Relegation, a statistical analysis...

[Dibden Purlieu Saint]

http://www.just-football.com/2012/10/how-to-avoid-relegation-from-the-premier-league-a-statistical-analysis/

 

The following is a statistical analysis of relegated and promoted teams in thePremier League

*over the last 17 seasons.

All stats below go back to the beginning of the 20 team era in the Premier League, which began with the 1995/96 campaign. Pertaining to this season it makes worrying reading for Southampton, QPR, Norwich and Reading fans and encouraging reading for West Ham fans, as I’ll explain later.

On average, relegated sides during this period have finished with*37 goals scored, 67 goals conceded, and a goal difference of -30. The most goals ever scored by a relegated side wereBlackpool’s*55 in the 2010/11 campaign. The fewest goals conceded by a relegated side were*Birmingham City’s*50 in the 2005/06 campaign.

In contrast, 17th placed teams averaged 39 goals scored and 60 goals shipped. The most ever scored by a 17th place team were West Ham’s 47 in 2009/10, the fewest ever shipped were Bolton’s 51 in 2002/03.

Statistically speaking therefore, if a team can*score*40 goals*whileconceding no more than 60 or thereabouts, they are a good bet for survival.

There will, of course, always be odd cases where a team is exceedingly stout defensively but is so unproductive offensively that even conceding between 50 and 60 goals will not be enough to ensure survival. In the past ten years, that’s happened to nine teams, so a little less than 33% of relegated sides.

Likewise, a team can be explosive offensively but so inept on the defensive side of things that they still take the drop. In the past ten years, there have been six teams – so that’s 20% – to score 45 or more and still get relegated.

From these statistics, I want to make a few observations:

1) There are two ways to give yourself a very good shot at survival.One is to score 45 goals. In the last ten years, only six teams have been relegated after scoring 45 goals. The second way is to concede 55 goals or fewer. In the same time span, only two teams have been relegated after conceding 55 or fewer.

The six 45 goal sides to be relegated are Leicester City (2003/4), Southampton (04/05), Birmingham (07/08), Blackpool (10/11), and Bolton and Blackburn (2011/12). The two 55 goal sides to drop are Birmingham (05/06 – God has something against the Blues, apparently) and Sheffield United (06/07).

The basic lesson is that competence on both offence and defence with a slightly above average performance in one of the two areas is enough to guarantee survival, in even the toughest seasons.

2) That said, QPR and Norwich fans should be a bit nervous. Both their sides shipped 66 last season, a figure distressingly close to the relegated side average of 67 goals conceded. Life in the Premier League requires a certain baseline defensive competence.

Analysis shows several teams have survived one season while conceding a lot, but most then take the drop in year two. (Bradford in 2002 and Hull in 2010 are good examples.) In fact, QPR would already have gone down were it not for the utterly shocking defensive record of last season’s three relegated sides, who shipped 77, 78 and 82 respectively.

To put how bad Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves were into perspective, in the entire 20 team Premier League era only 11 teams have shipped 77 or more in a single season. There had never been a season that included three such teams before and only once had two teams hit such marks of defensive incompetence. If Bolton or Blackburn had*simply been below average defensively, rather than laughably poor, QPR would have dropped.

3) The main takeaway for this year’s promoted sides:*a)*West Ham*should be fine*– their goal difference will be under control which helps in tiebreakers and they’ll steal a couple matches because of their defensive, direct style.

Allardyce-ball isn’t necessarily the best way to survive in the top flight for everyone, but it has served Allardyce well over his career. Plus if things do look dicey for the Hammers, they have the resources to make a buy or two in January, perhaps even bringing on a loanee from a top six side. Tom Huddlestone could be a good candidate, for example.

Thinking bigger picture, West Ham isn’t the sort of club that should be getting relegated in the first place. The Hammers are one of those anomalous relegated sides rather like Newcastle, Blackburn and Bolton, and like Villa nearly were last season.

Clubs of that size never drop because they lack resources or players. They drop because of mismanagement. So the above analysis doesn’t necessarily apply to those sorts of mismanaged bigger clubs. After all, there’s no accounting for stupid. The data is far more useful in assessing how minnows new to the top flight – like a Blackpool, Burnley, Swansea, or Reading – might fare.

b) And on that front,*the news is good for Southampton and not so good for Reading.

Last season Reading won the Championship with 69 goals and 41 conceded. Southampton came in second with 85 scored and 46 conceded. That suggests one side that plays a more conventional style and won fairly methodically against generally overmatched opponents and one side that overwhelmed the opposition with attacking verve.

Put another way, Reading won on organization and a talent discrepancy. Southampton also won thanks to a talent discrepancy, but were much more threatening on the attack, averaging nearly two goals per match.

Thus far, through six gamesSouthampton*have already scored 10 while conceding 18 (and if you take away the hiding at the Emirates, it’s a much more respectable 9 scored, 12 shipped). Also note that they’ve already faced both Manchester sides, Arsenal, and Everton.

Reading, in five matches including games with Spurs and Chelsea, have scored six and conceded 11.

Before I continue, I’ll freely concede that this is very early so such prognostications shouldn’t be treated like Holy Writ, but simply like the speculation that they are.

That said, I expect we’ll see Southampton continue to score at a Blackpool or Norwich-like pace. Because they are not nearly as stout defensively as last year’s Canaries, they’ll always be around the drop zone, but their fate won’t be decided until the last day. And as anyone who remembers the last day relegation chaos of two seasons ago can tell you, anything can happen on the last day.

On the other hand, I worry that Reading, lacking the goal-scoring ability of Southampton but similarly vulnerable at the back, will have a much rougher ride this season and will probably struggle to break 35 points and will likely drop at year’s end.

[Bucks Saint]

Exec summary?

[Ivan Katalinic's 'tache]

Exec summary?

 

We might go down, we might not.

[positivepete]

Norwich, QPR, and Reading for the drop, we will survive on the last day

[richardc]

Exec summary?

 

were DOOMED but not as much as Reading

[sotonian]

Fair play for all that detail but Isn't it just as simple as average a point a game and we will stay up

[badgerx16]

Exec summary?

 

It'll be close but Saints should stay up - Norwich, QPR, and Reading for the drop.

[Window Cleaner]

It'll be close but Saints should stay up - Norwich, QPR, and Reading for the drop.

 

So the exact status quo then, is that common that the bottom 3 after 7 games (6 in Reading's case) are the final relegation trio?

[Bucks Saint]

It'll be close but Saints should stay up - Norwich, QPR, and Reading for the drop.

 

Ok thanks. Wow that's deep insight from this article - never would have guessed

[tajjuk]

Basically the article is saying we have a better chance of staying up than Reading because we always carry a goal threat and will score goals, but our poor defence will keep us near the relegation zone. Reading however are defending as badly as us and aren't scoring any goals.

 

If we can stop the rot at the back even by a little bit without sacrificing our attacking instincts we will be fine.

 

Have to agree about Reading, just look at the Swansea game, whilst they got a credible 2-2 away draw, their Keeper played an absolute blinder and they were over ran by a Swansea side that had been struggling to score. They also got a bit lucky with both goals, first was a howler from Vorm and the second was a lucky deflection into the path of Hunt. They hardly created anything apart from that and Swansea had 25 shots in total and I would say 6 or 7 clear cut chances.

[Saint Garrett]

Basically the article is saying we have a better chance of staying up than Reading because we always carry a goal threat and will score goals, but our poor defence will keep us near the relegation zone. Reading however are defending as badly as us and aren't scoring any goals.

 

If we can stop the rot at the back even by a little bit without sacrificing our attacking instincts we will be fine.

 

Have to agree about Reading, just look at the Swansea game, whilst they got a credible 2-2 away draw, their Keeper played an absolute blinder and they were over ran by a Swansea side that had been struggling to score. They also got a bit lucky with both goals, first was a howler from Vorm and the second was a lucky deflection into the path of Hunt. They hardly created anything apart from that and Swansea had 25 shots in total and I would say 6 or 7 clear cut chances.

 

Same as last season then!

[The9]

So the exact status quo then, is that common that the bottom 3 after 7 games (6 in Reading's case) are the final relegation trio?

 

I'd be surprised if it had happened more than two or three times in 20 years of the Premier League.

[The9]

Same as last season then!

 

Yup, still can't believe they came away from half of the matches they played in March and April with wins, especially the two weeks before they played us, when *Someone* (can't remember, Palace?), then Brighton and finally we pummelled them and somehow lost.

 

Still, if you fancy a laugh, Google Adam Le Fondre's full name.

[The9]

I've noticed the teams who lose the most often seem to be fighting relegation.

 

Well, you say that but Sunderland and Stoke have only lost once (the same number as Everton and West Brom who are 4th and 6th) and are only 3 points ahead of us.

 

We've lost the most in the division (5 along with QPR) and we aren't in the bottom 3. Wigan have also lost 4 (along with Reading and Norwich) and are 15th.

 

So it's just not that simple.

[Doctoroncall]

It'll be close but Saints should stay up - Norwich, QPR, and Reading for the drop.

 

Not quite:

Reading for the drop - don't score but also concede too many

Saints should be OK but will always be around the relegation zone due to conceding too many

Norwich and QPR should be nervous as it stands

West Ham should be fine as they have Allardyce

 

So no surprises and no statistical analyses done or needed for those statement.

[derry]

I may be putting my foot in my mouth but I think we will get 40+ points maybe 44ish, just a ball park guess.

[Saint Garrett]

I may be putting my foot in my mouth but I think we will get 40+ points maybe 44ish, just a ball park guess.

 

Why the negativity....there is still 93 points on offer this season.

 

I think we'll finish with 97 and come the standard 2nd.

[Pilchards]

Following what he is saying, we can't win the league the way we are going?

[Saint Troy]

thanks dibden - its interesting stats that although people will tel you mean nothing at all to do with our future (and of course is the case for all stats) i enjoyed reading it - so cheers

[Saint Without a Halo]

Why the negativity....there is still 93 points on offer this season.

 

I think we'll finish with 97 and come the standard 2nd.

 

What! you mean we cant make the 100 now?

[The9]

What! you mean we cant make the 100 now?

 

Fewer matches in the Prem.

[The9]

"Glenville Adam James le Fondre".

[scotty]

"Glenville Adam James McFondre".

 

 

....my favourite whisky.

[david in sweden]

http://www.just-football.com/2012/10/how-to-avoid-relegation-from-the-premier-league-a-statistical-analysis/

 

The following is a statistical analysis of relegated and promoted teams in the Premier League *over the last 17 seasons. .

 

As someone who is partial to stats. myself Dibden, I mostly agree with the line where you state : this is very early to make such prognostications .......

 

I have said (repeatedly in the past) that I don't take a serious look at the table until after 6 games. WELL....we're not bottom (thankfully) and the opposition who've beaten us are all top six sides (except Wigan) and so

even our present position isn't a true reflection of our performances, or our potential..... if you consider the teams we have played already.

 

I really think that this is the sort of thing I'd look at in February and not October. The stats. of course are history and (I assume) correct.. but the bottom six teams we are talking about may well be in very different positions by that time. Liverpool may be mid-table...and Villa or Swansea below us? who knows? ..though we obviously hope that we can stabilise, which looks more of a challenge when you look at our present injury list, but that's football.

 

I admire your work on the stats. but we ought to wait a bit until we start to name the clubs are most likely to meet the criteria stated.

Edited 10 October, 2012 by david in sweden

['00']

QPR lost at home to W Ham & Swansea

Norwich drawn at home to W Ham & QPR

Reading No games at home to relegation teams

Wigan won away at Saints but lost at home to Fulham

Saints Lost to Wigan & drew with Fulham

 

6 pointers even at this stage,Saints 5 pts down......

[capitalsaint]

thanks dibden - its interesting stats that although people will tel you mean nothing at all to do with our future (and of course is the case for all stats) i enjoyed reading it - so cheers

 

+1.

[Cheese on Toast]

Fair play for all that detail but Isn't it just as simple as average a point a game and we will stay up

 

No.... 38 points probably wont keep us up

[sotonian]

No.... 38 points probably wont keep us up

 

I think you'll find 38 is enough most seasons

[CB Fry]

I think you'll find 38 is enough most seasons

 

 

 

It is these days. Point a game probably will be enough. Ten wins is what we need really.

[up and away]

So the exact status quo then, is that common that the bottom 3 after 7 games (6 in Reading's case) are the final relegation trio?

 

If we all keep going the way we are, it's going to be anyones guess who is going down. One of these teams is going to individually or collectively do that something a bit special that drags themselves away from the trap door and that will be it. In Ramirez we have exactly the type of player that may be able to achieve that, but being out for 6 weeks is going to severely hamper that prospect. We seem to be having our fair share of bad luck combined with our self inflicted, not a recipe for success.

[Cheese on Toast]

I think you'll find 38 is enough most seasons

 

The 10-11 season, 38 would have got relegated

[aintforever]

Those stats are completely meaningless in reference to who is going down this year. In the Prem it is as much about who you play as how well you play.

 

We've conceded alot because we've played Man City, Arsenal and Everton away and Man Utd home.

[St Chalet]

Did anyone bookmark the position predictor that was posted a few times on here towards the end of the season?

 

EDIT. Found it http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

Edited 10 October, 2012 by St Chalet

[Miltonroader07]

I think we will be fine; I don't think NA will be the manager though but we will be OK

[Cheese on Toast]

I think we will be fine; I don't think NA will be the manager though but we will be OK

 

Oh, You!

[ollysaints1]

I am not sure if we will we stay up, but im willing to bet that, in typical Southampton fashion, we will be playing for our place on the last day.

[Horton Heath Saint]

Brilliant analysis.

NC & NA would have sat down at the start of the season to analysis and pinpoint every fixture for the season and hopefully would have come to the conclusion of a mid table position.

There would always have been a target to meet, as in all businesses.

Where NC?

[Legod Third Coming]

Optimism aside, I think we will end up in the top ten.

 

When we play to our best, we are superb.

 

We simply need to iron out the idiotic mistakes at the back - Fonte has, Jos needs to (or Yoshida plays) Fox needs to, or Clyne plays at LB.

 

Aston Villa could have conceded eight goals against our first eleven - we tore them apart.

 

But as with any team in our situation we simply do not have the strength in depth.

[Ziggy]

I love historical stats. So and so hasn't won at Highfield Road for fifty years blah blah blah. What irrelevant nonsense. How previous teams have done has absolutely no relevance on the present. Yet the commentators insist on spouting these facts at every opportunity.

[GAS]

http://www.just-football.com/2012/10/how-to-avoid-relegation-from-the-premier-league-a-statistical-analysis/

 

The following is a statistical analysis of relegated and promoted teams in thePremier League

*over the last 17 seasons.

All stats below go back to the beginning of the 20 team era in the Premier League, which began with the 1995/96 campaign. Pertaining to this season it makes worrying reading for Southampton, QPR, Norwich and Reading fans and encouraging reading for West Ham fans, as I’ll explain later.

On average, relegated sides during this period have finished with*37 goals scored, 67 goals conceded, and a goal difference of -30. The most goals ever scored by a relegated side wereBlackpool’s*55 in the 2010/11 campaign. The fewest goals conceded by a relegated side were*Birmingham City’s*50 in the 2005/06 campaign.

In contrast, 17th placed teams averaged 39 goals scored and 60 goals shipped. The most ever scored by a 17th place team were West Ham’s 47 in 2009/10, the fewest ever shipped were Bolton’s 51 in 2002/03.

Statistically speaking therefore, if a team can*score*40 goals*whileconceding no more than 60 or thereabouts, they are a good bet for survival.

There will, of course, always be odd cases where a team is exceedingly stout defensively but is so unproductive offensively that even conceding between 50 and 60 goals will not be enough to ensure survival. In the past ten years, that’s happened to nine teams, so a little less than 33% of relegated sides.

Likewise, a team can be explosive offensively but so inept on the defensive side of things that they still take the drop. In the past ten years, there have been six teams – so that’s 20% – to score 45 or more and still get relegated.

From these statistics, I want to make a few observations:

1) There are two ways to give yourself a very good shot at survival.One is to score 45 goals. In the last ten years, only six teams have been relegated after scoring 45 goals. The second way is to concede 55 goals or fewer. In the same time span, only two teams have been relegated after conceding 55 or fewer.

The six 45 goal sides to be relegated are Leicester City (2003/4), Southampton (04/05), Birmingham (07/08), Blackpool (10/11), and Bolton and Blackburn (2011/12). The two 55 goal sides to drop are Birmingham (05/06 – God has something against the Blues, apparently) and Sheffield United (06/07).

The basic lesson is that competence on both offence and defence with a slightly above average performance in one of the two areas is enough to guarantee survival, in even the toughest seasons.

2) That said, QPR and Norwich fans should be a bit nervous. Both their sides shipped 66 last season, a figure distressingly close to the relegated side average of 67 goals conceded. Life in the Premier League requires a certain baseline defensive competence.

Analysis shows several teams have survived one season while conceding a lot, but most then take the drop in year two. (Bradford in 2002 and Hull in 2010 are good examples.) In fact, QPR would already have gone down were it not for the utterly shocking defensive record of last season’s three relegated sides, who shipped 77, 78 and 82 respectively.

To put how bad Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves were into perspective, in the entire 20 team Premier League era only 11 teams have shipped 77 or more in a single season. There had never been a season that included three such teams before and only once had two teams hit such marks of defensive incompetence. If Bolton or Blackburn had*simply been below average defensively, rather than laughably poor, QPR would have dropped.

3) The main takeaway for this year’s promoted sides:*a)*West Ham*should be fine*– their goal difference will be under control which helps in tiebreakers and they’ll steal a couple matches because of their defensive, direct style.

Allardyce-ball isn’t necessarily the best way to survive in the top flight for everyone, but it has served Allardyce well over his career. Plus if things do look dicey for the Hammers, they have the resources to make a buy or two in January, perhaps even bringing on a loanee from a top six side. Tom Huddlestone could be a good candidate, for example.

Thinking bigger picture, West Ham isn’t the sort of club that should be getting relegated in the first place. The Hammers are one of those anomalous relegated sides rather like Newcastle, Blackburn and Bolton, and like Villa nearly were last season.

Clubs of that size never drop because they lack resources or players. They drop because of mismanagement. So the above analysis doesn’t necessarily apply to those sorts of mismanaged bigger clubs. After all, there’s no accounting for stupid. The data is far more useful in assessing how minnows new to the top flight – like a Blackpool, Burnley, Swansea, or Reading – might fare.

b) And on that front,*the news is good for Southampton and not so good for Reading.

Last season Reading won the Championship with 69 goals and 41 conceded. Southampton came in second with 85 scored and 46 conceded. That suggests one side that plays a more conventional style and won fairly methodically against generally overmatched opponents and one side that overwhelmed the opposition with attacking verve.

Put another way, Reading won on organization and a talent discrepancy. Southampton also won thanks to a talent discrepancy, but were much more threatening on the attack, averaging nearly two goals per match.

Thus far, through six gamesSouthampton*have already scored 10 while conceding 18 (and if you take away the hiding at the Emirates, it’s a much more respectable 9 scored, 12 shipped). Also note that they’ve already faced both Manchester sides, Arsenal, and Everton.

Reading, in five matches including games with Spurs and Chelsea, have scored six and conceded 11.

Before I continue, I’ll freely concede that this is very early so such prognostications shouldn’t be treated like Holy Writ, but simply like the speculation that they are.

That said, I expect we’ll see Southampton continue to score at a Blackpool or Norwich-like pace. Because they are not nearly as stout defensively as last year’s Canaries, they’ll always be around the drop zone, but their fate won’t be decided until the last day. And as anyone who remembers the last day relegation chaos of two seasons ago can tell you, anything can happen on the last day.

On the other hand, I worry that Reading, lacking the goal-scoring ability of Southampton but similarly vulnerable at the back, will have a much rougher ride this season and will probably struggle to break 35 points and will likely drop at year’s end.

After a few beers and wine I'm never reading all this. Sorry. But I'll say we will stay up, but maybe go down, I'm really not sure actually.

[Cheese on Toast]

At the end of the day, if we play well we'll stay up, if we play badly, we may or may not go down, but it will be close. This article means nothing.

[supersonic]

Looking at stats, we're on course to get 20-22 points this season, which will probably see us relegated.

 

If we'd have held on to the points in winning positions at home so far this year, we would be 11th

[SaintBobby]

I think it will be about 32-33 points to stay up.

[capitalsaint]

Those stats are completely meaningless in reference to who is going down this year. In the Prem it is as much about who you play as how well you play.

 

We've conceded alot because we've played Man City, Arsenal and Everton away and Man Utd home.

 

Did you even read it? It talks about goals conceded and scored at the end of the season AND mentions your exact point.

[CB Fry]

I think it will be about 32-33 points to stay up.

 

 

 

If we aim for that we're down.

[Mowgli]

After a few beers and wine I'm never reading all this. Sorry. But I'll say we will stay up, but maybe go down, I'm really not sure actually.

 

So why the hell quote it?? It was bad enough to see it he first time....

 

We are struggling defensively at the minute that is for sure but I also think we are learning. With the current squad I suspect we ay just about finish round lower half of mid table. But with the January transfer window I honestly expect us o kick on and achieve a top ten position.

[Doctoroncall]

Did anyone bookmark the position predictor that was posted a few times on here towards the end of the season?

 

EDIT. Found it http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

 

Interestingly that it's saying there is a 46% chance of relegation for Saints if we get 40 points. it has been ten years since a team got relegated with 40 or more points. I don't think teams played against is accounted for or likelihood of team totals only results are used for projection so the table doesn't alter. Eg Liverpool has a 41% chance of relegation with 40 points.

[aintforever]

Did you even read it? It talks about goals conceded and scored at the end of the season AND mentions your exact point.

 

Mentioning that doesn't stop the rest of it being useless though. Taking stats from such a short amount of games and drawing conclusions is ******.

[notnowcato]

You can review previous seasons all you like, simple fact is that 4 points from home games versus Wigan, Villa and Fulham is as clear an indicator of our likely finishing place this season. We will flirt between 17th and 18th spot.

[SaintBobby]

If we aim for that we're down.

 

Obviously we should aim to get something out of each game.

 

But that doesn't mean 32-33 points will be insufficient.

 

If we go into our last game with 30 points, I still think we have a chance of staying up.