Europe the aim.

[shurlock]

You have completely missed the point. That example of Holt and Carroll still stands.

 

Yes, you generally need money to do well in the Premier League, but it is how wisely you spend that money that really matters. Saints spent less than West Ham and Leicester City last season...what happened?

 

 

The Telegraph found a clear relationship between how much a team spends and its final league position. It noted that spending wisely can enable teams to punch above their weight but it only secures them a few extra places compared to where they are predicted to finish on budget size alone. So by targeting Africa for forwards and becoming Francophones, Newcastle finishes in 5th rather than the 9th or 10th place it's budget would have predicted. Decent but not exceptional. The harsh laws of football finance still stand.

 

And of course we're talking about outliers, the shrewdest spenders, so this is the upper limit a team can hope for.

 

So no, you're indulging in wishful thinking, using your usual selective, cut and paste approach to facts to lend a veneer of rigour and respectability to what is otherwise ********.

Edited 13 July, 2012 by shurlock

[hypochondriac]

Premier League title is far from our reach for now, any club needs at least a decade to adjust to those standards sustainably (i.e. not City's way). Also I think we shouldn't mix up objectives and Adkins motivating the squad, which I feel is exactly what he is aiming to achieve with this.

 

Reckon that he is possibly trying to shake up some uncertainty that his players may have concerning Premier League times (most of them don't have the experience) and trying to make them feel positive about the adventure. Typical Nigel really, not saying know to any positive thoughts.

 

Everyone at the club is surely targeting a Norwich/Swansea for this first season. Given that we made it to the top in 3 years, NC and Adkins are probably looking at Europe qualification for the end of the 5 years from the takeover.

 

What do you mean by this? If you mean you feel that in a decade we could win the league by pursuing the tactic we are at the moment, then I would ask you what club has ever won the Premier League (or even got close) by doing that?

[sperm_john]

there are always negative people in life and always positive people, I know what I'd rather be

[hypochondriac]

there are always negative people in life and always positive people, I know what I'd rather be

 

Once again posters like yourself are failing to grasp what others are saying. It's about being realistic and looking at the available evidence (that no one has ever won the premier league without spending an absolute shedload). It's not negative to say that we won't win the league without an enormous increase in spending. Positivity and negativity doesn't come into it.

[Verbal]

Once again posters like yourself are failing to grasp what others are saying. It's about being realistic and looking at the available evidence (that no one has ever won the premier league without spending an absolute shedload). It's not negative to say that we won't win the league without an enormous increase in spending. Positivity and negativity doesn't come into it.

 

And yet it could be done, up to a point, with the right combination of circumstances and strategic approach. Billy Beane came as close as damn it to proving that in another sport (baseball, with the Oakland As). Clough and Taylor, before the Prem, did it here using a not dissimilar strategy.

[hypochondriac]

And yet it could be done, up to a point, with the right combination of circumstances and strategic approach. Billy Beane came as close as damn it to proving that in another sport (baseball, with the Oakland As). Clough and Taylor, before the Prem, did it here using a not dissimilar strategy.

 

FFS we are not talking about Clough and Taylor. We are talking about the here and now. Do you think that if the setup of the league stayed the same as it is now that a team could win the premiership and not spend an obscene amount of money? If you think it could happen then frankly I think you are deluded. Name one instance n the last twenty years where anyone has got close, top three even! It doesn't happen and it won't happen.

[shurlock]

And yet it could be done, up to a point, with the right combination of circumstances and strategic approach. Billy Beane came as close as damn it to proving that in another sport (baseball, with the Oakland As). Clough and Taylor, before the Prem, did it here using a not dissimilar strategy.

 

Always the desperate last stand - Clough did it. The early 80s were a socialist paradise compared to today -budgets were far more compressed. See the Telegraph report I mention above for a dose of reality.

 

And Billy Beane?!? People forget the epilogue of the story, that the mastermind of moneyball, Paul DePodesta went on to become GM of the LA Dodgers in 2004 only to be fired in 2005 after leading the team to one of its worst finishes in its history.

Edited 13 July, 2012 by shurlock

[Verbal]

FFS we are not talking about Clough and Taylor. We are talking about the here and now. Do you think that if the setup of the league stayed the same as it is now that a team could win the premiership and not spend an obscene amount of money? If you think it could happen then frankly I think you are deluded. Name one instance n the last twenty years where anyone has got close, top three even! It doesn't happen and it won't happen.

 

Calm down. You do know what Billy Beane did and how that relates to Clough/Taylor, right? Why don't you actually address the issue I raised rather than venting like an eight-year-old?

[Verbal]

Always the desperate last stand - Clough did it. The early 80s were a socialist paradise compared to today -budgets were far more compressed. See the Telegraph report I mention above for a dose of reality.

 

And Billy Beane?!? People forget the epilogue of the story, that the mastermind of money, Paul DePodesta went on to become GM of the LA Dodgers in 2004 only to be fired in 2005 after leading the team to one of its worst finishes in its history.

 

The Dodgers weren't a 'postscript'. They were a different team! Read what Beane actually achieved at the As. My point is it can be done. And why 'desperate'? Isn't it a good idea to be open to other ways doing things?

[Miltonaggro]

Calm down. You do know what Billy Beane did and how that relates to Clough/Taylor, right? Why don't you actually address the issue I raised rather than venting like an eight-year-old?

 

People are quick to forget that Cloughie was the big spender of that era, devastating football in 1979 when he signed Francis for £1m and paying £1.25m a year later for Wallace. All that with little old Nottingham Forest...

[Verbal]

People are quick to forget that Cloughie was the big spender of that era, devastating football in 1979 when he signed Francis for £1m and paying £1.25m a year later for Wallace. All that with little old Nottingham Forest...

 

He did indeed, but it wasn't a team stuffed with £1m signings, nor were Derby. But again, seen in he context of Beane's ideas, you can look at this differently. That's all I'm really suggesting.

[Verbal]

The Dodgers weren't a 'postscript'. They were a different team! Read what Beane actually achieved at the As. My point is it can be done. And why 'desperate'? Isn't it a good idea to be open to other ways doing things?

 

Actually, if you want the real postscript, the Red Sox nicked Beane's ideas and went on to break the Bambino curse.

[hypochondriac]

Calm down. You do know what Billy Beane did and how that relates to Clough/Taylor, right? Why don't you actually address the issue I raised rather than venting like an eight-year-old?

 

I am perfectly calm thanks. Not sure why people say calm down to someone who is typing something on a laptop. I am also fully aware of who Billy Beane is and what he did. You still won't convince me in any way that in this day and age and with the current setup that winning the league is possible without spending a fortune. There are a number of factors about the setup of the Premier League and football in general that mean that methods of this kind are different to those in baseball.

[shurlock]

The Dodgers weren't a 'postscript'. They were a different team! Read what Beane actually achieved at the As. My point is it can be done. And why 'desperate'? Isn't it a good idea to be open to other ways doing things?

 

No- Paul DePodesta was the wonk Beane hired at the A's and introduced Beane to moneyball. In other words, he was the purest incarnation of finding value in nontraditional measures of player performance. And when the sorcerers apprentice was let loose, mayhem ensued - see his time at the Dodgers.

 

Clearly stats can be helpful but if they do make a difference, you can be sure everyone -rich and poor alike- will pick up on their value and so any advantage will be temporary. If anything, bigger teams can invest more in this infrastructure.

 

And desperate doesn't refer to keeping an open mind - it refers to the fallacy of drawing on history when the world has changed. Budgets were much more compressed int he 80s -and as Miltonaggro points out, small teams could compete with the big teams on transfers and wages.

 

If anything, this vindicates -rather than undermines- the argument that money matters - except now its the prerogative of a handful of teams.

[hypochondriac]

No- Paul DePodesta was the wonk Beane hired at the A's and introduced Beane to moneyball. In other words, he was the purest incarnation of finding value in nontraditional measures of player performance. And when the sorcerers apprentice was let loose, mayhem ensued - see his time at the Dodgers.

 

Clearly stats can be helpful but if they do make a difference, you can be sure everyone -rich and poor alike- will pick up on their value and so any advantage will be temporary. If anything, bigger teams can invest more in this infrastructure.

 

And desperate doesn't refer to keeping an open mind - it refers to the fallacy of drawing on history when the world has changed. Budgets were much more compressed int he 80s -and as Miltonaggro points out, small teams could compete with the big teams on transfers and wages.

 

If anything, this vindicates -rather than undermines- the argument that money matters - except now its the prerogative of a handful of teams.

 

Fabulous post. Sums up the argument better than I ever could.

[Verbal]

No- Paul DePodesta was the wonk Beane hired at the A's and introduced Beane to moneyball. In other words, he was the purest incarnation of finding value in nontraditional measures of player performance. And when the sorcerers apprentice was let loose, mayhem ensued - see his time at the Dodgers.

 

Clearly stats can be helpful but if they do make a difference, you can be sure everyone -rich and poor alike- will pick up on their value and so any advantage will be temporary. If anything, bigger teams can invest more in this infrastructure.

 

And desperate doesn't refer to keeping an open mind - it refers to the fallacy of drawing on history when the world has changed. Budgets were much more compressed int he 80s -and as Miltonaggro points out, small teams could compete with the big teams on transfers and wages.

 

If anything, this vindicates -rather than undermines- the argument that money matters - except now its the prerogative of a handful of teams.

 

I know perfectly well who DePodesta is. I was talking about Beane's application of those ideas at the As, which you avoid discussing, and the fact that the Sox stole them and won the World Series.

[Danbert]

They were no where near until the money rolled in. Thats all its about now. certianly doesnt mean we are going to spend he cash to get there

 

but with enough money, any club could win the league. club size has little to do with it

 

Quite, I mean if f'ing Blackburn can win the league anybody can.

[shurlock]

I know perfectly well who DePodesta is. I was talking about Beane's application of those ideas at the As, which you avoid discussing, and the fact that the Sox stole them and won the World Series.

 

And I thought you were scientific old chap. Survivor bias and all that. So what if the Sox 'stole' these ideas, how about the teams that crashed and burned on them or ignored them altogether - Tony LaRussa, GM of the St. Louis Cardinals and world series winners in 2011, for instance, is passionately anti-moneyball.

 

Either way, why would an approach -assuming it works- stay in the hands of a poor team. Sport is driven by imitation and competitive pressure -if we discovered some magic way of picking players up on the cheap, why wouldn't other teams follow suit or invest in the same processes?

[Verbal]

And I thought you were scientific old chap. Survivor bias and all that. So what if the Sox 'stole' these ideas, how about the teams that crashed and burned on them or ignored them altogether - Tony LaRussa, GM of the St. Louis Cardinals and world series winners in 2011, for instance, is passionately anti-moneyball.

 

Either way, why would an approach -assuming it works- stay in the hands of a poor team. Sport is driven by imitation and competitive pressure -if we discovered some magic way of picking players up on the cheap, why wouldn't other teams follow suit or invest in the same processes?

 

And still no discussion on the point I actually made, which was about the As! All I'm trying to do here is introduce an alternative way of thinking about this. The As experience in getting so close to the World Series is interesting, is it not? And there were/are LEGIONS of coaches who are anti-Moneyball. That's rather the point!

Edited 14 July, 2012 by Verbal

[shurlock]

And still no discussion on the point I actually made, which was about the As!

 

What about the As - they've been a flop of late- they've had a sub .500 record and not qualified for a postseason for the past 5-6 seasons. Billy Beane is still there, doing his stuff.

 

Either way, you're not principally talking about the A's though! They're only relevant insofar as they represent a more general approach and argument that davids can defeat goliaths -hence the discussion of moneyball and its limitations...

[Saint_DB]

On the basis of the current squad we cannot win the league. But the current squad can do a lot towards that ambition by finishing as high as we can this season, which would in turn allow us to attract bigger players next season, and hopefully finish higher, which would attract better players and so on.

 

You get to a stage where it's all a bit Theseus' Ship but the way I see it these players could help us win the league, after they have been replaced in the future, and the current team's contribution will be as important as the players who would eventually end up (hypothetically) winning it themselves. Not suggesting it would happen any time soon, if at all, but in the long run any club could do that with the right ambition and a willingness to spend money in the right way.

 

I would be very happy with around 12th-13th this coming season, which with our money would give us a solid platform for developing further.

[Saint_DB]

Premier League title is far from our reach for now, any club needs at least a decade to adjust to those standards sustainably (i.e. not City's way). Also I think we shouldn't mix up objectives and Adkins motivating the squad, which I feel is exactly what he is aiming to achieve with this.

 

...

 

Everyone at the club is surely targeting a Norwich/Swansea for this first season. Given that we made it to the top in 3 years, NC and Adkins are probably looking at Europe qualification for the end of the 5 years from the takeover.

 

I agree, 5 years is probably the minimum for anything like that.

[PhilippineSaint]

It's not a game of football manager. Even if we spent the money and payed the wages required (which we won't), we are still a club in a backwater away from the bright lights of London and more appealing cities.

 

since when has London been more appealing than Southampton certainly not in my lifetime

[melmacian_saint]

What do you mean by this? If you mean you feel that in a decade we could win the league by pursuing the tactic we are at the moment, then I would ask you what club has ever won the Premier League (or even got close) by doing that?

 

That is why I mean that a lot will still have to change at the club before we can talk that kind of goal, and that takes time. Saints are just nowhere near there yet.

 

Let's not let the whole excitement of the last few years forget where we were in 2009, where we were even brewing beer to ensure our survival. Things have changed dramatically, but we've been down Horror Close (and what a dead end it looked like), so it's time to be conscious about the future. Right now (and in the next couple of years) the important thing is to ensure that we recover that stable, soulful PL status we had for most of the modern football era. My highly optimistic approach would be us reaching the top 7 (i.e. Europe) in 2 seasons, but there really is no reason to rush.

 

But again I think we're discussing nothing more than a motivational hint from our manager to his players, telling them to remain focused, confident and ambitious. The PL beginnings are usually a very tough test and you don't want to have something like 16 shaky legs coming out of the tunnel at the Etihad.

[PhilippineSaint]

That is why I mean that a lot will still have to change at the club before we can talk that kind of goal, and that takes time. Saints are just nowhere near there yet.

 

Let's not let the whole excitement of the last few years forget where we were in 2009, where we were even brewing beer to ensure our survival. Things have changed dramatically, but we've been down Horror Close (and what a dead end it looked like), so it's time to be conscious about the future. Right now (and in the next couple of years) the important thing is to ensure that we recover that stable, soulful PL status we had for most of the modern football era. My highly optimistic approach would be us reaching the top 7 (i.e. Europe) in 2 seasons, but there really is no reason to rush.

 

But again I think we're discussing nothing more than a motivational hint from our manager to his players, telling them to remain focused, confident and ambitious. The PL beginnings are usually a very tough test and you don't want to have something like 16 shaky legs coming out of the tunnel at the Etihad.

 

 

Hopefully we have 22 legs coming out or else we may be Pompey as they still only have eight players

[dune]

And still no discussion on the point I actually made, which was about the As! All I'm trying to do here is introduce an alternative way of thinking about this. The As experience in getting so close to the World Series is interesting, is it not? And there were/are LEGIONS of coaches who are anti-Moneyball. That's rather the point!

 

Maybe that's because nobody is interested in American football. It's ironic that the one time you post on a Saints related thread you talk about a completely different sport.

[Bearsy]

Maybe that's because nobody is interested in American football.

 

It's ice hockey dude

[dune]

It's ice hockey dude

 

That's how much I care about American sports.

[PhilippineSaint]

It's ice hockey dude

 

Your point being what?

[Bearsy]

Oh, I was investigating if Dune said American Footballs for funnies or if he genuinely don't know/care that the moneyballs was baseball. I still don't know, he's too slippery for me!

[PhilippineSaint]

Oh, I was investigating if Dune said American Footballs for funnies or if he genuinely don't know/care that the moneyballs was baseball. I still don't know, he's too slippery for me!

 

Probably didn't care as its not proper football who would?

[Bearsy]

Nah I think he was making a funny. I need to post something on topic now, I got told off for dis yesterdays!

 

Erm.... Soooo it would be quite nice to win the league wouldn't it?

[PhilippineSaint]

Nah I think he was making a funny. I need to post something on topic now, I got told off for dis yesterdays!

 

Erm.... Soooo it would be quite nice to win the league wouldn't it?

 

you are trying to tell me that we wont win the league ? after all we have spent and got rid of the dross apart from Fourpast. I thought it was between us and Man city and who ever won on the opening day was a sure fire winner for the season.

[Bearsy]

I'm actually surprised we're even gonna try. It seems a bad business plan to me. I'm surprised at NC, he's supposed to be this super sharp businessman or whatever. I remember when we got promoted hearing we was gonna earn £60m or whatever I was thinking what I would do is bank the whole lot, I wouldn't spend a single penny more than our Championship budget. When is the company gonna get the chance to clear £60m pure profit again?

[CB Fry]

Quite, I mean if f'ing Blackburn can win the league anybody can.

 

 

Transfer record smashing Blackburn you mean. For us to do what they did would mean buying Eden Hazard this summer.

 

 

since when has London been more appealing than Southampton certainly not in my lifetime

 

There's some lines of argument so ridiculous there's almost no point trying. Please, please god save us.

[Turkish]

Who's the bigger mong, the mong who posts on a mong board or the mong who declares he's never posting again and then stumps up his fiver subscription less than a fortnight later because he's getting withdrawals?

 

If you really have such disgust for this place, why not just leave like you said you would.

 

Please try and keep it civil and on topic from here on.

 

Ha, nice try but not quite sunshine. The money was taken automatically and I figured as I'd paid it I might as well continue to give you the benefit of my insight and humour.

[Turkish]

I love it how excited some of you lot are. As I'm sure Blackburn fans were when they read this

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/jul/26/blackburn-rovers-champions-league

 

That went well then. One thing to say it, doing it is quite a different matter.

[buctootim]

Ha, nice try but not quite sunshine. The money was taken automatically and I figured as I'd paid it I might as well continue to give you the benefit of my insight and humour.

 

Sadly not true. You're just a **** who cant stay away and thinks that by being negative about everything and everyone you are being so droll and boosting your cred to a little coterie of admirers. Wrong.

[Matthew Le God]

I love it how excited some of you lot are. As I'm sure Blackburn fans were when they read this

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/jul/26/blackburn-rovers-champions-league

 

That went well then. One thing to say it, doing it is quite a different matter.

 

The Blackburn Rovers owners have achieved very little, culminating in relegation. Cortese/Liebherr have achieved a lot in the last 3 years and invested a great deal.

 

If someone has previous achievements to their name, it is easier to believe their word over future ambitions, do you not agree?

[Bearsy]

Sadly not true. You're just a **** who cant stay away and thinks that by being negative about everything and everyone you are being so droll and boosting your cred to a little coterie of admirers. Wrong.

 

Hi Tims! How many fractions has you got? I'm doing leader boards in the muppet shows

[buctootim]

Hi Tims! How many fractions has you got? I'm doing leader boards in the muppet shows

 

I'm trying!! Trouble is I only have a go at Turkish and the mods arent interested in infracting me for that.

[Bearsy]

Lol yeah i noticed the mods themselves calling him a mong earlier. I guess he's like Ferdinands... it's open season and you can call him whatever the **** you like!

[buctootim]

Lol yeah i noticed the mods themselves calling him a mong earlier. I guess he's like Ferdinands... it's open season and you can call him whatever the **** you like!

 

Nah he's more like John Terry, deserves everything he gets.

[Turkish]

The Blackburn Rovers owners have achieved very little, culminating in relegation. Cortese/Liebherr have achieved a lot in the last 3 years and invested a great deal.

 

If someone has previous achievements to their name, it is easier to believe their word over future ambitions, do you not agree?

 

Do you not agree that if a manager comes out and says the club with no history of sustained success are aiming for the champion league he is doing one of two things. Telling people what they want to hear or has a reason to believe it is possible?

[Matthew Le God]

Do you not agree that if a manager comes out and says the club with no history of sustained success are aiming for the champion league he is doing one of two things. Telling people what they want to hear or has a reason to believe it is possible?

 

I'll give you an answer when you answer my question.

[Turkish]

Sadly not true. You're just a **** who cant stay away and thinks that by being negative about everything and everyone you are being so droll and boosting your cred to a little coterie of admirers. Wrong.

 

So bitter Timmy. What's up? Want to talk about it?

[Turkish]

I'll give you an answer when you answer my question.

 

It's one thing to get a club of Saints size promoted from L1 and the championship, quite another to get them competing on an even footingwith some of the worlds biggest clubs. Although clearly this is far too difficult for you to understand.

[westofshannonsaint]

thanks all for trying to stay on topic (this board has been a bit of a bore lately with all the b!tching that goes on)

 

I think some of us are getting hung up on "win the league - some day", or what ever the quote is. But, if we can go back to the challenge for Europe bit for a minute, I still think it is a realistic goal & stepping stone in the right direction.

 

If we look at some of the teams that have played European football over the last 10 years, I see no reason why we cannot play European football (again).

 

Ipswich Town (2002)

Leeds Utd (02)

Blackburn Rovers (02, 03, 06, 07)

Fulham (02, 09, 11)

Southampton (03)

Newcastle Utd (03, 04, 06)

Millwall (04)

Middlesborough (04, 05)

Everton (05, 06, 07, 08, 09)

Bolton (05, 07)

West Ham (06)

Aston Villa (08, 09, 10)

Cheats FC (09.)

Birmingham City (11)

Stoke City (11)

source (wiki)

 

Thing's change quickly in football, where were we this time 3 years ago? Where were Newcastle 2 years ago & now Alan Pardew has brought them European football once again. Is there any reason that we cant emulate that? Fulham got to the final of the Europa league.

 

Again, I feel that European football over the next 2/3 years is a realistic target. It certainly deserves a paragraph in our new 5 year plan. It's the next step up the ladder & achievable without putting the club at huge financial risk (given our current situation). After that who knows what the future holds. What will the implications of the financial fair play rules who and will go bust?

 

What does everyone think Saints short term goals (3 years) should be?

Now we are back in the prem am I a fool to think we should aim to compete rather than aim to survive, and hope for the odd upset/cup run?

 

Have the last 3 years spoiled me? have I been fooled into believing that Cortese is building something special? Other than OX has he sold any first team players?

[Gingeletiss]

Forest's new owners say they want to compete with Man City, and their fans applaud this, Our owners say it, and we get the same old same olds saying it will never happen...love our fans!!!!

[CB Fry]

thanks all for trying to stay on topic (this board has been a bit of a bore lately with all the b!tching that goes on)

 

I think some of us are getting hung up on "win the league - some day", or what ever the quote is. But, if we can go back to the challenge for Europe bit for a minute, I still think it is a realistic goal & stepping stone in the right direction.

 

If we look at some of the teams that have played European football over the last 10 years, I see no reason why we cannot play European football (again).

 

Ipswich Town (2002)

Leeds Utd (02)

Blackburn Rovers (02, 03, 06, 07)

Fulham (02, 09, 11)

Southampton (03)

Newcastle Utd (03, 04, 06)

Millwall (04)

Middlesborough (04, 05)

Everton (05, 06, 07, 08, 09)

Bolton (05, 07)

West Ham (06)

Aston Villa (08, 09, 10)

Cheats FC (09.)

Birmingham City (11)

Stoke City (11)

source (wiki)

 

Thing's change quickly in football, where were we this time 3 years ago? Where were Newcastle 2 years ago & now Alan Pardew has brought them European football once again. Is there any reason that we cant emulate that? Fulham got to the final of the Europa league.

 

Again, I feel that European football over the next 2/3 years is a realistic target. It certainly deserves a paragraph in our new 5 year plan. It's the next step up the ladder & achievable without putting the club at huge financial risk (given our current situation). After that who knows what the future holds. What will the implications of the financial fair play rules who and will go bust?

 

What does everyone think Saints short term goals (3 years) should be?

Now we are back in the prem am I a fool to think we should aim to compete rather than aim to survive, and hope for the odd upset/cup run?

 

Have the last 3 years spoiled me? have I been fooled into believing that Cortese is building something special? Other than OX has he sold any first team players?

 

 

I think everyone on this forum (and indeed in the fanbase at large) would think that we are perfectly capable of getting into the Europa League through a cup run or league placing. Perfectly, perfectly possible. You will struggle to find anyone here who doesn't agree with that view.

 

Also possible, but less likely, is doing an Everton (or a nearly-Newcastle) and finishing in the CL places. Yes, we could finish fourth once. But I don't think we should budget to achieve CL football or have it as a working target. That's also not saying people can't dream about it. They are quite free to.

 

I think it us that slight distinction is the battle ground for most of the arguments on here.

 

All you need to know is I am right....