Are We Safe?

[InvictaSaint]

If all results - ours and the teams around us - between now and the final week (week, not weekend - Arsenal v Wigan is in the final week, on the 14th May) go against us, assuming a reasonable level of goals scored and goals conceded, we would go into the last 7 days of the season (one game for all except Wigan, who have two) in 17th place, 1 point and several goals better off than Wigan.

 

However, bear in mind that the above includes: Villa beating Chelsea; Norwich beating WBA; Newcastle winning at QPR (they have not won in London all season); Sunderland winning against Stoke and us; Wigan beating Swansea; Stoke beating Spurs.

 

If you reverse each one of the results above (in the order shown, and with only that specific result being reversed), we would go into the last week:

 

- 17th (one point above Wigan)

- 16th (one point above both Wigan in 17th and Norwich in 18th, with a better goal difference than both - Norwich would then have to beat Man City away to go above us)

- 16th (one point above both Wigan in 17th and Newcastle in 18th with a better goal difference than both -Newcastle would have to beat Arsenal at home to go above us)

- 17th (one point above Wigan)

- 17th ( 4 points above Wigan with a better goal difference; Wigan would have to beat both Arsenal (away) and Villa (home)

- 17th (1 point above Wigan with a better goal difference)

 

A little crude and a little arbitrary, I know, and any combination of the above could of course happen - i.e. both Norwich and Newcastle losing for example - but it would seem to indicate that the Norwich v WBA and / or QPR v Newcastle games are key ones to watch IF the worst case scenario of us not getting another point at all were to come to pass.

 

All hypothetical of course, but I would say the odds are still firmly in our favour, and, most important, that our destiny - even assuming the very worst case imaginable - would still be in our hands going into the last week (assuming Arsenal beat Wigan of course....;-))

[croydonsaint]

Ok, we are back in it, but why are so many assuming all the teams around us will get points and we will get none. At the start of the season very few would have expected points v spurs away. Even so we played well and a draw would have been a fairer result. To lose the next two games would mean 4 losses on the trot. Now believe me I know we are southampton and never do things the easy way, but really, is that likely.Dont get me wrong, I am nervous, but lets have some faith. One or 2 points is very likely to be enough. C.O.Y.R!!!!

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I was worried a little while ago that the end of the season might turn out to be a depressingly drab and meaningless affair with nothing much left to play for.

 

So I suppose we should all thank the team for organising a slump at the perfect moment to lift that terrible prospect off our shoulders ...

[musesaint]

I am worried now that we will fail to get anything from the Sunderland game ...with Stoke having a style of play we find impossible to cope with the assumption "all we have to do is beat Stoke on the final day" is a big one IMHO

 

Result ...we could still go down

[Batman]

I am not worried until after the Wigan v Swansea game

 

if wigan win, then I will be worried

[David Strover]

Thought I'd pop on here today to see how the loyal, Wigan, Newcastle, Norwich, Aston Villa and Sunderland fans are getting on.

 

All's well I see.

 

I do often wonder how the passionate, LOYAL, Saints fans are getting on?

 

It's at times like these that every person involved with Southampton FC needs to stand together, be brave and see the job through - not fold like wet cardboard.

[Pilchards]

Of course it's in our own hands but for some supporters on here thinking that no teams will get a point or 3 away to Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal or Spurs because they are going for champions league places etc is deluded.

 

A team fighting for their lives often can come up trumps.

 

If we don't get the results needed then we deserve to go down.

[Pilchards]

Think we'll be fine but need a point final day. Ridiculous they've made it so tough for themselves. Probably lose to Sunderland then beat Stoke, but still an awful end to the season. Performances have been good mainly, but I don't think we'd have been lower under Adkins. Beating top sides gives more hope for the future, but messing up the 'easier' games won't get you anywhere. Just want the season over so they can have a proper go next time and we can properly see what MP can do.

 

Wonder if NC has even planned for relegation. Would MP stay? Would be embarrassing to come in to a club doing well under a popular manager and relegate them. Yet still most the first team would be in demand and leave. Really would be an absolute disaster, all that big talk then you lose Lallana, Lambert, Shaw, Schneiderlin. All those new contracts too.

 

No pressure then.

 

The frustrating thing is we know some big signings are lined up for us to have a good go in the premiership next season but we can't quite make ourselves safe.

 

So it's a great team next year or a shoddy one in the championship?

[Batman]

oddly, just had a look on a Nowrich, Newcastle and Sunderland site and none what so ever think we will go down

 

along with wigan, they think its all between them

[Saints foreva]

I am not worried until after the Wigan v Swansea game

 

if wigan win, then I will be worried

 

They'll win that as Swansea are without Michu and in holiday mode.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if WBA lose to Norwich either. Newcastle should beat QPR...

[Batman]

They'll win that as Swansea are without Michu and in holiday mode.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if WBA lose to Norwich either. Newcastle should beat QPR...

 

as we can see, no result is certain

[Forester]

Clearly all games are crucial, but I think there are two really big ones - yes its Wigan v Swansea (which I think they will get either 1 or 3 points). But the other key game for me is Villa v Chelsea next Saturday.

 

Reason being that if that one goes to Chelsea, who are clearly still going for Champions League, it means that one more point for Saints will almost certainly be enough. That Villa v Wigan game really helps us, and you would have to budget that Wigan would need to not only beat Swansea but ALSO Arsenal for a draw between Villa and Wigan to send us down.

 

So for me its one point needed unless Villa get something against Chelsea.

[Suomi Saint]

Clearly all games are crucial, but I think there are two really big ones - yes its Wigan v Swansea (which I think they will get either 1 or 3 points). But the other key game for me is Villa v Chelsea next Saturday.

 

Reason being that if that one goes to Chelsea, who are clearly still going for Champions League, it means that one more point for Saints will almost certainly be enough. That Villa v Wigan game really helps us, and you would have to budget that Wigan would need to not only beat Swansea but ALSO Arsenal for a draw between Villa and Wigan to send us down.

 

So for me its one point needed unless Villa get something against Chelsea.

 

Could be......but we have still got to get at least a point. If we lose at Sunderland, I certainly would not trust us to get it against the 'hoofers.'

[Dalek2003]

So, as I was saying 4 weeks ago. 1. We are far from safe. 2. 39 points will see us relegated.

I was lambasted at the time but the evidence on this board has vindicated my views.

[Dalek2003]

...barely needs mentioning but these scenarios of Wigan AND Villa going on miracle winning runs also requires various other teams overhauling our points and GD.

 

We're safe.

 

Are you ready to eat your words oh Great One ?

[musesaint]

I really wanted to be at SMS on the last day of the season with us safe - really pis~sed off it's gonna be yet another squeaky bum last day of the season in the Premier League

[ludgershallsaint]

So, as I was saying 4 weeks ago. 1. We are far from safe. 2. 39 points will see us relegated.

I was lambasted at the time but the evidence on this board has vindicated my views.

 

I can't agree that 39 points WILL see us relegated.

 

Why do you have such faith that all the other teams will get points and we'll get zero?

[S-Clarke]

We should be, but the next week will answer it all

 

Bizarre twists and results have dumped teams who ere safe...right back into it. If Wigan beat Swansea, Swansea are only 5 points from safety and they're 8th. It's absolutely insane. Teams like Fulham, who were 10/11 points clear a few months ago, could end up 2 points clear. It's more akin to the Championship.

 

Swansea will be the most supported club in the land on Tuesday night. If they can get a result, any sort of result at Wigan, then we'll all be breathing a huge sigh of relief. What with Wigan playing an FA Cup final and then away to Arsenal in a week or so, they need to win this. It's kind of their last chance saloon. Win or bust for them.

[Batman]

We should be, but the next week will answer it all

 

Bizarre twists and results have dumped teams who ere safe...right back into it. If Wigan beat Swansea, Swansea are only 5 points from safety and they're 8th. It's absolutely insane. Teams like Fulham, who were 10/11 points clear a few months ago, could end up 2 points clear. It's more akin to the Championship.

 

Swansea will be the most supported club in the land on Tuesday night. If they can get a result, any sort of result at Wigan, then we'll all be breathing a huge sigh of relief. What with Wigan playing an FA Cup final and then away to Arsenal in a week or so, they need to win this. It's kind of their last chance saloon. Win or bust for them.

wigan have now lost Bousejour with injury

its the fooker, macmanaman that keeps scoring

 

SURELY, swansea can get at least a point on tuesday

[S-Clarke]

wigan have now lost Bousejour with injury

its the fooker, macmanaman that keeps scoring

 

SURELY, swansea can get at least a point on tuesday

 

Alcaraz and Figaroura are also missing for them.

Edited 5 May, 2013 by S-Clarke

[ollysaints1]

To be honest, what worries me most is that Wigan, Norwich and Newcastle all play teams with nothing to play for in their next games.

[S-Clarke]

To be honest, what worries me most is that Wigan, Norwich and Newcastle all play teams with nothing to play for in their next games.

 

Doesn't always pan out like that. QPR won't want to go down with a wimper, although they are pretty horrific so I do expect Newcastle to beat them. I can't see WBA losing 4 on the trot, they're a good outfit and will probably hold Norwich. I don't rate them at all for what it's worth, bog standard average side. Not much quality in there at all, could be in real trouble.

 

A game against 2 teams both needing something often suits us better. For a start, the games will be open and attacking. Sunderland's back 4 is slow, leggy and struggles to cope with direct running and pace. If we can expose that and Jay can have a decent game, then we'll win comfortably.

[aintforever]

We are definitely right back in the mix now, I'm pretty sure Wigan will beat Swansea on Tuesday.

[Turkish]

We are definitely right back in the mix now, I'm pretty sure Wigan will beat Swansea on Tuesday.

 

I thought you said we were finishing 10th?

[spyinthesky]

So, as I was saying 4 weeks ago. 1. We are far from safe. 2. 39 points will see us relegated.

I was lambasted at the time but the evidence on this board has vindicated my views.

 

I wish I wasn't a card carrying pessimist but it is a burden I have faced all my life

 

I did a predictor after the West Ham game and had us a point from safety so thought the margin of error was tight enough to risk a gamble when the odds were 150/1 against

 

I have now nearly £8k awaiting me if Saints go down, a bet I sincerely hope I don't benefit from

[trousers]

So, as I was saying 4 weeks ago. 1. We are far from safe. 2. 39 points will see us relegated.

I was lambasted at the time but the evidence on this board has vindicated my views.

 

I think your ability to predict the future should be applauded.

[aintforever]

I thought you said we were finishing 10th?

 

Na, I said it was a realistic target. And it was before we started playing utter garbage.

[Super_Saint]

To be honest, what worries me most is that Wigan, Norwich and Newcastle all play teams with nothing to play for in their next games.

 

Fulham, who still aren't safe had Reading put 4 past them at home yesterday. The same could be said when we played West Brom or Swansea, they still took points off us. Anyway, going by that logic then we should beat Stoke the last day of the season, who more than likely will have nothing to play for.

 

So, as I was saying 4 weeks ago. 1. We are far from safe. 2. 39 points will see us relegated.

I was lambasted at the time but the evidence on this board has vindicated my views.

 

So you see a possibility of us picking up no points at all, whilst the four below us are absolutely certain to pick up points. How does that work?

 

It's certainly feasible that either Norwich or Newcastle will pick up 1 point from their remaining two games, keeping us up of goal difference.

[rick1976.4.38]

Na, I said it was a realistic target. And it was before we started playing utter garbage.

 

in what way are we playing utter garbage?

we lost to wba but apart from that have been playing well

def deserved a point at least from yesterday

[Lord Duckhunter]

Last week I posted 8 results that were extremely reasonable and sensible, 8 results that would lead to us going into the last day one point out of the relegation places and one point above Wigan.

 

I was told that this didn't happen in football, that these results, although reasonable, together were less likely than me being run over by a bus driven by Elvis. I needed to "get a grip" and stop wetting my knickers. We were safe as Carol Vorderman had worked out that we had a 1% chance of going down . The resident Lawro's told us that Wigan had 2 points from 4 games , so no way they would get 6 from the next 3. West Brom were so good against us, that they would beat Wigan and then beat Norwich .

 

So far half the results have come in, the remainder are

 

Newcastle to beat QPR

Wigan to beat Swansea

Norwich to beat WBA

and us to lose at Sunderland.

 

That will take it to the last day. The problem with the last day is we've thrown in the occasional shocking performance QPR, West Brom, we could get a dodgy reffing decision early on, or Stoke could need something themselves.

 

We needed 3 points from West Ham, Swansea, West Brom and Spurs to be pretty confident that Villa and Wigan would both be below us last day. We only got 2 and now Villa can lose to Wigan and they can both end up above us. Some of us posted last week that anyone who thought we were safe was deluded, they are doubly so after yesterday.

[Dalek2003]

Last week I posted 8 results that were extremely reasonable and sensible, 8 results that would lead to us going into the last day one point out of the relegation places and one point above Wigan.

 

I was told that this didn't happen in football, that these results, although reasonable, together were less likely than me being run over by a bus driven by Elvis. I needed to "get a grip" and stop wetting my knickers. We were safe as Carol Vorderman had worked out that we had a 1% chance of going down . The resident Lawro's told us that Wigan had 2 points from 4 games , so no way they would get 6 from the next 3. West Brom were so good against us, that they would beat Wigan and then beat Norwich .

 

So far half the results have come in, the remainder are

 

Newcastle to beat QPR

Wigan to beat Swansea

Norwich to beat WBA

and us to lose at Sunderland.

 

That will take it to the last day. The problem with the last day is we've thrown in the occasional shocking performance QPR, West Brom, we could get a dodgy reffing decision early on, or Stoke could need something themselves.

 

We needed 3 points from West Ham, Swansea, West Brom and Spurs to be pretty confident that Villa and Wigan would both be below us last day. We only got 2 and now Villa can lose to Wigan and they can both end up above us. Some of us posted last week that anyone who thought we were safe was deluded, they are doubly so after yesterday.

 

Well done but I came to the same conclusion way before this and have been virtually hounded off the site. Similar to the 2004 debacle in may ways.

[iansums]

I've been with you on this LD, I take no pleasure in it I can assure you. At this stage of the season all results are possible.

 

I hope you managed to keep well clear of that bus!

[Lord Duckhunter]

Well done but I came to the same conclusion way before this and have been virtually hounded off the site. Similar to the 2004 debacle in may ways.

 

I'm worried about it, you seem to be enjoying it.

[aintforever]

in what way are we playing utter garbage?

we lost to wba but apart from that have been playing well

def deserved a point at least from yesterday

 

We havn't been that bad but 1 point from West Ham and West Brom at home is not great, and why we are still in trouble.

[Matthew Le God]

I came to the same conclusion way before this and have been virtually hounded off the site.

 

You continue to contradict yourself, you told me it is impossible to predict the outcome of games and then at the same time continue to say we'll get relegated on X points. You can't back up such claims without looking at what results would be needed for Saints to go down on 39, 40, 41, 42, 43 or 45 points. We are at 40/1 to go down for a reason, that reason is that the results required are very unlikely to happen given the respective fixture lists and some teams playing Champions League teams and also each other, both teams can't win a game so points will be dropped.

[trousers]

Well done but I came to the same conclusion way before this and have been virtually hounded off the site. Similar to the 2004 debacle in may ways.

 

I was going to have a BBQ next Sunday but I'm not going to bother now because there's a 20% chance it might rain. Best to be pessimistic I reckon.

[NewYorkSaint]

According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

...we are 7 x more likely to finish in top 10 then we are to being relegated. Even if we lose both games, there is only 10% chance we get relegated.

Yes, it might conceivably happen. But overall chance is calculated here at 1.3% = 70 to 1. (Those 40 to 1 bookie odds are a rip-off!).

It's natural to be nervous, but personally, I'll go with the numbers. We'll be fine. And a single point turns it into a 99% certainty.

[Pilchards]

I believe that those who thought 39 points was never going to be enough should get a big ****ing medal.

 

Well done to you guys, just make sure you have a house party setup to say 'I told you so' if we get relegated.

[Turkish]

Na, I said it was a realistic target. And it was before we started playing utter garbage.

 

I remember you giving me a lot of grief for daring to suggest we wouldn't finish 10th.

 

so you didn't take into account that it was entirely possible for this midtable side to have a deep in form like other midtable sides do, you just assumed we'd continue to play really well week in week out, all of our players on top form and not suffer any injuries or losses of from and we wouldn't play as well as we did against Liverpool and Man City every week. Nice one.

Edited 5 May, 2013 by Turkish

[rick1976.4.38]

We havn't been that bad but 1 point from West Ham and West Brom at home is not great, and why we are still in trouble.

I disagree with the utter garbage comment,totaly agree we are still in trouble but do feel we will be ok.

ive always said it would be sunderland away that decides our fate and it looks like this may be the case

[trousers]

Right so you didn't take into account that it was entirely possible for this midtable side to have a deep in form like other midtable sides do, you just assumed we'd continue to play really well week in week out, all of our players on top form and not suffer any injuries or losses of from and we wouldn't play as well as we did against Liverpool and Man City every week. Nice one.

 

[Matthew Le God]

Right so you didn't take into account that it was entirely possible for this midtable side to have a deep in form like other midtable sides do, you just assumed we'd continue to play really well week in week out, all of our players on top form and not suffer any injuries or losses of from and we wouldn't play as well as we did against Liverpool and Man City every week. Nice one.

 

That doesn't make it unrealistic. Even with 3 poor results in a row we are still only 4 points away from 10th. We probably won't finish in the top 10 now, but it wasn't unreasonable to think it was "realistic" until relatively recently. The league table is extremely close.

[Turkish]

That doesn't make it unrealistic. Even with 3 poor results in a row we are still only 4 points away from 10th. We probably won't finish in the top 10 now, but it wasn't unreasonable to think it was "realistic" until relatively recently. The league table is extremely close.

 

Good to see that you accept that I was right and you were wrong, yet again.

[Matthew Le God]

Good to see that you accept that I was right and you were wrong, yet again.

 

Did you have difficulty with reading comprehension as a child?

[badgerx16]

oddly, just had a look on a Nowrich, Newcastle and Sunderland site and none what so ever think we will go down

 

along with wigan, they think its all between them

 

But do they have a pet Dalek ?

Edited 5 May, 2013 by badgerx16

[iansums]

You continue to contradict yourself, you told me it is impossible to predict the outcome of games and then at the same time continue to say we'll get relegated on X points. You can't back up such claims without looking at what results would be needed for Saints to go down on 39, 40, 41, 42, 43 or 45 points. We are at 40/1 to go down for a reason, that reason is that the results required are very unlikely to happen given the respective fixture lists and some teams playing Champions League teams and also each other, both teams can't win a game so points will be dropped.

 

Bloody statistics again. It was 100/1 last week and 40/1 this FFS, what price next week.

 

I can already hear you saying in two weeks time 'statistically, we stand very good chance of getting straight back up to the Prem'.

[supersonic]

Just done the predictor thing on the BBC and we went down. Awkward. The stoke game worries me, it really does

[Wade Garrett]

I still reckon we're safe on 39.

[Batman]

next weekend is just so huge.

Massive pressure on everyone

[LGTL]

We can all stop worrying if we get a result at Sunderland next week. It's a game of mammoth proportions, and anyone who can should get a ticket and get the hell up there. They need the support we gave them yesterday.