jimmysaint7 Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 The battle for 4th place is very significant in all of this. If Spurs don't pick up points at Chelsea tomorrow or against Stoke on Sunday then Arsenal are guaranteed 4th which means they can play the reserves against Wigan - A game I can see Wigan winning. We need Spurs to stay in the chase so that Arsenal go into their game against Wigan needing 3 points to secure 4th place. If spurs lost both going into the wigan game arsenal would only be 2above spurs so they would still need something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 Not so sure. I think it's quite feasible that one or more of Newcastle and Norwich will lose their last two games meaning one Wigan win would probably keep them up, as long as they don't get hammered in their other match. I can see a Wigan win against Villa sending one of the Ns down. I see that as a possibility, but I just don't think Wigan have the required quality to be honest. They're missing so many players now it's untrue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beatlesaint Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 If spurs lost both going into the wigan game arsenal would only be 2above spurs so they would still need something Thats right, I dont know what the other guy is on about. If Spurs lose both games then Arsenal need to beat Wigan to claim that 4th spot. If Spurs pick up points then Arsenal will probably need to beat both Wigan and Newcastle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 Also interesting to note the teams from WBA down are all currently lining up in the table in accordance to their goal difference the only exception being Villa who are punching above their GD weight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 We'll get a point at Sunderland+Chelsea will beat Villa=We'll be safe We are and have been safe since getting to 39 points! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 This shows just how difficult it is to make up a 6 point difference over 6 games, when there are many teams below us, and this is why probabilities and bookies are inevitably right and we were always safe on 39 points what ever the wrist slitters said! QED Yet you've provided an example in which there are eight examples of teams making up 6 points or more difference on other teams. Again, fundamentally you're talking sense, you're just not using good examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 (edited) Yet you've provided an example in which there are eight examples of teams making up 6 points or more difference on other teams. Again, fundamentally you're talking sense, you're just not using good examples. There are 6 teams making up 6 points over one team in this case Fulham but even then there are three teams who dont! Norwich, Swansea and Newcastle so they are still effectively safe if they had the points in the bag! Also I have used a 6 game series for this to happen when many on here saw it happening over 3! The issue is, it is not only the points difference that matters but equally importantly are the number of teams below you that need to ovetake you. It is difficult for 5 or 6 teams to overtake a team over 6 games almost impossible over 3! That is why we were always safe on 39 points as the probailities showed! Edited 7 May, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 There are 6 teams making up 6 points over one team in this case Fulham but even then there are three teams who dont! Norwich, Swansea and Newcastle so they are still effectively safe if they had the points in the bag! Also I have used a 6 game series for this to happen when many on here saw it happening over 3! The issue is, it is not only the points difference that matters but equally importantly are the number of teams below you that need to ovetake you. It is difficult for 5 or 6 teams to overtake a team over 6 games almost impossible over 3! That is why we were always safe on 39 points as the probailities showed! Yeah, I know. Especially when they're all playing each other. That's why our odds of survival actually improved despite losing to Spurs, the sides around us also mostly dropped points from playing relegation rivals, reducing the overall total Saints' rivals could reach, in matches they were expected to get more points from. For every team on a streak escaping the pack there was one being left behind below us. Couldn't be illustrated any better than the final day of the season with Wigan v Villa, if we can get above Villa following their unexpected hot streak of beating crappy sides, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 The battle for 4th place is very significant in all of this. If Spurs don't pick up points at Chelsea tomorrow or against Stoke on Sunday then Arsenal are guaranteed 4th which means they can play the reserves against Wigan - A game I can see Wigan winning. We need Spurs to stay in the chase so that Arsenal go into their game against Wigan needing 3 points to secure 4th place. Even if they were guaranteed 4th place (which they won't be), they would still want to win to get to 3rd place. The top 3 have automatic CL qualification, whereas the 4th placed team has to play a qualifying CL match next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilippineSaint Posted 7 May, 2013 Share Posted 7 May, 2013 in answer to the OP Yes we are safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Wigan will get 6 points, Newcastle, Norwich 3 and us I think we'll struggle to get 1. My reasoning, look at all the "nailed on -must win home games" (Wigan, Norwich, Sunderland, QPR, west brom, Fulham etc) Wow, really? Tell me your lottery numbers and I'll avoid them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 We are and have been safe since getting to 39 points! Pretty much, yes. Looked iffy after a horrid set of results on Saturday. But it's nearly impossible to see us getting relegated now, even if we lose our two remaining games 8-0. We may yet finish in the top half. But I think that's a bit of a stretch, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angelman Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Wigan are gone now. Good riddance is all I can say. I admire Wigan for what they are and what they achieve. They have a small catchment, recognise that and definitely work with a sensible budget, at least in recent years, turning in profits for the last couple of years. http://www.cockneylatic.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1280:wigan-athletic-reveals-net-profit-and-who-controls-the-dw-stadium&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=50. Granted their debts a few years ago were getting out of hand, but Dave W has put a stop to that. Personally I would like all clubs run along similar lines (including us). I first went to football in the mid 1970s when players were earning hundreds of pounds a week (rather than hundreds of thousands a week). I can't recall finding it any less exciting, so I don't buy into the PL having to have all these over paid foreigners (and English) in order for it to be the "best" league in the world. I think it quite clearly isn't the best at the moment, and what do these commentators who say it is the best actually mean? That there are 3 or 4 clubs that can flex so much financial muscle that no one else in the domestic league can compete, but that these clubs can clear up in the Champ League. Great! For excitement, I still think that the Championship beats the PL, as we all know that any team can and does beat any other, but of course one wants to be in the PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Wigan are gone now. Good riddance is all I can say. No. Great away day. Friendly people (chavs by the canal notwithstanding) and a decent club. Maybe a little above their natural level but I wouldn't begrudge their league position. Better those that are arrogant be gone over the smaller clubs that are generally grateful for their lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 (edited) No. Great away day. Friendly people (chavs by the canal notwithstanding) and a decent club. Maybe a little above their natural level but I wouldn't begrudge their league position. Better those that are arrogant be gone over the smaller clubs that are generally grateful for their lot. This. I'd love Wigan to stay up - just not at our expense! Great club, great chairman, great manager, wonderful (albeit not very numerous) fans and they play football properly. What's not to like? If Saints are out of danger, I really hope they leapfrog Newcastle or Sunderland. Edited 8 May, 2013 by SaintBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Duplicate, Ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilchards Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 This. I'd love Wigan to stay up - just not at our expense! Great club, great chairman, great manager, wonderful (albeit not very numerous) fans and they play football properly. What's not to like. If Saints are out of danger, I really hope they leapfrog Newcastle or Sunderland. Toons down please as I'm not keen on the French. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Toons down please as I'm not keen on the French. Agreed. That's my preference too. But, sadly, it does look like being Wigan. As long as it's not Saints, I'm happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 If you think we are safe on 39 points then you are mad ! Bless. So cute. You still think we need 41-43? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Sometimes in football you dont need to be rational. I think Wigan will beat Swansea. I think Arsenal will beat them & then they will beat Villa. We need to at least draw with Sunderland or I think we might go down. All that ******** about Champions League............... Have had a really bad feeling since WBA as we were so bad. Didnt go on Saturday, but hear we were a lot better. Simply put a win at the Mackems makes us safe IMHO. That said I am worried, very worried we will go down. Sorry Quoted for truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 If you think we are safe on 39 points then you are mad ! You do realise that we are safe on 39 points unless Wigan beat Arsenal on Tues 14th? i.e. to say Wigan will fail to beat Arsenal is mad. You'll find the odds on that game here: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-wigan/winner Look at all those utter loonies putting money on Arsenal to win or on the draw! What utter cretins! All you need to do is remortgage your house (and/or sell a load of possessions and/or take out a loan) and put £100,000 on Wigan to win and by midnight on Tuesday, you're certain to be a millionaire. What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Sanchez Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 I thought Wigan would of won and that would of change everything, thank christ it didn't, by default we are now in as safe a position as we have been all season. Thats not enough though relying on others, we need proper signings if we are to progress, not vanity purchases like Forren, Mayuka and Ramirez that stack up to nearly £20 Million of wasted money, what other business could you waste that sort of money Nicky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Sanchez Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 This. I'd love Wigan to stay up - just not at our expense! Great club, great chairman, great manager, wonderful (albeit not very numerous) fans and they play football properly. What's not to like? If Saints are out of danger, I really hope they leapfrog Newcastle or Sunderland. Rugby town. Plastic fans that have come from nowhere. tory chairman which does not represent the town itself at all. Bought their way out of the Leagues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Wigan? 10/1 to beat Arsenal? Not bad odds for a two horse race. I feel one last covering bet in my waters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilchards Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 There is no such thing as a dead cert win for any team, Arsenal could suffer a virus in the camp, have a **** ref, batter the Wigan goal but let them break up the other end to score? Does anyone ever remember Saints vs Rochdale a few years back? Little Rochdale vs Saints, a team that had won many home games against a team where you could not name one player, pah you even have a '76 cup match to prove it when Stokes scored. Southampton who? said one Utd player. Lets just win on Saturday please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 I am hoping that Wigan are the Jesus of the Premiership. They die so that others may live. (let's just hope the buggers aren't planning on resurrection). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musesaint Posted 8 May, 2013 Author Share Posted 8 May, 2013 I think we are safe now ...not mathematically, but from the point of likely results It would be nice, however, to do it ourselves and not to have to rely on others getting beaten . Time for our squad to show some balls ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surrey1saint Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 There is no such thing as a dead cert win for any team, Arsenal could suffer a virus in the camp, have a **** ref, batter the Wigan goal but let them break up the other end to score? Does anyone ever remember Saints vs Rochdale a few years back? Little Rochdale vs Saints, a team that had won many home games against a team where you could not name one player, pah you even have a '76 cup match to prove it when Stokes scored. Southampton who? said one Utd player. Lets just win on Saturday please. Playing on Sunday....but yes lets get 3 points1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Strover Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Thank goodness for the close season. Although I have many posters on 'ignore' it only works when you're logged-in which I don't do regularly, so from the end of this season to August I will hardly visit here which means the unSaints fans who post on here won't annoy me. I'll be in Canada just as pre-season and end of transfer window comes around so I'll miss the 'he's not good enough for us' and 'why didn't we sign on Colly Clobber that West Ham did? He's brilliant' constant drip-drip whinging. Bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professor Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Can't believe that Saints won't get at least one point out of the last two games and realistically we should expect a win and a draw if not two wins. If we don't get any more points it may well be that 39 points will be enough given our GD is better than the teams around us but you would have to ask is we deserved to stay up if we do stick on 39 points. That would mean that we lost the last 4 games of the season and only got 2 points from the final 6 games. Given how well the team appear to play that doesn't seem a likely outcome but it might show that however well we play, so do other teams in this league. To do better next year will need a stronger squad with a few more quality players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Saint Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 We are all but safe - although william hill still have us at 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tajjuk Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 I thought Wigan would of won and that would of change everything, thank christ it didn't, by default we are now in as safe a position as we have been all season. Thats not enough though relying on others, we need proper signings if we are to progress, not vanity purchases like Forren, Mayuka and Ramirez that stack up to nearly £20 Million of wasted money, what other business could you waste that sort of money Nicky? Ridiculous complete tosh as usual from you Barry, even if Wigan had won that we were at no point relying on others, last time I checked we were 14th and above Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland. Therefore they would have needed us to slip up to overhaul us. We also have the easiest fixtures of all the teams below us. Newly promoted team stays up and wins plaudits for it's style of play, plus it's looking likely we will be higher up than 17th. That is a successful season yet you still push this rubbish about transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musesaint Posted 8 May, 2013 Author Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Whatever the results this weekend I think it's highly likely that Wigan will be beaten by the Arse next week - which will mean we are safe "through the Arse" anyway - not a pleasant thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professor Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Ridiculous complete tosh as usual from you Barry, even if Wigan had won that we were at no point relying on others, last time I checked we were 14th and above Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland. Therefore they would have needed us to slip up to overhaul us. We also have the easiest fixtures of all the teams below us. Newly promoted team stays up and wins plaudits for it's style of play, plus it's looking likely we will be higher up than 17th. That is a successful season yet you still push this rubbish about transfers. Can't condone Barry Sanchez's use of the phrase 'would of' which is meaningless and should be 'would have', but otherwise what he said is most certainly not rubbish. It is fair opinion based on the last 4 results. Hopefully the next two results will restore the balance but even if they do, his comments are correct in pointing out some failings in the transfer policy. Our record signing should be a shoe-in but even before the red card, he has only been a squad player. Mayuka has been guilty of far too many6 errors to be a reliable first choice CB at this level and it seems from his being dropped, that MP might think so as well. As for Forren - who's Forren. And Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Can't condone Barry Sanchez's use of the phrase 'would of' which is meaningless and should be 'would have', but otherwise what he said is most certainly not rubbish. It is fair opinion based on the last 4 results. Hopefully the next two results will restore the balance but even if they do, his comments are correct in pointing out some failings in the transfer policy. Our record signing should be a shoe-in but even before the red card, he has only been a squad player. Mayuka has been guilty of far too many6 errors to be a reliable first choice CB at this level and it seems from his being dropped, that MP might think so as well. As for Forren - who's Forren. And Why? Mayuka = CB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Thank goodness for the close season. Although I have many posters on 'ignore' it only works when you're logged-in which I don't do regularly, so from the end of this season to August I will hardly visit here which means the unSaints fans who post on here won't annoy me. I'll be in Canada just as pre-season and end of transfer window comes around so I'll miss the 'he's not good enough for us' and 'why didn't we sign on Colly Clobber that West Ham did? He's brilliant' constant drip-drip whinging. Bliss. I ignored this post. What did it say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tajjuk Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Can't condone Barry Sanchez's use of the phrase 'would of' which is meaningless and should be 'would have', but otherwise what he said is most certainly not rubbish. It is fair opinion based on the last 4 results. Hopefully the next two results will restore the balance but even if they do, his comments are correct in pointing out some failings in the transfer policy. Our record signing should be a shoe-in but even before the red card, he has only been a squad player. Mayuka has been guilty of far too many6 errors to be a reliable first choice CB at this level and it seems from his being dropped, that MP might think so as well. As for Forren - who's Forren. And Why? Mayuka a CB? Do you mean Yoshida? Secondly we wouldn't have been relying on others to stay up as I pointed out we have 39 points with two games to play, Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland have 38 points with two games to play, regardless of what Wigan did or do we would have only got relegated if our results were worse than all 3 of those teams. Therefore it has always been 'in our hands'. Win two games and we would have guaranteed safety regardless of the Wigan result or any other result. Like I said Barry talks tripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldNick Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 I assume this morning all the anti MP and Adkin lovers who were coming out of the woodwork and making snipes of how wonderful the last regime was are snugly back in their holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintbob40 Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 So panic ,more or less, over. I wonder which of the board's posters we would like to have in the trenches next to us in a tight situation and which would need to be shot for cowardice and general soiling of undergarments in the face of enemy fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mowgli Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Still makes me smile that Saggy Chops told his QPR players to target 37 points for safety... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Still makes me smile that Saggy Chops told his QPR players to target 37 points for safety... It still might be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Wigan? 10/1 to beat Arsenal? Not bad odds for a two horse race. I feel one last covering bet in my waters... Personally don't think that's very good odds! Wigan are missing half their team, and Arsenal still need a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 99% safe now. Still hope we put in 2 good performances though. Can still see Newcastle losing at QPR. Would make it interesting, similar goal difference and a Wigan win potentially relegating Newcastle. Now, I'm not suggesting anything about our former managers, but could you see money changing paws in that scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monosaint Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 An interesting Stat. if Newcastle get relegated. All 3 teams going down will have ex-Saints Managers. Must be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
September Saint Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Now, I'm not suggesting anything about our former managers, but could you see money changing paws in that scenario? It makes you think. Stranger things have happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 It still might be enough. how? only 3 teams now have less than 38! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smirking_Saint Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Ridiculous complete tosh as usual from you Barry, even if Wigan had won that we were at no point relying on others, last time I checked we were 14th and above Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland. Therefore they would have needed us to slip up to overhaul us. We also have the easiest fixtures of all the teams below us. Newly promoted team stays up and wins plaudits for it's style of play, plus it's looking likely we will be higher up than 17th. That is a successful season yet you still push this rubbish about transfers. As much as I agree with you I really dont know why you bother argueing with Duney boy. He and Alps have long been the most succesful trolls on the forum. Did I really read someone call Maya a disaster signing aswell ? Still goes to show, I said all along that 39 points is safety, and I also said at the time that 5 points at this time of year is a massive task for a bottom 3 team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 I had a real bad feeling about the end of season and I'm glad to admit I was wrong. Cant see Wigan staying up now, they wont get anything at Arsenal defending like that. Sunderland's GD means they should be safe and I'm sure Newcastle will get at least a point at QPR. That leaves Norwich, who need a point from WBA and Man C, and then it's down to goal difference if Wigan beat Villa. Personally I want Wigan to stay up, in the Europa league they're going to struggle next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professor Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 If Wigan lose to Arsenal at the Emirates the excitement will all be over for us with a game to play, although it may not be over for Newcastle and Norwich depending on what they do this weekend. For us though, if it turns out that 39 points is enough, and even if we get to 40 or above, this has not proved to be the outcome we expected when those results came in against Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool. Then it was all about top half of the table and safety well before the end of the season. If you take those unexpected 9 points away the picture looks very different but in gaining them, the team hasn't then achieved the promise that seemed to offer. I just hope the club does not allow itself to bask in the sunshine of Premier League survival by kidding itself that all is well and that we will do better next season just by avoiding the poor start to the season. We do have a nucleus of good premier league players, some good young players coming through and a manager who is playing attractive passing football but scoring goals seems to be getting more difficult and we are lacking the exceptional flair from a world class player that can win a game with a moment of brilliance. Staying up is great but not something that lead to complacency and I feel confident that will be the message from the manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smirking_Saint Posted 8 May, 2013 Share Posted 8 May, 2013 Im pretty sure that the club isnt about to rest on its luarels, certainly not from what I have heard and also what I have read in the press. To say that Survival is anywhere near underachieving with a team that is pretty much a relic of League 1 and NPC football with a spattering of additions, in our first season is laughable. Yes we spent money, we had to, but IMO we have done well. Stick a solid defender next to Maya and itll be a lot more solid (jos isnt the answer) then some pace, a forward that can lead the line and some more depth centrally and we will be ok. 39 points had us safe weeks ago for all etc a mammoth bottom 6 upturn in form and our own capitulation. How anyone can think that anywhere between 17th and 11th is mot good enough is deluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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