Villa or Wigan

[Saint Bones]

Would like to see Villa go down but think it will be Wigan.

 

Just hope we can pick up a win this weekend and pretty much put us well and truly clear of the relegation pack. - Feeling confident we are fine but like the post above have been following Saints too long to expect everything to be smooth sailing

[saints-cris]

Hope and think Wigan will go down. As nice football as they play, its not really helping them as they're always in the bottom 5. think it's time for them to dissapear back to league 1 where they belong.

[krissyboy31]

Not sure about Villa if they stay up.

 

The dross coming up from the Championship will help.

 

I bet that's what they were saying last season too and not just talking about Reading.

[krissyboy31]

Can see us getting dragged back into the mire in the upcoming weeks.

 

Makes me cringe to see everyone saying 'we're safe' until we're mathematically safe I won't be opening the Champagne bottle.

 

I know what Saints are like, and it would be very Saints-like for us to lose our next 3 games and have to beat Stoke on the final day to stay up in my opinion.

 

Neither Villa nor Wigan are going to get 39 points.

[Deano6]

Last week Sunderland were certain for the drop. Then they win and now it's Stoke. If they win this week it will be Norwich. Football fans are a fickle lot.

 

So we are all certain Stoke aren't going down now. Wonder who it will be next week.

[brett24]

Neither Villa nor Wigan are going to get 39 points.

 

I don't agree, I think we will need at least 42 to stay up, Wigan will beat West Brom, Swansea and Vill giving them 40 points, they might even beat Spurs as that is exactly the sort of games Spurs will lose. I think Villa may get something at Utd tonight then I can see them beating Sunderland and Norwich giving them 40 also, even if they lose tonight. We need one more win or two draws to be safe. Hope it's against West Brom this week.

[The9]

Makes me cringe to see everyone saying 'we're safe' until we're mathematically safe I won't be opening the Champagne bottle.

 

I know what Saints are like, and it would be very Saints-like for us to lose our next 3 games and have to beat Stoke on the final day to stay up in my opinion.

 

I'm off to the probability site again to illustrate how unlikely this is after the weekend's games... but in case you missed the other 5 times I posted it, even if we'd lost at Swansea and then all of our remaining games we'd still only be 14% likely to be relegated. There is basically only one place left to play for and the two main contenders for that are still 8 and 5 points behind us, with them having 5 matches to play.

[Window Cleaner]

Neither Villa nor Wigan are going to get 39 points.

 

to be above us they'll need 40 anyway and as far as Norwich,Stoke,Newcastle and Sunderland are concerned I don't give a rat's arse..

[S-Clarke]

Can see us getting dragged back into the mire in the upcoming weeks.

 

Makes me cringe to see everyone saying 'we're safe' until we're mathematically safe I won't be opening the Champagne bottle.

 

I know what Saints are like, and it would be very Saints-like for us to lose our next 3 games and have to beat Stoke on the final day to stay up in my opinion.

 

Seriously fella, drop the act. It's becoming boring.

 

We're safe, we're not going to get relegated. We can lose all of our remaining games and still stay up.

[saints-cris]

to be above us they'll need 40 anyway and as far as Norwich,Stoke,Newcastle and Sunderland are concerned I don't give a rat's arse..

 

Wigan need to get 9 more points than us. With 5 games to go. They need to win 3 and us to lose 3. It seems pretty likely at this point that we are safe. They still have Arsenal and Spurs.

 

Think this is Wigan's season to go down, and they certainly aren't catching us!

[The9]

Ok, here's the latest. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

 

We are currently 0.1% likely to be relegated. (Was 0.2% before the weekend)

If we lose the remaining 4 matches, we are only 2.8% likely to be relegated. (Was 14% before the weekend if we lost all matches)

If we pick up 1 point from the last 4 games, we are 0.5% likely to be relegated.

The current likelihood of one of Villa (28.5%) or Wigan (64.8%) going down is a combined 93.3%.

 

For completion, the likelihood of Reading and QPR being relegated is now 99.9986% and 99.9974% respectively. We are nearly as likely to stay up as they are to go down.

 

Our likelihood of finishing in each postion from 7th-18th is as follows. We can't finish outside this range. (%)

0 2 6 12 18 17 16 13 9 5 1 0

[The9]

Oh, and from those stats we can use science to indicate that we are 648 times less likely to get relegated than Wigan and 285 less likely to go down than Villa.

 

Villa losing tonight moves them to 33% likely with Wigan at 61.4%.

A draw would be 22.7% and 69.2% respectively

Villa winning puts them at 8.8% and Wigan at 79%. But then Villa winning tonight is pretty bloody unlikely to begin with.

 

However, the result has so little impact on our chances of going down, we're not even listed on the affected teams.

[Wurzel]

Didn't realise they play each other on last day. Think Villa should stay up but if they haven't secured safety before the last day can see Wigan holding their nerve (been there done that) in a one off game and sending them down.

[BlakeySFC]

Seriously fella, drop the act. It's becoming boring.

 

We're safe, we're not going to get relegated. We can lose all of our remaining games and still stay up.

 

Sorry, I don't mean to annoy or berate anyone or sound like a broken record.

 

I'm just still going to be on edge until/if we are mathematically safe is all, if/when we pass that threshold I'll be as happy and cheery as the rest of you, until then I'm going to assume there's going to be some calamity that brings us down back towards the relegation zone from now until the end of the season because that's just Saints all over.

[daveygwyatt]

Newcastle are by no means safe. Westham and qpr away. Liverpool and arsenal at home. Can see them losing 3 and drawing 1 to end on 38 points

[Lighthouse]

I don't agree, I think we will need at least 42 to stay up, Wigan will beat West Brom, Swansea and Villa.

 

That is based on nothing more than paranoia. It might happen but it would take a huge turn around in form and there is little quality in their side.

 

Their only away win in 4 months was at Reading, so to expect a win at West Brom and Spuds takes a healthy imagination. Swansea at home is a possible win but Villa have been playing better recently and will be battling for their lives on the last day.

[Cabrone]

Villa and Wigan will go down to the last game and Villa will go down on goal difference.

 

Don't really see any other team getting sucked in.

[The9]

Didn't realise they play each other on last day. Think Villa should stay up but if they haven't secured safety before the last day can see Wigan holding their nerve (been there done that) in a one off game and sending them down.

 

I'm pretty sure that if it goes to the last day with Wigan and Villa the only two in contention to go down Wigan will cruise to a win too.

 

Amusing quirk of statistics, Wigan are twice as likely to come 12th as they are 20th.

[The9]

That is based on nothing more than paranoia. It might happen but it would take a huge turn around in form and there is little quality in their side.

 

Their only away win in 4 months was at Reading, so to expect a win at West Brom and Spuds takes a healthy imagination. Swansea at home is a possible win but Villa have been playing better recently and will be battling for their lives on the last day.

 

Even if Wigan win 3 matches there are still 5 other sides below us, all of whom need to get better results than us over the last 4 games, many of which they are playing against each other.

[saints-cris]

Sorry, I don't mean to annoy or berate anyone or sound like a broken record.

 

I'm just still going to be on edge until/if we are mathematically safe is all, if/when we pass that threshold I'll be as happy and cheery as the rest of you, until then I'm going to assume there's going to be some calamity that brings us down back towards the relegation zone from now until the end of the season because that's just Saints all over.

 

Time to let go of the old Saints paranoia, we're not like that anymore

 

We'll be fine, Wigan simply will not catch us. We are safe.

[The9]

Newcastle are by no means safe. Westham and qpr away. Liverpool and arsenal at home. Can see them losing 3 and drawing 1 to end on 38 points

 

And if they do that they'll only have an 11% chance of relegation.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Newcastle.html

[The9]

Time to let go of the old Saints paranoia, we're not like that anymore

 

We'll be fine, Wigan simply will not catch us. We are safe.

 

It's not even about just that, it's about Wigan AND Villa AND Newcastle AND Norwich AND Sunderland AND Stoke catching us, and us not getting more than West Ham, Fulham and Swansea who are also within 3 points of us.

[saints-cris]

It's not even about just that, it's about Wigan AND Villa AND Newcastle AND Norwich AND Sunderland AND Stoke catching us, and us not getting more than West Ham, Fulham and Swansea who are also within 3 points of us.

 

Exactly. Are all of those teams going to catch us..? Not a chance!

 

Enjoy the last few games relatively stress free!

[Sour Mash]

Time to let go of the old Saints paranoia, we're not like that anymore

 

We'll be fine, Wigan simply will not catch us. We are safe.

When have we ever been "like that"?

[The9]

Exactly. Are all of those teams going to catch us..? Not a chance!

 

Enjoy the last few games relatively stress free!

 

Actually a 0.0763% chance.

[UpweySaint]

Genuine tip for those still concerned we'l go down, stick a pound or two on it with any bookie that'l give you odds! The odds will be v long if even on show and, if you'r proved correct, your pessimism will be rewarded!

[The9]

Genuine tip for those still concerned we'l go down, stick a pound or two on it with any bookie that'l give you odds! The odds will be v long if even on show and, if you'r proved correct, your pessimism will be rewarded!

 

150/1 with bwin, shortest odds where some are offered are 69/1 on Betdaq.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

 

In that situation I'd be more inclined to take the 300/1 on Fulham to go down with a point more than us at the moment.

 

You can get 14/1 on Villa to win at Old Trafford tonight btw, which is much longer than the improvement in their position relative to relegation if they do win, (i.e. reflects the actual likelihood of a Villa win) on sportsclubstats.com.

[The9]

When have we ever been "like that"?

 

2004/5 springs to mind. But that supports the point. We may have chucked games away occasionally in the Prem in the past, but only one time in the last 28 seasons at the top level have we done it regularly enough to relegate us.

[wightman35]

They are here on merit. Dont like this "belong" thing, kind of suggests a clubs history etc illustrates where they should be in the league, its that kind of thinking that keeps liverpool fans in delusional bubbles and I hope our fans can avoid such things especially considering our recent touch with near extinction!

This is absolutely right. Older fans will remember all those years after ww2 when we were in the old 2nd 0r 3rd divisions before Ted Bates built the team that took us into the top flight too. I will be much happier when we are Mathematically safe from relegation and would prefer Stoke rather than AV or Wigan to drop; even though that is unlikely.

[UpweySaint]

150/1 with bwin, shortest odds where some are offered are 69/1 on Betdaq.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

 

In that situation I'd be more inclined to take the 300/1 on Fulham to go down with a point more than us at the moment.

 

You can get 14/1 on Villa to win at Old Trafford tonight btw, which is much longer than the improvement in their position relative to relegation if they do win, (i.e. reflects the actual likelihood of a Villa win) on sportsclubstats.com.

 

Not a bad return on either, well worth a couple of quid for the pessimists out there! Money where your mouth is lads

[Smirking_Saint]

Have said all season that Villa will go down, I have no doubt that they have the makings of a decent side there, but for me, youth is not what you want over a season of battling relegation. This reason worried me aswell early on. I thought that meybe we didnt have the experience for it.

 

We did, whether that was Lambert, Davis, Boruc' influence and maybe even morgan who although young has many games under his belt and has been involved relegation scraps before.

 

For this reason I still think Villa will go down, as Wigan have the head for these situations

[Dalek2003]

Can see us getting dragged back into the mire in the upcoming weeks.

 

Makes me cringe to see everyone saying 'we're safe' until we're mathematically safe I won't be opening the Champagne bottle.

 

I know what Saints are like, and it would be very Saints-like for us to lose our next 3 games and have to beat Stoke on the final day to stay up in my opinion.

 

Ssssh ! You will be accused of being a troll !

[Dalek2003]

I don't agree, I think we will need at least 42 to stay up, Wigan will beat West Brom, Swansea and Vill giving them 40 points, they might even beat Spurs as that is exactly the sort of games Spurs will lose. I think Villa may get something at Utd tonight then I can see them beating Sunderland and Norwich giving them 40 also, even if they lose tonight. We need one more win or two draws to be safe. Hope it's against West Brom this week.

 

and another troll it seems

[Dalek2003]

This is absolutely right. Older fans will remember all those years after ww2 when we were in the old 2nd 0r 3rd divisions before Ted Bates built the team that took us into the top flight too. I will be much happier when we are Mathematically safe from relegation and would prefer Stoke rather than AV or Wigan to drop; even though that is unlikely.

 

 

oh dear another troll

[JustMike]

I cannot see us not getting any points and all those below us getting enough. Stoke are woeful also. Wigan will not win 3 of the last 5

[Dalek2003]

Oh btw the Norwich manager must be trolling as they are still talking about needing another win but hey, we have loads more points than them.

[JustMike]

Oh btw the Norwich manager must be trolling as they are still talking about needing another win but hey, we have loads more points than them.

 

trouble is, you do it every season!

[Dalek2003]

trouble is, you do it every season!

 

But why is my point that we will need 41 points to guarantee safety trolling ?

[Toadhall Saint]

Yep. The myth persists that they sent us down. They did no such thing.

 

Yep never needed that lots help for anything.

[The9]

Not a bad return on either, well worth a couple of quid for the pessimists out there! Money where your mouth is lads

 

I'd also say, if people think Saints going down is worth a punt, they might get better odds betting an accumulator for everyone else other than Reading and QPR to stay up.

[The9]

Ha, Reading v QPR on Sunday for the lolz.

[Minsk]

For those who think we won't get another point, here is the current form table:

 

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/form-guide.html

 

We are 4th - only Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal are in better form than us at the moment.

 

As for the OP, I agree that it will be between these 2 (although I would prefer Stoke to go down). I think it will be a close call, and probablt decided on the last match of the season. To be honest, I would rather Wigan stayed up. I haven't liked Villa since the 80's.

[CB Fry]

and another troll it seems

 

oh dear another troll

 

Oh btw the Norwich manager must be trolling as they are still talking about needing another win but hey, we have loads more points than them.

 

But why is my point that we will need 41 points to guarantee safety trolling ?

 

 

 

Hey everyone! It's Dalek's new trolling routine.

 

He's got bored of his "we're-sleepwalking-to-relegation-I honestly-think-we-need-43-points-honest-I-do" routine so he's now trying a new little twist of just mentioning the word troll in every single post.

 

Oh, he's good. This one really is funny and loads better than yo-yo strategy, and we're-going-to-finish-17th and all those other classics that he deathlessly grinds into the dirt for months on end.

 

Well done on another trolling triumph. You are, like, sooo funny.

[UpweySaint]

Hey everyone! It's Dalek's new trolling routine.

 

He's got bored of his "we're-sleepwalking-to-relegation-I honestly-think-we-need-43-points-honest-I-do" routine so he's now trying a new little twist of just mentioning the word troll in every single post.

 

Oh, he's good. This one really is funny and loads better than yo-yo strategy, and we're-going-to-finish-17th and all those other classics that he deathlessly grinds into the dirt for months on end.

 

Well done on another trolling triumph. You are, like, sooo funny.

 

Troll

[Matthew Le God]

But why is my point that we will need 41 points to guarantee safety trolling ?

 

Please use this and post a screenshot of your results...

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

[Lighthouse]

Trying to work out if we can be mathematically safe on Saturday. A win would put us on 42 points.

 

Worst case scenario now is 45 points to guarantee safety but that would be with Norwich, Villa and Wigan all tied on 44 and one of them going down on GD.

 

Wigan 31 points - beat Spurs, WBA, Swans, Arsenal - 13 points - 44 points

Villa 34 points - beat Chelsea, Norwich, Sunderland - 10 points - 44 points

Wigan and Villa Draw

Norwich 38 points - beat West Brom, City - 6 points - 44 points

 

Now forget Norwich, if Spurs beat Wigan then the most they can finish with is:

 

Wigan 31 points - beat WBA, Swans, Arsenal, Villa - 12 points - 43 points

Villa 34 points - beat Chelsea, Sunderland, Norwich - 9 points - 43 points

 

So if Villa lose against Sunderland on Monday the most they can finish on is:

 

Wigan 31 points - beat WBA, Swans, Arsenal - 10 points - 41 points

Villa 34 points - beat Chelsea, Norwich - 7 points - 41 points

and a draw between them on the last game of the season.

 

So in summary, if Saints win and Wigan and Villa lose we are mathematically safe a week today.

[The9]

Hey everyone! It's Dalek's new trolling routine.

 

He's got bored of his "we're-sleepwalking-to-relegation-I honestly-think-we-need-43-points-honest-I-do" routine so he's now trying a new little twist of just mentioning the word troll in every single post.

 

Oh, he's good. This one really is funny and loads better than yo-yo strategy, and we're-going-to-finish-17th and all those other classics that he deathlessly grinds into the dirt for months on end.

 

Well done on another trolling triumph. You are, like, sooo funny.

 

Well thanks for sharing all of his posts with all the people who have explicitly decided they don't want to waste their time looking at them because they find him so tedious, anyway.

[The9]

Trying to work out if we can be mathematically safe on Saturday. A win would put us on 42 points.

 

Worst case scenario now is 45 points to guarantee safety but that would be with Norwich, Villa and Wigan all tied on 44 and one of them going down on GD.

 

Wigan 31 points - beat Spurs, WBA, Swans, Arsenal - 13 points - 44 points

Villa 34 points - beat Chelsea, Norwich, Sunderland - 10 points - 44 points

Wigan and Villa Draw

Norwich 38 points - beat West Brom, City - 6 points - 44 points

 

Now forget Norwich, if Spurs beat Wigan then the most they can finish with is:

 

Wigan 31 points - beat WBA, Swans, Arsenal, Villa - 12 points - 43 points

Villa 34 points - beat Chelsea, Sunderland, Norwich - 9 points - 43 points

 

So if Villa lose against Sunderland on Monday the most they can finish on is:

 

Wigan 31 points - beat WBA, Swans, Arsenal - 10 points - 41 points

Villa 34 points - beat Chelsea, Norwich - 7 points - 41 points

and a draw between them on the last game of the season.

 

So in summary, if Saints win and Wigan and Villa lose we are mathematically safe a week today.

 

Just to be clear, using the 769,000,000 possible outcomes here http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html the worst case scenario was only 43 points BEFORE Villa lost, and the difference in the chance of relegation between 39 and 43 points is only 2.8%, because even 4 defeats only leaves us 2.8% likely to go down.

 

A win will leave us with less than a 0.05% chance of relegation even if Villa beat Sunderland and Wigan beat Spurs. A draw leaves us with basically the same likelihood, a defeat gives us a whole additional 0.2% of worry.

 

There's just no point even considering relegation, we're around 184 times more likely to come 8th than 18th (and we have a tiny chance of coming 7th - winning all 4 in about 5,000 out of 769 million permutations).

[SaintBobby]

It's now quoted as either Wigan or Villa to take the 3rd relegation slot at 1/4 - that's about an 80% chance.

 

20% is anyone else - Stoke, Newcastle, a massive point deduction being applied to Liverpool on grounds of cannabilism etc.

 

You can now easily get 2,500/1 in Las Vegas or - through a very good broker - 5,000/1 on Saints being relegated.

 

You can also, in Vegas, get 4,000/1 on Saints failing to start at all next season in the Football League of 92 teams (the city is nuked, the club goes bust etc).

 

Our chances of being relegated are about the same as Armageddon, basically.

 

I'm inclined to worry more about Armageddon.

[PhilippineSaint]

It's now quoted as either Wigan or Villa to take the 3rd relegation slot at 1/4 - that's about an 80% chance.

 

20% is anyone else - Stoke, Newcastle, a massive point deduction being applied to Liverpool on grounds of cannabilism etc.

 

You can now easily get 2,500/1 in Las Vegas or - through a very good broker - 5,000/1 on Saints being relegated.

 

You can also, in Vegas, get 4,000/1 on Saints failing to start at all next season in the Football League of 92 teams (the city is nuked, the club goes bust etc).

 

Our chances of being relegated are about the same as Armageddon, basically.

 

I'm inclined to worry more about Armageddon.

 

And we know from the Muppet show that that didn't happen