Long Term Ambitions

[CB Fry]

The skates owners delivered European footballl and an FA Cup win, things which you fantisise about. It's fair to say they delivered as well is it not?

 

 

 

I'd call that far stronger delivery than promotion from the second tier, a feat achieved by the likes of Burnley, Hull and Reading in recent times.

 

Have a look at who else has won the FA cup in the last twenty years, MLG.

 

Pompey delivered. Track record.

[Turkish]

They did that at the expense of the long term future of the club and was unsustainable with their small stadium and lack of other assets. Lack of infrastructure has also screwed them in the long term and made them less attractive for investment.

 

Improvements at Staplewood will benefit Saints for years to come. Cortese/Liebherr's delivered that, which should give them standing if they announce future projects. At the moment the stadium image comes with a "?" on the opening image, but I wouldn't be so quick as some on here to completely rule it out.

 

 

 

That is the proposed finish date, as of a month ago it was on target for a summer 2013 completion. All steelwork is now up and wooden cladding going on and work on interiors has started. Landscaping of the site is well underway, 3G pitch is finished, work on spectator stand started etc etc.

 

Come back on the 5th of February and then we'll know if builders are going to finish the job or not. As things stand it's far from certain that it'll be completed in the summer of 2013, if at all. As it stands, they haven't delivered it.

 

anyway, the point quite clearly being that it's easy to put a few picutres out in the public domain isn't it. Doesn't mean anything and Pompeys owners delivered an FA Cup win and European football, they delivered.

[Matthew Le God]

I'd call that far stronger delivery than promotion from the second tier, a feat achieved by the likes of Burnley, Hull and Reading in recent times.

 

Have a look at who else has won the FA cup in the last twenty years, MLG.

 

Pompey delivered. Track record.

 

Please, please, please for your own sanity tell me you are joking if you think it is an achievement for Pompey to rack up £150m+ of debt, dilute it down to tiny levels through failed CVA's (skrewing creditors), win an FA Cup and put the very existence of the club under threat. Their overspending whilst having a lack of infrastructure has killed them.

[Turkish]

Please, please, please for your own sanity tell me you are joking if you think it is an achievement for Pompey to rack up £150m+ of debt, dilute it down to tiny levels through failed CVA's (skrewing creditors), win an FA Cup and put the very existence of the club under threat. Their overspending whilst having a lack of infrastructure has killed them.

 

How do you know we wont need to get into that sort of debt to deliver your champions league dream?

[Sour Mash]

Yes, early designs for a St Mary's expansion and development from the same architects (AFL) that designed the new training ground development at Staplewood.

That isn't really a design, its a drawing.

[Sour Mash]

How do you know we wont need to get into that sort of debt to deliver your champions league dream?

Imagine if the your club owners didn't pay their bills and had to be taken to court? Oh............................

[Turkish]

Imagine if the your club owners didn't pay their bills and had to be taken to court? Oh............................

 

Quite. We seem to have a bit of a track record for not paying bills. As MLG seems to like track records then we should be very worried, shouldn't we?

[View From The Top]

Ambition is fine but not at the cost of integrity.

[SaintBobby]

MLG,

 

You asked for someone to provide an argument as to why Saints can't realistically challenge for a top 4 slot.

 

I did so (post #77 at 3.05pm), but you have not deigned to reply.

[Graffito]

Ambition is fine but not at the cost of integrity.

 

There was a time many years ago when Southampton Football Club, if not a by-word for integrity, was respected as a decent well run club.

[CB Fry]

Please, please, please for your own sanity tell me you are joking if you think it is an achievement for Pompey to rack up £150m+ of debt, dilute it down to tiny levels through failed CVA's (skrewing creditors), win an FA Cup and put the very existence of the club under threat. Their overspending whilst having a lack of infrastructure has killed them.

 

Yes, but it is fifty times easier to tart up a training ground than it is take a small club to an FA Cup win.

 

You don't have to beat anyone to do up a training ground, just spend some dead man's money.

[Chewy]

MLG,

 

You asked for someone to provide an argument as to why Saints can't realistically challenge for a top 4 slot.

 

I did so (post #77 at 3.05pm), but you have not deigned to reply.

 

Actually, you just said we don't have the resources. That was an assumption, not a factual answer. If we do have the resources, your argument surely means that we can compete? Do you know what resources we have? If so, please tell me how you know this.

[Matthew Le God]

That is exactly why I didn't reply to him. His arguement is flawed, Cortese has stated he wants Champions League and is looking to improve St Mary's, academy and training ground. I'm sure he is fully aware how much that would cost and if he has those kinds of funds available. I doubt he'd bother with such aims unless he really believed he had the funding for it. None of us know for sure how much he has to work with, but imo Cortese despite being ruthless in the extreme knows what he is doing.

[aintforever]

I will tell you why we won't qualify for the top 4:

 

1. We have nowhere near the resources of Man C, Man Utd, Chelsea or Arsenal. Over a 38 game season, it is simply inconceivable that we will have a better record than ANY of these four teams. I will only reappraise this if (a) one of these four clubs goes into total financial meltdown and (b) Southampton start spending utterly massive sums of money on new players

 

2. Even if something very weird happened to one of these top 4, it's supremely unlikely that we would have the resources to compete over a season with Spurs or Liverpool. The latter have had a tough time of late, but are still probably going to finish in the top 6 or 7 and are much better equipped than Saints for the forseeable future.

 

3. This leaves 7th position as the highest realistic attainable target - but even that would involve us overcoming a whole swathe of clubs of similar or greater size to Southampton - Sunderland, West Ham, Villa, Stoke, West Brom etc. I can easily imagine us finishing higher than any given one of these clubs - but to imagine a season in which we finish in a higher slot than ALL of them is on the extremely optimistic side, to put it mildly. So even if, say, Spurs, Arsenal or Liverpool have a truly disastrous season, it's unlikely that we will manage to finish ahead of all the other middle-ish clubs.

 

4. Everton are an extreme, over-performing outlier. Even then, their average finishing position since the 2000/2001 is still only 9th place. In the last five seasons, they have performed very well -always finishing between 5th and 8th place. This sounds like it's pretty close to the Champions League places, but - in fact - they have always missed the top 4 by at least nine points (and by an average of over 11 points). They did once secure 4th place, with a remarkably low points total of just 61 points (a total that would almost certainly never secure 4th place ever again). Under today's rules, this would not have been sufficient to qualify (Liverpool would have qualified instead in 5th place as holders). So, even if we can replicate the incredible success Moyes has had at Everton, which it is very hard to imagine we ever will, it is supremely unlikely that we would ever make it into the top 4 anyway.

 

5. Once the realisation dawns that a serious effort to get into the top 4 is beyond us, there are big risks in having a business plan predicated on a serious bid to secure Champions League qualification. We would presumably have to spend an absolute fortune on players - but would end up with the derisory crumbs of Europa League qualification at best. This runs the serious risk of starting a cycle of massive overspend that eventually leads to the sort of total financial meltdown we have seen before. Far better to have a strategy of stabilising in the Premiership, always steering a fair way clear of the bottom three and typically finishing 9th-14th. Perhaps very, very occasionally securing a trip to Wembley for a Cup Final.

 

HTH.

 

Agree with all that except that saying it's supremely unlikely that anything will change with the big 4 is complete nonsense. Rewind 10 years or so and people would be saying you are nuts to include Man City or Chelsea in any sort of big 4. In fact I would say it is a near certainty that one or both of these clubs will end up in financial trouble once their owners have got bored.

 

Football always changes, wether it's us getting stupidly big funding, Chelsea going bankrupt or new rules changing the finances of football or qualification for the CL you can be sure things will change. Thats why it is dumb to say that it's impossible for us to ever get European football.

[miserableoldgit]

Wasn`t there supposedly a "war chest" put aside to allow for a 5 year plan to get to the PL? This has been achieved in 2 years which, if true must leave a fair bit.

[CB Fry]

Wasn`t there supposedly a "war chest" put aside to allow for a 5 year plan to get to the PL? This has been achieved in 2 years which, if true must leave a fair bit.

 

 

 

Whatever the five year plan was no one really knows, but what we do know is Cortese "expected" to go up last season, so presumably spent money accordingly. The plan was to be in the Prem this season.

[max_saints]

so if European football is unrealistic in the near future, what then was NA sacked and MP brought in for? simply to finish the season a few places higher in 12th or 13th? that's what I don't understand about the sacking, did NC really believe we could compete for the top 4?? I find the whole thing a waste of time really seeing as we can only aim a few places higher up the table from where we are (15th atm) realistically.

[SaintBobby]

Actually, you just said we don't have the resources. That was an assumption, not a factual answer. If we do have the resources, your argument surely means that we can compete? Do you know what resources we have? If so, please tell me how you know this.

 

Correct. We don't have the resources. We've spent £30m on transfers so far. A huge amount for us - but hardly competing with the top 4.

 

Does Cortese have an additional £300m in a war chest? I doubt it, but, as I've said, I'd reappraise if it became clear we were competing with Chelsea/Man Utd etc on spending.

 

I can safely say our matchday attendances and revenues are less than Man Utd and Arsenal. And we're receiving millions less in TV rights compared to the Champions League teams.

 

I'm also sort of assuming that Man Utd/Arsenal etc replcia shirt and merchandising sales are rather bigger than ours. Happy to been proven wrong, but seems a reasonable prediction.

[Chewy]

Correct. We don't have the resources. We've spent £30m on transfers so far. A huge amount for us - but hardly competing with the top 4.

 

Does Cortese have an additional £300m in a war chest? I doubt it, but, as I've said, I'd reappraise if it became clear we were competing with Chelsea/Man Utd etc on spending.

 

I can safely say our matchday attendances and revenues are less than Man Utd and Arsenal. And we're receiving millions less in TV rights compared to the Champions League teams.

 

I'm also sort of assuming that Man Utd/Arsenal etc replcia shirt and merchandising sales are rather bigger than ours. Happy to been proven wrong, but seems a reasonable prediction.

 

Clearly we don't have the traditional revenue streams of some (ticket sales, shirt sales etc) but then neither did Chelsea or city before they were heavily invested in. In terms of spending, we were 4th this summer, miles behind Chelsea, 12 million behind Man U, 2.5 behind city, 8 more than Liverpool, 28 more than arsenal, and spurs actually sold more than they spent. After this window we are now ahead of city. If coutinho or astori happen we will probably be second. At what point are you going to reappraise?

 

And for those who think we are in serious danger of becoming the next Pompey, all these players are young and have re-sale value. There is not a Kanu in sight. Apart from one bizarre decision on Friday, carried out in highly questionable circumstances, there is massive reason for optimism at saints. Still.

[Gingeletiss]

Clearly we don't have the traditional revenue streams of some (ticket sales, shirt sales etc) but then neither did Chelsea or city before they were heavily invested in. In terms of spending, we were 4th this summer, miles behind Chelsea, 12 million behind Man U, 2.5 behind city, 8 more than Liverpool, 28 more than arsenal, and spurs actually sold more than they spent. After this window we are now ahead of city. If coutinho or astori happen we will probably be second. At what point are you going to reappraise?

 

And for those who think we are in serious danger of becoming the next Pompey, all these players are young and have re-sale value. There is not a Kanu in sight. Apart from one bizarre decision on Friday, carried out in highly questionable circumstances, there is massive reason for optimism at saints. Still.

 

You wait until the Trolls wake up, they will hunt you down for posting a sensible post such as that.

[colehillsaint]

Clearly we don't have the traditional revenue streams of some (ticket sales, shirt sales etc) but then neither did Chelsea or city before they were heavily invested in. In terms of spending, we were 4th this summer, miles behind Chelsea, 12 million behind Man U, 2.5 behind city, 8 more than Liverpool, 28 more than arsenal, and spurs actually sold more than they spent. After this window we are now ahead of city. If coutinho or astori happen we will probably be second. At what point are you going to reappraise?

 

And for those who think we are in serious danger of becoming the next Pompey, all these players are young and have re-sale value. There is not a Kanu in sight. Apart from one bizarre decision on Friday, carried out in highly questionable circumstances, there is massive reason for optimism at saints. Still.

 

We won't go bust, but it has all been upside for the family so far. Unlike Chelsea etc this is supposedly being run like a business, and if we go down it is going to be expensive to pay out prem salaries and sell star players at reduced figures, because their agents don't want a season for them in the championship. The lack of continuity resulting from Friday is going to make this tangle a whole lot worse, so let us hope we stay up. I think the family will bail if they find their team in the championship, getting frustrated, and paying out a load more than is coming in.

[SaintBobby]

Clearly we don't have the traditional revenue streams of some (ticket sales, shirt sales etc) but then neither did Chelsea or city before they were heavily invested in. In terms of spending, we were 4th this summer, miles behind Chelsea, 12 million behind Man U, 2.5 behind city, 8 more than Liverpool, 28 more than arsenal, and spurs actually sold more than they spent. After this window we are now ahead of city. If coutinho or astori happen we will probably be second. At what point are you going to reappraise?

 

And for those who think we are in serious danger of becoming the next Pompey, all these players are young and have re-sale value. There is not a Kanu in sight. Apart from one bizarre decision on Friday, carried out in highly questionable circumstances, there is massive reason for optimism at saints. Still.

 

If evidence emerges that the Liebherr investment is on the same scale as the Chelsea and Man City investment, I will reappraise. There isn't much evidence of this. (Additionally, the vague information about a big loan from the British Virgin Islands or whatever at least raises an eyebrow rather than underscoring the theory of an enormous war chest

 

We are not really spending on the levels you suggest - yes, we've spent a lot on transfers, but that's only one element.

 

What do you think we're spending on payroll? Absolutely nowhere near the amount spent by the big clubs. Of course we have spent a lot on renewing the squad, Man City and Man Utd etc don't have to. They are already established at the top of the division. We needed to replace players who may have been good in the Championship, but incapable of cutting it in the top flight.

 

I'm guessing on payroll, but I'd be confident in suggesting we are nowhere near the top 4-6 clubs. That's a major reason why we're 15th and still at 7/4 to be relegated.

[Forester]

I do genuinely believe there is a route to Saints competing to regularly be a top 6 team over a ten year period but not in a simple "chuck wages at players" style a la Pompey. To be fair to NC he is addressing the infrastructure with nothing but the best at the academy, but as others have said an absolute must is to expand the stadium.

 

Our attendances now, with the constraints of a 32500 capacity, show us about 12th. However I think we would regularly get crowds of over 40,000 when playing top half teams, and our catchment area exapands throughout Dorset, Wiltshire and most of Hampshire. Just look at the JPT final for a glimpse of what is out there.

 

So if the stadium is firmly on the agenda I don't think its madness but it will take a decade

[CB Fry]

I do genuinely believe there is a route to Saints competing to regularly be a top 6 team over a ten year period but not in a simple "chuck wages at players" style a la Pompey. To be fair to NC he is addressing the infrastructure with nothing but the best at the academy, but as others have said an absolute must is to expand the stadium.

 

Our attendances now, with the constraints of a 32500 capacity, show us about 12th. However I think we would regularly get crowds of over 40,000 when playing top half teams, and our catchment area exapands throughout Dorset, Wiltshire and most of Hampshire. Just look at the JPT final for a glimpse of what is out there.

 

So if the stadium is firmly on the agenda I don't think its madness but it will take a decade

 

 

Eyes down for bullsh it bingo everyone.

 

 

 

 

HOUSE!

[colehillsaint]

If evidence emerges that the Liebherr investment is on the same scale as the Chelsea and Man City investment, I will reappraise. There isn't much evidence of this. (Additionally, the vague information about a big loan from the British Virgin Islands or whatever at least raises an eyebrow rather than underscoring the theory of an enormous war chest

 

We are not really spending on the levels you suggest - yes, we've spent a lot on transfers, but that's only one element.

 

What do you think we're spending on payroll? Absolutely nowhere near the amount spent by the big clubs. Of course we have spent a lot on renewing the squad, Man City and Man Utd etc don't have to. They are already established at the top of the division. We needed to replace players who may have been good in the Championship, but incapable of cutting it in the top flight.

 

I'm guessing on payroll, but I'd be confident in suggesting we are nowhere near the top 4-6 clubs. That's a major reason why we're 15th and still at 7/4 to be relegated.

 

I often wish I could be arsed to get on here and post something as well thought out as that.

[colehillsaint]

Eyes down for bullsh it bingo everyone.

 

 

 

 

HOUSE!

 

I had Turkish or Kracken down as the first to arrive. Lol.

[St.JonB]

The worrying thing for me is the amount of fans buying into this "vision" that we wll be competing for a top 6 place shortly. It is even acceptable to sack the most popular manager we have had because this is the only way we will get to this promised land. Some of you guys are acting more like members of some weird cult than supporters of the club. If I was a betting man I would say it's going to end in tears. Even if we do become the next new "big" club will it all be worth it?

[Forester]

go on - try and engage with the debate. It won't hurt! which bits are bullsh!t?

[colehillsaint]

go on - try and engage with the debate. It won't hurt! which bits are bullsh!t?

 

To be fair to CB Fry and a few other posters they have put a lot of effort into that debate over the course of the season and it was really all over in October when it became obvious that we weren't often selling out and the corporate sales were crap. He may take up the challenge but who would blame him if he doesn't bother. Do you think we will sell more tickets for Monday without that mill stone Adkins holding us back?

[CB Fry]

To be fair to CB Fry and a few other posters they have put a lot of effort into that debate over the course of the season and it was really all over in October when it became obvious that we weren't often selling out and the corporate sales were crap. He may take up the challenge but who would blame him if he doesn't bother. Do you think we will sell more tickets for Monday without that mill stone Adkins holding us back?

 

This. It's been done.

 

The club have been texting and emailing to flog tickets for Monday suggesting we are not "constrained" by our tiny little stadium after all. Anyway I'm not getting into it....!

[Turkish]

This. It's been done.

 

The club have been texting and emailing to flog tickets for Monday suggesting we are not "constrained" by our tiny little stadium after all. Anyway I'm not getting into it....!

 

Mad. Scramble. For. Tickets.

[Chewy]

The worrying thing for me is the amount of fans buying into this "vision" that we wll be competing for a top 6 place shortly. It is even acceptable to sack the most popular manager we have had because this is the only way we will get to this promised land. Some of you guys are acting more like members of some weird cult than supporters of the club. If I was a betting man I would say it's going to end in tears. Even if we do become the next new "big" club will it all be worth it?

 

Just to be clear, at no point have I said it was acceptable to sack NA. I even started the thanks and good luck thread. I don't think the long-term ambition is as far-fetched as many seem to; I don't buy into the next Pompey argument; I don't think they will bail if we go down; I think the infrastructure and squad acquisitions clearly suggest we are looking to the long-term future; i think the investment will continue at significant levels; I think the future is exciting.

 

However, I think NA deserved the chance to see how far he could take us - the pitch is ultimately where all the investment comes to fruition and achieves results, and NA was learning fast and doing well. With the momentum he'd just built up I thought 3 points were possible against Everton which would have given us significant breathing space. I doubt 3 points are now very likely. Unfair, handled badly, and appalling timing. But at the same time, a suggestion of just how ambitious we are. IMO he really does have big plans, and will pursue them ruthlessly. Whether any of us are comfortable with that is a different argument.

[ericb]

Just to put some of the baffling delusions in perspective,

 

Everton in my life time have won the league in 1985, 1987, the FA CUP in 1984, 1995, the league cup in 1984 and the European Cup Winners cup in 1985 as well as being FA Cup finalists in 1986, 1989, 2009. Plus they' ve never been out of the top flight and seldom (mid 90s mainly) have been out of the top ten.

 

Whereas in my lifetime the list of honours for us has included one FA Cup appearance, one league cup final appearance, one zds cup final appearance and the paint pot trophy. On top of this we've been relegated to the equivalent of the english third division.

 

So using them as a comparison is so stupid that it's not even worth thinking about.