We would still be in a relegation scrap if ........

[whelk]

What do you think are key, or single most factors to us no longer being in a relegation scrap?

 

I think Boruc has saved us more than many think and f we still had Kelvin in goal woudl have probably lost today. Presence just oozes confidence.

[saintbob40]

Jack Cork's return from injury.

[Dibden Purlieu Saint]

Adkins being sacked.

[ToreSF]

Changing manager.

[lifeintheslowlane]

If I stopped eating from my lucky Saints breakfast bowl.

[Andre]

Rodriguez's improved form.

[Saint_Donovan]

Jack corks return and Luke Shaw's "coming of age"

[Wopper]

Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te.

[Cabrone]

We'd be in the relegation zone if Boruc was still sitting on the sidelines.

 

A good outfield team is completely undermined if your keeper isn't up to the job.

 

Boruc has been the key player of the season IMO.

[Dr Who?]

Getting used to the premier league. We have a great set of young players, that are growing with every game they play in the premier league.

 

This coupled with a manager who seems to have taken us on to the next level, and having players that want to play for Southampton FC, as they see a bright future, means we can continue to press on.

 

^ we will not go down now!

[david in sweden]

all of the ABOVE

 

....plus the Pochettino Effect.....and the new style of play . .even if it is with the " old squad ".

[saintmatt]

We hadn't beaten Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool - that's a sobering thought!

[Saint Without a Halo]

Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te.

 

1) I don't think we will lose the next game

2) Even if we did, we are safe already. The current relgation probability now being less than 0.1%

[ibizasaint]

1) I don't think we will lose the next game

2) Even if we did, we are safe already. The current relgation probability now being less than 0.1%

 

is it really 0.1 %? i wont relax till mathematically safe even tho the way we are playing makes me think that wont be long... fingers crossed..

[Glasgow_Saint]

We were staying up regardless....... 2 league defeats in Adkins last 12 games. Thankfully Tino has continued the momentum and form

[CB Fry]

Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te.

 

 

 

Seriously, we won't be. We're safe.

[eurosaint]

My lucky red underpants !

[Sour Mash]

Jack corks return and Luke Shaw's "coming of age"

Exactly this. Just look at our form since they've both been in the team.

[terrasaint]

After we had taken 4 points from the first 10 games we would not have believed the position we are in now. Incredibly only five defeats in the last 24 games.

[rshephard3]

Jack corks return and Luke Shaw's "coming of age"

 

And Morgan Schneiderlin being good enough to dominate some of the best central midfielders in the world.

[Saint Malc]

Fox being relieved of his duties.

[Dalek2003]

1) I don't think we will lose the next game

2) Even if we did, we are safe already. The current relgation probability now being less than 0.1%

 

I cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety !

[Miltonroader07]

Three things really; The Sherriff, Boruc and Cork

 

Not in that order but a mix of the three

[Miltonroader07]

i cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety !

 

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz yawn !!!!!

[Dalek2003]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz yawn !!!!!

 

Well, lets hope we are not sleepwalking to relegation

[scotty]

I cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety !

 

Let it go, Dalek. Your yo-yo theory has drifted away on the tide, have a beer and accept it.

[JustMike]

I cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety !

 

rubbish! We are safe. Wigan / Villa will not win 4 out of 5 and we will not got 4 without picking up some points

[bender]

Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te.

 

Hardly. If that were to happen and Wigan lose to Spuzz, they would still be 8 points behind us with 4 games to go. That's 2 points a game assuming we lose all ours.

[Colinjb]

A mixture of many things already mentioned.

 

The emergence of Luke Shaw and Artur Boruc plugged the two major weakspots in the team. Jack Cork's return solidified the midfield and the pressing style Pochettino employs has extracted the absolute best out of our players.

 

Piece by piece we have improved in every respect since the start of the year.

[S-Clarke]

Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te.

 

If this was in January or February, you'd have a point. But there are only 4 games left, so no, we will not be back in the ****e this year. We are safe and secure.

 

We will not get relegated this season. It's safe to start planning for next year in the PL.

 

Personally, I think the return of Cork has created a real blossoming midfield partnership. Morgan and Cork just ''work'', and they play each other like they're seasoned pro's. I wouldn't split them up next year, in fact I'd say those 2 are pivotal to anything we do next year.

[rshephard3]

If this was in January or February, you'd have a point. But there are only 4 games left, so no, we will not be back in the ****e this year. We are safe and secure.

 

We will not get relegated this season. It's safe to start planning for next year in the PL.

 

Personally, I think the return of Cork has created a real blossoming midfield partnership. Morgan and Cork just ''work'', and they play each other like they're seasoned pro's. I wouldn't split them up next year, in fact I'd say those 2 are pivotal to anything we do next year.

 

Yes. Cork has been magnificent since returning from injury but equally important has been how Morgan has stepped up this season. They form a partnership worthy of building a prem side around, especially given their ages. Mature beyond their years, both of them.

[whelk]

Villa have to play Wigan, stoke, Sunderland -they cant all take 3 pts. Utd and Chelsea are their other 2 games.

Wigan have to go to arsenal and man city and also have Spurs next week

Newcastle have Livepool and Arsenal

Sunderland play stoke and away to Spurs last game

Stoke play Norwich

 

Of course we could go but nearly every result woudl have to go against us which won't happen. Bookies know this hence we are 100/1. Relax although if worried puta tenner on.

[whelk]

Well, lets hope we are not sleepwalking to relegation

Unbeaten in last 6 is hardly sleepwalking into relegation.

[CB Fry]

Well, lets hope we are not sleepwalking to relegation

 

 

 

Oh this new trolling routine is simply hilarious. Really, it's brilliant.

 

Have you worked out next season's rib tickler yet or do we have to wait until August?

[sotonjoe]

Two unprecedented wins against Chelsea and Liverpool. Take six points off and we're right in it.

[Bucks Saint]

Adkins being sacked.

 

Boruc was in, Cork was in, Shaw was in. No new players in Jan (Forren does not even make the bench). Yep Jay Rod massive improvement. Punch has gone downhill a bit. It is far from clear what would have happened

[Dalek2003]

Oh this new trolling routine is simply hilarious. Really, it's brilliant.

 

Have you worked out next season's rib tickler yet or do we have to wait until August?

 

It's not trolling, but as soon as we are safe, we of course have the transfer season. It will be interesting to see if we get in early this year and show a little intent and determination.

[doggface]

Please stop giving attention to boring trolls- ruins this forum

[Miltonroader07]

Well, lets hope we are not sleepwalking to relegation

 

Sometimes you can be a total peni5

[Aardvark]

Two unprecedented wins against Chelsea and Liverpool. Take six points off and we're right in it.

 

Yes but it's all ifs and buts. You are highly selective in mentioning "unprecedented" unlikely wins against Chelsea and Liverpool (not to mention Manchester City and a point at Chelsea) but noticeably ignore (IMO) equally "unprecedented" and unlikely home defeats against Wigan, Sunderland and QPR - you can't have it both ways.

[Saint Without a Halo]

is it really 0.1 %? i wont relax till mathematically safe even tho the way we are playing makes me think that wont be long... fingers crossed..

I cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety !

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

There are 6 teams who need to get more points and goal difference than us for us to go down!

The probability of this happening given they play each other in a number of key matches is miniscule. This is shown in detail the above site!

The site uses a Monte Carlo statistical analysis that simulates the likely outcomes of the remaing matches over 5 million times looking at all probabale outcomes.

It shows us relegated in just 0.07% of all simulations whilst it shows us achieving a 10th place or higher in 22% of the outcomes.

 

i.e we are 300 times more likely to be 10th or better than go down! This methodology is used to reflect bookmakers odds! (All be it they build in profit for themselves so never fully reflect the true probabilities)

 

The model works by looking at each match and attaching likely outcomes i.e if for example Man U v stoke was likely to be a home win 85% of the time a draw 10% of the time and an away win 5% of the time then these are the percentage outcomes for this match over the 5 million runs! By doing the same for all other remaining matches you achieve all likely outcomes. Each simulation then produces a final table and in the 5 Million final tables we are relegated in just 0.07% of thetime a negligable percentage.

 

This probablistic technique is used in Risk analysis in most industries and is highly effective. In fact there are about 800 000 simulations in which we get no points from now till the end of the season and even then we are still not relegated 97% of the time!

 

Relax we are safe!

Edited 21 April, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo

[OttawaSaint]

My lucky red underpants !

 

Mine are always brown when I watch the Saints...

[SaintBobby]

Feels to me that we have been remarkably "injury free" this season. I'm sure some statto will correct me, but we don't seem to have missed any key players for any measurable period of time. Cork out for a few weeks at the start and Adam out for 4 or 5 weeks. Otherwise, we've had nearly all players available nearly all of the time. And no suspensions either, of course.

[SaintBobby]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

There are 6 teams who need to get more points and goal difference than us for us to go down!

The probability of this happening given they play each other in a number of key matches is miniscule. This is shown in detail the above site!

The site uses a Monte Carlo statistical analysis that simulates the likely outcomes of the remaing matches over 5 million times looking at all probabale outcomes.

It shows us relegated in just 0.07% of all simulations whilst it shows us achieving a 10th place or higher in 22% of the outcomes.

 

i.e we are 300 times more likely to be 10th or better than go down! This methodology is used to reflect bookmakers odds! (All be it they build in profit for themselves so never fully reflect the true probabilities)

 

The model works by looking at each match and attaching likely outcomes i.e if for example Man U v stoke was likely to be a home win 85% of the time a draw 10% of the time and an away win 5% of the time then these are the percentage outcomes for this match over the 5 million runs! By doing the same for all other remaining matches you achieve all likely outcomes. Each simulation then produces a final table and in the 5 Million final tables we are relegated in just 0.07% of thetime a negligable percentage.

 

This probablistic technique is used in Risk analysis in most industries and is highly effective. In fact there are about 800 000 simulations in which we get no points from now till the end of the season and even then we are still not relegated 97% of the time!

 

Relax we are safe!

 

I'm trying to work out how likely we are to get 40, 41 or 42 points and still be relegated. Must be bout 0.0000000000000001% or something. (if I read the table right it is now statistically impossible for Saints to get 43 points or more and still be relegated)

Edited 21 April, 2013 by SaintBobby

[Dalek2003]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

There are 6 teams who need to get more points and goal difference than us for us to go down!

The probability of this happening given they play each other in a number of key matches is miniscule. This is shown in detail the above site!

The site uses a Monte Carlo statistical analysis that simulates the likely outcomes of the remaing matches over 5 million times looking at all probabale outcomes.

It shows us relegated in just 0.07% of all simulations whilst it shows us achieving a 10th place or higher in 22% of the outcomes.

 

i.e we are 300 times more likely to be 10th or better than go down! This methodology is used to reflect bookmakers odds! (All be it they build in profit for themselves so never fully reflect the true probabilities)

 

The model works by looking at each match and attaching likely outcomes i.e if for example Man U v stoke was likely to be a home win 85% of the time a draw 10% of the time and an away win 5% of the time then these are the percentage outcomes for this match over the 5 million runs! By doing the same for all other remaining matches you achieve all likely outcomes. Each simulation then produces a final table and in the 5 Million final tables we are relegated in just 0.07% of thetime a negligable percentage.

 

This probablistic technique is used in Risk analysis in most industries and is highly effective. In fact there are about 800 000 simulations in which we get no points from now till the end of the season and even then we are still not relegated 97% of the time!

 

Relax we are safe!

 

Appreciate all your efforts, but.......since when has football been rational. If it is so easy to predict a game of football, how come the 'pools' companies made so much money from the punter ?

I am not trolling, just saying, I will only really rest easy when we are on 41+ points.

[SNSUN]

A mixture of many things already mentioned.

 

The emergence of Luke Shaw and Artur Boruc plugged the two major weakspots in the team. Jack Cork's return solidified the midfield and the pressing style Pochettino employs has extracted the absolute best out of our players.

 

Piece by piece we have improved in every respect since the start of the year.

 

This. I'll add though the recent form of Rodriguez.

[SaintBobby]

Appreciate all your efforts, but.......since when has football been rational. If it is so easy to predict a game of football, how come the 'pools' companies made so much money from the punter ?

I am not trolling, just saying, I will only really rest easy when we are on 41+ points.

 

Because betting companies only offer odds that are rather worse than the likelihood of something actually happening.

 

If something has a 10% chance of happening, a bookie will only offer, say, 8/1 or 15/2.

[K,Billy's supersound]

The players selfbelief that they are good enough for this league and that they can rely on each other. The coaches and fitness team for helping them achieve their best and developing them.

[paulwantsapint]

Villa away

Had jay rod not gone to ground

If villa had used any of their shots towards goal

[Saint Without a Halo]

Appreciate all your efforts, but.......since when has football been rational. If it is so easy to predict a game of football, how come the 'pools' companies made so much money from the punter ?

I am not trolling, just saying, I will only really rest easy when we are on 41+ points.

 

Thanks, but to put your mind at rest You are far more likely to get knocked over crossing the road when you go out than us being relegated this season yet I hope you still go out!

 

As a Saints supporter for over 45 years I have learnt by experience when to relax and when to worry.