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Remaining Fixtures for bottom teams...

Saint Garrett

By Saint Garrett
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pedg

pedg

Posted
Posted

I think this thread needs to be unstuck and replaced with one called "Remaining Fixtures for Teams Between 9th and 12th".

Chewy

Chewy

Posted
Posted

I can't see how all of the teams below us down to qpr will collectively get above 37 points. I think we are pretty much there. Would love to seal it against west ham, though. And for those still worried, do you not remember what it was like for most of the 90s? This is a walk in the park!

Saint Without a Halo

Saint Without a Halo

Posted
Posted
I think those QPR fans are no more deluded than you are if you think Stoke have any chance of going down. They would have to lose pretty much every single game from here on in. Not going to happen.

 

 

Err Stoke looking a bit ropey now having not won in 7 you may regret that quote!

Dalek2003

Dalek2003

Posted
Posted
I can't see how all of the teams below us down to qpr will collectively get above 37 points. I think we are pretty much there. Would love to seal it against west ham, though. And for those still worried, do you not remember what it was like for most of the 90s? This is a walk in the park!

 

Rubbish ! We need another 6 points and it will go all the way.

CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted
Rubbish ! We need another 6 points and it will go all the way.

 

 

 

Is this going to be your new comedy-troll "thing"?

 

Pretending you think we need 43 points to stay up.

 

Oh, our aching sides, this is nearly as rib tickling as "we'll finish 17th" , "yo-yo strategy" and your other smash-hit feeble routines.

 

Roll on next season for the next one. We can hardly wait.

The Kraken

The Kraken

Posted
Posted
Is this going to be your new comedy-troll "thing"?

 

Pretending you think we need 43 points to stay up.

 

Oh, our aching sides, this is nearly as rib tickling as "we'll finish 17th" , "yo-yo strategy" and your other smash-hit feeble routines.

 

Roll on next season for the next one. We can hardly wait.

 

:lol::lol::lol:

Saint Without a Halo

Saint Without a Halo

Posted
Posted
Rubbish ! We need another 6 points and it will go all the way.

 

If you look at any form table throughout the season there are almost always at least 3 teams who get 4 points or less! the last 6 games will be no different so the chances of us dropping into the last 3 are negligable ( currently around 0.3% on the Monte Carlo model of stastical outcomes) given most of the teams likely to get 4 or less points are already below us and our GD is worth another point too! We can concievably lose every match now and still have a better than 50% chance of survival

a maximum of 2 more points is needed to make absolutely sure, could even be less

Time to look up not down!

Chewy

Chewy

Posted
Posted
Rubbish ! We need another 6 points and it will go all the way.

 

We can revisit at the end of the season, 38 points will be enough to survive is my definite prediction. You really think it needs 43?

Dalek2003

Dalek2003

Posted
Posted
Is this going to be your new comedy-troll "thing"?

 

Pretending you think we need 43 points to stay up.

 

Oh, our aching sides, this is nearly as rib tickling as "we'll finish 17th" , "yo-yo strategy" and your other smash-hit feeble routines.

 

Roll on next season for the next one. We can hardly wait.

 

Yes I think we will need 43 points, don't see what is wrong with that.

 

The tone of your post suggests that you are sulking because no one takes you seriously any more. Let's face it, you are a busted flush !

Dalek2003

Dalek2003

Posted
Posted
If you look at any form table throughout the season there are almost always at least 3 teams who get 4 points or less! the last 6 games will be no different so the chances of us dropping into the last 3 are negligable ( currently around 0.3% on the Monte Carlo model of stastical outcomes) given most of the teams likely to get 4 or less points are already below us and our GD is worth another point too! We can concievably lose every match now and still have a better than 50% chance of survival

a maximum of 2 more points is needed to make absolutely sure, could even be less

Time to look up not down!

 

Time will tell and I am pretty sure that the management at SFC will not be as complacent as yourself and some other posters....thankfully.

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted
Is this going to be your new comedy-troll "thing"?

 

Pretending you think we need 43 points to stay up.

 

Oh, our aching sides, this is nearly as rib tickling as "we'll finish 17th" , "yo-yo strategy" and your other smash-hit feeble routines.

 

Roll on next season for the next one. We can hardly wait.

 

This.

 

Very much this.

 

Used to be cute and amusing. Now it's just eye-rollingly dull.

Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

Posted
Posted (edited)
Yes I think we will need 43 points, don't see what is wrong with that.

 

The tone of your post suggests that you are sulking because no one takes you seriously any more. Let's face it, you are a busted flush !

 

 

How can we possibly need 43 points? I think the games between bottom 6 sides actually rule that out as a mathematical

impossibility. QPR can only get 42,Reading 41 and with the Wigan-Villa, Newcastle-Sunderland and Sunderland-Villa games I don't

think they can all get 42 points bearing in mind that we have at present a vastly superior GD.

Edited by Window Cleaner
  • 2 weeks later...
Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

Posted
Posted (edited)
Brilliant!

 

and when we win the next two he'll still be trolling that we need yet more points,even though Wigan and Villa will still be on the same totals.

 

Relegation PL 2012/13= Reading,QPR and one of Villa/Wigan. All the rest can start packing for their hols.

Edited by Window Cleaner
Saint Garrett

Saint Garrett

Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

Quite funny that he seems to be taking any opportunity to try and defend his team. There is a reason why everyone says you play awful football and play like thugs, and thats not because you actually play great football on the floor. Pr!ck. Hoof.

shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted (edited)
Quite funny that he seems to be taking any opportunity to try and defend his team. There is a reason why everyone says you play awful football and play like thugs, and thats not because you actually play great football on the floor. Pr!ck. Hoof.

 

Exactly. The whole media and country are conspiring against sam. Their fans are getting so precious about the taunts "Did you see the football we played against Man U?" they quiver. For a fanbase that's been starved football, I guess even Maccy Ds feels like a Michelin 3 star meal. Bless their little essex cotton socks.

Edited by shurlock
The9

The9

Posted
Posted
How can we possibly need 43 points? I think the games between bottom 6 sides actually rule that out as a mathematical

impossibility. QPR can only get 42,Reading 41 and with the Wigan-Villa, Newcastle-Sunderland and Sunderland-Villa games I don't

think they can all get 42 points bearing in mind that we have at present a vastly superior GD.

 

As of today, 44 points is mathematical safety, whilst 43 only sees us safe if one of the results is a win, as 5 draws leaves us with a miniscule possibility of relegation (under 0.05%).

 

But we could lose all 5 matches and we'd still only have a 14% chance of relegation.

shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted
As of today, 44 points is mathematical safety, whilst 43 only sees us safe if one of the results is a win, as 5 draws leaves us with a miniscule possibility of relegation (under 0.05%).

 

But we could lose all 5 matches and we'd still only have a 14% chance of relegation.

 

Not sure how the probabilities are calculated, whether teams final points score -and hence their final league position- are a function of their ppg.

But do struggling teams in the final few weeks historically outperform their average form over the season as every game becomes a cup final and other teams have less to play for?

david in sweden

david in sweden

Posted
Posted

well getting back to the original theme of the thread....

I think that Stoke and Sunderland have the toughest tasks, (unless De Canio starts Sund'land on a winning run)....then Stoke could be the third side to go down..

The9

The9

Posted
Posted (edited)
Not sure how the probabilities are calculated, whether teams final points score -and hence their final league position- are a function of their ppg.

But do struggling teams in the final few weeks historically outperform their average form over the season as every game becomes a cup final and other teams have less to play for?

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

 

The probability is based on a count of the 433million outcomes based on a specific model, but as well as a "weighted" model which is the one I've taken the probability from which reflects points scored and opposition faced already, there's also a 50/50 model, which, because it has no form factor at all, is just based on splitting the remaining results - that has us as 99% safe but needing 44 points (W1 D3 L1) for mathematical safety (specifically because it estimates the bottom sides will get more points than they have been getting).

 

Actually they explain it :

Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of winning the title, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.

To help flush out each team’s highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs. All the change columns are since the end of yesterday. The biggest movers up and down are in bold. The teams are ordered by their odds of winning the title (more interesting than their record.) Click on a team to see its big games and what if scenarios.

Edited by The9
Tony F

Tony F

Posted
Posted (edited)

Interesting weekend.... only Wigan and Newcastle from the bottom clutch (ie below us) are not playing each other!

Edited by Tony F
facts
Saint Garrett

Saint Garrett

Posted
  • Author
Posted
This has proved a superb thread over the past 8 weeks - kudos to the OP

 

Reading really did f*ck it with the fixtures that they had left when this thread was started, as did QPR. And it's interesting to read through again peoples reactions to each weekend! Who said the football fan was fickle ;)

Glasgow_Saint

Glasgow_Saint

Posted
Posted
Reading really did f*ck it with the fixtures that they had left when this thread was started, as did QPR. And it's interesting to read through again peoples reactions to each weekend! Who said the football fan was fickle ;)

 

just had a few lol moments reading pages 4,5 and 6

NewYorkSaint

NewYorkSaint

Posted
Posted

Great link, The9, thanks for that. Same site gives us just 20% chance of top 10 finish currently, though a win this w/e will boost that significantly... We'll probably need 47 points - a min of 2 wins and 2 draws to get there.

Glasgow_Saint

Glasgow_Saint

Posted
Posted
Games involving two relegation candidates are highlighted...I think it will be tight but we'll just edge it.

 

SOUTHAMPTON Fixtures - P34, GD-7, 39 points

April 27: West Brom (H)

May 4: Tottenham (A)

May 12: Sunderland (A)

May 19: Stoke (H)

 

NORWICH Fixtures - P34, GD -20, 38 points

April 27: Stoke (A)

May 4: Aston Villa (H)

May 12: West Brom (H)

May 19: Man City (A)

 

SUNDERLAND Fixtures - P34, GD-7, 37 points

April 27: Aston Villa (A)

May 4: Stoke (H)

May 12: Southampton (H)

May 19: Tottenham (A)

 

STOKE Fixtures - P34, GD-11, 37 points

April 27: Norwich (H)

May 4: Sunderland (A)[/i][/b]

May 12- Spurs (h)

May 19- Southampton (A)

 

NEWCASTLE Fixtures - P34, GD -17, 37 points

April 27: Liverpool (H)

May 4: West Ham (A)

May 12: QPR (A)

May 19: Arsenal (H)

 

ASTON VILLA Fixtures - P34, GD-27, 34 points

April 27 Sunderland (H)

May 4 Norwich (A)

May 12 Chelsea (H)

May 19 Wigan (A)

 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

WIGAN Fixtures - P33, GD-23, 31 points

April 27: Tottenham (H)

May 4: West Brom (A)

May 7: Swansea (H)

May 12: Arsenal (A)

May 19: Aston Villa (H)

 

QPR Fixtures - P34, GD-27, 24 points

April 27: Reading (A)

May 4: Arsenal (H)

May 12: Newcastle (H)

May 19: Liverpool (A)

 

READING Fixtures - P34, GD-28, 24 points

April 27: QPR (H)

May 4: Fulham (A)

May 12: Man City (H)

May 19: West Ham (A)

 

Update please

Shroppie

Shroppie

Posted
Posted

Don't think our result makes a lot of difference, but Spurs' late equaliser was important.

 

Need a Sunderland win vs Villa now, IMO. Villa would then be 5 back with 3 to play and needing 2 wins. Would also make Sunderland almost safe and hopefully an easier prospect for our game with them.

Saint Garrett

Saint Garrett

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Still think we'll have enough. Stoke vs Sunderland, Norwich vs Villa, Wigan vs Villa. Some dropped points there.

 

Sunderland away is turning into a must not lose fixture. Lets hope it doesn't go down to having to get a point vs Stoke!

 

Newcastle looking precarious....!

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