anothersaintinsouthsea Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 (edited) OK, thought I'd get in early with this now that we have a results predictor thread. Below are the points totals for teams being relegated in the last ten years and those teams that just avoided relegation: 2011/12: 16th - 38pts, 17th - 37pts, 18th - 36pts, 19th - 31pts, 20th - 25pts. 2010/11: 16th - 42pts, 17th - 40pts, 18th - 39pts, 19th - 39pts, 20th - 33pts. 2009/10: 16th - 36pts, 17th - 35pts, 18th - 30pts, 19th - 30pts, 20th Pompey - 28pts. *added back their deduction 2008/09: 16th - 36pts, 17th - 35pts, 18th - 34pts, 19th - 32pts, 20th - 32pts. 2007/08: 16th - 37pts, 17th - 36pts, 18th - 36pts, 19th - 35pts, 20th - 11pts. Derby GD of -22 kept Fulham up 2006/07: 16th - 39pts, 17th - 38pts, 18th - 38pts, 19th - 34pts, 20th - 28pts. GD of -22 kept Wigan up 2005/06: 16th - 42pts, 17th - 38pts, 18th - 34pts, 19th - 30pts, 20th - 15pts. 2004/05: 16th - 39pts, 17th - 34pts, 18th - 33pts, 19th - 33pts, 20th - 32pts. Saints FFS 2003/04: 16th - 41pts, 17th - 39pts, 18th - 33pts, 19th - 33pts, 20th - 33pts. 2002/03: 16th - 45pts, 17th - 44pts, 18th - 42pts, 19th - 26pts, 20th - 19pts. Wet Spam down with 42pts! So the lowest points total for survival in 10 years has been 34 points, think we'll need at least 40 to be very confident. We're on 24 pts with 13 games left, think we need to win at least 4 of those and pick up a few draws. Edited 7 February, 2013 by anothersaintinsouthsea
Saint Garrett Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 Won't be confident until it's mathmatically confirmed, but my guestimate would be around 36/37 would be enough.
saints-cris Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 I think just below 40. 4 wins and a couple of draws and I think we'll be okay, just.
tajjuk Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 Just done the predictor and had us with home wins against West Ham, QPR, WBA, Stoke and away draws a Newcastle, Reading, Norwich and at home to Liverpool for 40 points.
jamesfp1 Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 I think just below 40. 4 wins and a couple of draws and I think we'll be okay, just. Yep
St Lej Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 38 points this season will be enough IMO. You only have to look at the current points per games ratio of the team in 18th to work out that the cut-off point is not going to increase so dramatically that a point per game total at the season's end will send you down.
rshephard3 Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 Just did predictor and had it very tight on teams around 38 points. Actually had us staying up on 39 points with someone dropping on goal difference with 38. It predicted a cracking last day of the season.
Hamilton Saint Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 Makes sense to calculate the mean (average). 376/10 = 37.6 So 38 points should do it. (Should - but not guaranteed, of course.)
Thedelldays Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 this is a poor league this year compared to others...will be a lower amount than usual to stay up.. maybe 35... I think 37 will see us safe...but we have to start winning
Olallana Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 I believe we weill be fine on our 45 points at the end of the season.... There, I said it....let the bashing begin....
Window Cleaner Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 this is a poor league this year compared to others...will be a lower amount than usual to stay up.. maybe 35... I think 37 will see us safe...but we have to start winning It's not always wins that decide relegation, more defeats. Wigan stayed up fairly easily in the Z010/11 season with only 9 wins but they also only lost 14 times. We're currently only on 11 defeats I think,most of them from the start of the season. So if we can managed to lose only 3 more we might well be able to stay up with only 3 more wins. That would give us something like 8 wins,16 draws and 14 defeats for 40 points. Still wins would be better and less nerve racking.
tajjuk Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 It predicted a cracking last day of the season. QPR away Liverpool Norwich away at Man City Reading away to West Ham Wigan face Villa at home and we have a home game at Stoke. If it does go to the last day we probably have the best fixture. Mid table team at home, who little to play for and don't travel that well.
david in sweden Posted 7 February, 2013 Posted 7 February, 2013 OK, thought I'd get in early with this now that we have a results predictor thread. Below are the points totals for teams being relegated in the last ten years and those teams that just avoided relegation: 2011/12: 16th - 38pts, 17th - 37pts, 18th - 36pts, 19th - 31pts, 20th - 25pts. 2010/11: 16th - 42pts, 17th - 40pts, 18th - 39pts, 19th - 39pts, 20th - 33pts. 2009/10: 16th - 36pts, 17th - 35pts, 18th - 30pts, 19th - 30pts, 20th Pompey - 28pts. *added back their deduction 2008/09: 16th - 36pts, 17th - 35pts, 18th - 34pts, 19th - 32pts, 20th - 32pts. 2007/08: 16th - 37pts, 17th - 36pts, 18th - 36pts, 19th - 35pts, 20th - 11pts. Derby GD of -22 kept Fulham up 2006/07: 16th - 39pts, 17th - 38pts, 18th - 38pts, 19th - 34pts, 20th - 28pts. GD of -22 kept Wigan up 2005/06: 16th - 42pts, 17th - 38pts, 18th - 34pts, 19th - 30pts, 20th - 15pts. 2004/05: 16th - 39pts, 17th - 34pts, 18th - 33pts, 19th - 33pts, 20th - 32pts. Saints FFS 2003/04: 16th - 41pts, 17th - 39pts, 18th - 33pts, 19th - 33pts, 20th - 33pts. 2002/03: 16th - 45pts, 17th - 44pts, 18th - 42pts, 19th - 26pts, 20th - 19pts. Wet Spam down with 42pts! So the lowest points total for survival in 10 years has been 34 points, think we'll need at least 40 to be very confident. We're on 24 pts with 13 games left, think we need to win at least 4 of those and pick up a few draws. I like your stats. "southsea", .....but ON AVERAGE - one point per game has often been the benchmark for survival ....as you pointed out so well...it's a rare exception for a side with 39+ to go down, and yet clubs have survived ..on 34 !
Saint Fan CaM Posted 8 February, 2013 Posted 8 February, 2013 I think 39 this season and we'll have enough points to cross the line - just.
DT Posted 8 February, 2013 Posted 8 February, 2013 I think it will be very tight indeed. We'll get 38 and stay up on last day. A good transfer window and we'd have been well clear but injuries will cost us.
110_Persaint Posted 8 February, 2013 Posted 8 February, 2013 this is a poor league this year compared to others...will be a lower amount than usual to stay up.. maybe 35... I think 37 will see us safe...but we have to start winning Do you arrive to that conclusion based solely on the fact that fewer points are needed to stay up? Quite the opposite in my view - this proves that the table is so tight after say 6th or 7th that any team can beat any team. It's more competitive and far more stronger than seasons past. Teams like Swansea, West Brom and Stoke at times have been nothing short of brilliant. The likes of them and other mid-table teams can give ANY non-champions league team across the continent a run for their money IMO. If such a poor league this year, why are a pretty decent team such as ourselves doing really bad?
Thedelldays Posted 8 February, 2013 Posted 8 February, 2013 I came to that conclusion with the general poor standard of football The fact teams have forgotten how to defend This is probably the poorest united side in years running away with the league The teams at the bottom are utterly terrible yet none are cut adrift really..(villa ffs) Add the pish poor performance in Europe compares to years gone by WBA are able to lose about 10 in a row and stay top half.
Forester Posted 8 February, 2013 Posted 8 February, 2013 I came to that conclusion with the general poor standard of football The fact teams have forgotten how to defend This is probably the poorest united side in years running away with the league The teams at the bottom are utterly terrible yet none are cut adrift really..(villa ffs) Add the pish poor performance in Europe compares to years gone by WBA are able to lose about 10 in a row and stay top half. Have to say I disagree. If you compare the bottom 4 when we last went down (WBA, Norwich and Palace) those sides were massively weaker than anything I've seen this year. Telfer, Jakobsen, Delap, Ormerod, etc would not hold a candle to our current team in my opinion
benjii Posted 8 February, 2013 Posted 8 February, 2013 Anyway, whether it's weaker or stronger (I happen to think the depth is stronger but the very top has got progressively worse over the last few years), I think 35 points will be enough to stay up.
The9 Posted 8 February, 2013 Posted 8 February, 2013 That probability site I usually reference said 43pts would be 100% safe (after taking into consideration the 15-ish games played by then), so 43 please. Realistically I can't see us getting more than 40 though.
Thedelldays Posted 8 February, 2013 Posted 8 February, 2013 Have to say I disagree. If you compare the bottom 4 when we last went down (WBA, Norwich and Palace) those sides were massively weaker than anything I've seen this year. Telfer, Jakobsen, Delap, Ormerod, etc would not hold a candle to our current team in my opinion You are comparing the league to the 2004/2005 season That was when Henry, Ronaldo WTO were here. I am saying I think the league is poorer than it has in the last few years or so.
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