Jump to content

No longer top 3 favourites to go down..


Saint Garrett

Recommended Posts

You do realise that seventeen teams don't get relegated and only one becomes champions?

 

And you do realise that seventeen is a much bigger number than one?

 

And you do realise I haven't used the phrase "equal chance" at any point on this thread? You can put it in bold as much as you like.

 

And you do realise you are a moron?

 

The phrase you used was "as likely." It isn't as likely. West Ham are more likely to be relegated than Man United.

 

Several people on here have disputed this assertion of yours, so the inference is that if anybody is of the moronic tendency, it is you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please lets not start positive news/press/betting slips = brilliant journalism and negative or perceived negative news/press/betting slips = sloppy lazy journalism.

 

You sound like a broken record attempting to establish your view (above) as some sort of urban myth. There is a simple issue with respect to how postive/negative articles are interpreted by fans of a club - It does NOT MATTER if a positive article is factually accurate or not. Its positive and therefore will reflect well on the club from both a PR and positive impact on fans - if it is not accurate it matters not, as no harm is done.

 

The complete opposite for negative articles - these have a NEGATIVE impact on the perception of the club and are a downer on fans so its feckin NATURAL that a) fans will be more defensive towards them, b) insist on closer examination of whethyer they are factually accurate or not ...

 

FFS its not rocket science and if you dont get this very simple difference between the two it merely reinforces your 'dune' dunceness/WUM factor.

 

Well done for going on ad infinitum about something you just dont get....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The phrase you used was "as likely." It isn't as likely. West Ham are more likely to be relegated than Man United.

 

Several people on here have disputed this assertion of yours, so the inference is that if anybody is of the moronic tendency, it is you.

 

West Ham aren't going to be relegated. Just like Man United. That's it. The "several people" can all see if I am right in May.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It tells us the teams on 26 points after that many games did not go down.

 

And that the bottom three teams came from the bottom four then.

 

The brains trust on this forum can talk about collapses and mega surges of form but the brutal truth is very little will change between now and May.

 

West Ham are as likely as Man United to go down. They aint going down.

 

If that was Saints in that position right now Les Wender and gang would be crowing about Champions League and 50,000 stadiums and sneering at anyone saying we were scrapping to stay up.

 

You take a look at Middlesbough in 92/93 they had 27 points after 21 games and were relegated on 44 points 2nd from bottom in a 22 team premier league season. After 38 games they were still 2nd from bottom on 37 points. So it could happen to West Ham, but it will not and has never happened to a team on 55 points after this many games, in a 20 or 22 team premier league.

 

Also this was only the secon season I looked at, so probably happened to others.

 

So you theory is wrong I am afraid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You do realise that seventeen teams don't get relegated and only one becomes champions?

 

And you do realise that seventeen is a much bigger number than one?

 

And you do realise I haven't used the phrase "equal chance" at any point on this thread? You can put it in bold as much as you like.

 

And you do realise you are a moron?

 

Like people who pointlessly insult people they disagree with you mean?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You take a look at Middlesbough in 92/93 they had 27 points after 21 games and were relegated on 44 points 2nd from bottom in a 22 team premier league season. After 38 games they were still 2nd from bottom on 37 points. So it could happen to West Ham, but it will not and has never happened to a team on 55 points after this many games, in a 20 or 22 team premier league.

 

Also this was only the secon season I looked at, so probably happened to others.

 

So you theory is wrong I am afraid.

 

It's not a theory. It's my opinion about West Ham not being relegated this season. West Ham won't be relegated this season.

 

Not sure why you need to spell out statistical proof about Man U staying up. Of course they're staying up. Them, and West Ham.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not a theory. It's my opinion about West Ham not being relegated this season. West Ham won't be relegated this season.

 

Not sure why you need to spell out statistical proof about Man U staying up. Of course they're staying up. Them, and West Ham.

 

Yes you are probably right tht Man U and West Ham will stay up. All I am saying is that stranger things have happened. I also like stats!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I

West Ham are as likely as Man United to go down.

 

That's b*ll*x. They don't look like going down but to say it's as likely as Man U is retarded.

 

A few key injuries and run of bad form and they could easily be dragged in.

 

Man Utd could have their whole first 11 taken out into the car park and shot, lose every single game from now until May, be deducted 10 points and still stay up comfortably.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's b*ll*x. They don't look like going down but to say it's as likely as Man U is retarded.

 

A few key injuries and run of bad form and they could easily be dragged in.

 

Man Utd could have their whole first 11 taken out into the car park and shot, lose every single game from now until May, be deducted 10 points and still stay up comfortably.

^ This.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I genuinely don't think WHU or Norwich are any better than us when we each have a full squad to choose from, but their points advantage at this stage is still significant and they won't be going down for that reason, IMO. Would be great to drag one or both of them into the mire, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CB Fry playing the slight of hand over the words 'as likely' to drum up a chance to win a forum argument, way to go Fry you the man.

 

Not really. I wrote my original point purely a way of expressing my opinion that WHU aren't going down, ie on a par with "WHU going down is as likely as me being able to unscrew a lightbulb using only my penis". I honestly didn't think it was a particularly imflammatory statement. It's only when Les Bender started going apesh it I started needing to defend it because he is someone worth having a pop at on here.

 

I see others are still going on about pointless mathematical likelihood. Good for you chaps.

 

Look people. West Ham aint going down, and neither are Man United. Both of them are as likely as each other to be in the Premier League next season.

 

 

 

What larks. Good night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's b*ll*x. They don't look like going down but to say it's as likely as Man U is retarded.

 

A few key injuries and run of bad form and they could easily be dragged in.

 

Man Utd could have their whole first 11 taken out into the car park and shot, lose every single game from now until May, be deducted 10 points and still stay up comfortably.

 

Good for you. Well done. West Ham and Man United will both be in the Premier League next season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a conspiracy theory about QPR... Nearly all there points have come against London clubs.. I half wonder if there is some sort of "let's give them a hand so we can have more local derbies" thing going on.

 

Probably nothing in it but very strange

 

Exactly my thoughts.

 

And we havent had a decent conspiracy theory in ages. I think the government is blocking them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

West Ham aren't going to be relegated. Just like Man United. That's it. The "several people" can all see if I am right in May.

 

None of the "several people" said that they would be relegated. Simple logistics says that usually a team is safe with 40 points. Manure have 55 points which in no way even if they lost all remaining m,atches would see them get relegated. Wetspam have 26 and if they lost their remaining fixtures they would be relegated.

 

Therefor the equality of chanc is not even close. Christ, Utd have more than twice WHU's points so work it out yourself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want Liverpool to go down. I have 80/1 about it happening.

 

And for the first few weeks it looked likely.

 

Sadly this is the WORST Premiership season I can remember.

 

We are all SH I T with the exception of two clubs from Manchester.

 

It's depressing.

 

My best buddy over here is a Newcastle fan - his home town team. His two sons (the apples must have rolled after falling) are rabid Liverpool and Villa fans. They all thought we'd struggle to stay "in the top flight".

 

What I wouldn't give for us to stay up and a Liverpool free-fall! :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

West Ham aren't going to be relegated. Just like Man United. That's it. The "several people" can all see if I am right in May.

 

Hardly anybody is debating the possibility or probability of West Ham going down. I have certainly not predicted it.

 

But an increasing number of them are questioning your totally absurd proposition that Manchester United were as likely to go down as West Ham. If you had wished to express your conviction that West Ham being relegated was "as likely as you being able to unscrew a lightbulb using only your penis", then that hyperbole would have been understood for what it was and I wouldn't have taken issue with it, (not having any intimate knowledge of your prowess with your penis).

 

Yours wasn't an inflamatory statement, just ridiculous. I didn't go apesh*t, it was you who resorted first to petty insults.

 

And it seems that all this derision you have been getting must mean that some consider it worth taking a pot at you too.

 

Good night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It must be a meaningful and fulfilling life some people lead when they are 'outraged' on a mongboard that someone thinks Man United and West Ham will be one of the 17 teams that stay up this season. As usual Les Bender is at the heart of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jesus, it is quite clear what CB Fry means...IE, he thinks west ham will NOT be going down.

 

Not really much else to comment other than be really sad and take each word he typed Literally

 

Oh, and to suggest west ham will be fine this season is perfectly reasonable ... Well utterly sensible really

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jesus, it is quite clear what CB Fry means...IE, he thinks west ham will NOT be going down.

 

Not really much else to comment other than be really sad and take each word he typed Literally

 

Oh, and to suggest west ham will be fine this season is perfectly reasonable ... Well utterly sensible really

 

Why do you say that Jamie? wet Spam (PMSL) have a sh*t, clueless manager, an over rated cart horse up front, an average championship midfielder as their captain, have just signed an over the hill, injury prone wide player. They play shocking football. Thier luck will run out sooner or later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

West Ham were woeful on Satruday against Sunderland, a team that isn't that great themselves. Probably a one off but their recent form hasn't been great and they have struggled to score goals.

 

They most likely won't go down, they have QPR at home next and I can see them winning that fairly easily. However, they also have a tough March and April, so the assumptions they will be comfortably mid table by the media I think is a bit optimistic. I think they will finish 14th/15th.

 

More importantly though they will play a big role in the relegation battle, they play us & villa away and still have home games against QPR, Wigan, Newcastle and Reading.

 

To say that they are as unlikely as Man Utd to go down though is a plainly stupid comment. Just man up and admit it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jesus, it is quite clear what CB Fry means...IE, he thinks west ham will NOT be going down.

 

Not really much else to comment other than be really sad and take each word he typed Literally

 

Oh, and to suggest west ham will be fine this season is perfectly reasonable ... Well utterly sensible really

 

I'm sure that Fry will love your adulation and you trying to excuse his stupid remark. Perhaps the next time he comes up with something so ridiculous, you'll be on hand to interpret it for us so that we know what he really meant to say.

 

As I said, I don't see many suggesting that West Ham will go down, but shame on all of us picking up that they were as unlikely to go down as Manchester United, when it was clearly plain that his penis unscrewing a light bulb was much more the appropriate metaphor and we should have realised that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm sure that Fry will love your adulation and you trying to excuse his stupid remark. Perhaps the next time he comes up with something so ridiculous, you'll be on hand to interpret it for us so that we know what he really meant to say.

 

As I said, I don't see many suggesting that West Ham will go down, but shame on all of us picking up that they were as unlikely to go down as Manchester United, when it was clearly plain that his penis unscrewing a light bulb was much more the appropriate metaphor and we should have realised that.

 

This sounds nessasary Les as you are clearly struggling to understand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I genuinely don't think WHU or Norwich are any better than us when we each have a full squad to choose from, but their points advantage at this stage is still significant and they won't be going down for that reason, IMO. Would be great to drag one or both of them into the mire, though.

 

I'd love to see us finish above West Ham, and I don't see why we shouldn't. I can't see them getting relegated though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to wade into this feeble debate with the facts... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

 

Weighted figures to reflect the strength of the previous and remaining opponents :

 

Chances of Man Utd winning the Premier League : 73%

Chances of West Ham winning it : 0.00151%

 

Chances of Man Utd being relegated : None, it is in fact mathematically impossible without points deductions

Chances of West Ham being relegated : 0.632%

Chances of Saints being relegated : 14.6%

...Sunderland : 1.5%

...Newcastle : 15.5%

...Wigan 41%

...Reading 62.2%

...Villa 71.7%

...QPR 88.5%

 

Even using 50/50 results from this point it's still West Ham 3.9%, Saints 19%, Wigan 41%, Villa 44, Reading 63, QPR 76

 

So using this particular model of probability West Ham are 632 times more likely to get relegated than win the Premier League this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I've just said on the Ugly site, it all depends on how many more injuries we get, as the squad is so wafer-thin.

 

I fear we will be goners if Lambert gets a serious injury, I simply don't think we'd get the wins we need if we were without him.

 

There's a bit that worries me in this soccerbythenumbers link is the sentence "the relegated clubs defended poorly early in the season, improved to levels roughly equal to the rest of the league about a third of the way through the season, but then saw a massive and steady deterioration in performance as the year wore on to the tune to about a goal per match by the end of the year"

 

"Finally, if we look carefully at the data for clubs relegated in the 2010/11 season, we see that the deterioration in offensive performance was much less than their deterioration in defensive performance" suggests that losing Shaw and Fonte could have more impact than losing Lambert.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's a bit that worries me in this soccerbythenumbers link is the sentence "the relegated clubs defended poorly early in the season, improved to levels roughly equal to the rest of the league about a third of the way through the season, but then saw a massive and steady deterioration in performance as the year wore on to the tune to about a goal per match by the end of the year"

 

"Finally, if we look carefully at the data for clubs relegated in the 2010/11 season, we see that the deterioration in offensive performance was much less than their deterioration in defensive performance" suggests that losing Shaw and Fonte could have more impact than losing Lambert.

 

 

Maybe. But hardly any teams in the Prem are strong defensively nowadays.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to wade into this feeble debate with the facts... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

 

Weighted figures to reflect the strength of the previous and remaining opponents :

 

Chances of Man Utd winning the Premier League : 73%

Chances of West Ham winning it : 0.00151%

 

Chances of Man Utd being relegated : None, it is in fact mathematically impossible without points deductions

Chances of West Ham being relegated : 0.632%

Chances of Saints being relegated : 14.6%

...Sunderland : 1.5%

...Newcastle : 15.5%

...Wigan 41%

...Reading 62.2%

...Villa 71.7%

...QPR 88.5%

 

Even using 50/50 results from this point it's still West Ham 3.9%, Saints 19%, Wigan 41%, Villa 44, Reading 63, QPR 76

 

So using this particular model of probability West Ham are 632 times more likely to get relegated than win the Premier League this season.

FAO Fry:

 

Chances of West Ham being relegated: 0.632%

Chances of Man Utd being relegated: 0.0%

 

0.632% ≠ 0.0%

 

HTH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's b*ll*x. They don't look like going down but to say it's as likely as Man U is retarded.

 

A few key injuries and run of bad form and they could easily be dragged in.

 

Man Utd could have their whole first 11 taken out into the car park and shot, lose every single game from now until May, be deducted 10 points and still stay up comfortably.

 

That'd be a cracking sequel to 'Escape to Victory'.

Edited by Suhari
Link to comment
Share on other sites

an agent was on talksport giving his views on the transfer window...

when talking about QPR he said that Fernandez has been incredible for QPR...backing his managers with serious money in fees and wages.

 

said it was pretty common knowledge that QPR have to stay up or they are in serious trouble next season...unless TF is prepared to throw even more money at the club just to maintain this level of operation..and that would be ridiculous money in the NPC

Link to comment
Share on other sites

an agent was on talksport giving his views on the transfer window...

when talking about QPR he said that Fernandez has been incredible for QPR...backing his managers with serious money in fees and wages.

 

said it was pretty common knowledge that QPR have to stay up or they are in serious trouble next season...unless TF is prepared to throw even more money at the club just to maintain this level of operation..and that would be ridiculous money in the NPC

 

Given FFP will be in force next season in the Championship, he will struggle to do that without having to pay huge fines and have a transfer embargo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...