Transfer Strategy Question

[Winchester Red]

Ok, given the discussion on numerous other threads (I know what you're thinking, did we need another one?), I thought this simple question would get to the heart of how people think on here. It might even be worth a poll, up to the mods.

 

Lets say we need a big strong centre back (as if?)

 

We isolate 3 targets of varying standards but for simplicity they all have similar wage demands

 

We approach Target no 1, our perfect man, he says he's interested but wants an unspecified amount of time to consider (otherwise known as waiting to see if there are any better offers)

 

Do you wait as long as it takes for him? Or move on to target number 2?

 

Target No 2 is not quite as good as Target 1, he's decent has prem experience, but is probably a couple of years past his peak. He says he's very keen but wants to think about it. He promises to give you an answer within 2 weeks!

 

Do you wait for him? Or move on to target No 3

 

Target No 3 has been around but is still solid. He'll sign the contract now if you offer him one but he has another offer and is keen to get himself sorted so he won't wait for you to wait for others.

 

Do you sign him up?

 

This for me is the nub of the problem. NC could get players who are no better than what we've got tomorrow, but he doesn't want that. We've got a shot at better, but they want the best package at the best club they can get. They have no affinity with SFC (face it, only fans do). If you dismiss players because they don't just jump at SFC (lack of commitment some call it - I call it being professional about your career) then there won't be many left.

 

So which is it? Wait for the best and risk not getting anyone, or jump in and secure a player of a lower standard who could just about do the job?

 

Note that complaining that we didn't sign the best out there by yesterday isn't an option!

[Depressed of Shirley]

You forgot that the selling club might play silly beggars by quoting a price that means no one will be able to buy until they reduce it in late August. This could be called the Scot Dann scenario for want of a better phrase.

[Winchester Red]

You forgot that the selling club might play silly beggars by quoting a price that means no one will be able to buy until they reduce it in late August. This could be called the Scot Dann scenario for want of a better phrase.

 

Very true. There are a million other issues that effect transfers from hardball negotiators to last minute third parties crawling out of the woodwork to claim part of the transfer fee.

 

My point is that the situation is complicated enough in its most straight forward form (we'll see how many people even make a choice from the 3 options above), without considering all the other stuff that goes on, and yet people are always so disappointed that we haven't secured all of our key targets by the end of June

[Winchester Red]

Interesting that after 350 views and 7 hours not one person has stated a preference for Targets 1 to 3

 

Would have thought after some of the inane comments on other threads about our failure to secure signings that the answer was both obvious and beyond question to some people.

 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't

[Thedelldays]

I think we see players we like. Lots of them. And contact their agents

 

I am also sure we have agents contact us more often than not

[Dig Dig]

I think you have to hold out for target 1. Even if it doesn't come off, there will probably be a few target 3 types knocking about.

 

Interesting thread and shows, as the OP says, that even in it's simpliest form, a transfer can de difficult. Ultimately, we are only ever 1 party in the process which has multiple stakeholders involved.

[Saint Charlie]

I think you have to hold out for target 1. Even if it doesn't come off, there will probably be a few target 3 types knocking about.

 

Interesting thread and shows, as the OP says, that even in it's simpliest form, a transfer can de difficult. Ultimately, we are only ever 1 party in the process which has multiple stakeholders involved.

 

I'm sure we have a workbook for each transfer containing the key contacts, strategy and risk of each transfer. Meticulous planning gets the best results.

[Winchester Red]

I think you have to hold out for target 1. Even if it doesn't come off, there will probably be a few target 3 types knocking about.

 

Interesting thread and shows, as the OP says, that even in it's simpliest form, a transfer can de difficult. Ultimately, we are only ever 1 party in the process which has multiple stakeholders involved.

 

I also think we should hold out for Target 1, and show a little faith in the players that got us promoted and the kids coming through in the meantime

 

Judging by the quantity (and quality) of our signings to date this summer I think NC and NA think this way too

[Dig Dig]

I'm sure we have a workbook for each transfer containing the key contacts, strategy and risk of each transfer. Meticulous planning gets the best results.

 

As long as everyone is aware of the status of the transfer at all times and risks are escalated at the earliest opportunity, the club will be fulfilling their role as leaders in the transfer market.

[CB Fry]

Interesting that after 350 views and 7 hours not one person has stated a preference for Targets 1 to 3

 

Would have thought after some of the inane comments on other threads about our failure to secure signings that the answer was both obvious and beyond question to some people.

 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't

 

Well, targets 1 to 3 are just made up theoretical players, so there is no choice to be made, you're just inviting speculation on speculation on speculation.

 

What about target 4 - guarantees 35 goals a season but very likely to nail at least four current players' wives by December.

 

Or target 5 - is free transfer, great prospect, but asks to ring his mum halfway through the final contract negotiation.

 

Or target 6 - great player, highly recommended by his previous four managers, young and hungry, but by accident of birth is Welsh.

 

Which one do you sign?

[buctootim]

Well, targets 1 to 3 are just made up theoretical players, so there is no choice to be made, you're just inviting speculation on speculation on speculation.

 

What about target 4 - guarantees 35 goals a season but very likely to nail at least four current players' wives by December.

 

Or target 5 - is free transfer, great prospect, but asks to ring his mum halfway through the final contract negotiation.

 

Or target 6 - great player, highly recommended by his previous four managers, young and hungry, but by accident of birth is Welsh.

 

Which one do you sign?

 

You dont want to sign a player who is young but has four previous managers. I'd go for option 5, especially if his mum was Karen Brady. You are very ITK atm. Pm me the players names.

[Dig Dig]

FFS, don't start all this cryptic ITK boll*cks again. CB Fry should either share it with the forum or not say anything at all. I'm beyond begging for PM's.

[The9]

Surely the choice is to negotiate with all players who are suitable and see what happens?

 

No point in signing backups or cover anyway if they're worse than the current players, if you're bare bones (spit) then one of the kids might step up, and at least will get valuable experience, albeit possibly in a less than positive way in the short term.

[hypochondriac]

What a bizarre thread.

[Turkish]

We type in the attributes we are looking for

We hit "search" based on what we want

We check each player according to their value

We scout the ones we like the name of

We read the scouts view and bid if we like what we read

The bid gets accepeted or declined

We offer personal terms which are accepted or delined

We sign player

All this happens within about 5 key presses on football manger

In the real world it takes a bit more.

[The9]

What a bizarre thread.

 

It is a little heavy on the hypothetical.

[The9]

We type in the attributes we are looking for

We hit "search" based on what we want

We check each player according to their value

We scout the ones we like the name of

We read the scouts view and bid if we like what we read

The bid gets accepeted or declined

We offer personal terms which are accepted or delined

We sign player

All this happens within about 5 key presses on football manger

In the real world it takes a bit more.

 

Have I ever mentioned that I'm crap at FM because I can't be arsed with the overly complicated interface?

[Turkish]

Have I ever mentioned that I'm crap at FM because I can't be arsed with the overly complicated interface?

 

No but you have mentioned you once played semi professional football

[The9]

No but you have mentioned you once played semi professional football

 

Fewer times than you have in the last 12 months, I assure you.

[Saint_DB]

You dont want to sign a player who is young but has four previous managers. I'd go for option 5, especially if his mum was Karen Brady. You are very ITK atm. Pm me the players names.

 

Option 6 could have stayed at the same club but the club could be a bit trigger happy with managers, so doesn't reflect badly on the player. I know it's hypothetical but sounds a bit like Joe Allen, who is the subject of a few rumours right now. Don't know why being Welsh is a bad thing though.

[The9]

Option 6 could have stayed at the same club but the club could be a bit trigger happy with managers, so doesn't reflect badly on the player. I know it's hypothetical but sounds a bit like Joe Allen, who is the subject of a few rumours right now. Don't know why being Welsh is a bad thing though.

 

Lack of international tournament experience and frequent international call-ups for pointless matches are two of the more relevant problems I can think of...

[Saint_DB]

Lack of international tournament experience and frequent international call-ups for pointless matches are two of the more relevant problems I can think of...

 

Ok so Cork and Lee will be the only players who have senior international tournament experience, does that make our new signings Rodriguez, Davis and Clyne any less of a prospect?

 

I agree with you on the frequent pointless call ups though, I would get worried about injuries.

[The9]

Ok so Cork and Lee will be the only players who have senior international tournament experience, does that make our new signings Rodriguez, Davis and Clyne any less of a prospect?

 

I agree with you on the frequent pointless call ups though, I would get worried about injuries.

 

Nope, I was just suggesting some downsides of Welshness without resorting to stereotyping or irrelevances (much), no comment on whether these are problems with existing signings generally.

[SFKA South Woodford]

I know that it is probably not the case, but it does at times feel like the club put all of their eggs in one basket, identifying a target and going after one target at a time. There is another option to those above as well, identify three options of the best standard and approach each of them and then go with the one that moves the fastest/is the most keen to join us. If one of them is then dragging their feet, say boll*cks to them and move on. Not every transfer has to be a long and drawn out affair.

[Winchester Red]

Not a bizarre thread at all. Just pointing out the obvious really because some people seem oblivious to how f*cking difficult it is to get in the players you want, let alone to get it all done by the end of June.

 

I know there is a degree of trolling and hunting for a reaction going on by some but I also think (very scarily) that some people on here genuinely believe that we should have completed (or at least got a lot further with) our transfer business by now and signed all top notch players. You know, the ones that every club wants to buy and their current clubs don't want to let go.

 

I didn't expect many people to actually pick a target from the list of 3 (I also didn't expect someone to mock the question by adding a list of 3 further targets because that missed the point. There aren't just another 3 options, there are 1,000,003 other options).

 

I think the point is made and as you can tell there will be some that refuse to see that point. Tomorrow (whether Clyne completes or not, they'll be blustering again about the lack of a CB of a GK)

 

Mods - This thread can be closed now

[david in sweden]

An interesting thread .in some ways....but it's still not clear to me what the question really is? You can't have a plan B,C, D ........X,Y, Z according to who the player is.

There are clearly a list of; potential / possible / likely targets, most of whom are kept tight-lipped between the coaching staff, scouts and manager. After that it's down to the job of whittling down the " list " to best candidates.

How long such deals take to mature /or /fail might take months....rather than weeks if it's someone you are trailing. example; T. Lee, Billy Sharp.

 

What is clear is that NA wants a certain type of player (namely skilful / talented "home-based players" between 18-25 with some league experience who are teachable /open to being coached to do better).

 

This depends a lot of mental attitude /and their enthusiasm to play at SMS, and the impression they give with their body language / reponses. I think this may have been the downfall of a few transfer targets in the past.

 

There is little room for "prima-donnas" who want the team to work for their glory, but everyone must consider themselves "a first team squad player " - even if they have to spend half-a-season on the bench.

a further category is the older /experienced " father figure/role model " for these younger players who play with and help encourage them on the pitch.

 

KD is one such, as (I believe) Steven Davis will become in time. Although nowhere near the same accomplishments ...SD seems destined for the type of role Alan Ball took on when he joined Saints in 1976 (then aged 31).

 

 

HOWEVER; all of this falls by the wayside if the player's club, the player himself / his agent / 3rd party gets greedy and wants more than we are willing to commit...and there have certainly been more than a few of these over the years.

Most importantly -even if all of these above categories are not fully met, it's down to how they fit in the dressing room. A bad apple doesn't get riper...........

Edited 19 July, 2012 by david in sweden

[Winchester Red]

David - It's not so much the question as the answer

 

I was trying to use a really clear set of very limited circumstances to show that there is in fact no right answer (without the benefit of hindsight).

 

There is no correct option of the 3 given, and that's before factoring in the other million factors (selling clubs, fees, contracts, third parties, wags, lies, etc)

 

As I said before, fans expectations on signings make the club damned is they do and damned if they don't

[alpine_saint]

I think the reason no-one had answered with a short, definitive "Target x" answer, is that the question is a very tough one to answer.

[Dig Dig]

I think the reason no-one had answered with a short, definitive "Target x" answer, is that the question is a very tough one to answer.

 

Yes, which is the point the OP is making. Not sure why some have to be knob about it. I thought it was a reasonable question and makes a good point.