Wiggles31 Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Fixtures are kind to us next week to climb higher. We need to beat Swansea away to have a real chance. I certainly have belief.
ericb Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Nope but i think it's highly unlikely given Fulham have two games in hand and the fact that when we're safe there's a good chance our season will peter out a bit. Would be great if we could do it though.
Dig Dig Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Mate, we're currently 11th. Long way off 10th so lets just focus on avoiding relegation before we start ridiculous talk of finishing 10th. Next you'll be saying we can finish 9th! Lol, silly man.
saints_is_the_south Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Ridiculous idea. Lock this thread now please mods.
Manuel Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Champions League place still mathematically possible.
Andre Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Won't happen, but no reason why it couldn't if we really keep up the form. We have the ability to beat West Ham, Swansea, West Brom and Stoke if we really have good days at the office, but they are very good opponents too and we should just focus on each game at a time.
saintchris23 Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Champions League place still mathematically possible. No it's not.
Super_Saint Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Swansea still have to play Chelsea, City and United. They also have to play Fulham which would knock points off one of them, and of course they play us. Fulham have to play Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Swansea. Why are people talking as if it's impossible. We have a relatively easy fixture list, and if we play the way we have been we have a chance of winning at least four of those. Let's look up now, not down.
Danish Saint Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Agree with Super_Saint. Ambitions at the club are at an all time high and Pochettino is showing no sign of relaxing his demands even the slightest. A European adventure would come at a high prize though, but nice to see the position we're in. Hopefully we'll consolidate our position, let some of the youngsters get some PL experience and be ready to go even higher next season.
ToreSF Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Top ten is possible, but I think it will be difficult. Fulham are in good form, but have some difficult fixtures remaining. Swansea seems to have lost a bit of momentum after their cup win, while West Brom are a bit up and down, but mostly up, and I'm pretty sure they will finish strongly with some very winnable fixtures remaining (except the one against us, of course). It's hard to predict anything about us, as we have the potential to win each of our remaining fixtures, but also have obvious flaws that can make us loose against anyone on a bad day. I think a cautious prediction is that we we will pick up something between 7-10 points from our remaining fixtures. Might be enough for top 10.
david in sweden Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Will I still be ridiculed for suggesting it ? I don't know who's counting, but I fancied us to finish above West Ham, and I'll be pleased if we do that. I recall an interview with " Big Sam " after they beat us 4-1 (a very over-rated result).and there was no-one more shocked than he. All he could talk about was the tough games upcoming for WHam. They're not as good as they brag. A good win next weekend would give me great satisfaction ....as would a win over Sp*ds....Hopefully.. if Bale does not play, we'll see if they are just a " one-trick pony ".
david in sweden Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Champions League place still mathematically possible. Not CL ..but perhaps some sort of Euro involvement for our " Fair Play " stats. Don't know how it stands at present... but we have good figures around Christmas time....
VectisSaint Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Swansea still have to play Chelsea, City and United. They also have to play Fulham which would knock points off one of them, and of course they play us. Fulham have to play Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Swansea. Why are people talking as if it's impossible. We have a relatively easy fixture list, and if we play the way we have been we have a chance of winning at least four of those. Let's look up now, not down. Why is playing City, Chelski or Liverpool seen as a bad thing for these teams. They are easy fixtures, after all we beat all of them, so can't be too hard. :-)
VectisSaint Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Not CL ..but perhaps some sort of Euro involvement for our " Fair Play " stats. Don't know how it stands at present... but we have good figures around Christmas time.... Please no, we don't have squad for Europa League - time and again the Noddy competition costs teams dearly, income is not worth it, we would really struggle in PL if we had to play in this silly competition and we would be playing competitive matches in June. We have to skip this hurdle and go straight for CL.
david in sweden Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Please no, we don't have squad for Europa League - time and again the Noddy competition costs teams dearly, income is not worth it, we would really struggle in PL if we had to play in this silly competition and we would be playing competitive matches in June. We have to skip this hurdle and go straight for CL. OK ...we'll wait two years then ....
Saint Without a Halo Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 (edited) What is more realistic, relegation or 10th? http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html Relegation now only 0.3% probable Whilst 10th place is now up to 15% probable! So the answers is 10th place is now 50 times more likely as an outcome than relegation! lets look up methinks! Edited 7 April, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo
Patrick Bateman Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Will I still be ridiculed for suggesting it ? A little, it's not impossible, but there is a bit of a gap between 11th and 10th. West Ham have 2 games in hand, Fulham have 2 games in hand and we need to play Spurs and Swansea away. I'd take 11th - if the season ended up, we'd all be more than happy. What's the prize fund this year for 11th? What's the difference between placings, anyone know?
Saint Without a Halo Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton_Points.html Interesting points graph just look at the change in angle the 3 back to back wins was given us!
Olallana Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 A little, it's not impossible, but there is a bit of a gap between 11th and 10th. West Ham have 2 games in hand, Fulham have 2 games in hand and we need to play Spurs and Swansea away. I'd take 11th - if the season ended up, we'd all be more than happy. What's the prize fund this year for 11th? What's the difference between placings, anyone know? Last season every position was about £800k difference and 10th placed West Brom got £8.3m.
SaintBobby Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Bookies make us about 66/1 to be relegated and about 2/1 to finish in the top 10. So if they are right, the latter is unlikely but not very unlikely.
Micky Posted 7 April, 2013 Posted 7 April, 2013 Still don't see it myself - but so long as relegation is out of the way, don't care where we finish now.
Saint Without a Halo Posted 8 April, 2013 Posted 8 April, 2013 Still don't see it myself - but so long as relegation is out of the way, don't care where we finish now. The last round of matches was very good to us apart from us only Villa and Newcastle won from the teams in 6th place down to 20th!
Joensuu Posted 8 April, 2013 Posted 8 April, 2013 Even if we don't pick up another point this season, it looks like we'd still have a 64.5% chance of staying up. http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?44189-Top-ten Under Pochettino we've averaged 1.5 points per game. If we maintain that over the remaining 6 games we'd finish on 46 points. This would see us probably finish in 11th place (42%), with approximately 1 chance in 4 of finishing 10th (and similar odds for finishing 12th). As such, we'd need to improve upon Pochettino's average to make a 10th place finish likely.
KelvinsRightGlove Posted 8 April, 2013 Posted 8 April, 2013 We're closer (in points terms) to 9th than we are relegation
Patrick Bateman Posted 8 April, 2013 Posted 8 April, 2013 Last season every position was about £800k difference and 10th placed West Brom got £8.3m. Thanks
Matthew Le God Posted 14 April, 2013 Posted 14 April, 2013 A win next week could see us 9th Only if we win by 4 goals.
Saint Without a Halo Posted 14 April, 2013 Posted 14 April, 2013 (edited) Even if we don't pick up another point this season, it looks like we'd still have a 64.5% chance of staying up. http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?44189-Top-ten Under Pochettino we've averaged 1.5 points per game. If we maintain that over the remaining 6 games we'd finish on 46 points. This would see us probably finish in 11th place (42%), with approximately 1 chance in 4 of finishing 10th (and similar odds for finishing 12th). As such, we'd need to improve upon Pochettino's average to make a 10th place finish likely. After todays matches a finish with 46 (8 from last 5) points would see us with a 79% chance of 11th or better and 36% chance of 10th or better most probable position as of today remains 12th and we have an 80% chance of finishing 10th to 14th. relegation is 0.2% chance only or 500 to 1 now Even if we lose all our last 5 matches our survival chances are still 86% or just above 7 to 1 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html Edited 14 April, 2013 by Saint Without a Halo
melmacian_saint Posted 15 April, 2013 Posted 15 April, 2013 We need a win at Swansea if this is even being spoken about in the changing room.
brett24 Posted 15 April, 2013 Posted 15 April, 2013 Just need that one more win to make us safe and then we can think about finishing in the top half! Really hope we get it this weekend at Swansea rather than dragging it out to the last game of the season against Stoke. I can see us beating Swansea, beating West Brom, losing at Sunderland, draw at Spurs and losing to Stoke (if they need to win) if they are safe we will win.
Saint Without a Halo Posted 20 April, 2013 Posted 20 April, 2013 22% chance of 10 or better and 0.07% chance left of relegation after todays results i.e 300 times more likely to be 10th or better than relegated http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html
ludgershallsaint Posted 20 April, 2013 Posted 20 April, 2013 Looking at the fixtures next week I wouldn't be at all surprised to see us in 10th at 5pm next Saturday. It will probably be difficult to hold on to it after that with 2 of the last 3 away.
studentsaint Posted 20 April, 2013 Posted 20 April, 2013 I think we will make our first appearance this season in the top half come 5pm next Saturday.
Colinjb Posted 20 April, 2013 Posted 20 April, 2013 It is possible, but I still don't think we should be too greedy. Our mission this season has been accomplished.
KK the 2nd Posted 20 April, 2013 Posted 20 April, 2013 Odds against - around 9/4 - so with the bookies margins taken out I reckon about a 20 to 25% chance of achieving this. Would be great if we could though ...
saints_is_the_south Posted 21 April, 2013 Posted 21 April, 2013 Next weekend Fulham are away to Everton, Swansea away to Chelsea and West Ham away to Man City. With a win against West Brom, we will almost certainly move into the top half. The challenge over the remaining 3 games after that will be to stay there.
The Kraken Posted 21 April, 2013 Posted 21 April, 2013 To finish top ten we'll need to topple our "mid-range clubs" hoodoo. Against the current top 7 in the PL we've won 3 games. Against the bottom 6 sides we've won 6 games. Against the 7 mid-table clubs we've won zero games.
Saint Without a Halo Posted 21 April, 2013 Posted 21 April, 2013 Odds against - around 9/4 - so with the bookies margins taken out I reckon about a 20 to 25% chance of achieving this. Would be great if we could though ... spot on 20% on here http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html
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