Sunday Games.

[Dalek2003]

Not bothered at all by Sunderland's victory. We don't need to worry any more, which made that second half very entertaining viewing to due two cracking goals (although one was offside and the other terrible Newc marking) and due to Di Canio's reaction. He's going to be fun.

 

Yes we do, it is not the league position that counts but how many points we are clear of relegation. I said some while ago, we need 43 point to be sure of safety and I stand by this.

[scotty]

Yes we do, it is not the league position that counts but how many points we are clear of relegation. I said some while ago, we need 43 point to be sure of safety and I stand by this.

 

Any prediction for our finishing position?

[Crazy Diamond]

Yes we do, it is not the league position that counts but how many points we are clear of relegation. I said some while ago, we need 43 point to be sure of safety and I stand by this.

 

This target would have been achieved quite some time ago under Hoddle.

 

Stoke looking poor and have a tough run in. They are in serious trouble.

 

They've been criticised for years for their style of play and they've changed it. They used to play rough football, now they play losing football. I like it.

[Dark Munster]

Reading will finish bottom. QPR have a far better squad and are playing better than Reading are at the moment. Reading's good form seemed to coincide with Le Fondre's run of nicking goals when he was coming off the bench.

 

Reading's main problems are a lack of pace without Kebe and a lack of a goalscorer. QPR have bags of pace in their team and a good goalscorer in Remy, it's just their lack of spirit, teamwork and also making lots of mistakes that have kept them low in the table.

In other words, a crap manager. But amazingly, after they've gone down, I bet he'll still have no relegations on his CV, as far as the media are concerned.

[BallBoy]

I am among those who think we will probably stay up but that does not stop me worrying. I would definitely have liked Newcastle to win. That would have made the gap between us and the relegation places 7 as opposed to the 4 that it is now (I am not including Wigan who have 2 games in hand). With 15 points left to play for 4 points is not that much to make up. All of these teams are capable of putting together a winning streak. We are more than capable of going on a losing streak.

 

I repeat - I think we will probably stay up but I will be happier when it is mathematically certain.

[hypochondriac]

I am among those who think we will probably stay up but that does not stop me worrying. I would definitely have liked Newcastle to win. That would have made the gap between us and the relegation places 7 as opposed to the 4 that it is now (I am not including Wigan who have 2 games in hand). With 15 points left to play for 4 points is not that much to make up. All of these teams are capable of putting together a winning streak. We are more than capable of going on a losing streak.

 

I repeat - I think we will probably stay up but I will be happier when it is mathematically certain.

 

All are capable but not every one of them below us will do.

[mcjwills]

Well looks like I will have to support Manure on wednesday against Wet Sham anything to keep clubs below us.

[Bananaman]

Yes we do, it is not the league position that counts but how many points we are clear of relegation. I said some while ago, we need 43 point to be sure of safety and I stand by this.

 

I agree, Wigan need only win one of their two games in hand and we are only 4 points clear of the drop zone.

[kpturner]

I agree, Wigan need only win one of their two games in hand and we are only 4 points clear of the drop zone.

 

But then you are missing the point made several times here that it is not just the points but the sheer number of teams between us and them. It is highly unlikely that they will all be able to overhaul us even if we lose every games from now on - which is equally unlikely.

[Window Cleaner]

I agree, Wigan need only win one of their two games in hand and we are only 4 points clear of the drop zone.

 

but you need to take GD and remaining fixtures into account. 38 points and a respectable GD is enough. Not all of the teams below us on or potentially on 34 points will get 5 more than us. We're just playing for the place money now.

[Dalek2003]

but you need to take GD and remaining fixtures into account. 38 points and a respectable GD is enough. Not all of the teams below us on or potentially on 34 points will get 5 more than us. We're just playing for the place money now.

 

I hope you are right, don't get me wrong. Just that supporting Saints .......etc etc.

[Matthew Le God]

Stoke City have picked up 5 points in the whole of 2013!

 

For Saints to go down ALL the teams from 12th to 18th need to do better than Saints (many significantly better as they are a number of points and GD behind us), it simply isn't going to happen and given teams will have to take points off each other. Saints are actually very close to mathematical safety. It isn't just a case of "Can the current 18th place team catch Saints?", everyone else has to aswell.

[CB Fry]

Yes we do, it is not the league position that counts but how many points we are clear of relegation. I said some while ago, we need 43 point to be sure of safety and I stand by this.

 

Dalek new troll routine alert. Dalek new troll routine alert.

 

Probably not as hilarious as the Yo-yo policy stuff. That really was quite brilliant.

[Window Cleaner]

What is Danny Graham's reaction to the third goal all about? Hands on hips glaring at Vaughan as if to say "wtf did you do that for?"

Either he had a big bet on 0-2 or he thought it had missed

 

 

perhaps he's a fair play afficionado and was outraged because Vaughan was clearly offside. Awful reffing, penalties refused by the score,offside goal given, good goal disallowed for offside.yellow cards instead of straight reds, clueless all of them.

[Dalek2003]

Dalek new troll routine alert. Dalek new troll routine alert.

 

Probably not as hilarious as the Yo-yo policy stuff. That really was quite brilliant.

 

Well if you call this trolling, then I am in good company. Mind you CB Fry, you are showing form again. All hail the might CB FRY always right !

[Chewy]

Yes we do, it is not the league position that counts but how many points we are clear of relegation. I said some while ago, we need 43 point to be sure of safety and I stand by this.

 

I said some while ago 38 points will be enough and I stand by this.

[Window Cleaner]

I said some while ago 38 points will be enough and I stand by this.

 

Always been the target for survival as far as I'm concerned, now we need to get as high as possible because at some 750K a place the difference between 17th and 11th buys you a handy player.

[CB Fry]

Well if you call this trolling, then I am in good company. Mind you CB Fry, you are showing form again. All hail the might CB FRY always right !

 

Do the yo-yo stuff again. Go on. We all fell for it, we did.

 

You're, like, the king of trolls.

[Matthew Le God]

Yes we do, it is not the league position that counts but how many points we are clear of relegation. I said some while ago, we need 43 point to be sure of safety and I stand by this.

 

For that to happen, every team from 12th to 18th will need to win the majority of their remaining games.

 

Please stop posting nonsense Dalek2003.

Edited 14 April, 2013 by Matthew Le God

[Dr Who?]

I think we will be fine, but a win yesterday would have been better for my health.

[S-Clarke]

For that to happen, every team from 12th to 18th will need to win the majority of their remaining games.

 

Please stop posting nonsense Dalek2003.

 

Which isn't actually possible, as they have to play each other. So you're right, complete nonsense as usual. We must be close to mathematical safety, but I'm not clever enough to work out all the permutations.

[OttawaSaint]

Which isn't actually possible, as they have to play each other. So you're right, complete nonsense as usual. We must be close to mathematical safety, but I'm not clever enough to work out all the permutations.

 

This doesn't really answer you question per se, but gives a nice indication of how unlikely relegation is: the link below puts us at 0.2% chance of going down.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

[Dalek2003]

Do the yo-yo stuff again. Go on. We all fell for it, we did.

 

You're, like, the king of trolls.

 

CB Fry, I know I have rattled you every time you resort to personal insults, which you often do to many people.

[OttawaSaint]

In fairness Dalek was half right about the yo-yo strategy, except that it was the Saints manager that is going to yo but not the team, whether he completes the second yo is up for debate.

[Saint Without a Halo]

Really ? Wigan will win 1 of there games in hand, you would of thought, that leaves us only 4 points off with 5 games left

 

There are too many teams between us and the bottom 3 with only a few games left! It is the number of teams that all need to go past us in the last few games rather than the points difference which is our greatest asset at present.

[Tamesaint]

You can get c 25/1 on a treble of 3 ex Saints managers being relegated.

 

Adkins andRedk r app are gimmes. Pardew would be the third.

 

I have seen worse bets.

[Dalek2003]

There are too many teams between us and the bottom 3 with only a few games left! It is the number of teams that all need to go past us in the last few games rather than the points difference which is our greatest asset at present.

 

I disagree, I always look at the points. There are a lot of teams bunched together and relegation could be decided on the slimmest of margins, 43 points would make us safe. I reckon one team will be relegated with more than 38 points this season.

[The9]

Newcastle win is a no brainer!

 

A Sunderland win was a no brainer, it's highly unlikely that Wigan will win 3 more than us, and all of Villa, Sunderland and Stoke will also win 2 games more than us, and Norwich and Newcastle need to win at least one more than us in the run in, as well as West Ham getting more points than us (from one more game), which is what needs to happen for us to go down.

 

Our concern should be getting into the top half, not worrying about the teams at the bottom. If we play as if we're safe and persist with our passing we'll be fine, we'll probably need to lose all 5 to go down.

[The9]

Dalek new troll routine alert. Dalek new troll routine alert.

 

Probably not as hilarious as the Yo-yo policy stuff. That really was quite brilliant.

 

Or that "definitely not coming 10th" stuff, he's a genius. That was him, right ?

[Tamesaint]

Or that "definitely not coming 10th" stuff, he's a genius. That was him, right ?

 

You have to be an absolute moron to think that we could finish tenth.

[Jonnyboy]

Liking the new aerial camera on motd2. Like playing sensible soccer or summat.

[shurlock]

Or that "definitely not coming 10th" stuff, he's a genius. That was him, right ?

 

Or the Stoke as blueprint on how to run a successful football club stuff. He really is without peer.

[Tamesaint]

Or the Stoke as blueprint on how to run a successful football club stuff. He really is without peer.

 

He is very intelligent. Don't you realise??

[iansums]

You have to be an absolute moron to think that we could finish tenth.

 

I must be an absolute moron then because I think we can finish tenth, actually I know we can finish tenth because it is a fact (do the maths). I don't think we will however. I just love the arrogance of some on this forum stating opinion as fact, even MLG is at it.

 

I'm still a little worried that we may go down. Imagine us losing the next two and the 7 below us each picking up a win in the next two, we would be right in it again. I don't think it will happen but would love to see a win next Saturday just to ease my fears.

[Cabrone]

It's all looking a bit close for comfort down the bottom but our saving grace should be that a lot of the bottom teams need to play each other so there will be a fair bit of cancelling of points amongst them.

 

Fixtures yet to play amongst the teams still in contention at the bottom (Norwich -> Wigan) are:

 

Villa v Sunderland

Norwich v Villa

Wigan v Villa

Stoke v Norwich

Sunderland v Stoke

 

Plus we have:

Saints v Stoke

Sunderland v Saints

 

Win any one of these games and we are all but safe.

 

Plus:

Wigan have Man City(h) and Arsenal(a)

Villa have Man Utd(a) and Chelsea(h)

Norwich have Man City(a)

 

So:

- Plenty of points to be dropped by Norwich\Stoke\Sunderland\Villa\Wigan yet

- Some tough games left for Wigan\Villa\Norwich

- Stoke\Villa\Sunderland also have to gain 4 points to draw level with us.

 

I'd say we have a fair chance of surviving on 38 but one more win should absolutely do it.

 

All this assumes that QPR and Reading are already down.

 

Looks like Villa are going to have an immense month ahead. If they get out of this situation then this will have been their great escape.

[Alanh]

I disagree, I always look at the points. There are a lot of teams bunched together and relegation could be decided on the slimmest of margins, 43 points would make us safe. I reckon one team will be relegated with more than 38 points this season.

Do the BBC league predictor and try to engineer it so that every team currently below us gets enough points to overtake us and we get no more. I'm pretty sure that it's impossible for them all to catch us.

[Scummer]

Do the BBC league predictor and try to engineer it so that every team currently below us gets enough points to overtake us and we get no more. I'm pretty sure that it's impossible for them all to catch us.

 

Hmm it's definitely possible. Just managed to get us coming 18th and 6 points behind Norwich on 44, with Villa Stoke and Sunderland on 46. Wigan came 9th with 52 points.

 

Not going to happen though.

[KelvinsRightGlove]

Do the BBC league predictor and try to engineer it so that every team currently below us gets enough points to overtake us and we get no more. I'm pretty sure that it's impossible for them all to catch us.

 

Exactly. Dalek you dismiss the position, but you do still have to take into account the amount of teams between us and relegation.

 

For us to get relegated, that would mean 7 teams, from the bottom half, outperforming us.

 

Yes, one, maybe two, possibly even three of them may go on a winning run, but 7 seems just a tad unlikely.

[Alanh]

Hmm it's definitely possible. Just managed to get us coming 18th and 6 points behind Norwich on 44, with Villa Stoke and Sunderland on 46. Wigan came 9th with 52 points.

 

Not going to happen though.

 

Yeah, just did it myself and we can mathematically finish 18th. I agree, the sequences of results required and the changes in form for many of the teams below us means that it's not going to happen. I also did it based on what I thought would happen and had us finishing on 43 points in 12th. I think that's more realistic than 18th with 38 points.

[hypochondriac]

I did it with us losing every game and being very generous with the teams below and we finish eighteenth by one point by losing to stoke on the final day. We will be fine. One more win and we are home and dry.

[Lighthouse]

Just done the predictor and had us staying up on 42 whilst Villa go down on GD to Wigan on 37 points. That's beating West Brom, drawing against Stoke and losing the other 3 so being pretty harsh on Saints.