whelk Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 What do you think are key, or single most factors to us no longer being in a relegation scrap? I think Boruc has saved us more than many think and f we still had Kelvin in goal woudl have probably lost today. Presence just oozes confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintbob40 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Jack Cork's return from injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibden Purlieu Saint Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Adkins being sacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToreSF Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Changing manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lifeintheslowlane Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 If I stopped eating from my lucky Saints breakfast bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andre Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Rodriguez's improved form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Donovan Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Jack corks return and Luke Shaw's "coming of age" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wopper Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cabrone Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 We'd be in the relegation zone if Boruc was still sitting on the sidelines. A good outfield team is completely undermined if your keeper isn't up to the job. Boruc has been the key player of the season IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Who? Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Getting used to the premier league. We have a great set of young players, that are growing with every game they play in the premier league. This coupled with a manager who seems to have taken us on to the next level, and having players that want to play for Southampton FC, as they see a bright future, means we can continue to press on. ^ we will not go down now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david in sweden Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 all of the ABOVE ....plus the Pochettino Effect.....and the new style of play . .even if it is with the " old squad ". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintmatt Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 We hadn't beaten Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool - that's a sobering thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te. 1) I don't think we will lose the next game 2) Even if we did, we are safe already. The current relgation probability now being less than 0.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ibizasaint Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 1) I don't think we will lose the next game 2) Even if we did, we are safe already. The current relgation probability now being less than 0.1% is it really 0.1 %? i wont relax till mathematically safe even tho the way we are playing makes me think that wont be long... fingers crossed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 We were staying up regardless....... 2 league defeats in Adkins last 12 games. Thankfully Tino has continued the momentum and form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te. Seriously, we won't be. We're safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurosaint Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 My lucky red underpants ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Jack corks return and Luke Shaw's "coming of age" Exactly this. Just look at our form since they've both been in the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrasaint Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 After we had taken 4 points from the first 10 games we would not have believed the position we are in now. Incredibly only five defeats in the last 24 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rshephard3 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Jack corks return and Luke Shaw's "coming of age" And Morgan Schneiderlin being good enough to dominate some of the best central midfielders in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Malc Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Fox being relieved of his duties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 1) I don't think we will lose the next game 2) Even if we did, we are safe already. The current relgation probability now being less than 0.1% I cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miltonroader07 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Three things really; The Sherriff, Boruc and Cork Not in that order but a mix of the three Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miltonroader07 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 i cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety ! zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz yawn !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz yawn !!!!! Well, lets hope we are not sleepwalking to relegation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 I cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety ! Let it go, Dalek. Your yo-yo theory has drifted away on the tide, have a beer and accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMike Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 I cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety ! rubbish! We are safe. Wigan / Villa will not win 4 out of 5 and we will not got 4 without picking up some points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bender Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te. Hardly. If that were to happen and Wigan lose to Spuzz, they would still be 8 points behind us with 4 games to go. That's 2 points a game assuming we lose all ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 A mixture of many things already mentioned. The emergence of Luke Shaw and Artur Boruc plugged the two major weakspots in the team. Jack Cork's return solidified the midfield and the pressing style Pochettino employs has extracted the absolute best out of our players. Piece by piece we have improved in every respect since the start of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Lose the next game and we are back in the sh*te. If this was in January or February, you'd have a point. But there are only 4 games left, so no, we will not be back in the ****e this year. We are safe and secure. We will not get relegated this season. It's safe to start planning for next year in the PL. Personally, I think the return of Cork has created a real blossoming midfield partnership. Morgan and Cork just ''work'', and they play each other like they're seasoned pro's. I wouldn't split them up next year, in fact I'd say those 2 are pivotal to anything we do next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rshephard3 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 If this was in January or February, you'd have a point. But there are only 4 games left, so no, we will not be back in the ****e this year. We are safe and secure. We will not get relegated this season. It's safe to start planning for next year in the PL. Personally, I think the return of Cork has created a real blossoming midfield partnership. Morgan and Cork just ''work'', and they play each other like they're seasoned pro's. I wouldn't split them up next year, in fact I'd say those 2 are pivotal to anything we do next year. Yes. Cork has been magnificent since returning from injury but equally important has been how Morgan has stepped up this season. They form a partnership worthy of building a prem side around, especially given their ages. Mature beyond their years, both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 21 April, 2013 Author Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Villa have to play Wigan, stoke, Sunderland -they cant all take 3 pts. Utd and Chelsea are their other 2 games. Wigan have to go to arsenal and man city and also have Spurs next week Newcastle have Livepool and Arsenal Sunderland play stoke and away to Spurs last game Stoke play Norwich Of course we could go but nearly every result woudl have to go against us which won't happen. Bookies know this hence we are 100/1. Relax although if worried puta tenner on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 21 April, 2013 Author Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Well, lets hope we are not sleepwalking to relegation Unbeaten in last 6 is hardly sleepwalking into relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Well, lets hope we are not sleepwalking to relegation Oh this new trolling routine is simply hilarious. Really, it's brilliant. Have you worked out next season's rib tickler yet or do we have to wait until August? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sotonjoe Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Two unprecedented wins against Chelsea and Liverpool. Take six points off and we're right in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucks Saint Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Adkins being sacked. Boruc was in, Cork was in, Shaw was in. No new players in Jan (Forren does not even make the bench). Yep Jay Rod massive improvement. Punch has gone downhill a bit. It is far from clear what would have happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Oh this new trolling routine is simply hilarious. Really, it's brilliant. Have you worked out next season's rib tickler yet or do we have to wait until August? It's not trolling, but as soon as we are safe, we of course have the transfer season. It will be interesting to see if we get in early this year and show a little intent and determination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doggface Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Please stop giving attention to boring trolls- ruins this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miltonroader07 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Well, lets hope we are not sleepwalking to relegation Sometimes you can be a total peni5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aardvark Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Two unprecedented wins against Chelsea and Liverpool. Take six points off and we're right in it. Yes but it's all ifs and buts. You are highly selective in mentioning "unprecedented" unlikely wins against Chelsea and Liverpool (not to mention Manchester City and a point at Chelsea) but noticeably ignore (IMO) equally "unprecedented" and unlikely home defeats against Wigan, Sunderland and QPR - you can't have it both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 (edited) is it really 0.1 %? i wont relax till mathematically safe even tho the way we are playing makes me think that wont be long... fingers crossed.. I cannot believe the complacency on here. We are still need another couple of points to be sure of safety ! http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html There are 6 teams who need to get more points and goal difference than us for us to go down! The probability of this happening given they play each other in a number of key matches is miniscule. This is shown in detail the above site! The site uses a Monte Carlo statistical analysis that simulates the likely outcomes of the remaing matches over 5 million times looking at all probabale outcomes. It shows us relegated in just 0.07% of all simulations whilst it shows us achieving a 10th place or higher in 22% of the outcomes. i.e we are 300 times more likely to be 10th or better than go down! This methodology is used to reflect bookmakers odds! (All be it they build in profit for themselves so never fully reflect the true probabilities) The model works by looking at each match and attaching likely outcomes i.e if for example Man U v stoke was likely to be a home win 85% of the time a draw 10% of the time and an away win 5% of the time then these are the percentage outcomes for this match over the 5 million runs! By doing the same for all other remaining matches you achieve all likely outcomes. Each simulation then produces a final table and in the 5 Million final tables we are relegated in just 0.07% of thetime a negligable percentage. This probablistic technique is used in Risk analysis in most industries and is highly effective. In fact there are about 800 000 simulations in which we get no points from now till the end of the season and even then we are still not relegated 97% of the time! Relax we are safe! Edited 21 April, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 My lucky red underpants ! Mine are always brown when I watch the Saints... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Feels to me that we have been remarkably "injury free" this season. I'm sure some statto will correct me, but we don't seem to have missed any key players for any measurable period of time. Cork out for a few weeks at the start and Adam out for 4 or 5 weeks. Otherwise, we've had nearly all players available nearly all of the time. And no suspensions either, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 (edited) http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html There are 6 teams who need to get more points and goal difference than us for us to go down! The probability of this happening given they play each other in a number of key matches is miniscule. This is shown in detail the above site! The site uses a Monte Carlo statistical analysis that simulates the likely outcomes of the remaing matches over 5 million times looking at all probabale outcomes. It shows us relegated in just 0.07% of all simulations whilst it shows us achieving a 10th place or higher in 22% of the outcomes. i.e we are 300 times more likely to be 10th or better than go down! This methodology is used to reflect bookmakers odds! (All be it they build in profit for themselves so never fully reflect the true probabilities) The model works by looking at each match and attaching likely outcomes i.e if for example Man U v stoke was likely to be a home win 85% of the time a draw 10% of the time and an away win 5% of the time then these are the percentage outcomes for this match over the 5 million runs! By doing the same for all other remaining matches you achieve all likely outcomes. Each simulation then produces a final table and in the 5 Million final tables we are relegated in just 0.07% of thetime a negligable percentage. This probablistic technique is used in Risk analysis in most industries and is highly effective. In fact there are about 800 000 simulations in which we get no points from now till the end of the season and even then we are still not relegated 97% of the time! Relax we are safe! I'm trying to work out how likely we are to get 40, 41 or 42 points and still be relegated. Must be bout 0.0000000000000001% or something. (if I read the table right it is now statistically impossible for Saints to get 43 points or more and still be relegated) Edited 21 April, 2013 by SaintBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html There are 6 teams who need to get more points and goal difference than us for us to go down! The probability of this happening given they play each other in a number of key matches is miniscule. This is shown in detail the above site! The site uses a Monte Carlo statistical analysis that simulates the likely outcomes of the remaing matches over 5 million times looking at all probabale outcomes. It shows us relegated in just 0.07% of all simulations whilst it shows us achieving a 10th place or higher in 22% of the outcomes. i.e we are 300 times more likely to be 10th or better than go down! This methodology is used to reflect bookmakers odds! (All be it they build in profit for themselves so never fully reflect the true probabilities) The model works by looking at each match and attaching likely outcomes i.e if for example Man U v stoke was likely to be a home win 85% of the time a draw 10% of the time and an away win 5% of the time then these are the percentage outcomes for this match over the 5 million runs! By doing the same for all other remaining matches you achieve all likely outcomes. Each simulation then produces a final table and in the 5 Million final tables we are relegated in just 0.07% of thetime a negligable percentage. This probablistic technique is used in Risk analysis in most industries and is highly effective. In fact there are about 800 000 simulations in which we get no points from now till the end of the season and even then we are still not relegated 97% of the time! Relax we are safe! Appreciate all your efforts, but.......since when has football been rational. If it is so easy to predict a game of football, how come the 'pools' companies made so much money from the punter ? I am not trolling, just saying, I will only really rest easy when we are on 41+ points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 A mixture of many things already mentioned. The emergence of Luke Shaw and Artur Boruc plugged the two major weakspots in the team. Jack Cork's return solidified the midfield and the pressing style Pochettino employs has extracted the absolute best out of our players. Piece by piece we have improved in every respect since the start of the year. This. I'll add though the recent form of Rodriguez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Appreciate all your efforts, but.......since when has football been rational. If it is so easy to predict a game of football, how come the 'pools' companies made so much money from the punter ? I am not trolling, just saying, I will only really rest easy when we are on 41+ points. Because betting companies only offer odds that are rather worse than the likelihood of something actually happening. If something has a 10% chance of happening, a bookie will only offer, say, 8/1 or 15/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K,Billy's supersound Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 The players selfbelief that they are good enough for this league and that they can rely on each other. The coaches and fitness team for helping them achieve their best and developing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulwantsapint Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Villa away Had jay rod not gone to ground If villa had used any of their shots towards goal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 21 April, 2013 Share Posted 21 April, 2013 Appreciate all your efforts, but.......since when has football been rational. If it is so easy to predict a game of football, how come the 'pools' companies made so much money from the punter ? I am not trolling, just saying, I will only really rest easy when we are on 41+ points. Thanks, but to put your mind at rest You are far more likely to get knocked over crossing the road when you go out than us being relegated this season yet I hope you still go out! As a Saints supporter for over 45 years I have learnt by experience when to relax and when to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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