Left turn for France

[pap]

Nicolas Sarkozy has become the 11th European Leader to lose office since the start of the financial crisis. He is also the first Socialist president that France has elected since the late 80s.

 

The new President, Francois Hollande, has been returned on an anti-austerity ticket, and is seeking to introduce growth incentives to the EUs current austerity plan.

 

Guardian article

 

Does this represent the beginning of a shift back to the left in centrist-right Europe?

[bridge too far]

I think it might be the return of growth rather thanb austerity policies across Europe ( UK excepted)

[TopGun]

There will be a fairly immediate effect on UK energy policy as Hollande is anti-nuclear. While that does not mean France will abandon nuclear power overnight (it generates over 80% of all its electricity from nuclear compared to about 15% in the UK), it does mean that is likely that the state-owned EDF will be told to wrap up new nuclear projects and concentrate on other forms of power generation. So that will mean the proposed new nukes at Hinckley Point and Bradwell will be put on hold as EDF attempts to sell it on its majority shareholdings in those sites. The two sites would have each been about 3GW and could supply about 10% of the UK's electricity needs.

[pap]

There will be a fairly immediate effect on UK energy policy as Hollande is anti-nuclear. While that does not mean France will abandon nuclear power overnight (it generates over 80% of all its electricity from nuclear compared to about 15% in the UK), it does mean that is likely that the state-owned EDF will be told to wrap up new nuclear projects and concentrate on other forms of power generation. So that will mean the proposed new nukes at Hinckley Point and Bradwell will be put on hold as EDF attempts to sell it on its majority shareholdings in those sites. The two sites would have each been about 3GW and could supply about 10% of the UK's electricity needs.

 

Do we know that though?

 

Those plants will probably make a ton for EDF, and the UK-based plants have the benefit of not being in France and generating income for the country.

[TopGun]

Do we know that though?

 

Those plants will probably make a ton for EDF, and the UK-based plants have the benefit of not being in France and generating income for the country.

 

Without new nuke in France, the UK proposals are not economically viable as they would make profit by benefiting from R&D costs picked up by French plants.

 

The exact same scenario has happened with Germany which Merkel has taken anti-nuke after Fukushima. The knock-on effect has been that RWE and E.on (both German companies) have announced they are dropping new nuclear plant plans at Oldbury and Wylfa. Wylfa is probably the best nuke site in the country also! RWE and E.on have explained that new UK nukes only make sense if they share the cost with new nukes in Germany.

[Window Cleaner]

The only change on nuclear energy policy in the immediate will be the closure of the Fessenheim reactor,the nuclear input is to be reduced to 50% (instead of 75%) by 2025 or something like that.For the time being Hollande has no majority to govern because the legislative elections aren't until June.I expect there to see a razzia for the FN,maybe they'll even get 10/15 deputies in the South-East and the North.As the Socialio-Communistes have an electoral pact with the Green they have to cede them 60 winnable seats.

That was the price of the Greens not putting up a front-line candidate in the presidential election.Then there's the problem of the hard leftie Melenchon,somewhere to the left of Stalin that bloke.They're going to put up candidates against what they believe are champagne socialists for the legislative elections as well.

 

All of the lefties and hand out lovers expect big gifts from Hollande, they probably won't get them though cos the Nation is skint,thanks to the ridiculous government of Mitterand and his commie buddies.

Edited 7 May, 2012 by Window Cleaner

[trousers]

Anyone know where Francois is going to get the money from to artificially stimulate growth? Just askin' like.

 

(Answering: "he'll follow the Pompey model of spending copious amounts other people's money to achieve success" is not allowed)

 

:-)

[Window Cleaner]

Anyone know where Francois is going to get the money from to artificially stimulate growth? Just askin' like.

 

(Answering: "he'll follow the Pompey model of spending copious ampunts other people's money" is not allowed)

 

:-)

 

Certainly not Hollande and his cronies :rolleyes:Mitterand policy was like that.

In the 7 years when I worked for the CNRS between 1984 and 1991 my annual salary spiked about 120%,some due to promotion but cost of living rises of 10/15% per annum weren't unusual.

 

The loony left have one creed "Make the rich pay" but the rich are already packing their bags for Switzerland,Belgium

and the Cayman Islands.Already Hollande's idea of a 75% tax rate for any income over 1,000,000 euros/year (only the excedent mind you) has been questioned by the constitution council as being pure and simple seizure of property.

 

Hollande won because people didn't want Sarkozy any more,the fact that the hard hard left and the extreme right totalled

somewhere near 35% of the first round poll says it all.

 

France is divided beteween those who want to see immigration stopped totally and European Union memebership

ended and a communist free for all where only the "rich" pay for everyone else.

Edited 7 May, 2012 by Window Cleaner

[sperm_john]

goodbye the euro?

[pap]

goodbye the euro?

 

Definitely an interesting scenario. The EU has imposed austerity on Greece, Italy, Ireland and Spain. In the case of Greece and Italy, they've actually replaced democratically elected leaders to implement it.

 

Now, suddenly France gets a change of government and doesn't want to play the austerity game. It'll probably get its way too. Shows where the true power of the EU resides, and gives an indication to what it really represents.

[TopGun]

I wonder how long Carla Bruni will stay with Sarkozy...

[Thedelldays]

hopefully, an end to this current EU sham

[Lord Duckhunter]

I read an interesting article over the weekend which said that Hollande had toned down his left wing rhetoric between the first vote and the run off. This was for 2 reasons. He had the left wing votes in his pocket already, they were never going to vote for Sarkozy. But more interestingly, he realised that he would not have the money to pay for some of his more wilder claims (hiring 60,000 new teachers being one of them, reducing the retirement age to 60 another). It's very very easy to talk about "plans for growth", but a damn sight harder to make it happen. If he follows through with his promises, he will leave the Country in more debt and in an even bigger mess than it is already. It will be interesting to see how the markets react and what rate of interest the French will be paying on borrowed money in 2 years time.

 

You will not be able to tell if this was a shift to the left or an anti Sarkozy vote until the parliamentary elections in June.

 

Anybody who thinks this will be the end of the Euro is barking up the wrong tree. The French & German elite are wedded to the idea no matter how much damage it causes their countries. Already a German minister said after this election result that "growth" targets can be added to the deal signed a couple of months ago. For "growth" he really means that the French will be allowed to fudge the figures and not stick to the agreed spending limits.

[Window Cleaner]

I read an interesting article over the weekend which said that Hollande had toned down his left wing rhetoric between the first vote and the run off. This was for 2 reasons. He had the left wing votes in his pocket already, they were never going to vote for Sarkozy. But more interestingly, he realised that he would not have the money to pay for some of his more wilder claims (hiring 60,000 new teachers being one of them, reducing the retirement age to 60 another). It's very very easy to talk about "plans for growth", but a damn sight harder to make it happen. If he follows through with his promises, he will leave the Country in more debt and in an even bigger mess than it is already. It will be interesting to see how the markets react and what rate of interest the French will be paying on borrowed money in 2 years time.

 

You will not be able to tell if this was a shift to the left or an anti Sarkozy vote until the parliamentary elections in June.

 

Anybody who thinks this will be the end of the Euro is barking up the wrong tree. The French & German elite are wedded to the idea no matter how much damage it causes their countries. Already a German minister said after this election result that "growth" targets can be added to the deal signed a couple of months ago. For "growth" he really means that the French will be allowed to fudge the figures and not stick to the agreed spending limits.

 

Well the article you read is obviously a bit approximative.French politics is by far more complicated than most other nations' because of the hefty extreme votes.Where else do the Front National get nearly 20% or the Hard Line Left nigh on 15%?

 

Hollande knows he doesn't have any room to manoeuvre,he'll probably bring back the lowest possible retirement age to 60 if you've got 41 and a half years paid up pension rights on the counter anyway.You can retire at 60 now if you meet the right conditions so that won't cost much,cheap votes obtained from an ignorant electorat.The 60000 educational nationale personnel hike

is over 5 years and it's not just teachers.There will be many civil servants converted from other obsolete roles to make up the numbers. Hollande will make a right old mess because the loonie left will make sure of it.The French voted for him because those that did want free hand-outs and state aided jobs. What you have to remember is that up to just under 1 year ago the Socialist candidate was the now disgraced sex maniac Strauss-Kahn, Hollande is just a poor substitute because the rest of them are too far to the left to gain popular support.

 

What Hollande can achieve will depend very much on the upcoming legislative elections.If there's a big protest vote to the National Front or even to the rampant Communist causes then the country will become ungovernable.Marine Le Pen is counting on this to obtain parliamentary representation again.Given the state of the voting in the South and North she may well get anywhere up to 20 seats. Then there's Melenchon,Hollande's policies will be too soft for him, he wants all out appropriation of any salary over 300,000 euros a year.The Hollande gouvernment will have to pander to the Greens,60 winnable seats must be allotted to them, it's going to be a right old mess.Won't make any difference to us though except that we might get to pay a bit more tax.

Edited 7 May, 2012 by Window Cleaner

[dune]

goodbye the euro?

 

It's been inevitable since it's inception. Greece is on the verge and then it's domino alley time.

[dune]

Interestingly the CAC and DAX are up slightly, but it'll be an interesting next few months that's for sure, especially if the no austerity parties in Greece form part of a coalition.

[Window Cleaner]

Interestingly the CAC and DAX are up slightly, but it'll be an interesting next few months that's for sure, especially if the no austerity parties in Greece form part of a coalition.

 

Wait until the London markets get on to the case tomorrow

[dune]

Wait until the London markets get on to the case tomorrow

 

TBH the French result wasn't a shock (it'd been factored in), and the Greek result wasn't a shock either. The next storm is brewing though. Greece is back in the spotlight and the NAZI's and the NO austerity party polled in similar numbers to the old main parties. There will either be a coalition formed or probably another election and if an anti austerity party gets in then they'll leave the Euro and then the whole thing starts unravelling. We are now entering the end game and I welcome it. The break up of the Euro is the way forward. These weak economies need to devalue. It is the only solution.

[Wade Garrett]

TBH the French result wasn't a shock (it'd been factored in), and the Greek result wasn't a shock either. The next storm is brewing though. Greece is back in the spotlight and the NAZI's and the NO austerity party polled in similar numbers to the old main parties. There will either be a coalition formed or probably another election and if an anti austerity party gets in then they'll leave the Euro and then the whole thing starts unravelling. We are now entering the end game and I welcome it. The break up of the Euro is the way forward. These weak economies need to devalue. It is the only solution.

 

If the Euro goes, what about the political integration?

 

The Euro was doomed to fail when it allowed its members to follow their own economic path. Membership should have meant a common fiscal policy.

 

The dream of a few jumped up political pygmies is turning to sh*t. Can we just go back to the Common Market? Keep it simple.

[alpine_saint]

Dont know why pap is getting all excited, I reckon yesterdays election results spell the end of the Euro, possibly the EU as well, and some pretty serious sh*t economic fall-out for a decade to come.

[pap]

Dont know why pap is getting all excited, I reckon yesterdays election results spell the end of the Euro, possibly the EU as well, and some pretty serious sh*t economic fall-out for a decade to come.

 

Oh dear, looks like we have a case of lazy poster makes unwarranted assumption. Not to worry, I am not entirely blameless on that front.

 

Not a supporter of the EU, have gone on about it here and would vote out of the EU in any referendum.

 

I also wouldn't mind a bit of economic fall-out, if only because it's a pre-requisite to a proper economic sort-out.

[View From The Top]

It will end up, as predicted by many, as a rump German/Northern Europe currency and be much more powerful for it.

[saintfully]

It will end up, as predicted by many, as a rump German/Northern Europe currency and be much more powerful for it.

 

Definately possible. Interesting to see where that leaves France though - head of a complementary 'Southern Block'?

 

Re. Trousers question of where Hollande gets the money from? Answer is Eurobonds to fund EZ-wide infrastructure spending; already given tacit approval by IMF and Merkel has accepted need for increased spending to stimulate growth. Also, EZ has a zero debt level overall, so plenty of room for manouvre if the Germans accept it. Their choice is Euro and spending or no Euro.

[ART]

Hollande's first act is a 30% cut in salary for himself, ministers and MP's. He will increase taxation to fund his spending. Given the current crisis, by 19th June when the parliamentary elections take place, the French may live to see very rapidly what a terrible thing they have done in throwing out Sarkozy. The best hope solution is that the UMP, centre parties retain hold on the parliament, with the possible return of Co-habitation, enabling the right to keep Hollande completely in check. His schedule is so full in the next 6 weeks internationally he's going to struggle to find time to know what the hell is going on. As far as Presidents go, Sarkozy has been an extraordinary President. Never before did a President apply himself to the task in hand, something Hollande is going to find a very hard act to follow. The Socialists say Sarkozy did nothing in 5 years. I beg to say, this is not true. He achieved much, put in changes that not even the Socialists will be keen to undo. Once his achievements are listed the changes he's brought about will be an eye opener to the French public. Let us see how Hollande does when he is faced by an even greater world financial crisis,

[Window Cleaner]

Hollande's first act is a 30% cut in salary for himself, ministers and MP's. He will increase taxation to fund his spending. Given the current crisis, by 19th June when the parliamentary elections take place, the French may live to see very rapidly what a terrible thing they have done in throwing out Sarkozy. The best hope solution is that the UMP, centre parties retain hold on the parliament, with the possible return of Co-habitation, enabling the right to keep Hollande completely in check. His schedule is so full in the next 6 weeks internationally he's going to struggle to find time to know what the hell is going on. As far as Presidents go, Sarkozy has been an extraordinary President. Never before did a President apply himself to the task in hand, something Hollande is going to find a very hard act to follow. The Socialists say Sarkozy did nothing in 5 years. I beg to say, this is not true. He achieved much, put in changes that not even the Socialists will be keen to undo. Once his achievements are listed the changes he's brought about will be an eye opener to the French public. Let us see how Hollande does when he is faced by an even greater world financial crisis,

 

Too true ART,those outside of France just do not realise just how much of the populace exist for hand-outs and that anyone who tries to stem that flow because financing them has become impossible has about a zero percent charge of re-election.

 

Where else in our world can you make as much from staying at home with 5 kids than you can by doing an honest day's work.

[Lord Duckhunter]

.

 

Where else in our world can you make as much from staying at home with 5 kids than you can by doing an honest day's work.

 

The UK under labour.

[bridge too far]

The UK under labour.

 

Many of whom would welcome the chance to do an honest day's work for an honest day's pay. Unfortunately their chances of doing so are evaporating fast.

[Window Cleaner]

Many of whom would welcome the chance to do an honest day's work for an honest day's pay. Unfortunately their chances of doing so are evaporating fast.

 

Whereas our problem is that the cost of maintaining the layabouts in their life of luxury is totally financed by those in employment thus making our competitvity inexistent. The minimum salary here costs an employer somewhere north of £12 an hour and that's a lot of money to pay for a bog cleaner or a counter assistant at McDonalds.

 

Just so that you understand the enormity of the drag of these people on the employed.For a person on minimum wage (151.67 hours at 9.22 euros an hour per month) before income tax the employee actually gets to take home about 1042 euros (ie 7 euros an hour) and the total cost to the employer is about 1900/2000 euros.So at the end of the day the worker gets about half of what he costs his employer,the rest is just snaffled up in "social charges" don't forget this is PRE-TAX.

 

A France without it's punitive "social charges" could create more jobs than it could fill because each job costs roughly twice the take home pay(pre income tax) that the worker receives.We are paying the Mitterand years and will be for a long time to come.

Edited 8 May, 2012 by Window Cleaner

[TopGun]

As anticipated, the election of Hollande has slowed work at the proposed EDF nuclear power station at Hinkley Point.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/14/hinkley-nuclear-power-station-delay

[pap]

As anticipated, the election of Hollande has slowed work at the proposed EDF nuclear power station at Hinkley Point.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/14/hinkley-nuclear-power-station-delay

 

Well called, TopGun.