Are We Safe?

[Smirking_Saint]

I still think we'll go down, but It's looking unlikely now I must admit, but I still wouldn't put it beyond Wigan that they can get something at the Emirates.

 

We've still got to get a minimum of 3 points out of 2 remaining games to be doubly sure of survival, which I really can't see us doing.

 

Ill bet you a nipple cripple that 39 points will be enough this year

[Chewy]

I still think we'll go down, but It's looking unlikely now I must admit, but I still wouldn't put it beyond Wigan that they can get something at the Emirates.

 

We've still got to get a minimum of 3 points out of 2 remaining games to be doubly sure of survival, which I really can't see us doing.

 

We only need 3 points if there's a 12 goal swing. Which won't happen. And Wigan won't beat arsenal. And we won't be relegated. And we will get 3 more points anyway.

[The9]

Nah, you stop first

 

Ok then. I'll also stop overusing "in short" and "for the record" as well. Maybe.

[BlakeySFC]

Quoted for posterity......and for future reference.

 

You'd better go and lose your virginity to take your mind of it.......or change your name to "bleakSFC"

 

I told you yesterday that I've flown Virgin before. They're better than BA, but nothing special.

 

 

We only need 3 points if there's a 12 goal swing. Which won't happen. And Wigan won't beat arsenal. And we won't be relegated. And we will get 3 more points anyway.

 

Still a big 'if' I'm afraid. On paper it's looking that way but to quote Adkins 'Football isn't played on paper is it, it's played on grass.'

Edited 8 May, 2013 by BlakeySFC

[kpturner]

Yeah sure, it was a cunningly devised wind up, it definitely wasn't you talking cobblers and getting called on it.

 

"Would", not "would".

 

(Stylistic purposes)

 

(And again)

Edited 8 May, 2013 by kpturner

[Dark Munster]

I said we'd lose to West Brom...we did.

 

I said we'd lose to Spurs...we did.

 

I'm saying we'll lose to Sunderland and we will.

 

You also said we'd lose each of the previous 6 games before the WBA game. And we didn't.

[kpturner]

You also said we'd lose each of the previous 6 games before the WBA game. And we didn't.

 

Is that true??? I am going to have to keep an eye on Bleakey - must be a suicide risk.

[SaintBobby]

What did you predict? Have you changed your mind? (Or do you still think, perhaps, that we need 41 points "to be safe"?)

 

Here's your chance to alter your prediction and/or explain why you've changed your mind.

 

I'm happy to stick with my view - expressed over many weeks - that 39 points (and our good GD) would always be enough. Actually, I think it quite likely that the team that ends up in 18th place will only have 38 points (or less) and a very poor goal difference.

 

But I'm very interested to hear from those who still think that 40 points or more might be needed. Or that the bookmakers are mad and give no indication of future outcomes. Or those who still think that there is a huge wave of agreement in favour of their theory that 41 points or more will be needed. Or those who still think that Saints will be relegated.

 

Please contribute any smug "I was right" posts below. Or use this opportunity to make a mea culpa.

 

The floor is yours.

 

Happy days.

Edited 8 May, 2013 by SaintBobby
Added to this thread at request of moderator

[Smirking_Saint]

I think 39 points will be enough

[BlakeySFC]

You also said we'd lose each of the previous 6 games before the WBA game. And we didn't.

 

I actually said we'd lose against Norwich, Liverpool, Chelsea and Reading (thankfully I was wrong) and that we'd get a 'point at best' against West Ham and Swansea (which we did)

[SaintBobby]

I still think we'll go down, but It's looking unlikely now I must admit, I still wouldn't put it beyond Wigan that they can get something at the Emirates.

 

We've still got to get a minimum of 3 points out of 2 remaining games to be doubly sure of survival, which I really can't see us doing.

 

You think we'll go down.

 

But you also think it's unlikely that we'll go down.

 

Yep, I see what you're getting at there...

[Smirking_Saint]

You think we'll go down.

 

But you also think it's unlikely that we'll go down.

 

Yep, I see what you're getting at there...

 

I can see what he is on about, but I dont really know what he is talking about

[Chewy]

What did you predict? Have you changed your mind? (Or do you still think, perhaps, that we need 41 points "to be safe"?)

 

Here's your chance to alter your prediction and/or explain why you've changed your mind.

 

I'm happy to stick with my view - expressed over many weeks - that 39 points (and our good GD) would always be enough. Actually, I think it quite likely that the team that ends up in 18th place will only have 38 points (or less) and a very poor goal difference.

 

But I'm very interested to hear from those who still think that 40 points or more might be needed. Or that the bookmakers are mad and give no indication of future outcomes. Or those who still think that there is a huge wave of agreement in favour of their theory that 41 points or more will be needed. Or those who still think that Saints will be relegated.

 

Please contribute any smug "I was right" posts below. Or use this opportunity to make a mea culpa.

 

The floor is yours.

 

Happy days.

 

Ok, I have said for some time that 38 points would be enough and I think this will turn out to be correct. Sorry Dalek.

[musesaint]

Chelski and Spurs result tonight helpful for us I think

[Matthew Le God]

Chelski and Spurs result tonight helpful for us I think

 

Why?

[SaintBobby]

Why?

 

Arsenal absolutely have to go for the win v Wigan. A Chelsea win might just have meant that a draw wouldn't be too awful for them. But now, they have to go for 3 points? Anyway, I think that's the reasoning....?

[Matthew Le God]

1st, 2nd, 3rd place gets you straight into the group stages of the Champions League. 4th place doesn't, so Arsenal still would have an incentive.

[SaintBobby]

1st, 2nd, 3rd place gets you straight into the group stages of the Champions League. 4th place doesn't, so Arsenal still would have an incentive.

 

Sure...the gap between 3rd and 4th matters - but nothing like as much as the gap between 4th and 5th matters.

 

Yep, I know English teams have screwed up in the preliminary round before - but it's hardly a disaster to be in it as opposed to the group stages,

[BlakeySFC]

Arsenal absolutely have to go for the win v Wigan. A Chelsea win might just have meant that a draw wouldn't be too awful for them. But now, they have to go for 3 points? Anyway, I think that's the reasoning....?

 

Arsenal are currently 4th on 67 points, Spurs are 5th on 66.

 

If Spurs beat Stoke at the Britannia on Saturday they'll be 4th on 69 points, which would put Spurs 2 points ahead of Arsenal, who'd drop down to 5th.

 

Arsenal's 'game in hand' over Spurs would be the Wigan home game on Tuesday night, so it is a must win for them to reclaim 4th spot (and maybe even 3rd).

Edited 9 May, 2013 by BlakeySFC

[Dark Munster]

I actually said we'd lose against Norwich, Liverpool, Chelsea and Reading (thankfully I was wrong) and that we'd get a 'point at best' against West Ham and Swansea (which we did)

 

Originally Posted by BlakeySFC

Chelsea: Loss,

Reading: Loss,

West Ham: Loss,

Swansea: Loss,

West Brom: Loss,

Spurs: Loss,

Sunderland: Loss,

Stoke: Loss.

 

Don't think we'll get another point this season.

[Saint Paul C]

Aston Villa v Chelsea - Away Win

Stoke v Tottenham - Away Win

Everton v West Ham - Home Win

Fulham v Liverpool - Away Win

Norwich v West Brom - Away Win

QPR v Newcastle - Away Win

Sunderland v Southampton - Draw

Man Utd v Swansea - Home win

[martel]

I still think we'll go down, but It's looking unlikely now I must admit, I still wouldn't put it beyond Wigan that they can get something at the Emirates.

 

We've still got to get a minimum of 3 points out of 2 remaining games to be doubly sure of survival, which I really can't see us doing.

 

I remember you, you were in "on the buses"

[Barry Sanchez]

Its sort of strange us feeling smug after another teams defeat as opposed to our victory...............

[SaintBobby]

Its sort of strange us feeling smug after another teams defeat as opposed to our victory...............

 

Given we weren't playing on Tuesday night, would be hard to have celebrated a Sainst victory.

[The9]

I think Wigan will get relegated with (at most) 38 points, meaning 39 would indeed be enough.

 

However, ideally what I'd like is for Villa to lose on Saturday to Chelsea, Saints to win on Sunday, Wigan to get a highly unlikely result against Arsenal as we're already safe, and relegate Villa on the last day. That's because I've been saying Villa are gash all season, they've only beaten sides in the bottom 6 for months now, and Wigan are far less of a threat to us going forward than Villa might be.

 

Of course that would also necessitate decent results for Norwich, which look fairly unlikely. I can see Newcastle beating QPR though.

[Batman]

Its sort of strange us feeling smug after another teams defeat as opposed to our victory...............

 

I have been smug since we got 39 points, clearly you have not

[LaptopSaint]

If Villa lose to Chelski and we get a point at Sunderland, we can't go down. Do the maths.

[Jimmy_D]

If Villa lose to Chelski and we get a point at Sunderland, we can't go down. Do the maths.

 

Realistically, no, but it's still possible if we lose our final game (very!) heavily and Wigan win against Villa.

[Tom & Gerry]

It really all comes down to how Wigan get on at Arsenal doesn't it ?

The difference between the confident and the pessimists all comes down to that one result.

You might think Wigan are unlikely to win at Arsenal but no one can say they are not capable of it. Remember how they tore Everton apart in the cup and how they outplayed us at St Marys. I thought we were certain to go down and still think the Managerial change was a reckless gamble that may only just come off. Not because the new Manager isn't good, I hadn't reckoned on us beating Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool (who had?) but because of the timing when he had no experience of a Premier league relegation battle and our recent results bear that out.

[Window Cleaner]

Realistically, no, but it's still possible if we lose our final game (very!) heavily and Wigan win against Villa.

 

but the goals they'd need to inflict on Villa would take Villa's GD below ours in virtually every scenario. As it stands we'd need to

lose by a minimum of 13 goals if Villa were only to lose by 1 each time. 13-0 defeats do not happen

[Whitey Grandad]

but the goals they'd need to inflict on Villa would take Villa's GD below ours in virtually every scenario. As it stands we'd need to

lose by a minimum of 13 goals if Villa were only to lose by 1 each time. 13-0 defeats do not happen

It could be two defeats totalling 13 goals.

[Window Cleaner]

It could be two defeats totalling 13 goals.

 

no because to get a point at Sunderland we'd need err not to lose..

Edited 9 May, 2013 by Window Cleaner

[Tamesaint]

Where are Dalek and Alpy ??

 

Have they decided what we have all known all along - that their views are worth sweet FA ??

[Window Cleaner]

Where are Dalek and Alpy ??

 

Have they decided what we have all known all along - that their views are worth sweet FA ??

 

busy laundering a big pile of wet pants

[VectisSaint]

Realistically, no, but it's still possible if we lose our final game (very!) heavily and Wigan win against Villa.

It would require a goal difference swing of more than 12 goals even if Villa lost both games by 1 goal only. Ok we've had some bad games this season but in general in 2013 our defence has been pretty good. Its still technically possible that we will be deducted 9 points for failing to settle with Franny Benali earlier in the season but in truth its unlikely.

[mcjwills]

I still think we'll go down, but It's looking unlikely now I must admit, I still wouldn't put it beyond Wigan that they can get something at the Emirates.

 

We've still got to get a minimum of 3 points out of 2 remaining games to be doubly sure of survival, which I really can't see us doing.

 

I have more chance of a threesome with Kylie & Danni Minogue than us getting relegated.

[Dalek2003]

Where are Dalek and Alpy ??

 

Have they decided what we have all known all along - that their views are worth sweet FA ??

 

Hi. I am not going to make excuses for my perfectly valid points. The Wigan defeat against Swansea was a massive boost for our survival hopes. But, I don't think 39 points will be enough to keep us up. If I am wrong, then I will be happy to admit that.

[Window Cleaner]

Hi. I am not going to make excuses for my perfectly valid points. The Wigan defeat against Swansea was a massive boost for our survival hopes. But, I don't think 39 points will be enough to keep us up. If I am wrong, then I will be happy to admit that.

 

how would it not be then ? Good job you're not a bookie, well for you anyway. Plus with Martinez probably f*cking off to Everton

I can see some right old upheaval at Wigan this week. They will get smashed 3 times.

[Matthew Le God]

I don't think 39 points will be enough to keep us up. If I am wrong, then I will be happy to admit that.

 

So you think in the next 2 games...

 

- Wigan will win away at Arsneal and win home to Villa

 

AND

 

- Norwich will pick up 2 points or more from West Brom and Man City

 

AND

 

- Newcastle will pick up 2 points or more from QPR and Arsenal

 

AND

 

- Sunderland will beat Saints

 

AND

 

- Saints lose at home to Stoke

 

................

 

It would take ALL those things to happen for Saints to go down on 39 points. Not just a few of them, ALL of them.

 

It is very, very, very unlikely as many people have been telling you for the past few weeks. You just stick your fingers in your ears and continue with the same nonsense.

 

I am not going to make excuses for my perfectly valid points.

 

They weren't valid at all! For what you said to occur a huge number of events would have to go against Saints. Of course some games would, but it was always extremely unlikely enough things would go against Saints for them to go down. 39 points will be enough to stay up, just as people told you weeks ago.

Edited 9 May, 2013 by Matthew Le God

[Tom & Gerry]

So you think in the next 2 games...

 

- Wigan will win away at Arsneal and win home to Villa POSSIBLE

AND

 

- Norwich will pick up 2 points or more from West Brom and Man City PROBABLE

AND

 

- Newcastle will pick up 2 points or more from QPR and Arsenal PROBABLE

AND

 

- Sunderland will beat Saints PROBABLE

AND

 

- Saints lose at home to Stoke POSSIBLE

................

 

WORTH A BET

[ludgershallsaint]

So you think in the next 2 games...

 

- Wigan will win away at Arsneal and win home to Villa POSSIBLE

AND

 

- Norwich will pick up 2 points or more from West Brom and Man City PROBABLE

AND

 

- Newcastle will pick up 2 points or more from QPR and Arsenal PROBABLE

AND

 

- Sunderland will beat Saints PROBABLE

AND

 

- Saints lose at home to Stoke POSSIBLE

................

 

WORTH A BET

 

No it isn't. Because they ALL have to happen

[ART]

The comments about Clyne are just yet another of inspirational quotes which will do so much to motivate the players for the last 2 games. Not even Redknapp was that bad.

 

http://www.ftbpro.com/posts/robby.snead/177372/southampton-to-swoop-for-malaga-s-jesus-gamez?ref=facebook&team=Southampton

[The Kraken]

The comments about Clyne are just yet another of inspirational quotes which will do so much to motivate the players for the last 2 games. Not even Redknapp was that bad.

 

http://www.ftbpro.com/posts/robby.snead/177372/southampton-to-swoop-for-malaga-s-jesus-gamez?ref=facebook&team=Southampton

 

Which comments? Those of the reporter?

[S-Clarke]

The comments about Clyne are just yet another of inspirational quotes which will do so much to motivate the players for the last 2 games. Not even Redknapp was that bad.

 

http://www.ftbpro.com/posts/robby.snead/177372/southampton-to-swoop-for-malaga-s-jesus-gamez?ref=facebook&team=Southampton

 

Ah yeh, I can see clearly where MP has been quoted as saying that. Clearly.

 

You're a nutter!

[Bearsy]

robby snead is certainly not a man motivator! But then i spose that's not really his job

[ART]

Try spending a little time watching Spain, French and German TV and read their newspapers first hand with the interviews Pochettino gives on his plans. He quotes player after players he's planning on bringing to Saints. Oh, I forgot, you only speak Hampshire Hoggish

[The Kraken]

Try spending a little time watching Spain, French and German TV and read their newspapers first hand with the interviews Pochettino gives on his plans. He quotes player after players he's planning on bringing to Saints. Oh, I forgot, you only speak Hampshire Hoggish

I'm fluent in French; send a couple of links would you please Art? I'll google translate any Spanish and German newspaper links too. Cheers.

[SaintBobby]

Hi. I am not going to make excuses for my perfectly valid points. The Wigan defeat against Swansea was a massive boost for our survival hopes. But, I don't think 39 points will be enough to keep us up. If I am wrong, then I will be happy to admit that.

 

So, you think Wigan will win away at Arsenal? That's a necessary condition for 39 points being insufficient.

 

You still think we need 41? (in which case you think Wigan will thrash Arsenal and Villa and we will be thrashed by Stoke and Sunderland)

Edited 9 May, 2013 by SaintBobby

[SaintBobby]

It really all comes down to how Wigan get on at Arsenal doesn't it ?

The difference between the confident and the pessimists all comes down to that one result.

You might think Wigan are unlikely to win at Arsenal but no one can say they are not capable of it. Remember how they tore Everton apart in the cup and how they outplayed us at St Marys. I thought we were certain to go down and still think the Managerial change was a reckless gamble that may only just come off. Not because the new Manager isn't good, I hadn't reckoned on us beating Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool (who had?) but because of the timing when he had no experience of a Premier league relegation battle and our recent results bear that out.

 

No. Not at all.

 

The pessimists need to believe that Wigan will beat both Arsenal and Villa and that Saints will probably fail to collect a single point from our last two games.

 

The Wigan v Arsenal game is totally irrelevant (to Southampton) if:

 

1. Wigan then fail to beat Villa OR

2. Saints beat Sunderland OR

3. Saints beat Stoke OR

4. Saints get two draws against Sunderland and Stoke OR

5. Saints get only one more point and Villa lose at home to Chelsea.

 

The chance of at least one of these five things happening is pretty high, I'd say.

[VectisSaint]

Try spending a little time watching Spain, French and German TV and read their newspapers first hand with the interviews Pochettino gives on his plans. He quotes player after players he's planning on bringing to Saints. Oh, I forgot, you only speak Hampshire Hoggish

Please add some links to these Spanish, French and German papers, I'm sure like English papers they are all online. For sure they will all be direct quotes as well. I don't speak 'ampshire 'oggish (not being from 'ampshire), and could do a reasonable translation of the French and Spanish, and with help from work colleagues could tackle the German as well. Pity the reports are not in Latin then I would really be happy.