaoitn threat was at least something to keep some interest going. Would be nice to end up 10th though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamesaint Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 Hi. I am not going to make excuses for my perfectly valid points. The Wigan defeat against Swansea was a massive boost for our survival hopes. But, I don't think 39 points will be enough to keep us up. If I am wrong, then I will be happy to admit that. Good for you Dalek. You may have some odd views but at least you are still around to defend them. The same cannot be said for Alpy who has fled the scene quicker than you can say " Austrian based troll with psychiatric issues." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 I predict ART will go quiet again for a while to recharge his fantasy story generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 So you think in the next 2 games... - Wigan will win away at Arsneal and win home to Villa POSSIBLE AND - Norwich will pick up 2 points or more from West Brom and Man City PROBABLE AND - Newcastle will pick up 2 points or more from QPR and Arsenal PROBABLE AND - Sunderland will beat Saints PROBABLE AND - Saints lose at home to Stoke POSSIBLE ................ WORTH A BET - Wigan will win away at Arsneal and win home to Villa UNLIKELY AND - Norwich will pick up 2 points or more from West Brom and Man City POSSIBLE AND - Newcastle will pick up 2 points or more from QPR and Arsenal PROBABLE AND - Sunderland will beat Saints POSSIBLE AND - Saints lose at home to Stoke UNLIKELY UNLIKELY*POSSIBLE*PROBABLE*POSSIBLE*UNLIKELY = BLOODY UNLIKELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 So you think in the next 2 games... - Wigan will win away at Arsneal and win home to Villa POSSIBLE AND - Norwich will pick up 2 points or more from West Brom and Man City PROBABLE AND - Newcastle will pick up 2 points or more from QPR and Arsenal PROBABLE AND - Sunderland will beat Saints PROBABLE AND - Saints lose at home to Stoke POSSIBLE ................ WORTH A BET Good post. That is why I think we are not safe yet and that 39 points will see us relegated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 As soon as Wigan lost to Swansea all my (football) cares drifted out of the window. We can play Sunderland without pressure because we are as safe as houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 As soon as Wigan lost to Swansea all my (football) cares drifted out of the window. We can play Sunderland without pressure because we are as safe as houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 Did it take you long to find that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 No. Not at all. The pessimists need to believe that Wigan will beat both Arsenal and Villa and that Saints will probably fail to collect a single point from our last two games. The Wigan v Arsenal game is totally irrelevant (to Southampton) if: 1. Wigan then fail to beat Villa OR 2. Saints beat Sunderland OR 3. Saints beat Stoke OR 4. Saints get two draws against Sunderland and Stoke OR 5. Saints get only one more point and Villa lose at home to Chelsea. The chance of at least one of these five things happening is pretty high, I'd say. You can add to that also the need for both norwich and Newcastle to get at least 2 points each from their last two games! So actually seven things to think about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 (edited) Good post. That is why I think we are not safe yet and that 39 points will see us relegated. I will say it again 39 points will not see us relegated using the above logic we will be relegated next season whatever division we are in, as all other teams in the league will win, and we will lose all our matches so why do we bother entering! Our fate is not only in our own hands but even losing two games a lot of other results have to go against us to go down! we have rarely been this comfortable going into the end of the season in a top league relegation tussle over my 45 years of supporting saints! If anyone offered us the position we are now in with two games to go we would have bitten their hands off when this season kicked off. Edited 9 May, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 I don't think they will, but it would not be a surprise. They beat Arsenal away last season during their run-in when they won 5 of their last 6 (2-1 on April 16th). It should not be dismissed out of hand as impossible. Oh, come on. It would be a major surprise! Look, it's not impossible but a Wigan win would be very surprising - and would also probably mean Arsenal fail to qualify for the Champions League. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 - Wigan will win away at Arsneal and win home to Villa UNLIKELY AND - Norwich will pick up 2 points or more from West Brom and Man City POSSIBLE AND - Newcastle will pick up 2 points or more from QPR and Arsenal PROBABLE AND - Sunderland will beat Saints POSSIBLE AND - Saints lose at home to Stoke UNLIKELY UNLIKELY*POSSIBLE*PROBABLE*POSSIBLE*UNLIKELY = BLOODY UNLIKELY Correct! By way of analogy: - Chance I toss a coin and it comes up heads VERY POSSIBLE - Chance I throw a dice and it gives a number from 3 to 6 PROBABLE - Chance I throw the dice again and it comes up 5 or 6 POSSIBLE - Chance I toss a coin again and it comes up heads again VERY POSSIBLE - Chance I throw a dice again and don't get a 1 or 2 PROBABLE Chance of all these things happening: under 4% (1 in 27 to be accurate....and the chance of Saints relegation is about 1 in 270 or even less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 Good post. That is why I think we are not safe yet and that 39 points will see us relegated. So, to be clear, you think Wigan will beat Arsenal on Tuesday? Can you just answer that simple question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 (edited) Correct! By way of analogy: - Chance I toss a coin and it comes up heads VERY POSSIBLE - Chance I throw a dice and it gives a number from 3 to 6 PROBABLE - Chance I throw the dice again and it comes up 5 or 6 POSSIBLE - Chance I toss a coin again and it comes up heads again VERY POSSIBLE - Chance I throw a dice again and don't get a 1 or 2 PROBABLE Chance of all these things happening: under 4% (1 in 27 to be accurate....and the chance of Saints relegation is about 1 in 270 or even less) That is what probability across a number of events is all about each on its own looks likely to give a particular outcome but taken as a whole! very little chance! Edited 9 May, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 I will say it again 39 points will not see us relegated using the above logic we will be relegated next season whatever division we are in, as all other teams in the league will win, and we will lose all our matches so why do we bother entering! Our fate is not only in our own hands but even losing two games a lot of other results have to go against us to go down! we have rarely been this comfortable going into the end of the season in a top league relegation tussle over my 45 years of supporting saints! If anyone offered us the position we are now in with two games to go we would have bitten their hands off when this season kicked off. Agreed. It is extremely unlikely that Wigan will secure more than 39 points. Their chances of winning both their remaining games is about 22/1. If they don't,, then Saints are safe with 39 points. Even if Wigan get more than 39 points, Norwich might fail to pick up two more points (about 50-50). Even if both Wigan and Norwich get more than 39 points, Newcastle might fail to pick up two more points (again, about 50-50). The chance that the team in 18th will be on more than 39 points is now about 80/1 or 90/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 9 May, 2013 Share Posted 9 May, 2013 You can add to that also the need for both norwich and Newcastle to get at least 2 points each from their last two games! So actually seven things to think about! Quite right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 I don't think they will, but it would not be a surprise. They beat Arsenal away last season during their run-in when they won 5 of their last 6 (2-1 on April 16th). It should not be dismissed out of hand as impossible. Am I the only one that thinks that last year's result makes it much less likely to happen again this year? It is much more fun arguing about the 1000/1 freak events required to send us down rather than the 1000/1 freak events required to keep us up, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynoldson!! Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 last years result won't have any effect at all on the likelihood of a Wigan win this year if we want to get technical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 I'll take that as a yes, then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiggles31 Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Did any of the pessimists watch Wigan on Tuesday? They defend like we did at the start of the season, it is highly likely that they will lose at the Emirates, to a team who will go all out for a win, 4 days after a cup final which will sap the energy from them. Relax. Chil. STFU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Am I the only one that thinks that last year's result makes it much less likely to happen again this year? It is much more fun arguing about the 1000/1 freak events required to send us down rather than the 1000/1 freak events required to keep us up, though. Plus Arsenal are still fighting for a champions league spot. I think we can assume that they'll throw everything including the kitchen sink at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 no because to get a point at Sunderland we'd need err not to lose.. Of course. I must have lost the plot somewhere along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 The use of the "Quote" facility has taken a shocking nose-dive in this thread Post #1020 has Dalek quoted with something that Saint Without a Halo said! Everyone who has read Dalek's posts recently will know that couldn't possibly be him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Ah yeh, I can see clearly where MP has been quoted as saying that. Clearly. You're a nutter! Yes he is. And one I now have on block due to his incessant nonsense, so please stop quoting ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Am I the only one that thinks that last year's result makes it much less likely to happen again this year? It is much more fun arguing about the 1000/1 freak events required to send us down rather than the 1000/1 freak events required to keep us up, though. I dunno if you're the only one, but in terms of probability there's no relationship between the two sets of fixtures so it's no more or less likely than it was last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 (edited) the chance of Saints relegation is about 1 in 270 or even less) 0.386% at the moment, so not far off. We could also take the bookies' odds and calculate how unlikely that set of results actually is. Or at least I could if betting sites weren't blocked where I am. Edited 10 May, 2013 by The9 Fixed the crappy quoting by others. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 There are no easy games, but it doesn't get much easier than a woefully poor Wigan defence at the Emirates a few days after a cup final. They'll give everything saturday. Yes they won last year, but now it's win or bust against a top side that needs to win. Wigan are out of luck IMO, the expectation of a surge in form hasn't helped them. Could be a big loss I think. Hope it's only 1-0 loss, so that a shock win at Villa last day can still overtake Newcastle, who I'm convinced will lose at QPR. I must admit that the Wigan players looked morally shattered on Tuesday night. It would take a lot to motivate them for next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prince Jazzbo Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 The title of this thread is increasingly beginning to remind me of the film Marathon Man 'Is it safe?' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professor Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Did the BBC predictor back in February when Norwich were mid-table and surprised myself by finding that Norwich dropped into the bottom 3 on my predicted results as I hadn't targeted them in any way. It is still quite possible that it could be Norwich who take the coveted (not) 3rd spot. As others have said, it is in our own hands to get 2 points from 2 games and be absolutely safe whatever the results are for the teams beneath us but we can stay up on 39 points if Wigan lose away to Arsenal. You'd have to ask yourself though, if we get no more points, whether a team that ends the season with four straight defeats and only 2 points out of the last 6 games, is fit for the Premier League. I'd say we are fit for this league and therefore I don't expect that to happen but hypothetically, if it did, there would need to be some major surgery in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Did the BBC predictor back in February when Norwich were mid-table and surprised myself by finding that Norwich dropped into the bottom 3 on my predicted results as I hadn't targeted them in any way. It is still quite possible that it could be Norwich who take the coveted (not) 3rd spot. As others have said, it is in our own hands to get 2 points from 2 games and be absolutely safe whatever the results are for the teams beneath us but we can stay up on 39 points if Wigan lose away to Arsenal. You'd have to ask yourself though, if we get no more points, whether a team that ends the season with four straight defeats and only 2 points out of the last 6 games, is fit for the Premier League. I'd say we are fit for this league and therefore I don't expect that to happen but hypothetically, if it did, there would need to be some major surgery in the summer. They are if we don't finish in the bottom 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint1977 Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Saints ought to be getting at least a point out of Sunderland and 3 vs Stoke so this debate should prove irrelevant. Need to focus on the prize money at £800-odd k a place we rise, could net an extra £3-3.5m if we win the last 2 games. If we lost the next 2 some questions will be asked and there might be a bit of additional transfer activity. Don't think we will though and expect us to get 4 points. 43 points = good first season back IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KelvinsRightGlove Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Did the BBC predictor back in February when Norwich were mid-table and surprised myself by finding that Norwich dropped into the bottom 3 on my predicted results as I hadn't targeted them in any way. It is still quite possible that it could be Norwich who take the coveted (not) 3rd spot. As others have said, it is in our own hands to get 2 points from 2 games and be absolutely safe whatever the results are for the teams beneath us but we can stay up on 39 points if Wigan lose away to Arsenal. You'd have to ask yourself though, if we get no more points, whether a team that ends the season with four straight defeats and only 2 points out of the last 6 games, is fit for the Premier League. I'd say we are fit for this league and therefore I don't expect that to happen but hypothetically, if it did, there would need to be some major surgery in the summer. No, you really don't. The league is 38 games. So it is your performance across the entire 38 games that decides whether or not you are fit for the premier league. If you are not, you will finish in the bottom 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 last years result won't have any effect at all on the likelihood of a Wigan win this year if we want to get technical anyway Arsenal won't have the same poor defense that they did last year. Andre Santos at LB and Djourou at CB amongst others. There's a reason why Arsenal shipped those 2 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom & Gerry Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 There is an obvious case for an Arsenal victory against Wigan but you can't take Wigan's last game in isolation. Many have predicted Saints demise in the past on that basis and come unstuck. You have to look at their away form generally and what they are capable of and what they will do when their backs are against the wall. Also Arsenal can get nervous in front of their own fans when a victory is needed. Bookmakers don't just make money from mug bets they make it from favourites getting beat as well.Saints just win at Sunderland and then we can all shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wes Tender Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Oh, come on. It would be a major surprise! Look, it's not impossible but a Wigan win would be very surprising - and would also probably mean Arsenal fail to qualify for the Champions League. Based on their performance last season when they had an incredible run towards survival at the end of the season gaining 21 points from 27 and beating Liverpool, Man Utd, Arsenal and Newcastle amongst others, they would stand a great chance of beating Arsenal this season. But their form towards the end of this season doesn't match that from last season, so I agree, although not impossible, the chances of them beating Arsenal are not so good, as they don't have that momentum behind them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
View From The Top Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Based on their performance last season when they had an incredible run towards survival at the end of the season gaining 21 points from 27 and beating Liverpool, Man Utd, Arsenal and Newcastle amongst others, they would stand a great chance of beating Arsenal this season. But their form towards the end of this season doesn't match that from last season, so I agree, although not impossible, the chances of them beating Arsenal are not so good, as they don't have that momentum behind them now. Saturday will have an impact. Lose the cup final and moral drops even further. Win and they are flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky morris Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Changed my mind & I think we are OK. Arsenal need the points & will get them IMHO, but i have been wrong many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 So, to be clear, you think Wigan will beat Arsenal on Tuesday? Can you just answer that simple question? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Yes. Have you put a bet on it? If not, why not? As you can get odds of 10/1 on a Wigan win! They are long, because it is very unlikely to happen. Can you not understand now why people said you were wrong? Lots of things had to happen for Saints on 39 points not to be enough, yes some of those things might and did happen. But they were never going to ALL happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 Have you put a bet on it? If not, why not? As you can get odds of 10/1 on a Wigan win! They are long, because it is very unlikely to happen. Can you not understand now why people said you were wrong? Lots of things had to happen for Saints on 39 points not to be enough, yes some of those things might and did happen. But they were never going to ALL happen. You are entitled to your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 It will be extremely unlikely that Wigan get more than a point at Arsenal, therefore we are safe even on 39. My worry was always going into Sundays game only a point ahead of the bottom 3, I was worried how that would affect us on the back of 2 defeats. All of a sudden the Sunderland game seems easier, Wigan having blown a 1-0 and 2-1 lead at home , has taken the presure right off us. The big games are now Newcastle - qpr and Norwich -wba , if either of them lose sat, then Wigan have a squeak, if they both pick up 3 points then they're pretty much dead and buried . I just can't see Wigan getting 41 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 With my mind elsewhere (Ottawa Senators playoff run) I have taken a few days break from here. Come back and it's the same 2 or 3 posters trolling. Pathetic really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fowllyd Posted 10 May, 2013 Share Posted 10 May, 2013 With my mind elsewhere (Ottawa Senators playoff run) I have taken a few days break from here. Come back and it's the same 2 or 3 posters trolling. Pathetic really. Interesting electoral system they have in Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 11 May, 2013 Share Posted 11 May, 2013 There is an obvious case for an Arsenal victory against Wigan but you can't take Wigan's last game in isolation. Many have predicted Saints demise in the past on that basis and come unstuck. You have to look at their away form generally and what they are capable of and what they will do when their backs are against the wall. Also Arsenal can get nervous in front of their own fans when a victory is needed. Bookmakers don't just make money from mug bets they make it from favourites getting beat as well.Saints just win at Sunderland and then we can all shut up. That's basically untrue. Bookmakers hate outsiders winning. They can get an edge on 1/3 or 6/1 but they loathe 100/1 shots coming in. The reason Saints odds on relegation are so tight is they are able to sell to bedwetting Saints fans at 60/1 or 100/1 when the real odds are about 1,000/1. That's pure gravy for the bookies and they can cover those sort of cretinous bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 11 May, 2013 Share Posted 11 May, 2013 So, as I was saying, yes Wigan can beat Arsenal. Anyone like to comment ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olallana Posted 11 May, 2013 Share Posted 11 May, 2013 And cue..... Bed-wetters..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 11 May, 2013 Share Posted 11 May, 2013 So, as I was saying, yes Wigan can beat Arsenal. Anyone like to comment ? they can but they won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 11 May, 2013 Share Posted 11 May, 2013 So, as I was saying, yes Wigan can beat Arsenal. Anyone like to comment ? They are 10/1 - sounds about right (their chances are about 9%) Would you like to comment on whether Saints still need 41-43 points to be safe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alain Perrin Posted 11 May, 2013 Share Posted 11 May, 2013 Pity it didn't go to 120mins. But well done Wigan. We needed to get points anyway so I don't think this will change anything. Cracking result for them mind, pity they've got to cancel the **** up. Sent from my RM-821_eu_euro1_276 using Board Express Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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