Are We Safe?

[sfc4prem]

One point and we're safe, in my opinion.

[CB Fry]

I believe that those who thought 39 points was never going to be enough should get a big ****ing medal.

 

Well done to you guys, just make sure you have a house party setup to say 'I told you so' if we get relegated.

 

 

How's that ten quid you put on West Ham being relegated getting on?

 

For desperation to be "proved right" against someone on the internet you have never met, I think its you that you definitely deserve a big ******* medal.

[ludgershallsaint]

After today if Chelsea win against Spurs on Wednesday they'll have a weakened team out against Villa next weekend.

[Charlie Wayman]

Thought I'd pop on here today to see how the loyal, Wigan, Newcastle, Norwich, Aston Villa and Sunderland fans are getting on.

 

All's well I see.

 

I do often wonder how the passionate, LOYAL, Saints fans are getting on?

 

It's at times like these that every person involved with Southampton FC needs to stand together, be brave and see the job through - not fold like wet cardboard.

 

So what exactly are you proposing that fans do to help out materially, brick up our goal against Stoke?

 

I'm brave, very, very brave but how does that help Saints.

[Turkish]

Did you have difficulty with reading comprehension as a child?

 

You'd know a lot about this subject, what with having a 5 year olds grip on reality.

[Saint Without a Halo]

I remember you giving me a lot of grief for daring to suggest we wouldn't finish 10th.

 

so you didn't take into account that it was entirely possible for this midtable side to have a deep in form like other midtable sides do, you just assumed we'd continue to play really well week in week out, all of our players on top form and not suffer any injuries or losses of from and we wouldn't play as well as we did against Liverpool and Man City every week. Nice one.

 

For a bit of perspective it is interesting to note that even after yeaterdays results there is a considerably greater probability of finishing 10th than being relegated 6% to 1.3%! or 17 to 1 top ten to 75 to 1 relegation!

 

Also if we assume we will get no points next season whilst all others will get points we will be certain to be relegated whatever divsion we are in!

[Turkish]

For a bit of perspective it is interesting to note that even after yeaterdays results there is a considerably greater probability of finishing 10th than being relegated 6% to 1.3%! or 17 to 1 top ten to 75 to 1 relegation!

 

Also if we assume we will get no points next season whilst all others will get points we will be certain to be relegated whatever divsion we are in!

 

These percentage probabilities really are fascinating.

[Saintandy666]

The problem with these percentages(if I understand them correctly) is that they weight each outcome as equal when in reality some outcomes are more probable than others. For example, we are much more likely to lose to Tottenham than not to lose to them.

[musesaint]

The problem with these percentages(if I understand them correctly) is that they weight each outcome as equal when in reality some outcomes are more probable than others. For example, we are much more likely to lose to Tottenham than not to lose to them.

 

Exactly - the reality is teams fighting for their lives tend to pull off unexpected results (Wigan last year for example). We desparately need to up our game because neither Sunderland nor Stoke will do us any favours and, after our WBA performance and failure to see out the game yesterday (having played so well), both will see us a potential targets for points

 

I really don't think 39 will be enough this year. 40 probably will be - assuming we hold on to our better goal difference

[Saint Without a Halo]

These percentage probabilities really are fascinating.

 

So what are yours then?

[Saintandy666]

Exactly - the reality is teams fighting for their lives tend to pull off unexpected results (Wigan last year for example). We desparately need to up our game because neither Sunderland nor Stoke will do us any favours and, after our WBA performance and failure to see out the game yesterday (having played so well), both will see us a potential targets for points

 

I really don't think 39 will be enough this year. 40 probably will be - assuming we hold on to our better goal difference

 

Sometimes yes, but a lot of times no. In reality, I think most players and teams will really want to win regardless, because that is what they are driven by as professionals. Also, I think too much time is given to the fact that other teams will be pumped to win as if Southampton wouldn't be.

 

I think we are safe, because I really don't think all of the teams below us can overtake us, but 1 more win wouldn't go amiss to put it to rest.

[musesaint]

So what are yours then?

 

My percentage probability is that I will probably be sat at SMS shi*te*ing myself all the way up to the final whistle on 19/5/13

 

And my percentage certainty is that I will cry like a small slightly demented child if we slip through the backdoor into the Championship

[Saint Without a Halo]

Exactly - the reality is teams fighting for their lives tend to pull off unexpected results (Wigan last year for example). We desparately need to up our game because neither Sunderland nor Stoke will do us any favours and, after our WBA performance and failure to see out the game yesterday (having played so well), both will see us a potential targets for points

 

I really don't think 39 will be enough this year. 40 probably will be - assuming we hold on to our better goal difference

 

 

So then why are we assuming all other teams fighting for their lives can pull of unexpected results and we cant?

[NickG]

One thing is for certain - 39 points is not enough. The key match for me is Norwich v West Brom. If Norwich win that then we have to win one of the two remaining games. I fully expect Wigan, Newcastle, Sunderland to get at least 41. If we get 42 then we will be above at least one of them. We all know Wigan will survive - they are like a blood sucking vampire who refuses to die.....even when the stake is above the heart, the hammer is poised, and daylight is nearly upon us.

 

Sorry but you are wrong.

 

One thing you can say for "CERTAIN" is 39 MAY be enough.

 

It is far from a fact to say that 39 would see us relegated.

 

39 could, and I think probably will, be enough.

 

These results have us finishing in 15th...(39 points!)

 

Sunderland 4 - 0 Saints

Saints 0 - 4 Stoke

 

Wigan 0 - 0 Swansea

Arsenal 1 - 0 Wigan

Wigan 4 - 0 Villa

 

Norwich 0 - 0 WBA

Man C 1 - 0 Norwich

 

QPR 0 - 0 Newcastle

Newcastle 0 - 1 Arsenal

 

 

That will be enough if any of these teams' results happen, not all, just one!

 

I think at least one, if not more than one of Wigan, Newcastle or Norwich will fail to better those results meaning two 4-0 defeats would be plenty.

 

Safe before last game??

 

If we lose to Sunderland we are still safe before last game if Wigan don't get at least two points from Swansea and arsenal. (If Wigan lose home to Swansea can't see them staying up whatever happens in any other game this season)

 

If we draw with Sunderland we are safe before Stoke game if Wigan don't beat one out of Arsenal and Swansea.

 

 

 

Relax, if we get just one point from last two games (which would mean the last 6 games was worst period in whole season)

 

For us to go down we would need BOTH of Wigan and Aston Villa to take points in their games against Chelsea and Arsenal. One of them getting great result would still mean 1 point enough.

 

Reckon Fulham more likely to go down than us

[Turkish]

Can you update your form league table please.

[Turkish]

Sorry but you are wrong.

 

One thing you can say for "CERTAIN" is 39 MAY be enough.

 

It is far from a fact to say that 39 would see us relegated.

 

39 could, and I think probably will, be enough.

 

These results have us finishing in 15th...(39 points!)

 

Sunderland 4 - 0 Saints

Saints 0 - 4 Stoke

 

Wigan 0 - 0 Swansea

Arsenal 1 - 0 Wigan

Wigan 4 - 0 Villa

 

Norwich 0 - 0 WBA

Man C 1 - 0 Norwich

 

QPR 0 - 0 Newcastle

Newcastle 0 - 1 Arsenal

 

 

That will be enough if any of these teams' results happen, not all, just one!

 

I think at least one, if not more than one of Wigan, Newcastle or Norwich will fail to better those results meaning two 4-0 defeats would be plenty.

 

Safe before last game??

 

If we lose to Sunderland we are still safe before last game if Wigan don't get at least two points from Swansea and arsenal. (If Wigan lose home to Swansea can't see them staying up whatever happens in any other game this season)

 

If we draw with Sunderland we are safe before Stoke game if Wigan don't beat one out of Arsenal and Swansea.

 

 

 

Relax, if we get just one point from last two games (which would mean the last 6 games was worst period in whole season)

 

For us to go down we would need BOTH of Wigan and Aston Villa to take points in their games against Chelsea and Arsenal. One of them getting great result would still mean 1 point enough.

 

Reckon Fulham more likely to go down than us

 

You've come up with some incredibly weird invented results, form and statistics to prove your points but this really is something special.

[Batman]

lets be honest, we are just as likely to pick up at least 1 more point than most

we have been playing well in the last month or so. WBA aside

 

thought we played really well at WHL and done like many teams are, by Bale. That is no disgrace.

 

IF we play like that in the next two games, be amazed if we dont get at least 1 more point

then the others have to over take us

[aintforever]

I remember you giving me a lot of grief for daring to suggest we wouldn't finish 10th.

 

so you didn't take into account that it was entirely possible for this midtable side to have a deep in form like other midtable sides do, you just assumed we'd continue to play really well week in week out, all of our players on top form and not suffer any injuries or losses of from and we wouldn't play as well as we did against Liverpool and Man City every week. Nice one.

 

No, someone suggested 10th was a realistic target and you gave them grief. At the time a tenth place finish was a very realistic target, as it was up to a couple of weeks ago, there was only a few points in it.

[Dr Who?]

I love football. It is all a little bit random.

[Dr Who?]

After today if Chelsea win against Spurs on Wednesday they'll have a weakened team out against Villa next weekend.

 

Why will they? They still need another win to get 3rd spot!

[The9]

The problem with these percentages(if I understand them correctly) is that they weight each outcome as equal when in reality some outcomes are more probable than others. For example, we are much more likely to lose to Tottenham than not to lose to them.

 

Nope, there are two sets of outcomes on the http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html site, one for 50/50 results (which I never quote), and the other, weighted predictions based on form, opponents and previous results.

 

The latter says we are now 1.3% likely to go down. Wigan are at 48.5%. Norwich 28.1%, Newcastle 18.8%. Sunderland 7.2%.

 

If there's any flaw with the probability on that site, it's that it may underrate the degree to which lower sides beat mid-tablers at the end of the season, but that's included in the calculations to an extent from previous end of season data.

 

I notice also that Chelsea's result today has pushed Villa's likelihood of staying up out by 0.01%, this being because Villa have to play Chelsea who have improved their ranking by beating Man U and thus relatively reduced Villa's chances against them.

[Super_Saint]

All we need is for one of Newcastle, Norwich, or Wigan to draw their next game. I can't see Newcastle or Norwich picking up points after that, Wigan might against Villa, but it's not enough to leap ahead of us.

 

I'll start worrying if the three of them win next week and we don't. Until then I'm not worried.

[The9]

You've come up with some incredibly weird invented results, form and statistics to prove your points but this really is something special.

 

Seems a reasonable set of "results" to prove the point that 39 points may be enough, which was the point being argued. At least as rational as Duckhunter's "what if these 18 results go against us" flaps from the last couple of weeks.

[The9]

So then why are we assuming all other teams fighting for their lives can pull of unexpected results and we cant?

 

This is of course the crux of the panic.

[CB Fry]

No, someone suggested 10th was a realistic target and you gave them grief. At the time a tenth place finish was a very realistic target, as it was up to a couple of weeks ago, there was only a few points in it.

 

 

If there is one thing we have learnt from this forum this season it is the utter futile meaninglessness of the phrase "realistic target".

 

As the above gibberish demonstrates it means nothing apart from vague notion that we might win every game from now on, we probably won't and anyway I never said we would finish there and anyway finishing lower is fine and I never said it wasn't but anyone who says that target is a wrong is a wrist slitter even though I don't actually think we can actually achieve that target even though we might or not or something. And anyway, how was I supposed to know we would ever lose again after we'd won that game the other week after all I am not some kind of fortune teller. All it was just a realistic target or something and how dare you mock it when I don't even know or think we can hit it. Or not.

[stknowle]

If there is one thing we have learnt from this forum this season it is the utter futile meaninglessness of the phrase "realistic target".

 

As the above gibberish demonstrates it means nothing apart from vague notion that we might win every game from now on, we probably won't and anyway I never said we would finish there and anyway finishing lower is fine and I never said it wasn't but anyone who says that target is a wrong is a wrist slitter even though I don't actually think we can actually achieve that target even though we might or not or something. And anyway, how was I supposed to know we would ever lose again after we'd won that game the other week after all I am not some kind of fortune teller. All it was just a realistic target or something and how dare you mock it when I don't even know or think we can hit it. Or not.

 

Dannyfry

[Turkish]

Seems a reasonable set of "results" to prove the point that 39 points may be enough, which was the point being argued. At least as rational as Duckhunter's "what if these 18 results go against us" flaps from the last couple of weeks.

 

Do you honestly think its reasonable to think we'll lose both our remaining games 0-4_?

[The9]

Bloody statistics again. It was 100/1 last week and 40/1 this FFS, what price next week.

 

I can already hear you saying in two weeks time 'statistically, we stand very good chance of getting straight back up to the Prem'.

 

Well, next week the price will either be shorter, if we lose, or possibly odds won't be available, if we win, or probably longer if we draw.

 

Obviously the odds on relegation will shorten the nearer to the end of the season we get without actually being safe. That still doesn't mean we're in any more real danger than we were than last week.

 

In fact due to many of the teams around us drawing and not winning easier games than we had this weekend, even though we lost we're relatively better off because they've dropped points they were not expected to lose in many of the relegation permutations, and we've dropped points we WERE expected to lose.

 

For instance, the stats suggest we're more likely to end above Villa than them above us, because away to Sunderland and home to Stoke is easier than home to Chelsea and away to Wigan, even with them having a 1 point start.

[The9]

Do you honestly think its reasonable to think we'll lose both our remaining games 0-4_?

 

No, but he's just using that to illustrate that even if we get stuffed we can still be safe with just a couple of other results going our way to underpin the point that 39 could be enough.

[Tokyo-Saint]

Do you honestly think its reasonable to think we'll lose both our remaining games 0-4_?

 

Yes but we'll dominate both games and just not be able to find that cutting edge.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Seems a reasonable set of "results" to prove the point that 39 points may be enough, which was the point being argued. At least as rational as Duckhunter's "what if these 18 results go against us" flaps from the last couple of weeks.

 

You mean the "flap" where I predicted we'd lose to spurs,villa would beat Sunderland and Norwich ,and Wigan would beat wba, that " flap"? No, it can't be because wba are too good for Wigan, villa are dog shiete and I've more chance of seeing lord lucan giving Elvis a blow job than that happenening.

 

The 8 results I predicted were a bit more realistic than the ones you've just posted. Particularly when 50% have come in.

 

Please could you advise when im allowed to flap, is it Tuesday after Wigan beat Swansea.

[Turkish]

No, but he's just using that to illustrate that even if we get stuffed we can still be safe with just a couple of other results going our way to underpin the point that 39 could be enough.

 

Yeah great, lets all just make up results from 4 team to 'prove' 39 points will suffice.

 

Here we go

 

Sunderland 17 saints 11

Saints 6 stoke 9

 

Newcatle 19 QPR 74

Newcastle 12 Arsenal 13

 

Wigan 9 Swansea 5

Arsenal 18 Wigan 0

Wigan 7 Villa 7

 

Norwich 48 WBA 48

Man city 10 Norwich 9

 

Based on these results 39 points will be enough too.

[Matthew Le God]

Simple concepts still confusing Turkish.

[Turkish]

Simple concepts still alluding Turkish.

 

Grip on reality still alluding MR Wrong.

[Bearsy]

that norwich wba game sounds like a cracker tho. i might try get ticket

[kpturner]

You mean the "flap" where I predicted we'd lose to spurs,villa would beat Sunderland and Norwich ,and Wigan would beat wba, that " flap"? No, it can't be because wba are too good for Wigan, villa are dog shiete and I've more chance of seeing lord lucan giving Elvis a blow job than that happenening.

 

The 8 results I predicted were a bit more realistic than the ones you've just posted. Particularly when 50% have come in.

 

Please could you advise when im allowed to flap, is it Tuesday after Wigan beat Swansea.

 

Flap away if I makes you feel better. Personally I cannot see the point I crowing about your predictions of doom. Do you get some masochistic pleasure from it or is it just your way of coping?

[Jonnyboy]

Am I safe?

 

Yes. As f*ck.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Flap away if I makes you feel better. Personally I cannot see the point I crowing about your predictions of doom. Do you get some masochistic pleasure from it or is it just your way of coping?

 

I guess its just my way of proving that the people ridiculing us "flapers" were talking complete and utter pony.

[The9]

You mean the "flap" where I predicted we'd lose to spurs,villa would beat Sunderland and Norwich ,and Wigan would beat wba, that " flap"? No, it can't be because wba are too good for Wigan, villa are dog shiete and I've more chance of seeing lord lucan giving Elvis a blow job than that happenening.

 

The 8 results I predicted were a bit more realistic than the ones you've just posted. Particularly when 50% have come in.

 

Please could you advise when im allowed to flap, is it Tuesday after Wigan beat Swansea.

 

I haven't posted any results ? And... 50%, wow, great predictions. So... what you're saying is that in your scenario where basically all of the results had to go against us, half of them did. Forgive me for not having a breakdown.

[The9]

Simple concepts still confusing Turkish.

 

Yeah, I don't get how thick he comes across as sometimes either.

Edited 5 May, 2013 by The9

[The9]

Am I safe?

 

Yes. As f*ck.

 

I am also, safe as f'ck tonight, clart.

[The Kraken]

Yeah, I don't get how thick he is comes across as sometimes either.

 

Come again?

[Jonnyboy]

I am also, safe as f'ck tonight, clart.

 

come again?

[The9]

I guess its just my way of proving that the people ridiculing us "flapers" were talking complete and utter pony.

 

But you haven't.

[The9]

Come again?

 

Really shouldn't type on my phone.

[The9]

come again?

 

[NickG]

Seems a reasonable set of "results" to prove the point that 39 points may be enough, which was the point being argued. At least as rational as Duckhunter's "what if these 18 results go against us" flaps from the last couple of weeks.

 

Thank you.

 

For some reason Turkish thinks its fun to over run this forum with posts proving only he is both unpleasant and not very bright.

 

Of course, anyone with half a dozen brain cells (can see why Turkish didn't follow) can see it as a response to the post saying 39 is now certainly not enough - hence an extreme bad example of results for us, results for others that wouldn't shock any betting shop. Point proven.

 

Turkisk, if you are genuinely interested in how the form table works now (teams with two games repeating last couple of games form etc) then it still has us safe.

 

I suspect you were just being an immature attention seeking ***** though.

[Saintandy666]

Nope, there are two sets of outcomes on the http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html site, one for 50/50 results (which I never quote), and the other, weighted predictions based on form, opponents and previous results.

 

The latter says we are now 1.3% likely to go down. Wigan are at 48.5%. Norwich 28.1%, Newcastle 18.8%. Sunderland 7.2%.

 

If there's any flaw with the probability on that site, it's that it may underrate the degree to which lower sides beat mid-tablers at the end of the season, but that's included in the calculations to an extent from previous end of season data.

 

I notice also that Chelsea's result today has pushed Villa's likelihood of staying up out by 0.01%, this being because Villa have to play Chelsea who have improved their ranking by beating Man U and thus relatively reduced Villa's chances against them.

 

Okay, I did not know that and I guess the form addition adds a certain amount of validity to the percentages. Still, I think a weighting addition would also be useful.

[Lord Duckhunter]

I don't see how Chelsea winning is anything other than good news for villa. Who would they rather play a Chelsea needing points to qualify for champions league or a Chelsea already done so. Although I assume this wonderful % system will factor in benetiz resting players.

[Dalek2003]

I don't see how Chelsea winning is anything other than good news for villa. Who would they rather play a Chelsea needing points to qualify for champions league or a Chelsea already done so. Although I assume this wonderful % system will factor in benetiz resting players.

 

This is the problem at the end of the season. If you listen to Fergy, he more or less admitted that the Manure players where a little less likely to be incisive. Think about it, if your team has achieved its aims, ie winning the league or safety, why risk injury and a summer spent on the treatment table. This is what worries me when you look at the Swans v Wigan and the Baggies v Norwich. In another sense Frenchcastle playing a QPR side who have absolutely nothing left to play for.