CanadaSaint Posted 21 October, 2012 Share Posted 21 October, 2012 Amidst all the gloom following the result at West Ham, I thought I'd try to add at least a little balance - if only to make myself feel better. This involves taking a similar approach to that taken by the Reading fan on this thread: http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?40456-Saints-and-avoiding-relegation-according-to-Reading-fans I've broken the PL into 4 groups - The Elite 4 (Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Man United), The Pretenders (Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle and Tottenham), The Fairly Solid Six (Villa, Fulham, Stoke, Sunderland, West Brom and West Ham), and the Likely Strugglers (Us, Norwich, QPR, Reading, Swansea and Wigan). In order to hit the notional 40-point safety target, each of the Strugglers needs to average as follows: Against the Elite teams - 0.00 points from Home games, 0.00 points from Away games Against the Pretender teams - 1.00 points from Home games, 0.00 points from Away games Against the Fairly Solid Six teams - 2.25 points from Home games, 0.50 points from Away games Against our fellow Strugglers - 2.75 points from Home games, 0.50 points from Away games At this stage of the season, the Strugglers are performing against these targets as follows: Saints - Down 2.75 points QPR: - Down 2.00 points Reading - Down 0.25 points Norwich - Up 0.50 points Wigan - Up 1.00 points Swansea - Up 1.50 points For me, this is the key league table. I'm not going to get too bent out of shape about losses at teams like West Ham because we didn't really lose 3 points - we lost 0.50 points against our target. Similarly, if we lose at home to Spurs, we won't have lost 3 points but 1 point. I'm not going to spiral into depression if it happens. We keep hearing that we've had a tougher start than most of our rivals, but this analysis helped me to put things into clearer perspective and made me feel just a little better. I can update it weekly if people are interested. Of course, this won't help much if our defence continues to play like a bunch of half-wits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 21 October, 2012 Share Posted 21 October, 2012 It looks to me like we are bottom of that league, no? Dnt really see how it could have cheered you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadesmith Posted 21 October, 2012 Share Posted 21 October, 2012 Not only am I still depressed..but I now feel intellectually inadequate. Cheers Champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micky Posted 21 October, 2012 Share Posted 21 October, 2012 I can just see Nige scribbling the OP down on the back of a fag packet in order to try to sell in to Nicola come Monday. Nice try - but I don't buy it and I don't think the Don is gonna buy it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 21 October, 2012 Author Share Posted 21 October, 2012 There's nothing to "buy", Micky, other than the perspective of how we're all doing against the 40-point target after allowing for who we've actually played. And Yes, Turkish, we're bottom of the key league as well, but one good result makes it look much better - as it did for Norwich. Needless to say, our only real "killer" result so far was the Wigan game. And, as I said, losing to Spurs wouldn't be a disaster in the context of this 'table'. Oh well, it helped me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerBadger Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 A more rewarding view of our plight than the league table but unless we sort out our self destruct button real soon I fear it matters not a jot how we dress it up, that said well played, do keep it updated and allllllllllllllllllllllways look on the bright side of life............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Here's perspective for the seasons long journey. Unless Harry Potter flies by SMS next weekend or soon thereafter and waves his magic wand over our defence, we are going to get relegated, most likely with highest goals conceeded and lowest points total ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordswoodsaints Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Amidst all the gloom following the result at West Ham, I thought I'd try to add at least a little balance - if only to make myself feel better. This involves taking a similar approach to that taken by the Reading fan on this thread: http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?40456-Saints-and-avoiding-relegation-according-to-Reading-fans I've broken the PL into 4 groups - The Elite 4 (Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Man United), The Pretenders (Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle and Tottenham), The Fairly Solid Six (Villa, Fulham, Stoke, Sunderland, West Brom and West Ham), and the Likely Strugglers (Us, Norwich, QPR, Reading, Swansea and Wigan). In order to hit the notional 40-point safety target, each of the Strugglers needs to average as follows: Against the Elite teams - 0.00 points from Home games, 0.00 points from Away games Against the Pretender teams - 1.00 points from Home games, 0.00 points from Away games Against the Fairly Solid Six teams - 2.25 points from Home games, 0.50 points from Away games Against our fellow Strugglers - 2.75 points from Home games, 0.50 points from Away games At this stage of the season, the Strugglers are performing against these targets as follows: Saints - Down 2.75 points QPR: - Down 2.00 points Reading - Down 0.25 points Norwich - Up 0.50 points Wigan - Up 1.00 points Swansea - Up 1.50 points For me, this is the key league table. I'm not going to get too bent out of shape about losses at teams like West Ham because we didn't really lose 3 points - we lost 0.50 points against our target. Similarly, if we lose at home to Spurs, we won't have lost 3 points but 1 point. I'm not going to spiral into depression if it happens. We keep hearing that we've had a tougher start than most of our rivals, but this analysis helped me to put things into clearer perspective and made me feel just a little better. I can update it weekly if people are interested. Of course, this won't help much if our defence continues to play like a bunch of half-wits. This is all well and good and I applaud you for posting it but the hard facts are we are leaking on average 3 goals per game as it stands so that means we have to score a shed load just to get something from the game and if you start with your most prolific goalscorer on the bench and play players who haven't got a great record of hitting the net then it is only going to end one way. You have to remember that even the best strikers on average in the world only manage a goal every other game so what we are expecting from ours is almost an impossibility. We are heading along a path that will lead to relegation because we are failing to gets points off of the teams who will be in the mix with us like Wigan and west ham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Interesting WHU are already in "the solid six" - didn't we finish above them? And didn't we outspend most of Europe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Interesting WHU are already in "the solid six" - didn't we finish above them? And didn't we outspend most of Europe? And they are supposed to be crap, with a crap manager and play crap football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adrian lord Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 With hindsight there were warning signs pointing to our current predicament throughout the last third of last season IMHO. Too often I came away from games feeling we had ridden our luck. We struggled against our promotion rivals in particular, and just limped home second. Don't know the stats for the last third of last season but I suspect they might reveal our emerging frailties, especially defensively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 With hindsight there were warning signs pointing to our current predicament throughout the last third of last season IMHO. Too often I came away from games feeling we had ridden our luck. We struggled against our promotion rivals in particular, and just limped home second. Don't know the stats for the last third of last season but I suspect they might reveal our emerging frailties, especially defensively. I do agree with that. 1st should have been ours, done and dusted if we're honest. The better teams beat us quite comfortably towards the end of last year too. (Blackpool could have had 4 or 5 for e.g). So I think we ignored the problems, in some cases we as fans put our heads in the stand as well and thought it would all be fixed in the summer. But alas it hasn't been, and everything at the back is almost identical which isn't a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 I do agree with that. 1st should have been ours, done and dusted if we're honest. The better teams beat us quite comfortably towards the end of last year too. (Blackpool could have had 4 or 5 for e.g). So I think we ignored the problems, in some cases we as fans put our heads in the stand as well and thought it would all be fixed in the summer. But alas it hasn't been, and everything at the back is almost identical which isn't a good sign. Wow, you are admitting you were wrong. For that you have my respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redsaints106 Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Here's perspective for the seasons long journey. Unless Harry Potter flies by SMS next weekend or soon thereafter and waves his magic wand over our defence, we are going to get relegated, most likely with highest goals conceeded and lowest points total ever. Positive as ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicestersaint Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 If we keep letting in an average of 3 goals we are doomed. That said, i fully expect us to beat Spurs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Positive as ever! Nothing to do with positivity or negativity. Its a realistic take on where we are now. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohio Saint Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Well I like it!!! It takes my mind off the reality of the situation and gives me a false sense of security. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redsaints106 Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Nothing to do with positivity or negativity. Its a realistic take on where we are now. Deal with it. I'll deal with it when it inevitable, up until that point I'll refrain from hand ringing and back the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 I'll deal with it when it inevitable, up until that point I'll refrain from hand ringing and back the team. And stick your head in the ground to the need to do anything about it, to actually change the direction we are going in. I wish I was as great a fan as you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 (edited) If we keep letting in an average of 3 goals we are doomed. That said, i fully expect us to beat Spurs! Gazzaniga letting in 6 in 3 average 2 and two of those were Hooiveld's deflections. Put him back in goal. The Sky commentators on Saturday (neutrals) said of Boruc, nervous, indecisive, will want to forget this display, a bad day at the office. Gazzaniga was doing well and had improved the defence, leaving him out especially when Boruc really wasn't that good v United U21s was unfair and contributed to our defeat. Edited 22 October, 2012 by derry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Amidst all the gloom following the result at West Ham, I thought I'd try to add at least a little balance - if only to make myself feel better. This involves taking a similar approach to that taken by the Reading fan on this thread: http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?40456-Saints-and-avoiding-relegation-according-to-Reading-f I've broken the PL into 4 groups - The Elite 4 (Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Man United), The Pretenders (Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle and Tottenham), The Fairly Solid Six (Villa, Fulham, Stoke, Sunderland, West Brom and West Ham), and the Likely Strugglers (Us, Norwich, QPR, Reading, Swansea and Wigan). In order to hit the notional 40-point safety target, each of the Strugglers needs to average as follows: Against the Elite teams - 0.00 points from Home games, 0.00 points from Away games Against the Pretender teams - 1.00 points from Home games, 0.00 points from Away games Against the Fairly Solid Six teams - 2.25 points from Home games, 0.50 points from Away games Against our fellow Strugglers - 2.75 points from Home games, 0.50 points from Away games At this stage of the season, the Strugglers are performing against these targets as follows: Saints - Down 2.75 points QPR: - Down 2.00 points Reading - Down 0.25 points Norwich - Up 0.50 points Wigan - Up 1.00 points Swansea - Up 1.50 points For me, this is the key league table. I'm not going to get too bent out of shape about losses at teams like West Ham because we didn't really lose 3 points - we lost 0.50 points against our target. Similarly, if we lose at home to Spurs, we won't have lost 3 points but 1 point. I'm not going to spiral into depression if it happens. We keep hearing that we've had a tougher start than most of our rivals, but this analysis helped me to put things into clearer perspective and made me feel just a little better. I can update it weekly if people are interested. Of course, this won't help much if our defence continues to play like a bunch of half-wits. Or changing the goalkeeper unnecessarily. A good approach to what we really need to do to stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wes Tender Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Pardon me, but I don't put West Ham in the fairly solid 6 and God knows what Villa are doing in that bunch too. We'll end the season above West Ham and Villa, so wherever you put them, we'll be above there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 22 October, 2012 Author Share Posted 22 October, 2012 I agree with some of the posts on here but they're really beside the point I was trying to make. This isn't about why we're where we are (there are plenty of threads for that), or about which posters were right in the Summer and which were wrong (god knows there are enough threads contaminated with that), or even about whether West Ham have passed us by (they clearly have). It's simply focusing on the fact that - for the foreseeable future and whether we like it or not - we're effectively in a six-team mini-league in which we must finish in the top 3 to survive in the PL. In that league (realistically speaking) all games matter but some games really, really matter. It's a way of keeping a handle on how we're all doing in the games that really, really matter. (Yes, Wes, I originally had Villa in the Strugglers group but took them out - to create a little equilibrium more than anything else. I could fairly easily put them back in.) Rather than looking at the full division and treating every game the same, with all the associated post-match depression, I wanted to see how we were doing in that mini league. That's all. It helped me to gain a little perspective and helped me to realize that (for example) losing at home to Spurs - god forbid - wouldn't be three key points down the drain, but one. And to appreciate that one good result in which we pick up "above budget" points (a la Norwich) can make a very big difference. Even if it's just for myself I'll keep doing it because this is going to be a long, hard and often depressing season. For those who (wisely) want to keep a handle on goal difference as well, here's a quick update: Saints - Down 2.75 points, GD -11 QPR: - Down 2.00 points, GD -10 Reading - Down 0.25 points, GD -6 Norwich - Up 0.50 points, GD -11 Wigan - Up 1.00 points, GD -7 Swansea - Up 1.50 points, GD +2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david in sweden Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 (edited) Nice thread Canada, but you can't expect to influence some of the people on this site ....purely with stats. I've tried it ! ....and they've forgotten already that we had the misfortune to get teams presently in the top 10...... in 6 of our first 8 games... .(and they didn't get up there just by beating us). Sam was happy with his 3 points on Saturday, but then admitted Arsenal were the only top team they'd played...and bemoaned Wham's forthcoming fixture schedule...Man.City, Man Utd etc etc, we 've done those already........with predicatble results. If we turn around in December and say we'd lost to ; Man.City, Everton and Arsenal ....and Man Utd....it wouldn't raise an eyebrow ! Edited 22 October, 2012 by david in sweden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordswoodsaints Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Nice thread Canada, but you can't expect to influence some of the people on this site ....purely with stats. I've tried it ! ....and they've forgotten already that we had the misfortune to get teams presently in the top 10...... in 6 of our first 8 games... .(and they didn't get up there just by beating us). Sam was happy with his 3 points on Saturday, but then admitted Arsenal were the only top team they'd played...and bemoaned Wham's forthcoming fixture schedule...Man.City, Man Utd etc etc, we 've done those already........with predicatble results. If we turn around in December and say we'd lost to ; Man.City, Everton and Arsenal ....and Man Utd....it wouldn't raise an eyebrow ! I agree with all the stats that Canada posted and I also agree with your stuff but because we have played the top teams the players and fans are on edge so although west ham have yet to face the top teams they are at an advantage because they have gained a bit of form and the fans are united whereas our fan base is fragmented and will get restless with every mistake made and this is something you can't compute into stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 Or changing the goalkeeper unnecessarily. A good approach to what we really need to do to stay up. Yes, just when we needed some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david in sweden Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 I agree with all the stats that Canada posted and I also agree with your stuff but because we have played the top teams the players and fans are on edge so although west ham have yet to face the top teams they are at an advantage because they have gained a bit of form and the fans are united whereas our fan base is fragmented and will get restless with every mistake made and this is something you can't compute into stats. YES ....somehow you can get the impression that some people are just waiting for us to lose the LAST GAME of the season and get relegated.........instead of concentrating on a change of luck in the NEXT ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 22 October, 2012 Share Posted 22 October, 2012 I agree with some of the posts on here but they're really beside the point I was trying to make. This isn't about why we're where we are (there are plenty of threads for that), or about which posters were right in the Summer and which were wrong (god knows there are enough threads contaminated with that), or even about whether West Ham have passed us by (they clearly have). It's simply focusing on the fact that - for the foreseeable future and whether we like it or not - we're effectively in a six-team mini-league in which we must finish in the top 3 to survive in the PL. In that league (realistically speaking) all games matter but some games really, really matter. It's a way of keeping a handle on how we're all doing in the games that really, really matter. (Yes, Wes, I originally had Villa in the Strugglers group but took them out - to create a little equilibrium more than anything else. I could fairly easily put them back in.) Rather than looking at the full division and treating every game the same, with all the associated post-match depression, I wanted to see how we were doing in that mini league. That's all. It helped me to gain a little perspective and helped me to realize that (for example) losing at home to Spurs - god forbid - wouldn't be three key points down the drain, but one. And to appreciate that one good result in which we pick up "above budget" points (a la Norwich) can make a very big difference. Even if it's just for myself I'll keep doing it because this is going to be a long, hard and often depressing season. For those who (wisely) want to keep a handle on goal difference as well, here's a quick update: Saints - Down 2.75 points, GD -11 QPR: - Down 2.00 points, GD -10 Reading - Down 0.25 points, GD -6 Norwich - Up 0.50 points, GD -11 Wigan - Up 1.00 points, GD -7 Swansea - Up 1.50 points, GD +2 I like this approach. A useful number next to each one would be what their expected points total would be so far as that would help interpret the numbers as I can't be bothered to look at the table and do the maths. E.g ours would be current points 4 - expected points 6.75 (down 2.75) etc etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 23 October, 2012 Author Share Posted 23 October, 2012 Thanks for the input everyone. I've built much of it into this update, which now adds Villa back in (because Wes is right - they certainly deserve to be there) as well as West Ham (because, despite their current position in the full table, the analysis supports Allardyce's caution and suggests that they're really still in this group). The PPG targets have been adjusted slightly but still end up aimed at a total of 40, and - of course - the inclusion of Villa and West Ham changes the +/- outcomes. Anyway, here goes: [TABLE=width: 750] [TR] [TD]Posn[/TD] [TD]Team[/TD] [TD]Target[/TD] [TD]Actual[/TD] [TD]+/-[/TD] [TD]GD[/TD] [TD]VS Likely Strugglers[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]West Ham[/TD] [TD]11.75[/TD] [TD]14[/TD] [TD]+2.25[/TD] [TD]+3[/TD] [TD]5 (3-1-1)[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]6.25[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]-0.25[/TD] [TD]-11[/TD] [TD]1 (0-1-0)[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]12.25[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]-1.25[/TD] [TD]+2[/TD] [TD]4 (2-1-1)[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]6.75[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]-1.75[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]2 (1-0-1)[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]5.00[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]-2.00[/TD] [TD]-6[/TD] [TD]1 (0-1-0)[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]7.25[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]-2.25[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]3 (1-0-2)[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]7.25[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]-4.25[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]3 (0-1-2)[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]8.25[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]-4.25[/TD] [TD]-11[/TD] [TD]3 (1-0-2)[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] And No, this is not about trying to pretend that we're not in the sh*t but about how deep the pile really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 11 December, 2012 Share Posted 11 December, 2012 Any plans to update this thread CanadaSaint?? Be interesting to see where we (and others) stand now after a few wins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 12 December, 2012 Author Share Posted 12 December, 2012 Any plans to update this thread CanadaSaint?? Be interesting to see where we (and others) stand now after a few wins... Thanks for remembering, Ottawa. I've re-tooled it a little, given the way things are shaping up. I've moved Norwich and Swansea from the Likely Strugglers group to the Fairly Solid Four, with Sunderland and Fulham making the reverse journey. Sure, I could have moved Newcastle down but I just can't see them struggling all season. Likewise, I could have moved West Ham up, but they are a possible candidate for a bad run that would pitch them right back into it. We can debate "who goes where" until we're blue in the face but it doesn't matter that much because the whole point of this exercise is that it's a relative measure. So the groups become: Elite 4 - Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man United Pretenders - Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle, Tottenham Fairly Solid 4 - Stoke, West Brom, Norwich, Swansea Likely Strugglers - Villa, Fulham, QPR, Reading, Saints, Sunderland, West Ham, Wigan As a reminder, the PPG targets for the Likely Strugglers are as follows: vs Elite 4 - H 0.00/A 0.00; vs 4 Pretenders - H 1.00/A 0.00; vs Fairly Solid 4 - H 2.25/A 0.25; vs Fellow Strugglers - H 2.75/A 0.50. TOTAL = 40 Here's the latest "Strugglers Table", up to date following Sunderland's win over Reading: [TABLE=width: 750] [TR] [TD]Position[/TD] [TD]Team[/TD] [TD]Target Points[/TD] [TD]Actual Points[/TD] [TD]+/- vs Target[/TD] [TD]GD[/TD] [TD]vs Likely Strugglers[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]West Ham[/TD] [TD]15.50[/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [TD]+6.50[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]P6 / W4 / D1 / L1 / PPG 2.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]15.25[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]+4.75[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]P6 / W2 / D2 / L2 / PPG 1.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]15.25[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]-0.25[/TD] [TD]-11[/TD] [TD]P6 / W2 / D1 / L3 / PPG 1.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]17.00[/TD] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]-1.00[/TD] [TD]-4[/TD] [TD]P6 / W3 / D2 / L1 / PPG 1.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]17.75[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]-2.75[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]P6 / W3 / D1 / L2 / PPG 1.67[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]18.75[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]-3.75[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]P6 / W3 / D1 / L2 / PPG 1.67[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]13.25[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]-4.25[/TD] [TD]-12[/TD] [TD]P6 / W0 / D2 / L4 / PPG 0.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]15.75[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]-8.75[/TD] [TD]-16[/TD] [TD]P6 / W0 / D4 / L2 / PPG 0.67[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I found the update quite sobering. While our recent results have helped a great deal, we clearly still have a very long way to go. I expected us to be farther ahead of Reading but this table shows the whole point of this approach. Sure, they've played 6 games against Fellow Strugglers but five of those games were away from home; so, while their record against the Strugglers isn't good, they haven't dropped that many points against their target because they only need to average 0.50 PPG in those away games in order to be on track for survival. The table also shows that QPR aren't as detached as many of the pundits are saying - a good run would move them up quite quickly. Our good results against the Fellow Strugglers are great - and crucial, but we really need to pick up some "above budget" points from the higher teams. St. Mary's must - with help from the fans - become a fortress, and we must do some solid business in the window. I've checked the table several times but it's quite a complex exercise, so please forgive (and tell me about) any errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctoroncall Posted 12 December, 2012 Share Posted 12 December, 2012 The only information I see from the latest table is that: Saints have had the easiest run of games so far and Reading the worst! QPR are in the **** having picked up less than half of their expected points. Plus I get the total as 36.75 not 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 12 December, 2012 Author Share Posted 12 December, 2012 (edited) Plus I get the total as 36.75 not 40. You're right - I was hoping we'd get points playing against ourselves! I'll look at it in the morning, but the problem impacts every team so it shouldn't change the relatives. Thanks. Edit: Couldn't go to bed with this unresolved. I've changed the PPG targets in Away matches with Fellow Strugglers to 1.00. The new total is 40.25, and the new table is as follows: 1 West Ham - Target 16.50, Actual 22, +5.50 2 Fulham - Target 17.25, Actual 20, +2.75 3 Sunderland - Target 18.00, Actual 16, -2.00 4 Aston Villa - Target 17.75, Actual 15, -2.75 5 Wigan - Target 18.75, Actual 15, -3.75 6 Southampton - Target 19.75, Actual 15, -4.75 7 Reading - Target 15.75, Actual 9, -6.75 8 QPR - Target 16.75, Actual 7, -9.75 I hope that's right now. Edited 12 December, 2012 by CanadaSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctoroncall Posted 12 December, 2012 Share Posted 12 December, 2012 So with the weighting system, the Sunderland game is a MUST win game, otherwise we will be 7.5 points behind target with more than half the targeted points gone unless we win against tougher opposition (which we have only once against an out of form Newcastle). A sobering thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 12 December, 2012 Share Posted 12 December, 2012 what we have against us... we have to play away to our rivals...whilst our away record is dire...we are going to have to pick up points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Charlie Posted 12 December, 2012 Share Posted 12 December, 2012 what we have against us... we have to play away to our rivals...whilst our away record is dire...we are going to have to pick up points Whilst our away record isn't good, our matches so far away from home have been as follows: Played: 7 Vs Top half Teams: 5 (City, Everton, Arsenal, WBA, Liverpool) Points - 0 Vs Bottom half Teams: 2 (WHU, QPR) Points - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 12 December, 2012 Share Posted 12 December, 2012 Whilst our away record isn't good, our matches so far away from home have been as follows: Played: 7 Vs Top half Teams: 5 (City, Everton, Arsenal, WBA, Liverpool) Points - 0 Vs Bottom half Teams: 2 (WHU, QPR) Points - 3 well....lets see reading have to play at home...every one in the bottom 6.....(apart from qpr)...they may turn it around yet we are going to have to pick up points away from home at a greater rate than we have...and still beat a top 6 side we shall see...but our record so far is not that good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Charlie Posted 12 December, 2012 Share Posted 12 December, 2012 (edited) well....lets see reading have to play at home...every one in the bottom 6.....(apart from qpr)...they may turn it around yet we are going to have to pick up points away from home at a greater rate than we have...and still beat a top 6 side we shall see...but our record so far is not that good Indeed - just showing the facts, we would probably have expected to pick up the odd point away but realistically at the start of the season of those matches that we have lost, we would only have believed a win could have come vs WBA IMO (and they have a great home recrod this season). For us the key will be the away games vs the teams around us, and as we have done well at home, the draws become decent results against the teams around you. Edited 12 December, 2012 by Saint Charlie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 12 December, 2012 Share Posted 12 December, 2012 Indeed - just showing the facts, we would probably have expected to pick up the odd point away but realistically at the start of the season of those matches would only have believed a win could have come vs WBA IMO (and they have a great home recrod this season). For us the key will be the away games vs the teams around us, and as we have done well at home, the draws become decent results against the teams around you. why was picking up points at west ham completely out of the question...? liverpool should have been also but we were absolutely awful.... we are doing well, at last but we have had an incredible run of fixtures...for all the moaning about the start, this little run we have had at home is the best you can get...yet we still (virtually) threw the ball in our own net twice and could well be back in the bottom 3 next week.... I have always said that come final whistle of the sunderland game, if we are in the bottom 3...we are in serious trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Charlie Posted 12 December, 2012 Share Posted 12 December, 2012 (edited) why was picking up points at west ham completely out of the question...? liverpool should have been also but we were absolutely awful.... we are doing well, at last but we have had an incredible run of fixtures...for all the moaning about the start, this little run we have had at home is the best you can get...yet we still (virtually) threw the ball in our own net twice and could well be back in the bottom 3 next week.... I have always said that come final whistle of the sunderland game, if we are in the bottom 3...we are in serious trouble... I meant from the games we have lost. You could argue we could have got something vs Liverpool but its not a "nice" away game IMO and I expected to lose. We have had nice home fixtures and have done well this recent run...the flip side of that is you get tough aways which is what we have had. We won the crucial game at QPR and will need to do well in the games we have a realistic chance of winning, ie away at Villa, Wigan, Reading, Sunderland etc - and we don't know how we will do in those games. In addition, we are far more likely to get points at home to the likes of Arsenal, Everton, WBA, West Ham etc than away to them so no reason we can't win a couple of those. Edited 12 December, 2012 by Saint Charlie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 12 December, 2012 Share Posted 12 December, 2012 Interesting WHU are already in "the solid six" - didn't we finish above them? And didn't we outspend most of Europe? On the subject of West Ham, I noticed that Wally Downes has left by "mutual consent" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctoroncall Posted 22 December, 2012 Share Posted 22 December, 2012 Not looking good, we need to start winning the harder home games and away games or relegation beckons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 22 December, 2012 Author Share Posted 22 December, 2012 I'll do an update after tomorrow's games but it's not going to look good - Wigan and Reading both lost games with zero-point targets, and anything Villa get at Chelsea tomorrow would be a bonus. Meanwhile we lost a "six-pointer". Thinking about it, maybe I should leave it until after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 22 December, 2012 Share Posted 22 December, 2012 I am cocooned in my 'yoyo' theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 30 December, 2012 Author Share Posted 30 December, 2012 Here's the year-end table. I've simplified it again - by cutting back to three groups and adjusting the PPG targets accordingly: vs Elite 4 - H 0.00/A 0.00; vs Middle 8 - H 2.00/A 0.25; vs Fellow Strugglers - H 2.75/A 0.50. TOTAL = 40.78 [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Pos[/TD] [TD]Team[/TD] [TD]Target[/TD] [TD]Actual[/TD] [TD]+/-[/TD] [TD]GD[/TD] [TD]vs Likely Strugglers[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]P[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]D[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD]PPG[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]West Ham[/TD] [TD]21.25[/TD] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]+1.75[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.86[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]23.00[/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [TD]-1.00[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]21.25[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]-3.25[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.86[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]25.75[/TD] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]-4.75[/TD] [TD]-6[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1.13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]23.25[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]-5.25[/TD] [TD]-24[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]25.75[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]-8.75[/TD] [TD]-11[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1.38[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]23.25[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]-10.25[/TD] [TD]-15[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]0.71[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]25.00[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]-15.00[/TD] [TD]-20[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Here are the games remaining: [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Team[/TD] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]vs Elite 4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]vs Middle 8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]vs Likely Strugglers[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Ham[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Those away games at fellow strugglers are looking crucial. Please let me know of any errors. If someone could give me some time-saving advice on how to post an Excel spreadsheet I'd be grateful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miltonroader07 Posted 30 December, 2012 Share Posted 30 December, 2012 Amidst all the gloom following the result at West Ham, I thought I'd try to add at least a little balance - if only to make myself feel better. This involves taking a similar approach to that taken by the Reading fan on this thread: http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?40456-Saints-and-avoiding-relegation-according-to-Reading-fans I've broken the PL into 4 groups - The Elite 4 (Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Man United), The Pretenders (Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle and Tottenham), The Fairly Solid Six (Villa, Fulham, Stoke, Sunderland, West Brom and West Ham), and the Likely Strugglers (Us, Norwich, QPR, Reading, Swansea and Wigan). In order to hit the notional 40-point safety target, each of the Strugglers needs to average as follows: Against the Elite teams - 0.00 points from Home games, 0.00 points from Away games Against the Pretender teams - 1.00 points from Home games, 0.00 points from Away games Against the Fairly Solid Six teams - 2.25 points from Home games, 0.50 points from Away games Against our fellow Strugglers - 2.75 points from Home games, 0.50 points from Away games At this stage of the season, the Strugglers are performing against these targets as follows: Saints - Down 2.75 points QPR: - Down 2.00 points Reading - Down 0.25 points Norwich - Up 0.50 points Wigan - Up 1.00 points Swansea - Up 1.50 points For me, this is the key league table. I'm not going to get too bent out of shape about losses at teams like West Ham because we didn't really lose 3 points - we lost 0.50 points against our target. Similarly, if we lose at home to Spurs, we won't have lost 3 points but 1 point. I'm not going to spiral into depression if it happens. We keep hearing that we've had a tougher start than most of our rivals, but this analysis helped me to put things into clearer perspective and made me feel just a little better. I can update it weekly if people are interested. Of course, this won't help much if our defence continues to play like a bunch of half-wits. I like this and am gonna print it and digest tomorrow as I have had a few beers and I can think it through better with a clear head...... I hope it is good ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaSaint Posted 12 January, 2013 Author Share Posted 12 January, 2013 I've moved West Ham OUT (they've already pretty much done enough) and Newcastle IN (close to free-falling and losing key players). Points Per Game Targets: vs Elite 4 - H 0.00/A 0.00; vs Middle 8 - H 2.00/A 0.25; vs Fellow Strugglers - H 2.75/A 0.50. TOTAL = 40.78 [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Pos[/TD] [TD]Team[/TD] [TD]Target[/TD] [TD]Actual[/TD] [TD]+/-[/TD] [TD]GD[/TD] [TD]vs Likely Strugglers[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]P[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]D[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD]PPG[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]26.00[/TD] [TD]25.00[/TD] [TD]-1.00[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]1.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]22.25[/TD] [TD]19.00[/TD] [TD]-3.25[/TD] [TD]-17[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1.38[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]28.75[/TD] [TD]25.00[/TD] [TD]-3.75[/TD] [TD] -5[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]24.75[/TD] [TD]21.00[/TD] [TD]-3.75[/TD] [TD]-12[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]26.75[/TD] [TD]21.00[/TD] [TD]-5.75[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.89[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]25.50[/TD] [TD]19.00[/TD] [TD]-6.50[/TD] [TD]-25[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]25.50[/TD] [TD]16.00[/TD] [TD]-9.50[/TD] [TD]-16[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]0.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]27.00[/TD] [TD]14.00[/TD] [TD]-13.00[/TD] [TD]-19[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Anything we get at Chelsea would be a plus against our target. We have the best record against Fellow Strugglers - even after home losses to Wigan and Sunderland. We have the third-best GD in the group. Our bench today scared the crap out of me and we certainly can't afford to lose Shaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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