Kingsbridge Saint Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 If we lose the last 3 its going to be close. On that basis, we're not safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludgershallsaint Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 If we lose the last 3 its going to be close. On that basis, we're not safe. If we lost the lot everyone else with the exception of Sunderland would probably need 40 to finish above us. Can't see it personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHAPEL END CHARLIE Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 (edited) If we lose the last 3 its going to be close. On that basis, we're not safe. Quite right. With so few games remaining and with the table so close we're not 'safe' until this becomes a mathematical certainty. To assume otherwise is the height of folly. Edited 28 April, 2013 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surrey1saint Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Odds are with us to stay up. If everything goes against us in remaining games,including other results it could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I'll be £8,500 richer if we get relegated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludgershallsaint Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I'll be £8,500 richer if we get relegated On a stake of ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 (edited) I have my neck out weeks ago and said that 39 points will see us relegaeted. I stand by this, and I can see us going down. And I told you 39 points (in fact I think it was 38 ) would see us safe. I stand by this and can't see us going down. Makes me laugh how people think 5 teams, who are all averaging around a point a game over the season, are all suddenly going to make up deficits of 1, 2, 5 and 7 points. And you can add a further point to most of those because of goal difference. Of course it's mathematically possible - if every result goes against us we can be relegated by 4 points. But the chances of all 30+ games going against us, with wild changes in form by teams who are fundamentally bad (have you actually seen villas defence???) is so remote that you can all relax - its not going to happen. Edited 28 April, 2013 by Chewy Unintentional face thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 On a stake of ? I won c.£100 on WBA yesterday (£25 stake) so put the winnings on Saints to be relegated at 80/1 to go with another relegation bet at 33/1 a few weeks ago. I only dabble in gambling at the end of Saints season.... "Lost" a similar sum when we beat Coventry end of last season. It's my one irrational indulgence (or one of two if you count going to Chris de Burgh concerts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fitzhugh Fella Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I have a tenner on 100/1 but I really hope I don't collect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graffito Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I have a tenner on 100/1 but I really hope I don't collect So why place the bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 So why place the bet? In my case is completely irrational reverse psychology. Yes, I know I can't influence the team but that's the irrationality aspect - I never win lots of money ergo Saints won't get relegated... 100% Bonkers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 And I told you 39 points (in fact I think it was 38 ) would see us safe. I stand by this and can't see us going down. Makes me laugh how people think 5 teams, who are all averaging around a point a game over the season, are all suddenly going to make up deficits of 1, 2, 5 and 7 points. And you can add a further point to most of those because of goal difference. Of course it's mathematically possible - if every result goes against us we can be relegated by 4 points. But the chances of all 30+ games going against us, with wild changes in form by teams who are fundamentally bad (have you actually seen villas defence???) is so remote that you can all relax - its not going to happen. Those teams are now scrapping for their lives, they will up their game and perform better than mid season. For the umpteenth time, if we stay on 39 points we will go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Notice we have re-entered the Sunday Times 'struggle for survival' list. Still, the Titanic moves on full speed ahead whilst the captain dines with the passengers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I have a tenner on 100/1 but I really hope I don't collect I thought you had a crisis of conscience last season when you bet on the Leicester-Wham game and spent your blood money at Waitrose? Never again and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musesaint Posted 28 April, 2013 Author Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Much as I hate to say it ...we need Sunderland to convincingly thrash Villa tomorrow That way Villa enter a world of pain and Sunderland will be less arsed about having to go for a win when they play us in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Wigan's next 2 are the big ones. WBA and Swansea, win them and it's going to get tight. The thing that makes me a bit more at ease is Villa-Wigan on the last day, as they both cant get 3 points. I've just got a feeling that they'll both need 3 to overtake us, so we should be ok. If you look at the fixtures there's a lot of sides playing each other, so even if Villa win the next 2, they're against Sunderland and Norwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerx16 Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Notice we have re-entered the Sunday Times 'struggle for survival' list. Still, the Titanic moves on full speed ahead whilst the captain dines with the passengers. Are you Alpine in disguise ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micky Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 We are so safe that I think the plan is to relegate Stoke on the last day of the season.... Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilippineSaint Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 We are so safe that I think the plan is to relegate Stoke on the last day of the season.... This I Like, and can we get use of the stripes on the shirts next season in a slightly different style though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iansums Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Some of you are really struggling with this one. Have a look at the league table, dig out a pencil and paper. It really is very simple, the answer is No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludgershallsaint Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Some of you are really struggling with this one. Have a look at the league table, dig out a pencil and paper. It really is very simple, the answer is No. I think you're missing the point. People are looking beyond the simple mathematics and considering HOW LIKELY a scenario over the next 3 (4 for some) games is that has Saints finishing 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 If we lose the last 3 its going to be close. On that basis, we're not safe. I'm not sure I really buy that. I'd have said Man Utd were easily safe by the time they'd accumulated 39 points, although it would have been true that they'd be cutting it fine if they'd lost all their remaining games. Sure, it's more likely we will lose 3 in a row than Man Utd would lose c.23 in a row, but this really comes down to whether you're using absolute maths or not. There is still a very small % chance we'll go down, but as I've said before, if you're worried about the future of Saints over the next few months, relegation should not be your top worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 (edited) Some of you are really struggling with this one. Have a look at the league table, dig out a pencil and paper. It really is very simple, the answer is No. It's also true, as I type, that neither QPR nor Reading are 100% sure to be relegated, but it's so certain both will be as to make no real difference. Edited 28 April, 2013 by SaintBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Quite right. With so few games remaining and with the table so close we're not 'safe' until this becomes a mathematical certainty. To assume otherwise is the height of folly. Again, I don'y buy this. If I recall, when we kicked off our last League One game against Walsall, we weren't mathematically safe. If we'd lost 7-0 and Huddersfield had won 8-0, we'd have been pipped for the 2nd slot. We weren't really mathematically safe until, what?, the last 10 or 15 minutes of that game. But it would have been an odd thing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulletsaint Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I think we'll be safe, especially as the teams below and around us will take points off each other. The big problem for me is the tough nature of next week's fixture. Lose that and we could be dragged into it. Nerves play a big part in a teams performance and the closer we get the more problems we could cause for ourselves. However we should be able to pick up two or three points from the next three matches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I think we'll be safe, especially as the teams below and around us will take points off each other. The big problem for me is the tough nature of next week's fixture. Lose that and we could be dragged into it. Nerves play a big part in a teams performance and the closer we get the more problems we could cause for ourselves. However we should be able to pick up two or three points from the next three matches. Next week's fixture is more important for Spurs than it is for us. If the Arse should beat Utd today then Spurs will be 3 points off the pace for the CL and their game against Chelsea on on the Wednesday will take on a new dimension. We need to go at them from the off and try to rattle them because they will be easily rattled under those circumstances. I'd bench Lambert cos he'll get nothing from Dawson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Those teams are now scrapping for their lives, they will up their game and perform better than mid season. For the umpteenth time, if we stay on 39 points we will go down. No we won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Tony Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Mathematically we are not safe, but the odds on our relegation suggest we are. I think we will only get one point from the last 3 but that should be enough. It might be a disappointing and nervy ending to the season but considering our start, survival in any way is a success IMO. In a way I suppose it makes it a bit more interesting now, after we thought we were home and dry a couple of weeks ago! Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KelvinsRightGlove Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 And I told you 39 points (in fact I think it was 38 ) would see us safe. I stand by this and can't see us going down. Makes me laugh how people think 5 teams, who are all averaging around a point a game over the season, are all suddenly going to make up deficits of 1, 2, 5 and 7 points. And you can add a further point to most of those because of goal difference. Of course it's mathematically possible - if every result goes against us we can be relegated by 4 points. But the chances of all 30+ games going against us, with wild changes in form by teams who are fundamentally bad (have you actually seen villas defence???) is so remote that you can all relax - its not going to happen. Well said that man. I can't understand the thinking of the people that think teams that have been struggling all season are suddenly going to win all their games. One team, maybe, but for us to go down 5 teams would need to have an upturn in form and overturn us. It isn't going to happen. Yes, yesterday we were awful. But as all the pampers posse always say after a win, it's just one game. All teams play crap and get battered now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 No way. Don't think we'll get another point this season, got 2 tough away games at Spurs and Sunderland and then a tough home game against Stoke. I still expect us to be relegated, I knew the great form we've produced in the last 6 weeks or so couldn't be sustained and the downward spiral would begin, the loss to WBA is just the beginning of the downward spiral towards relegation in my opinion. I believe this makes you certifiably insane. Our chance of being relegated stood at 0.07% this morning. That will probably have slightly improved following the Reading/QPR draw. Just to make this clear, based on statistical probability, even three defeats leaves us with only a 1% chance of getting relegated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 No way. Don't think we'll get another point this season, got 2 tough away games at Spurs and Sunderland and then a tough home game against Stoke. I still expect us to be relegated, I knew the great form we've produced in the last 6 weeks or so couldn't be sustained and the downward spiral would begin, the loss to WBA is just the beginning of the downward spiral towards relegation in my opinion. Blimey - the 23 year old certifiable depressive is at it on this thread as well. Perhaps you can give us the sequence of results that will result in, for example, Wigan and Aston Villa both getting 39 points (or more) given that they have to play each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Blimey - the 23 year old certifiable depressive is at it on this thread as well. Perhaps you can give us the sequence of results that will result in, for example, Wigan and Aston Villa both getting 39 points (or more) given that they have to play each other. Spurs 1-0 Saints Villa 1-0 Sunderland Norwich 0-1 Villa WBA 0-1 Wigan Wigan 1-0 Swansea Sunderland 1-0 Southampton Norwich 1-0 WBA QPR 0-1 Newcastle Would mean last day Norwich 41 Newcastle 40 Sunderland 40 Villa 40 Saints 39 Wigan 38 Forget about the 1-0, but the results aren't that far fetched. If Wigan beat Villa last day and we will need a point home to Stoke. Ok, we'd have taken that in Oct, but not 3 games ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 West brom are going to have to drop a few levels for those two results. And Sunderland to be rubbish enough to lose to villa but good enough to beat us? And Norwich, good enough to win at west brom but bad enough to lose at home to villa. Mathematically possible, utterly improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joensuu Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Is it safe to return to the board? You always have to give it 24 hours after a defeat, as all the usual negative customers, and 'in it for the reactionists' run amok. Can I assume they have all had their fill of negativity, and put the world to rights by emphasising every half negative that can scrape together? Let's bang a nail into this 'are we safe' debate. Yes, yes we are very safe. If we were to lose all of our remaining games it is only 1% likely that we will go down. In other words, if we could replay the season 100 time from this point to the end, and in each of those 100 replays we lose all three games, 99 times we would stay up. This is not over-confidence; quite simply even if we lose all of our remaining games we have more chance of finishing 14th than 18th. BlakeySFC - If yesterday was the beginning of a spiral to relegation, it's going to be a long-winded spiral, there will be at least 41 games to play before we could go down. Dalek - you are wrong, plain wrong (oh, and Hoddle was overrated at the time, and would definately have taken us down had he been managing us this season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Spurs 1-0 Saints Villa 1-0 Sunderland Norwich 0-1 Villa WBA 0-1 Wigan Wigan 1-0 Swansea Sunderland 1-0 Southampton Norwich 1-0 WBA QPR 0-1 Newcastle Would mean last day Norwich 41 Newcastle 40 Sunderland 40 Villa 40 Saints 39 Wigan 38 Forget about the 1-0, but the results aren't that far fetched. If Wigan beat Villa last day and we will need a point home to Stoke. Ok, we'd have taken that in Oct, but not 3 games ago. And how much money are you willing to wager on that set of results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 And how much money are you willing to wager on that set of results? Might be more interesting to see what odds that set of results would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 West brom are going to have to drop a few levels for those two results. And Sunderland to be rubbish enough to lose to villa but good enough to beat us? And Norwich, good enough to win at west brom but bad enough to lose at home to villa. Mathematically possible, utterly improbable. We were good enough to beat City and Chelsea yet bad enough to lose to QPR, so yes Sunderland are capable of losing to Villa then beating us. I'm not saying it will happen, but I will start to get a bit twitchy if Villa win Monday. Everyone has mid table "on the beach" teams to play and that worries me. Only getting 1 point from Swansea and WBA (however well they played) has left me a bit more nervous than I should be and I would much prefer Stoke (our last really winnable match) not being last day. I still think we'll be ok, but we're not as safe as some seem to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Might be more interesting to see what odds that set of results would be. I am no bookie - but I would imagine the odds would be astronomic. What Mr Duckhunter has done is piece together a set of results that individually are entirely possible - but collectively are nigh on impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league Spurs beat Saints 4/7 Villa beat Sunderland 13/10 Norwich lose to Villa 11/5 WBA lose to Wigan 12/5 Wigan beat Swansea 23/17 Sunderland beat Southampton 5/4 Norwich beat WBA 13/10 QPR lose to Newcastle 8/5 Someone work that out, I'm trying to watch Newport v Grimsby... (Don't forget that Stoke, Fulham, West Ham and Swansea would all need to not lose all their games as well, and that list already includes one Swansea defeat). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 We were good enough to beat City and Chelsea yet bad enough to lose to QPR, so yes Sunderland are capable of losing to Villa then beating us. I'm not saying it will happen, but I will start to get a bit twitchy if Villa win Monday. Everyone has mid table "on the beach" teams to play and that worries me. Only getting 1 point from Swansea and WBA (however well they played) has left me a bit more nervous than I should be and I would much prefer Stoke (our last really winnable match) not being last day. I still think we'll be ok, but we're not as safe as some seem to think. You don't consider Sunderland away to be winnable? It will be difficult for sure, but it is a winnable game defo - and as I am going at great expense we had bloody well better get a result! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I am no bookie - but I would imagine the odds would be astronomic. What Mr Duckhunter has done is piece together a set of results that individually are entirely possible - but collectively are nigh on impossible. I hope you're right, I just have a real nasty feeling about this. I genuinely cant seeing getting anything from Spurs and Sunderland, so it's all down to what Wigan and Villa do. Wigan are capable and Villa have a half decent forward line. Really could do with Sunderland turning them over Mon, but that'll mean 3 in a row and I really cant see that. Draw maybe the best we can hope for, which will leave Villa 4 behind with 3 to play. If Villa draw Mon , with them having Chelsea and Wigan, and Wigan having Arsenal, I'll start to relax as it'll start to look pretty impossible for both to pip us. In the meantime I'm going to worry, if that's ok with everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 We are welcome to worry, but you should probably be more worried about the following : You are only 10 times more likely to die in a house fire than Saints are to get relegated from the current position. You are 20 times more likely to get cheated on than Saints are to get relegated. You are also 20 times more likely to sustain a concussion, or to die of heart disease, than Saints are to get relegated. You are precisely AS likely to die of obesity as Saints are to get relegated. http://greatist.com/health/your-top-20-fears-and-how-much-you-should-worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 But saints are more likely to go down than I am of winning the lottery, which is a bit annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I believe this makes you certifiably insane. Our chance of being relegated stood at 0.07% this morning. That will probably have slightly improved following the Reading/QPR draw. Just to make this clear, based on statistical probability, even three defeats leaves us with only a 1% chance of getting relegated. Don't certify him insane - on march 10th he said he'd bet his house on saints being relegated and I took him up on the offer, so need him declared mentally fit. Mind you, he did say wed be joined by reading and Wigan, so qpr would obviously be safe ... Fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Those teams are now scrapping for their lives, they will up their game and perform better than mid season. For the umpteenth time, if we stay on 39 points we will go down. For the Upteenth time No we wont! 39 is fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fitzhugh Fella Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 I thought you had a crisis of conscience last season when you bet on the Leicester-Wham game and spent your blood money at Waitrose? Never again and all that. You have a good memory - I bet against Saints to prove to the Gods that I don't believe in tempting fate - or at least I think that is my rationale. Although I once won a 125/1 bet on Saints that won me £1250. I think we will stay up but there are always unexpected twists and turns in football and I won't sleep easy until maths tell me to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 We are welcome to worry, but you should probably be more worried about the following : You are only 10 times more likely to die in a house fire than Saints are to get relegated from the current position. You are 20 times more likely to get cheated on than Saints are to get relegated. You are also 20 times more likely to sustain a concussion, or to die of heart disease, than Saints are to get relegated. You are precisely AS likely to die of obesity as Saints are to get relegated. http://greatist.com/health/your-top-20-fears-and-how-much-you-should-worry That's it, I've just put a £5 on my results to soften the blow IF a freak set of results. £5,865.50 will be the winnings. I'm hoping my £5 goes up in smoke tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Quite right. With so few games remaining and with the table so close we're not 'safe' until this becomes a mathematical certainty. To assume otherwise is the height of folly. Watch out ! This is to commit an act heresy with some posters on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Watch out ! This is to commit an act heresy with some posters on this board. Do we still need 43 points to be safe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 28 April, 2013 Share Posted 28 April, 2013 Don't certify him insane - on march 10th he said he'd bet his house on saints being relegated and I took him up on the offer, so need him declared mentally fit. Mind you, he did say wed be joined by reading and Wigan, so qpr would obviously be safe ... Fail! Ooh, ok. He's sane then, just stupid ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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