trousers Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smirking_Saint Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Run was rubbish, he was offside ! And he did hit it straight at Jaaskelainen's standing leg... I disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrunkenSaint Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 I agree. As I posted earlier, I am 100% sure Wigan will not catch us and I would much rather see Villa or Stoke go down (or Sunderland for that matter). Yeah i would love if Villa or Stoke went down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlakeySFC Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Honestly not fussed who goes down (apart from QPR) Got no particular hatred towards Stoke, Villa etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Avoiding relegation is our number one goal, and Wigan losing tonight gets us a massive step towards that. Sure we should be looking up the table, but if Wigan had won tonight they'd have been four points behind us with a game in hand and that would have been uncomfortable, especially with Sunderland's much improved performance against Newcastle showing the Di Canio effect may have an effect, Stoke who have battling qualities and should never be ruled out, and Villa who have strung together some admirable results of late. We can sleep a lot easier tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Alladyce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crab Lungs Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Fat Slug, whinging away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Avoiding relegation is our number one goal, and Wigan losing tonight gets us a massive step towards that. Sure we should be looking up the table, but if Wigan had won tonight they'd have been four points behind us with a game in hand and that would have been uncomfortable, especially with Sunderland's much improved performance against Newcastle showing the Di Canio effect may have an effect, Stoke who have battling qualities and should never be ruled out, and Villa who have strung together some admirable results of late. We can sleep a lot easier tonight. Sleep easier? Have you been worried about relegation? Think threat went few weeks ago. Without another point (and we will get a few) we would stay up imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Because we are no means safe if Wigan won tonight! We were, as of last Sunday's results, precisely 0.2% likely to get relegated. We also have a less than 40% chance of getting relegated even if we lose every match. I actually wanted Wigan to win because I've predicted Villa to go down for months and aside from the reason given above I have no further interest in it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 I disagree With what ? That a run where the player is offside is a "good run" ? How, when even if he puts it in the back of the net it means nothing ? I'm pretty sure we're agreed that it wasn't a great save, Jaaskelainen knew nothing about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Sleep easier? Have you been worried about relegation? Think threat went few weeks ago. Without another point (and we will get a few) we would stay up imho. I'm still mildly bewildered when we sing "we are staying up" to be honest, I haven't thought we were going down since we won our first match under Pochettino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Sleep easier? Have you been worried about relegation? Think threat went few weeks ago. Without another point (and we will get a few) we would stay up imho. You wouldn't be uncomfortable if our season finished now on 38 points and everyone else still had 5/6 games left to play? I know I would. I do think we'll pick up more points as we've been in good form, but a bad run of form can happen at any time. With 90 million quid at stake perhaps I'm more nervous than I should be with our position. Anyway, it's moot now, effectively that's an 8 point gap and I'm happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suewhistle Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 I had a look at the Wigan and WH streams when I came in late from work: I must admit based on the football I'm beginning to feel a lot more sympathetic to Wigan, at least compared to WH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 (edited) I'll recap... in order for us to be relegated ALL the following things have to happen : Either QPR or Reading win all of their matches and we fail to pick up another point or they cannot catch us, leaving only one relegation place (and they are playing each other so only one of them can catch us anyway). Wigan have to win 2 games more than us (or 1 win and 2 draws more) in their last 6 games. (They have to play Villa, they can't both win). Villa have to win 2 games more than us (or 1 win and 2 draws more) in their last 5 games - (one of which is against Sunderland, one against Wigan, which they can't both win.) Stoke and Sunderland also have to win 2 games more than us (or 1 win and 2 draws more), both are playing us, (Stoke are playing QPR, Norwich and Sunderland). (Sunderland have us and Stoke). Norwich have to win 1 and draw 1 more than us (and are playing Reading, Stoke and Villa). Newcastle have to win 1 game less than us. West Ham have to at least match our results. Fulham have to at least match our results. Swansea can only afford to lose one match more than us (and are playing us, as well as Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd). West Brom can afford to lose two matches more than us (and are playing us). Edited 17 April, 2013 by The9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Thought all season that we would be mathematically safe before the last weekend. Just thought could see enough attacking quality to get wins - even if not grinding out draws, when forwards click would get enough points. Since beating Villa away thought would have relaxed end of season. So many teams right at bottom either play each other, or have hard run ins, I was happy after beating Reading that our points total plus GD was enough to stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suewhistle Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 I've just popped over to watch Evian (remember that pre-season friendly?) against PSG. Paris player just sent off - extra time in the cup, getting tasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markr27 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Someone I know has seemingly worked it out... "43 points will be safe, even if everyone below wins all their games where possible." I presume this includes games where two rivals play each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Didcot Saint Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Wigan probably deserve to stay up more than a prehistoric pub team like West Sham, however, if you keep playing Russian Roulette, sooner or later....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_D Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Alladyce We really did get to him didn't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suewhistle Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 I've just popped over to watch Evian (remember that pre-season friendly?) against PSG. Paris player just sent off - extra time in the cup, getting tasty... Evian through 4-1 on pens... Good penalties too: anything to get the taste of WH football out of my thoughts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Someone I know has seemingly worked it out... "43 points will be safe, even if everyone below wins all their games where possible." I presume this includes games where two rivals play each other. Trying to think of the worst case scenario Wigan beat everyone and lose to Villa - 46 points Villa win all except Norwich- 46 Sunderland win all except Villa - 46 Stoke win all except Sunderland - 46 Norwich win all except Stoke - 47 Newcastle win every game - 51 West Ham win all except Wigan and Newcastle - 48 points Unlikely but we could mathematically go down with 45 points as it stands. That number will decrease every week as teams drop points. Teams below us drawing in the games each other is always going to be the best result (apart from QPR and Reading, we want to win). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Someone I know has seemingly worked it out... "43 points will be safe, even if everyone below wins all their games where possible." I presume this includes games where two rivals play each other. The "someone you know" probably saw it here : http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html That link shows that having our current total of 38pts at the end of the season is a 14.4% chance of relegation. 39 pts means we are 3.2% likely to get relegated, 40 pts means we are 0.4% likely to get relegated 41 points or 42 points is less than 0.05% likely to be relegated If we get 43 points with 5 draws we cannot be relegated If we get 43 points via 1 win and 2 draws we are still less than 0.05% likely to be relegated 44 points is the all-situations safety total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 (edited) Trying to think of the worst case scenario Wigan beat everyone and lose to Villa - 46 points Villa win all except Norwich- 46 Sunderland win all except Villa - 46 Stoke win all except Sunderland - 46 Norwich win all except Stoke - 47 Newcastle win every game - 51 West Ham win all except Wigan and Newcastle - 48 points Unlikely but we could mathematically go down with 45 points as it stands. That number will decrease every week as teams drop points. Teams below us drawing in the games each other is always going to be the best result (apart from QPR and Reading, we want to win). See above, we can't. I think maybe there are more matches between two teams below us than you've considered, so you've not deducted some more points that one or other of the teams must drop. The link above is the probability calculated on a few hundred million permutations of the possible results for each final points total. Either that or the probability of it happening is so small it results in a "not possible" result, which I don't think is the case as that website shows 0.0% rather than "No" in that case, which it does for Saints from 41-43 points. Also, if we have 45 points, West Brom, Swansea and Fulham also need to get to that total. Who do Saints beat to get us to 45 ? We'd have to get 7 points from West Brom, Sunderland, Swansea, Stoke and Tottenham - even if we beat Spurs that means 2 other teams in that equation also dropping points. Edited 17 April, 2013 by The9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markr27 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 (edited) The "someone you know" probably saw it here : http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html That link shows that having our current total of 38pts at the end of the season is a 14.4% chance of relegation. 39 pts means we are 3.2% likely to get relegated, 40 pts means we are 0.4% likely to get relegated 41 points or 42 points is less than 0.05% likely to be relegated If we get 43 points with 5 draws we cannot be relegated If we get 43 points via 1 win and 2 draws we are still less than 0.05% likely to be relegated 44 points is the all-situations safety total. I suspect he worked it out himself, given his past history with statistics. In his younger days during the school holidays he used to add up the total commercial value of the Argos catalogue.....life in rural Somerset was very slow and lonely in the 90s... Edited 17 April, 2013 by markr27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 See above, we can't. I think there are more matches between two teams below us than you've considered so you've not deducted some more points that one or other of the teams must drop. The link above is the probability calculated on a few hundred million permutations of the possible results for each final points total. Wigan 31 points - beat Wham, Spurs, WBA, Swans, City - 15 points - 46 points Villa 34 points - beat Wigan, Chelsea, Utd, Sunderland - 12 points - 46 points Norwich 35 points - beat Villa, West Brom, Reading, City - 12 points - 47 points Stoke 34 points - beat Saints, Spurs, QPR, Norwich - 12 points - 46 points Sunderland 34 points - beat Spurs, Saints, Everton, Stoke - 12 points - 46 points Newcastle only play Wham, so 5 wins and Wham can easily get to 46. Where have I gone wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 I'm still mildly bewildered when we sing "we are staying up" to be honest, I haven't thought we were going down since we won our first match under Pochettino. I said as much when that was being sung on Saturday. I can hardly remember a more comfortable finish to a top flight season for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Wigan 31 points - beat Wham, Spurs, WBA, Swans, City - 15 points - 46 points Villa 34 points - beat Wigan, Chelsea, Utd, Sunderland - 12 points - 46 points Norwich 35 points - beat Villa, West Brom, Reading, City - 12 points - 47 points Stoke 34 points - beat Saints, Spurs, QPR, Norwich - 12 points - 46 points Sunderland 34 points - beat Spurs, Saints, Everton, Stoke - 12 points - 46 points Newcastle only play Wham, so 5 wins and Wham can easily get to 46. Where have I gone wrong? I can only assume it's in the knock on effect of how Saints get to 45. Even if we beat Spurs we must take 4 points from Sunderland, West Brom, Swansea or Stoke somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 I can only assume it's in the knock on effect of how Saints get to 45. Even if we beat Spurs we must take 4 points from Sunderland, West Brom, Swansea or Stoke somehow. We can beat Spurs, West Brom and Swansea and finish on 47. Swansea can get 9 points of Utd, City and Chelsea so they will be comfortably above it too. Fulham can beat Liverpool, Reading and Arsenal so they're fine too. I'm stumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwsaint Posted 17 April, 2013 Share Posted 17 April, 2013 Wigan 31 points - beat Wham, Spurs, WBA, Swans, City - 15 points - 46 points Villa 34 points - beat Wigan, Chelsea, Utd, Sunderland - 12 points - 46 points Norwich 35 points - beat Villa, West Brom, Reading, City - 12 points - 47 points Stoke 34 points - beat Saints, Spurs, QPR, Norwich - 12 points - 46 points Sunderland 34 points - beat Spurs, Saints, Everton, Stoke - 12 points - 46 points Newcastle only play Wham, so 5 wins and Wham can easily get to 46. Where have I gone wrong? Wigan vs Man City is the FA Cup final so that should be Arsenal away. Apart from that I can't see anything wrong although it is an extremely unlikely set of results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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