Thedelldays Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 (edited) what do you reckon...cant remember the total we went down with...although we finished bottom in 2005..we were effectively 1 goal (a draw into a win) from survival... what about the last few years..? I think 37 will be enough for 17th....which means we need 20 more...to do that we have more away games than home and we will have to beat at least 1 top 4 side at home and pick up the odd points against other top teams.. wigan are my worry, they are kind of like us back in the day...so used to the dogfight they they know how to pull results out of the bag when all looks lost.. so, 37 I think will do it (whether we will or not is another debate) Edited 29 December, 2012 by Thedelldays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 More than the team in 18th will do it;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade Garrett Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 40 will be enough. Definitely not beyond us if we add to the team quickly in January. Keeper, defender, winger and we'll be fine. Days like today are depressing, but with just a bit more quality in certain areas we'll win from positions like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cabrone Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 40 points for me and even then I'm not overly confident. I think there will be an almighty scrap from here on in to avoid that 3rd from bottom place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 From http://blog.osirra.com/2011/05/15/premier-league-points-needed-to-avoid-relegationwin-the-league/ Premier League: points needed to avoid relegation/win the league Since the 1995/6 season, when the Premiership was reduced to 20 teams, the best-placed relegated team (that in 18th-place) in the top flight has had: 30 points: once (2009/10) 33 points: three times (1999/2000, 2003/04, 2004/05) 34 points: three times (2000/01, 2005/06, 2008/09) 36 points: three times (1998/99, 2001/02, 2007/08) 38 points: twice (1995/96, 2006/07) 40 points: twice (1996/97, 1997/98) 42 points: once (2002/03). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 So about 37 points in this year when there are 5 weak teams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Lets not start benchmarking against the team in 18th. We've had all this before. Lets see if we can achieve what the teams in 17th usually get, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Lets not start benchmarking against the team in 18th. We've had all this before. Lets see if we can achieve what the teams in 17th usually get, shall we? You could always try adding a point to what the 18th team had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 You could always try adding a point to what the 18th team had. You could but you'd likely still finish 18th in lots of those seasons. Utterly moronic to look at it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 You could but you'd likely still finish 18th in lots of those seasons. Utterly moronic to look at it that way. Perhaps I am a moron but I don't understand the point you're trying to make. Delldays was asking how many points we might need to stay up this year, and those numbers provide a guide based on history. Not a guarantee but a guide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 38 or 39 should be enough this season, because of the way the bottom few teams have played so far (including us). Shame we didn't get 3 today as that would have put us exactly half way there. We just need to improve on our first half season haul by 4 points and we will be OK. Despite some disappointment today we are back in touching distance of everyone up to 12th, just need the Arse to do the business against Newcastle today, shame Ba just equalised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Perhaps I am a moron but I don't understand the point you're trying to make. Delldays was asking how many points we might need to stay up this year, and those numbers provide a guide based on history. Not a guarantee but a guide. A better guide is what the team in 17th got. If you want a benchmark that's it. After all, none of the teams in 18th stayed up did they? Pretty simple really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 A better guide is what the team in 17th got. If you want a benchmark that's it. After all, none of the teams in 18th stayed up did they? Pretty simple really. Which is why I said add a point to the 18th team. Unless they've changed the rules, that keeps you one point clear of relegation. Now I thought that was "pretty simple really." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 I think 38 will be enough, we need to average slightly more than a point a game to achieve this. Personally I think we need at least 6 more wins and a few draws along the way. It would also help massively if those victories came against the teams around us. So far we have beaten Newcastle, Villa and Reading at home and QPR away, we need to repeat some of those wins in the return legs and be more clinical at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 For statistics geeks this is an interesting read. Not real time so won't have today's results in just yet. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amesbury Saint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 38 points should do it. So 21 points from 19 matches It is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 38 points should do it. So 21 points from 19 matches It is possible. 5 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses 6 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Which is why I said add a point to the 18th team. Unless they've changed the rules, that keeps you one point clear of relegation. Now I thought that was "pretty simple really." You're wrong, but really can't be bothered to explain why. Never mind your simple little head about it. Back on to the real topic, I doubt we will need as many as 40 points this season. The 36-8 mark would do it. I prefer to look at it in terms of wins. Win ten in a season and you are pretty much guaranteed safe. More guaranteed than basing the points target on the teams that finished in, errr, one of the the relegation spots. Genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 You're wrong, but really can't be bothered to explain why. Never mind your simple little head about it. Back on to the real topic, I doubt we will need as many as 40 points this season. The 36-8 mark would do it. I prefer to look at it in terms of wins. Win ten in a season and you are pretty much guaranteed safe. More guaranteed than basing the points target on the teams that finished in, errr, one of the the relegation spots. Genius. Feel free to make your point without being so patronising and rude next time please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Who? Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 You think about the terrible start to the season we had, and we are in an ok position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 You're wrong, but really can't be bothered to explain why. Never mind your simple little head about it. Back on to the real topic, I doubt we will need as many as 40 points this season. The 36-8 mark would do it. I prefer to look at it in terms of wins. Win ten in a season and you are pretty much guaranteed safe. More guaranteed than basing the points target on the teams that finished in, errr, one of the the relegation spots. Genius. What a sad, argumentative little person you are. All mouth and nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Seems to me that 34 or 35 points might be enough this season. The bottom 5 are all averaging less than a point a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctoroncall Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Which is why I said add a point to the 18th team. Unless they've changed the rules, that keeps you one point clear of relegation.Now I thought that was "pretty simple really."If you add a point to the team who were 18th, would they still be 18th in the table (out of 20 teams - you cannot introduce another team).Does that help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Interestingly the bookies generally seem to have called today's results as improving our chances of a avoiding the drop. http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miltonroader07 Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 I think 40 is a recurring number BUT 3 against Arsenal and 3 against Villa would be a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 If you add a point to the team who were 18th, would they still be 18th in the table (out of 20 teams - you cannot introduce another team).Does that help? No, if you're talking about points total to stay up, you add a point to what the team in 18th place had (see post 8 ). That puts you above them. Does that help? Jesus Murphy, it's not worth a barney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerx16 Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 To throw some meaningless stats into the debate, points from the last 10 games : Fulham 6 Newcastle 6 Wigan 7 Villa 9 Saints 13 Reading 7 QPR 7 I think 36 points will be good enough to survive, but we might be running out of finger nails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadesmith Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 No, if you're talking about points total to stay up, you add a point to what the team in 18th place had (see post 8 ). That puts you above them. Does that help? Jesus Murphy, it's not worth a barney. But what if the team in 18th has 36 points, so you add a point to make it 37......but the team in 17th had 38 points, therefore surely you would still go down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 But what if the team in 18th has 36 points, so you add a point to make it 37......but the team in 17th had 38 points, therefore surely you would still go down? Delldays asked how many points it would take to stay up. I posted the points totals for the teams that have finished in 18th place (the last relegation place) since 1995/96. In response to CB Fry being argumentative again, all I said was that it took one more point than the 18th place team - "adding a point to what the 18th team had", not giving them another point. That seems pretty obvious, so what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadesmith Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Delldays asked how many points it would take to stay up. I posted the points totals for the teams that have finished in 18th place (the last relegation place) since 1995/96. In response to CB Fry being argumentative again, all I said was that it took one more point than the 18th place team - "adding a point to what the 18th team had", not giving them another point. That seems pretty obvious, so what am I missing? I'm not sure amymore. I keep thinking about it amd my heads started hurting. But surely adding 1 more point to the team in 18th is irrelevant if the team in 17th is tw0 points ahead of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottery st mary Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Saints will get at least 40 points...No problem:) Maybe more:D Will that be enough:p Hopefully;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 I'm not sure amymore. I keep thinking about it amd my heads started hurting. But surely adding 1 more point to the team in 18th is irrelevant if the team in 17th is tw0 points ahead of them? Mine too. All I was trying to say was that the team(s) that got one more point than the team in 18th place didn't go down. Anyway, screw it - those are the historical last-relegation-place points totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SO16_Saint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 For statistics geeks this is an interesting read. Not real time so won't have today's results in just yet. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html absolutely no idea what the f**k this link is showing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jampot Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 42 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 absolutely no idea what the f**k this link is showing!! After carefully studying that page, I was able to figure out that our chance of winning the league disappeared in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SO16_Saint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 After carefully studying that page, I was able to figure out that our chance of winning the league disappeared in September. Yeah - got that bit... it fell off a f***ing cliff as soon as the season started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadesmith Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 For statistics geeks this is an interesting read. Not real time so won't have today's results in just yet. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html I keep looking at this and then start laughing like an hysterical madman. What does it all mean?...maybye the clue to survival is hidden within its statistacal data somewhere?..i need answers...but all i'm getting is more questions. I feel like Chevy Chase when he starts losing it 24 hours from Wally World. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctoroncall Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 No, if you're talking about points total to stay up, you add a point to what the team in 18th place had (see post 8 ). That puts you above them. Does that help? Jesus Murphy, it's not worth a barney. The bit in bold is wrong, you are introducing another team. Add a point to the 18th team and they stay 18th in a league of 20 teams. PS I don't know who Barney is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crab Lungs Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 Delldays asked how many points it would take to stay up. I posted the points totals for the teams that have finished in 18th place (the last relegation place) since 1995/96. In response to CB Fry being argumentative again, all I said was that it took one more point than the 18th place team - "adding a point to what the 18th team had", not giving them another point. That seems pretty obvious, so what am I missing? If you put CBFRY in a room on his own he would start an argument with himself and still be convinced he was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
for_heaven's_Saint Posted 29 December, 2012 Share Posted 29 December, 2012 To throw some meaningless stats into the debate, points from the last 10 games : Fulham 6 Newcastle 6 Wigan 7 Villa 9 Saints 13 Reading 7 QPR 7 I think 36 points will be good enough to survive, but we might be running out of finger nails. Just need to keep this up then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano6 Posted 30 December, 2012 Share Posted 30 December, 2012 I'm not sure amymore. I keep thinking about it amd my heads started hurting. But surely adding 1 more point to the team in 18th is irrelevant if the team in 17th is tw0 points ahead of them? Mine too. All I was trying to say was that the team(s) that got one more point than the team in 18th place didn't go down. Anyway, screw it - those are the historical last-relegation-place points totals. I think it's one of those where either of you could be right, or wrong, you just have to be clear what your premise is. The problem here is that, for example, 17th place has 38 points and 18th has 35 points. On the one hand, you could say that 18th would have needed to get (at least) 3 more points to stay up, and so in that league 38 points was the 'minimum needed to stay up'. Alternately, you could say that the additional 3 points 17th place got above 18th were irrelevant and they could still have stayed up if they hadn't got them, and so 35 was the 'minimum needed to stay up'. I don't think there's a right or wrong way to look at it, but I'd prefer to look at the higher placed 17th position scores as that gives the performance of teams that did stay in the division, which is what you are hoping to emulate. 18th places may have been relegated a few games before the end and given up, lowering the points total they might have got, or generally have fallen way short of a points total that would have kept them up in any season. I note that the statistical blog linked above suggests that the points total needed this year may be lower than I remember in previous years. The "What If" table implies that a total of 34-35 is the point at which the chances of being relegated drops below 50% (albeit that's still a scarily high chance). While obviously it's based upon its own set of assumptions that you could argue over, I think it follows from the fact that at the halfway stage there are 5 teams averaging less than a point per game (ie 38 over the season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 26 January, 2013 Author Share Posted 26 January, 2013 what you reckon.....14 more points from 15 games..? 4 wins and 2 draws...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashley Grute Posted 26 January, 2013 Share Posted 26 January, 2013 I would agree with you Dell Days- should be enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 26 January, 2013 Share Posted 26 January, 2013 38 should dso it I think; 15 more from 15 then. 4 wins,3 draws but I'd hope for better Banker Win list. Stoke,West Ham, QPR home Sunderland away (cos I want us to get even) Banker Draw list Newcastle,Reading away West Brom home. there are other games we should get something from though. Liverpool at home, Spurs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olallana Posted 26 January, 2013 Share Posted 26 January, 2013 38 should dso it I think; 15 more from 15 then. 4 wins,3 draws but I'd hope for better Banker Win list. Stoke,West Ham, QPR home Sunderland away (cos I want us to get even) Banker Draw list Newcastle,Reading away West Brom home. there are other games we should get something from though. Liverpool at home, Spurs away Nothing from Wigan away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 26 January, 2013 Author Share Posted 26 January, 2013 38 should dso it I think; 15 more from 15 then. 4 wins,3 draws but I'd hope for better Banker Win list. Stoke,West Ham, QPR home Sunderland away (cos I want us to get even) Banker Draw list Newcastle,Reading away West Brom home. there are other games we should get something from though. Liverpool at home, Spurs away wigan away is a biggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashley Grute Posted 26 January, 2013 Share Posted 26 January, 2013 Think we will struggle at WHL, but might beat West Brom, Wigan and Norwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 26 January, 2013 Share Posted 26 January, 2013 what you reckon.....14 more points from 15 games..? 4 wins and 2 draws...? Pretty much. 4 wins probably enough, 5 definitely. Draws sort themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 26 January, 2013 Share Posted 26 January, 2013 38 points, 4 wins and 3 draws. We should get a win or a draw at Wigan and once we've got Man United and City out of the way the only game you'd think we probably wont get anything from is Spurs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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