Are saints safe??

[BallBoy]

Safe? No way.

 

4 points off the bottom 3 and 21 to play for. The maths is not difficult.

 

Having said that we are in a very good position IF we maintain our form of the last 2 games. I think this weekend could be pivotal for the reasons mentioned above but nerves and complacency do strange things.

[cambsaint]

Mathematically No

Logically Yes

Based on goal difference definitely safe

However 50 plus years of watching Saints has taught me that anything can happen!

[KK the 2nd]

Anyone feeling wimpy and nervous could "hedge" these nerves by a bet on Saints being relegated at current prices or 22/1 at Ladbrokes or 28/1 on Betfair.

 

If you really think we're still in the sh* t then there's a way out but come on the bookies know what's what.

 

I, for one, am looking up the table and at what could be a tasty double on a bet placed before the season started on Pompey for relegation at 5/1 and Saints for a top 10 finish at 10/1 ... £1320 for £20 if this comes off!

[Professor]

Safe No, but likely to go down, also No. With 2 clubs as good as done for there is only 1 relegation spot to argue over and logically, all the teams below us are worse placed. All six teams in positions 13 to 18 have to get above Southampton for us to be relegated. Not impossible, but extremely improbable.

[Tamesaint]

Anyone feeling wimpy and nervous could "hedge" these nerves by a bet on Saints being relegated at current prices or 22/1 at Ladbrokes or 28/1 on Betfair.

 

If you really think we're still in the sh* t then there's a way out but come on the bookies know what's what.

 

I, for one, am looking up the table and at what could be a tasty double on a bet placed before the season started on Pompey for relegation at 5/1 and Saints for a top 10 finish at 10/1 ... £1320 for £20 if this comes off!

 

I have exactly the same double as you -but with a tenner not £20. We have to look upwards not down.

[Saints boy in Leeds]

i say YES

 

1) We are playing very well

2) The form of JROD, Lambert, Spider, Shaw, Yoshi

3) We have a winning mentality

4) Worse teams than us below us

5) We have an easy run-in

 

 

This, apart from the easy run in entry, yes the best run in out of teams around us, no because there's no easy games in the PL, I think if we beat Reading on Sat then a couple of draws will be enough.

[scotty]

This, apart from the easy run in entry, yes the best run in out of teams around us, no because there's no easy games in the PL, I think if we beat Reading on Sat then a couple of draws will be enough.

 

If we beat Reading, I'll believe we are as good as safe. And I think we will beat them comfortably, by two or three goals.

 

(sits back and hopes that statement doesnt come back to haunt him.....)

[Saint_Tony]

Can't see us getting a result at Reading, think it'll still go to the last day. Still, assuming QPR and Reading are gone, we'd have to have a worse run of results than 6 other teams to go down now, difficult to see that happening, and the odds reflect that. Got a decent wager on Reading on Saturday though, 9/4 is a big price

 

Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk 2

[BlakeySFC]

God no.

 

We're still going down, the loss to Reading this Saturday will be the start of a downward slide.

[whelk]

Is there going to be another post when we are mathematically safe so all those saying 'not until we are mathematically safe' can post yes?

Saying we are not until we are is not really understanding the point of the post

 

What was the question again? Oh yes although form changes hence I never beat the bstrd bookies

[Danish Saint]

Have seen too bloody many Great Escapes to feel anything but safe at the end of a season....

 

That said, I have a good feeling about Pochettino not letting anyone rest before the final whistle of the last game.

[hutch]

If we were 4 points clear in 17^th I might be a bit concerned, but six out of the eight teams below us in the league will have to preform better than us in the run-in. It's possible, but very very unlikely.

[Suomi Saint]

Of course we are not safe - far from it. In this game all it takes is a dodgy refereeing decision, defensive mistake, or profligate finishing, and you lose 0-1. The confidence takes a hit, you look over your shoulder, and then you lose the next one. Cork or Morgan or Luke might even get injured. Wigan are capable of going on a winning streak, and Herr Fascist might even shake Sunderland from their slumber. 40 points is the minimum, which means 6 from 7. Not easy when everyone is fighting for 90 million quid. If we beat Reading then safety is probably a near certainty. Lose and we are right back in it.

[georgeweahscousin]

Win on Saturday and we will probably only need another point from the remaining games.....

[ericb]

I've thought we've been safe for a good month or so now so definitely yes. Not really sure what the worry is to be honest, in fact i think the geordies are in more danger than us and i bet they aren't thinking they'll go down.

[studentsaint]

Even if saints stoke and Qpr win this weekend I'd still say no. Would be a perfect weekend but even then only 7 points. I just think we are due a bad week of results, not had one in a while.

[Hokie]

An easy way to look at it? Assuming QPR and Reading are gone, all 6 teams below us must do better than us for Saints to go down. Assigning 50/50 odds to each team makes the Saints chance of going down now 1/2^6 or 1.6 %. The actual odds on say Villa bettering us are nowhere near 50/50.

 

Guaranteed safe? No. But the bookies odds are taking the p***.

[trousers]

Just watched the Adkins pre-match press conference and he was asked at the end: "Do you think Southampton will stay up?". His answer...."yes, they'll finish in the top ten"

[SaintBobby]

Anyone feeling wimpy and nervous could "hedge" these nerves by a bet on Saints being relegated at current prices or 22/1 at Ladbrokes or 28/1 on Betfair.

 

If you really think we're still in the sh* t then there's a way out but come on the bookies know what's what.

 

I, for one, am looking up the table and at what could be a tasty double on a bet placed before the season started on Pompey for relegation at 5/1 and Saints for a top 10 finish at 10/1 ... £1320 for £20 if this comes off!

 

That's an amazing bet - congrats.

 

If I were you, I'd lay some of it off. You can't get any meaningful odds on Pompey being relegated now and Saints are now 7/2 to finish in the top half - so your 60/1 bet is now effectively a 7/2 chance.

[Saint Garrett]

God no.

 

We're still going down, the loss to Reading this Saturday will be the start of a downward slide.

 

I've never really noticed you being so negative apart from the last few weeks ?! Don't get it.

[CaneNero]

No not yet, if we win at Reading I would say so though.

 

This

[krissyboy31]

Although the Villa win was a bit of a spanner in the works, I'd say we are pretty safe now.

[Huffton]

So does anyone know the maths? What will make us mathematically safe? Has anyone gone down on 40 points before?

[St Chalet]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

[S-Clarke]

So does anyone know the maths? What will make us mathematically safe? Has anyone gone down on 40 points before?

 

West Ham went down on 42 or 44 a few years back, although that won't happen this year.

 

We're fine. Would say we need a maximum of 4 points from a possible 18 to make it completely secure, but reality wise I think we're already there.

[SaintBobby]

Our first season of "mid table mediocrity" in years.

 

And I'm delighted. We're basically safe now. The last game of the season may be crucial - but if so, it will be crucial for Stoke.

[Matthew Le God]

Our first season of "mid table mediocrity" in years.

 

First since...

 

2005/06 - The Harry Redknapp and George Burley 50/50 season - 12th in the Championship

 

Me that season watching Saints =

[Appy]

First since...

 

2005/06 - The Harry Redknapp and George Burley 50/50 season - 12th in the Championship

 

Bassett and Wise not counting there dear boy?

[Saint Without a Halo]

We should now focus upwards on the chance of a good finishing place and more money! It would have to be an extrordinairy turn of events for us to go down from here!

The probability is now 0.6% of going down 19% of finishing 11th 18% of finishing 12th and 14% of 10th so a 51% chance of finishing 10th to 12th

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

[doc oli]

We're too good now. This is the position our play has deserved all season. Partly thanks to NA, partly thanks to MP but mainly thanks to some talented young footballers.