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Are We Safe?


musesaint

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Yes. Probably slightly safer than at 3pm.

 

Even if we lose all our remaining games, it's very, very unlikely that we'd go down.

 

We're more likely to be kicked out of the league for some irregularity or go bankrupt before the Summer than we are to finish in the bottom 3. If you're worried about our immediate future, it's more rational to worry about the first two issues than the chances of being relegated tbh.

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Hmm not quite so sure. A lot of things have to happen still for us to go down, but today's performance worries me. Especially as we don't have a left back for next week, cork injured (?), no Ramirez (ok I guess that's not that important) and Jos constantly playing instead of fonte

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It all depends on Wigan, it has been a funny season so I wouldn't be surprised if we end up sh!tting it on the last day again. Can't see us getting anything from Spurs or Sunderland.

 

Ahhh hello dumbass. I thought you said we were finishing tenth?

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Who knows what random number of games it'll be this week.

 

 

 

"if you ignore the last three games, and the QPR game, and of course the first eleven games of the season, we've been as good as Liverpool this season"

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For us to be relegated, you basically need the following to happen:

 

Saints to get zero points from 3 games AND

Wigan to get 8+ points from 4 games AND

Villa to get 6+ points from 4 games AND

Newcastle to get 3+ points from 3 games AND

Norwich to get 2+ points from 3 games

 

The chance of all these things happening is as close to 0% as makes no difference.

 

If we decide to not just lose all remaining games, but to lose them all by 3 or 4 goals, it gets a bit tighter. But not much.

 

Bewilderingly, we're still only 3 points away from 9th place.

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So its not a realistic target after all, then? If you don't think we'll get anything from Sunderland and Spurs?

 

I'm not right all the time. I don't think we will get more than 1 point from those two, but it wouldn't be a complete surprise if we get 4. We have been very erratic under Poch.

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I'm not right all the time. I don't think we will get more than 1 point from those two, but it wouldn't be a complete surprise if we get 4. We have been very erratic under Poch.

 

An early contender for the Saintsweb award for understatement of the year.

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For us to be relegated, you basically need the following to happen:

 

Saints to get zero points from 3 games AND

Wigan to get 8+ points from 4 games AND

Villa to get 6+ points from 4 games AND

Newcastle to get 3+ points from 3 games AND

Norwich to get 2+ points from 3 games

 

The chance of all these things happening is as close to 0% as makes no difference.

 

If we decide to not just lose all remaining games, but to lose them all by 3 or 4 goals, it gets a bit tighter. But not much.

 

Bewilderingly, we're still only 3 points away from 9th place.

 

 

It could get quite close if Villa and Wigan both have a couple of wins.

 

The fact they play each other on the last day means we should be ok, even if we decide to lose the next 3.

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At the end of the day we are all Saints fans and we know that the toast invariably lands butter side down, but until the fat lady no longer has a ticket for Southampton as Greavsie always said its a funny old game.

 

Some are Saimts fans with the knowledge of history to know and respect football and see where we are actually at! We are far from European candidates and so far from the Champions League it takes the **** yet our new plastics think we can actually do it, dont people think clubs of a significant size think the same?

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I wonder what some of our fans would do if they supported this lot, ( in the Evo-Stik Southern Central Division ) :

Woodford United

Played 42

Won 0

Drawn 0

Lost 42

For 21

Against 185

 

And in response to the OP, currently not ( mathematically ), but realistically, probably yes.

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It could get quite close if Villa and Wigan both have a couple of wins.

 

The fact they play each other on the last day means we should be ok, even if we decide to lose the next 3.

 

Sure, it might be close. But that's a rather different thing.

 

I'd still say it's about 95% certain that we go into the Stoke game effectively guaranteed to stay up (e.g. as long as we don't lose 10-0 or something mental).

 

The final table might still look close though. I think back in the early 90s we were 7 points clear with two games to go and ended up just 1 point clear of the relegation zone. Anyway, the final table looked tight but in reality, we'd been safe for a while. Might happen again...

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No way.

 

Don't think we'll get another point this season, got 2 tough away games at Spurs and Sunderland and then a tough home game against Stoke.

 

I still expect us to be relegated, I knew the great form we've produced in the last 6 weeks or so couldn't be sustained and the downward spiral would begin, the loss to WBA is just the beginning of the downward spiral towards relegation in my opinion.

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No way.

 

Don't think we'll get another point this season, got 2 tough away games at Spurs and Sunderland and then a tough home game against Stoke.

 

I still expect us to be relegated, I knew the great form we've produced in the last 6 weeks or so couldn't be sustained and the downward spiral would begin, the loss to WBA is just the beginning of the downward spiral towards relegation in my opinion.

 

Saying the same things, over and over again, every single week, doesn't mean it's more likely to happen.

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No way.

 

Don't think we'll get another point this season, got 2 tough away games at Spurs and Sunderland and then a tough home game against Stoke.

 

I still expect us to be relegated, I knew the great form we've produced in the last 6 weeks or so couldn't be sustained and the downward spiral would begin, the loss to WBA is just the beginning of the downward spiral towards relegation in my opinion.

 

Even if we lose all 3, which we wont, we will still stay up.

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If you look the remaining fixtures then Villa look to have a tough run in because they play teams who are still battling at either end of the table. I would say that if they lose to Sunderland tomorrow our odds improve dramatically as they play Wigan on the final day. Even if we lose our last 3 games our chances are still good.

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Im looking forward to Nick Gs updated 'where will finish based on current form' table.

 

Sunderland 43

Saints 41

Norwich 41

Fulham 40

Newcastle 38

Villa38

Wigan 34

QPR 25

Reading 25

 

Just for you.

 

 

To answer OP yes we are safe.

 

To go down (without another point) we would need to go into last game with either ;

 

Both Wigan and Villa on 39 or more and then draw.

 

Or

 

One of them on 40+ other 37+ and team on 37+ wins.

 

 

 

O

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Yes, just, because Wigan or Villa will take that last relegation spot. For Saints, 16th is probably the lowest we'll finish with the points tally we have currently, but while the last 3 games suddenly look tough, I can see a point or three in there. 14th or higher would be OK, but it does look like we've blown a top half finish, unless we find that form that saw us beat Liverpool and Chelsea recently.

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Sunderland 43

Saints 41

Norwich 41

Fulham 40

Newcastle 38

Villa38

Wigan 34

QPR 25

Reading 25

 

Just for you.

 

 

To answer OP yes we are safe.

 

To go down (without another point) we would need to go into last game with either ;

 

Both Wigan and Villa on 39 or more and then draw.

 

Or

 

One of them on 40+ other 37+ and team on 37+ wins.

 

 

 

O

 

It looks like its a good job we're settling for 12th!

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No way.

 

Don't think we'll get another point this season, got 2 tough away games at Spurs and Sunderland and then a tough home game against Stoke.

 

I still expect us to be relegated, I knew the great form we've produced in the last 6 weeks or so couldn't be sustained and the downward spiral would begin, the loss to WBA is just the beginning of the downward spiral towards relegation in my opinion.

 

Yep. I've been saying we'd go down ever since MP arrived. I don't think we'll pick up any more points this season.

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To answer OP yes we are safe.

 

To go down (without another point) we would need to go into last game with either ;

 

Both Wigan and Villa on 39 or more and then draw.

 

Or

 

One of them on 40+ other 37+ and team on 37+ wins.

 

 

 

O

 

 

...barely needs mentioning but these scenarios of Wigan AND Villa going on miracle winning runs also requires various other teams overhauling our points and GD.

 

We're safe.

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Just to help to try overcome my usual pessimism I've had a go at the predictor thingy. My normal sense of doom and gloom predicts no points from the next 2 away games while Wigan and Villa pick up points.

 

On a fraught last day I have Wigan and Villa sharing points while Saints battle out a 0-0 draw with Stoke. The tension is unbearable but Saints survive on goal difference with 40 points while Villa look to a future in the league below.

 

Admittedly the odds are with Saints but I'll not be assuming that we're safe until the arithmetic confirms it.

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