Saints and avoiding relegation - according to Reading fans

[manina-pub]

Some statistical analysis:

 

 

http://www.thetilehurstend.com/2012/10/3/3448554/the-reading-fc-roadmap-to-survival

[Sour Mash]

Some statistical analysis:

 

 

http://www.thetilehurstend.com/2012/10/3/3448554/the-reading-fc-roadmap-to-survival

Safe to say that chap has a bit of spare time on his hands? In summary, we should have beaten Wigan? Edited 5 October, 2012 by Sour Mash

[tajjuk]

Interesting read and pretty much spot on.

 

Apply similar thinking to our next ten games:-

 

Fulham (H) Target 3, min 1.

West Ham (A) Target 1, min 0

Spurs (H) target 3, min 1

West brom (A) target 3, min 1

Swansea (H) Target 3, min 1

QPR (A) Target 3, min 1

Newcastle (H) Target 3, min 1

Norwich (H) Target 3, min 1

Liverpool (A) Target 1, min 0

Reading (H) Best 3, min 1.

 

6 home games, toughest opposition Spurs, 4 away games toughest opposition Liverpool, the only place I don't think we could get any points.

 

Ideally from those games we want to be getting 24 pts, anything above 16 will be ok, if we have less than 10 it's not looking good.

 

We also have a very tough January/February which realistically could yield 0 wins, so to avoid being in a rut we need a decent amount of points on the board before the new year.

[Cabrone]

That article is roughly how most rational fans see things, for me the expectations were 3-6 points from these first 6 fixtures so we are slighly below par IMO but we'll only get a true reflection when we play the teams who are around us.

 

Add in the fact that we've had to bed in a few important signings and the fact that by and large we've played some good stuff and I'm OK with things at the moment.

 

IMO need to get Boruc in goal though, need to plug that defence as best we can. It's costing us.

 

QPR and Norwich should be concerned though, QPR lack stability and Norwich look flat to me.

[trousers]

Some statistical analysis:

 

 

http://www.thetilehurstend.com/2012/10/3/3448554/the-reading-fc-roadmap-to-survival

 

That's a decent piece of analysis. Would be good to have a sticky thread with a weekly update to the 'current state of play' table:

 

[TABLE=class: sbnu-legacy-content-table]

[TR]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=width: 70]MINIMUM[/TD]

[TD=width: 79]MAXIMUM[/TD]

[TD=width: 55]ACTUAL[/TD]

[TD=width: 75]+/- MIN[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]READING[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]8[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]-2[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]VILLA[/TD]

[TD]5[/TD]

[TD]13[/TD]

[TD]5[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]QPR[/TD]

[TD]7[/TD]

[TD]10[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]-5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]NORWICH[/TD]

[TD]7[/TD]

[TD]10[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]-4[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]SO'TON[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]7[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]-3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]SWANSEA[/TD]

[TD]10[/TD]

[TD]16[/TD]

[TD]7[/TD]

[TD]-3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]WIGAN[/TD]

[TD]5[/TD]

[TD]10[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]-1[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[BridgnorthSaint]

A Fair article and a fair minded perspective - Makes me cringe again about the Wigan game!

[pingwing]

If you look as actual as a percentage of the maximum we look to be in a lot better position...

 

Statistics can be used to prove anything, 83% of people know that.

 

My point is we messed up against Wigan, changing to 4-4-2 and having no real game changes on the bench ruined it, but we have learnt and will grow from it. I see his methodology for setting the min and max but it doesn't work as well for Europa league teams like Everton who beat United. The projections of what should be achieved are a bit flakey with our min being 6 and our max being 7 mean there is too limited room for us to achieve.

 

Also sticking to my guns that West Ham are up for a thrashing tomorrow and will show up how much they still are in the relegation dog fight despite having the simplest start to the season.

[Miltonroader07]

We just need to keep the faith and support the lads, nigel adkins help would also be appreciated

[tajjuk]

 

Also sticking to my guns that West Ham are up for a thrashing tomorrow and will show up how much they still are in the relegation dog fight despite having the simplest start to the season.

 

 

I haven't seen much from West Ham yet that gives so match credence to the media's belief that they will be comfortably in mid table.

[PokingFun]

A better way of calculating points expectation versus actual would be to take the best of bookmakers odds pre-game and apply them to each scenario of win lose and draw.

 

For example, the Fulham game is 7/4 Saints, 22/9 Draw, 7/4 Fulham. This means we have a 36% win chance, 36% loss chance and a 28% draw chance. Our points expectation is 3 * 36% = 1.08 + 1 * 28% = 0.28 therefore expected points from the game = 1.36 on average if the game was played several times. The Villa game was 6/4 home win, 9/4 draw 2/1 away (roughly) so 3 * 40% = 1.2 + 1 * 30% = 0.3 = 1.3 and so on.

 

Multiplying out the odds in this way (which are a very close estimate of expected results given bookmakers are judging specifically that and are usually very accurate) for each of our games would give us 5.36 points expectation (so between 5-6). Obviously, this early in the season is a bit too early to know if in the long run we will actually end up behind expectation, but theoretically we are currently behind to the tune of a couple of points from where we could reasonably expect to be.

[VectisSaint]

4 away games toughest opposition Liverpool, the only place I don't think we could get any points.

Probably the easiest of the away games to be frank, their defence is even more sloppy than ours. I know its unusual for Liverpool to be crap, but they are this season, even away to Norwich they were appalling at the back, and even our defence is not as much of a rag-bag as Norwich were for that game.