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10th place finish?


simo

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Imo I think barring an exceptional run tenth is probably the highest we can expect to finish this season which with the start we had is quite good ! Anyone else think we could push a little higher ?

 

ha ha hahahahahahha ! hohohohohohoho.......arrrhhhhhh hahahahahah etc

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If we had beaten Newcastle and QPR we would be tenth, goal difference permitting. It was a perfectly reasonable prediction at the time.

 

It's really astonishingly easy to make predictions after something has happened. I reckon we will lose 4-2 at Newcastle and then get beaten 2-1 at home to QPR. Oh look at how clever I am everybody. I'm off to the bookmakers to place a bet, I'm sure they will give me good odds on a QPR away win. I'll be back with all my winnings in an hour.

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If we had beaten Newcastle and QPR we would be tenth, goal difference permitting. It was a perfectly reasonable prediction at the time.

 

It's really astonishingly easy to make predictions after something has happened. I reckon we will lose 4-2 at Newcastle and then get beaten 2-1 at home to QPR. Oh look at how clever I am everybody. I'm off to the bookmakers to place a bet, I'm sure they will give me good odds on a QPR away win. I'll be back with all my winnings in an hour.

 

Very clever.

 

Maybe you can go back and not act as if you know it all and that an opinion different to your own wasn't wrong.

 

QPR are dreadful, they've won 2 games all season.

 

Better make it three now, dreadful QPR.

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Very clever.

 

Maybe you can go back and not act as if you know it all and that an opinion different to your own wasn't wrong.

 

Better make it three now, dreadful QPR.

 

So I was wrong was I? QPR were infact playing brilliantly and had won 8 games?

 

Opinions held in the past aren't wrong just because things change. I said we could finish 10th because 10th was a realistic target after beating Man City and being only a couple of wins behind 10th. If we'd won our last 2 we would be 10th, we didn't so we aren't. Now I don't think it is likely we will finish 10th as we've dropped 6 winnable points and haven't played anywhere near as well. I do however think we will stay up. If anyone like CB FRY, max or yourself want to dig up this thread in May if we're relegated and say, "OMG isn't Lighthouse stupid, I am so much cleverer than him!" then be my guest, I can't say that I'm all that bothered.

 

Making predictions which turn out to be incorrect doesn't make someone stupid. Personally I think it's a little bit sad dragging up threads posted in different circumstances and ridiculing people who dared to hold a different opinion to your own.

 

Mindlessly sticking to an opinion, despite changing circumstances and new evidence, that's what makes people a complete muppet.

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Opinions held in the past aren't wrong just because things change. I said we could finish 10th because 10th was a realistic target after beating Man City and being only a couple of wins behind 10th. If we'd won our last 2 we would be 10th, we didn't so we aren't. Now I don't think it is likely we will finish 10th as we've dropped 6 winnable points and haven't played anywhere near as well. I do however think we will stay up. If anyone like CB FRY, max or yourself want to dig up this thread in May if we're relegated and say, "OMG isn't Lighthouse stupid, I am so much cleverer than him!" then be my guest, I can't say that I'm all that bothered.

 

Making predictions which turn out to be incorrect doesn't make someone stupid. Personally I think it's a little bit sad dragging up threads posted in different circumstances and ridiculing people who dared to hold a different opinion to your own.

 

 

Conversely, if you are going to make a prediction, and post it on an internet message board - it is there to be commented on based on it's merits. Let's be honest - we are shyte and it was highly unlikely that we were, or indeed are, going to get as high as tenth. There are far too many people on here with rose tints on. Today is a major blow and perhaps all those 'european finish' poster might now have had a dose of realism. We are in a relegation dog fight (again) - we will do well to stay up this season. Unless we start to get some confidence and get our defence sorted, points are going to be hard to come by. My prediction is that we will be closer to 20th than to 10th.

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probability of each finishing place given we have 10 to play!

 

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

our chances of finishing 10th have decreased significantly given the last two results but as Lighthouse points out they were better two games ago!

 

It shows we currently have no chance of positions 1 to 9 all others are still possible but obviously with descending probabilities 16th is currently our most likely finish position at 22% probability and we have a 16.4% chance of finishing in the bottom 3. 10th place is still possible with a 2% probability down from 10% two weeks ago!

Edited by Saint Without a Halo
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So I was wrong was I? QPR were infact playing brilliantly and had won 8 games?

 

Opinions held in the past aren't wrong just because things change. I said we could finish 10th because 10th was a realistic target after beating Man City and being only a couple of wins behind 10th. If we'd won our last 2 we would be 10th, we didn't so we aren't. Now I don't think it is likely we will finish 10th as we've dropped 6 winnable points and haven't played anywhere near as well. I do however think we will stay up. If anyone like CB FRY, max or yourself want to dig up this thread in May if we're relegated and say, "OMG isn't Lighthouse stupid, I am so much cleverer than him!" then be my guest, I can't say that I'm all that bothered.

 

Making predictions which turn out to be incorrect doesn't make someone stupid. Personally I think it's a little bit sad dragging up threads posted in different circumstances and ridiculing people who dared to hold a different opinion to your own.

 

Mindlessly sticking to an opinion, despite changing circumstances and new evidence, that's what makes people a complete muppet.

 

Yeah it really looks that way.

 

I'm not sticking to an opinion at all - the fact I've said 'one game at a time' suggests that really, I'm keeping quite an open mind, if anything.

 

One win in six under Pochettino. Top ten form is it?

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So I was wrong was I? QPR were infact playing brilliantly and had won 8 games?

 

Opinions held in the past aren't wrong just because things change. I said we could finish 10th because 10th was a realistic target after beating Man City and being only a couple of wins behind 10th. If we'd won our last 2 we would be 10th, we didn't so we aren't. Now I don't think it is likely we will finish 10th as we've dropped 6 winnable points and haven't played anywhere near as well. I do however think we will stay up. If anyone like CB FRY, max or yourself want to dig up this thread in May if we're relegated and say, "OMG isn't Lighthouse stupid, I am so much cleverer than him!" then be my guest, I can't say that I'm all that bothered.

 

Making predictions which turn out to be incorrect doesn't make someone stupid. Personally I think it's a little bit sad dragging up threads posted in different circumstances and ridiculing people who dared to hold a different opinion to your own.

 

Mindlessly sticking to an opinion, despite changing circumstances and new evidence, that's what makes people a complete muppet.

 

There has been no new evidence.

 

We weren't going to finish tenth a couple of weeks back and we aren't now. The evidence of us being nowhere near tenth all season has not changed in the last fortnight.

 

All that has changed is your opinion.

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There has been no new evidence.

 

We weren't going to finish tenth a couple of weeks back and we aren't now. The evidence of us being nowhere near tenth all season has not changed in the last fortnight.

 

All that has changed is your opinion.

 

I think after beating the Champions is was fair to think that 10th place was a reasonable, best possible target. With a new manager in charge and the team playing well.

 

As it turns out our new genius manager was just piggy-backing on Adkins' good work and is in fact a clueless idiot.

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I think after beating the Champions is was fair to think that 10th place was a reasonable, best possible target. With a new manager in charge and the team playing well.

 

As it turns out our new genius manager was just piggy-backing on Adkins' good work and is in fact a clueless idiot.

 

Much as I liked Adkins I think you are being a bit harsh on MP he didnt ask for the job and 5 points from Everton Manu ManC Wigan Newcastle and QPR is probably a couple of points less than we would have wanted/expected but surely it is far too early to make the judgement you have!

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Much as I liked Adkins I think you are being a bit harsh on MP he didnt ask for the job and 5 points from Everton Manu ManC Wigan Newcastle and QPR is probably a couple of points less than we would have wanted/expected but surely it is far too early to make the judgement you have!

 

True, how we bounce back against Norwich will be a good indicator of how good he is. He's had his honeymoon period now it's time to show what he's made of.

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I think after beating the Champions is was fair to think that 10th place was a reasonable, best possible target. With a new manager in charge and the team playing well.

 

 

So reasonable it has been abandoned after two measly games.

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A comparison then.

 

Nigel Adkins' last six Premier League games

Chelsea 2 - 2 Southampton 1 point

Aston Villa 0 - 1 Southampton 4 points

Southampton 1 - 1 Arsenal 5 points

Stoke 3 - 3 Southampton 6 points

Fulham 1 - 1 Southampton 7 points

Southampton 0 - 1 Sunderland 7 points

 

Mauricio Pochettino's first six Premier League games

Southampton 1 - 2 QPR 0 points

Newcastle 4 - 2 Southampton 0 points

Southampton 3 - 1 Manchester City 3 points

Wigan 2 - 2 Southampton 4 points

Manchester United 2 - 1 Southampton 4 points

Southampton 0 - 0 Everton 5 points

 

Two points worse off, Pochettino has had one or two tougher fixtures I grant you, but points wise it's not an improvement. I wouldn't consider him a 'tactical genius' as others have, that is for certain. I definitely wouldn't have us down as top ten material.

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So reasonable it has been abandoned after two measly games.

 

Abandonned? No. Looking much less likely? Yes

 

Diamond - Most of the predictions of being top 10 material were made before the Newcastle and QPR defeats. We had just outplayed Everton, Man Utd, Wigan and Man City. There really was no sensible reason to believe we couldn't win the last 2 and be level with Fulham in 10th this evening.

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Abandonned? No. Looking much less likely? Yes

 

Diamond - Most of the predictions of being top 10 material were made before the Newcastle and QPR defeats. We had just outplayed Everton, Man Utd, Wigan and Man City. There really was no sensible reason to believe we couldn't win the last 2 and be level with Fulham in 10th this evening.

 

and those of us with a more realistic outlook didn't get carried away in a frenzy of excitment with a couple of decent performances and hailed MP a tactical genius who waved his magic wand and turned relegation contenders into top half team over night. We suggested that we wouldn't finish 10th and that we would probably finish in one of the positions that we had occupied for most for the season.

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So reasonable it has been abandoned after two measly games.

 

It's just less likely. If we had won yesterday (not beyond the realms of fantasy that we could beat the Prem's worst side at home - even in your miserable world) we would be 3 points of 10th place).

 

Of course making up a 3 point gap over a period of 10 games is just impossible, could never happen.

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Abandonned? No. Looking much less likely? Yes

 

Diamond - Most of the predictions of being top 10 material were made before the Newcastle and QPR defeats. We had just outplayed Everton, Man Utd, Wigan and Man City. There really was no sensible reason to believe we couldn't win the last 2 and be level with Fulham in 10th this evening.

 

 

 

There were lots of sensible reasons why we wouldn't win both games. Three wins in a row for a team in a relegation scrap is pretty rare and for you to glibly expect it is just naive.

 

We've seen plenty of "sensible reasons" why we aint tenth played out over the last two games.

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Abandonned? No. Looking much less likely? Yes

 

Diamond - Most of the predictions of being top 10 material were made before the Newcastle and QPR defeats. We had just outplayed Everton, Man Utd, Wigan and Man City. There really was no sensible reason to believe we couldn't win the last 2 and be level with Fulham in 10th this evening.

 

Lighthouse - A handful of good performances, which ultimately got us five points, are probably not enough to predict a tenth placed finish. We once won three in a row under Mark Wotte, that never made us Championship title contenders. We were relegated in fact....

 

and those of us with a more realistic outlook didn't get carried away in a frenzy of excitment with a couple of decent performances and hailed MP a tactical genius who waved his magic wand and turned relegation contenders into top half team over night. We suggested that we wouldn't finish 10th and that we would probably finish in one of the positions that we had occupied for most for the season.

 

I agree with Mr. Turkish.

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There were lots of sensible reasons why we wouldn't win both games. Three wins in a row for a team in a relegation scrap is pretty rare and for you to glibly expect it is just naive.

 

We've seen plenty of "sensible reasons" why we aint tenth played out over the last two games.

 

Generally it's what is known as, "improvement." A team in a relegation fight wins 3 games in a row, then they aren't in a relegation fight. They're mid table.

 

Around this time last season Wigan had won one game in 15. Then they won 7 out of their remaining 9 games and Bingo. Not in a relegation fight. Yes it's rare but it's something we should aspire towards. We have the tallent in the squad to be better than we are.

 

10th was a realistic target whether you believed it was likely or not.

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Generally it's what is known as, "improvement." A team in a relegation fight wins 3 games in a row, then they aren't in a relegation fight. They're mid table.

 

Around this time last season Wigan had won one game in 15. Then they won 7 out of their remaining 9 games and Bingo. Not in a relegation fight. Yes it's rare but it's something we should aspire towards. We have the tallent in the squad to be better than we are.

 

10th was a realistic target whether you believed it was likely or not.

 

Seven wins out of nine was great. Champions League form no less. Got Wigan to tent..th..oh, hang on. Fifteenth. Great example. Well done.

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Seven wins out of nine was great. Champions League form no less. Got Wigan to tent..th..oh, hang on. Fifteenth. Great example. Well done.

 

Why do you think pretending to be thick will help your argument? They only made it up to 15th because they were hopeless before then. Far worse than we are now.

 

Before those 7 wins, Wigan had 22 points from 29 games.

Before the Newcastle game we had 27 points from 26 games.

 

Even if we get spanked by Norich, we still have 5 more points than they had before their amazing run. If Wigan had those 5 points more last season they'd have finished... yep you guessed it. Tenth!

 

I'm done with this argument, there's more to life than pretending not to understand things on the internet in some obscure attempt to look clever.

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Why do you think pretending to be thick will help your argument? They only made it up to 15th because they were hopeless before then. Far worse than we are now.

 

Before those 7 wins, Wigan had 22 points from 29 games.

Before the Newcastle game we had 27 points from 26 games.

 

Even if we get spanked by Norich, we still have 5 more points than they had before their amazing run. If Wigan had those 5 points more last season they'd have finished... yep you guessed it. Tenth!

 

I'm done with this argument, there's more to life than pretending not to understand things on the internet in some obscure attempt to look clever.

 

So your "reasonable" prediction is based on the assumption that Saints would go on a Wigan style mega run winning pretty much every game until the end of the season.

 

Right. Now I get it. And here's silly old me suggesting you were being fanciful. Well, don't I look the chump.

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The hope and belief that this team can do it, despite recent results, is keeping it alive. Keep the faith.

 

Eighth isn't mathematically impossible, right?

 

It's good to have ambition. Cortese has the ambition and he'll expect to see us finish as high as possible. We should match that ambition and keep on believing.

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Realistic ambition, nothing wrong with that, we should be a top league side but we shall never be a top top side unless huge huge investment is put into us falsely elevates our position, they are the facts.

 

How is it "false" if that is our actual position ? Man City were a third tier side 13 years ago, is their top 2 position "false" ? Man U were just a popular middling to decent top tier side for 20 years in my childhood and couldn't win the league in 26 years, and before all this Premier League nonsense started we were regularly a top half top level team - where do you draw the line ?

 

We were bought by a bloke who had access to £2.6 billion IIRC, the Chairman's target is European football, he's achieved everything else he's wanted to so far so you have to assume he's got the means to get us there if needed.

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How is it "false" if that is our actual position ? Man City were a third tier side 13 years ago, is their top 2 position "false" ? Man U were just a popular middling to decent top tier side for 20 years in my childhood and couldn't win the league in 26 years, and before all this Premier League nonsense started we were regularly a top half top level team - where do you draw the line ?

 

We were bought by a bloke who had access to £2.6 billion IIRC, the Chairman's target is European football, he's achieved everything else he's wanted to so far so you have to assume he's got the means to get us there if needed.

 

I agree entirely. He has not only acieved everything he wanted, he even acieved it ahead of schedule.

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I am disappointed that if we win all of our last 9 matches there's only a 2% chance of us coming 10th.

 

Although there's a 52% chance of coming 8th :D

 

Ok, so looking at that, in order to have a better than 50% chance of coming 10th OR ABOVE, we need to have 48 points. That's 6 wins and 2 draws. I don't think that's very likely really.

 

With SIX WINS there's only a 1/5 likelihood of finishing 10th or above. That's not really very good odds.

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I am disappointed that if we win all of our last 9 matches there's only a 2% chance of us coming 10th.

 

Although there's a 52% chance of coming 8th :D

 

Ok, so looking at that, in order to have a better than 50% chance of coming 10th OR ABOVE, we need to have 48 points. That's 6 wins and 2 draws. I don't think that's very likely really.

 

With SIX WINS there's only a 1/5 likelihood of finishing 10th or above. That's not really very good odds.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html,

 

Post yesterday our chances of finishing 10th have doubled to 4% our chances of relegation have gone down to just 6% most likely finish place is still 16th with 18% also 15th, 14th and 13th are now much more likely! at 17%, 14% and 12% respectively. by the way 9th is now possible at just 1%.

 

As of now Win 4 draw 4 of the last 8 and and we have a 48% chance of 10th or better

4 more points and we then have a better than even chance of staying up. A couple more wins and 10th will be more likely than relegation!

 

Onwards and upwards!

Edited by Saint Without a Halo
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html,

 

Post yesterday our chances of finishing 10th have doubled to 4% our chances of relegation have gone down to just 6% most likely finish place is still 16th with 18% also 15th, 14th and 13th are now much more likely! at 17%, 14% and 12% respectively. by the way 9th is now possible at just 1%.

 

4 more points and we then have a better than even chance of staying up. A couple more wins and 10th will be more likely than relegation!

 

Onwards and upwards!

 

Basically that says if we win 2 more games, then we'll stay up. Have to be pretty disasterous in the rest of the games to win 2 and go down. Hopefully we'll finish around 13th/14th. Maybe other 'safe' teams may tail off a bit at the end of the season, and we'll still have the focused mentality.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Not even god can stop the Southampton juggernaut.

 

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

 

10th place now more than 4 times more likely than relegation!

 

Now 9% chance of 10th and only 2% chance of going down! most likely finish place is 12th and 13th at 16% each probability!

 

how things change the possible is slowly becoming more probable!

Edited by Saint Without a Halo
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