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New 5 year Plan


Cheam Saint

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MLG proven wrong as usual :lol: This thread is getting silly now with posters suggesting we're better supported than Everton and Man City and on a par with Arsenal :lol:

 

You couldn't make it up. If this was on a Reading message board people would be going buts about how arrogant and deluded they are.

 

Im sure he'll come back and say we would have got bigger crowds than them if only St Marys was bigger. :rolleyes:

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You couldn't make it up. If this was on a Reading message board people would be going buts about how arrogant and deluded they are.

 

Im sure he'll come back and say we would have got bigger crowds than them if only St Marys was bigger. :rolleyes:

no wonder for the last few years...so many fans of other clubs call us deluded and arrogant

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Claiming that we have a bigger fan base than Everton despite having an average attendance some 6,000 fewer than their's is a new classic, to be fair :lol::lol:
You just know he's working away furiously in his bedroom trying to come up with some epic, convoluted reply. He should get out and go to some football and talk to normal fans, he'd learn a lot more about the game than on his computer.
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so, to get a stab at CL qualifiers (if we are lucky at the very least) is to whack another 6-8k seast on SMS

bring in 8 or so quality players.

spend circa £70-90m on wages for the standard of player we want

 

nope, not going to happen in the near future is it

I may start to believe when I see SMS at LEAST 38k

 

 

throw in the need by the chairman to be "self sustaining" and all that jazz

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Southampton averaged similar to that when they finished 20th and were relegated. If anything it shows Saints possibly have a larger matching going fanbase than Everton.

 

That's one of the must deluded piles of sh.it I read on here and that's saying something considering some of the things written on here.

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so, to get a stab at CL qualifiers (if we are lucky at the very least) is to whack another 6-8k seast on SMS

bring in 8 or so quality players.

spend circa £70-90m on wages for the standard of player we want

 

nope, not going to happen in the near future is it

I may start to believe when I see SMS at LEAST 38k

 

 

throw in the need by the chairman to be "self sustaining" and all that jazz

 

Actually if you look at this report an extra 6,000 seats wont make all that difference. Matchday revenue typically only make up 20-30% of total revenue for the likes of Tottenham and Liverpool who we will be competing with for 4th place. It's going to take a bit more than chucking a few extra seats on unfortunately.

 

http://www.footballeconomy.com/content/arsenal-do-well-matchday-revenue

 

http://www.footballeconomy.com/content/arsenal-do-well-matchday-revenue

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Actually if you look at this report an extra 6,000 seats wont make all that difference. Matchday revenue typically only make up 20-30% of total revenue for the likes of Tottenham and Liverpool who we will be competing with for 4th place. It's going to take a bit more than chucking a few extra seats on unfortunately.

 

http://www.footballeconomy.com/content/arsenal-do-well-matchday-revenue

 

http://www.footballeconomy.com/content/arsenal-do-well-matchday-revenue

I know..but we would HAVE to have SMS bigger to even think about competing....until I see that, I will remain on planet sane and lot live with the fairies

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Unless I've been reading incorrectly, the Nicola Cortese I've seen has consistently said that the aim for Southampton is to be run as a sustainable enterprise. In other words, we will live within our means and not rely upon a rich sugar-daddy to throw good money after bad at us. We are seeing some investment in the training ground, and I wouldn't rule out at some point some investment in the stadium to bring it up in capacity. What our owners will not do, in the case of Chelsea and Man city, is run up enormous debts on the playing side year after year.

 

Take away Abramovic's (and before him Matthew Harding) propping up of the club and you have a club the size of Everton, Villa, Sunderland. Without that investment, that's where they'll return to. And I don't see Cortese being as liberal with the purse strings as Abramovic; hence why I think its a pipe dream to emulate Chelsea.

 

Can't believe I had to justify that, to be honest. I'd have thought it was fairly clear. Guess not.

 

You are right of course... I think what NC 'hopes' to be able to try and engineer, is that we get lucky with a crop of youth talent that comes through at roughly the same time... and avoid them being snapped up and moving elsewhere before we get any benefit. No one is under any illusions that the very best will be off eventually, but if we can possibly create a culture and a contracting scenario that a) makes them recognise the value in staying until 21-23 at least, and b) financially; being in a situation where a sale is not necessary, then we have a chance to doing something amazing cyclically - now what that 'amazing' is, will depend on our own expectations - but a top 6 for me would be just that - its usually then down to 2-3 extra wins and CL place... which is where luck comes in. I dont think we will ever be in a position to be consistently top 8, but every 5-6 years we could just surprize a few people - the reason for the optimism? If we gain Category one academy status, we have a huge catchment area compared to many others - if the scouting network is solid, that cyclic crop could see us with an advantage, if only for the odd season in 5 or 6... that would certainly be more than enbough for me.

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We will not qualify for the champions league, or compete for the premier league. That will never happen at this football club, let's be realistic.

 

What is possible though is creating a sustainable and established premiership club, which can compete in the cups and flirt with the top 6/7 places in the league. That's probably the maximum this club can achieve in all honesty.

 

So when Man City were in Div. 1 in the 90s they probably felt the same way. Never say never..

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So when Man City were in Div. 1 in the 90s they probably felt the same way. Never say never..

 

Unless someone invests half a billion in players, then it won't happen.

 

Whatever happens, it's not a short-term goal. Long-term...who knows, and we're talking decades time.

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Unless someone invests half a billion in players, then it won't happen.

 

Whatever happens, it's not a short-term goal. Long-term...who knows, and we're talking decades time.

 

With the new FPP rules coming in this cannot happen.

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No they didn't, they averaged 28K in the third division.

 

Then that's good going compared to many sides who go down that far; I bow to your superior statistical knowledge. I'll wait for MLG to give the _exact_ figure.:-)

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In which case though' date=' when the current contracts at Citeh, and Chelski are up, what will they bedoing if they cant spend 80 mil on a new player?[/quote']

 

I have absolutely no idea. Although the fact that they are already champions league clubs will mean that they will already have far, far more income than those clubs playing catch up, of which we seem to think we are one.

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Unless I've been reading incorrectly, the Nicola Cortese I've seen has consistently said that the aim for Southampton is to be run as a sustainable enterprise. In other words, we will live within our means and not rely upon a rich sugar-daddy to throw good money after bad at us. We are seeing some investment in the training ground, and I wouldn't rule out at some point some investment in the stadium to bring it up in capacity. What our owners will not do, in the case of Chelsea and Man city, is run up enormous debts on the playing side year after year.

 

Take away Abramovic's (and before him Matthew Harding) propping up of the club and you have a club the size of Everton, Villa, Sunderland. Without that investment, that's where they'll return to. And I don't see Cortese being as liberal with the purse strings as Abramovic; hence why I think its a pipe dream to emulate Chelsea.

 

Can't believe I had to justify that, to be honest. I'd have thought it was fairly clear. Guess not.

 

Couple of things. First, there is no reason why Villa, Everton or Sunderland could not compete at a higher level in the Premiership and I expect you may see exactly that in future. There is no excuse for Everton's poor start to the season (every season) and Sunderland under O'Neil with a little purchasing power behind him and a full pre-season will be a totally different proposition. Villa have the stability and finance to be competing with Newcastle that's for sure. So if you said we could be a Newcastle then I would agree, why not? Yes they got lucky this year with Arsenal and Chelsea both underperforming... but...

 

Second, if Cortese tells you (as he has) that he sees us competing for the Champion's League why do you doubt him??

 

You are saying "I have seen no evidence that Cortese will finance us to Champion's League level" - well that's akin to saying that my 7 year old nephew does not yet have the £10m sponsorship required for Formula One... he doesn't but he has a kart, a helmet and is wiping the floor with the competition AT HIS LEVEL. That's all he needs to do right now.

 

Now, what I have seen is evidence that Cortese is not an idiot. Far from it. So if he thinks we will be capable of challenging for Champion's League status, he clearly has an idea how. Wouldn't you agree??

 

Maybe that involves new owners?

 

How many clubs do the richest nation on earth own in the Premiership at the moment...

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You do realise how much those 60k seats go for at the Emirates? And you seriously think we could do the same?

 

Not today, no. But if we're successful that's the price you'll pay, sadly.

Having said which, I get offers all the time for club seats at the Emirates, Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge for well under half price to make sure they're filled...

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Not today, no. But if we're successful that's the price you'll pay, sadly.

Having said which, I get offers all the time for club seats at the Emirates, Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge for well under half price to make sure they're filled...

well, they will have to be quick as we want to be self sustaining and all sort of fair play rules are coming

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I have NO IDEA!

 

The point is that if the Chairman aims for CL status (which I think from memory he indicated) he cannot be an idiot.

 

Ergo he must have a financial plan to achieve this, right?

Ruper Lowe claimed he wanted CL football......does not mean it will happen.

to achieve CL football...look at the finances quote many times above in this thread

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I have NO IDEA!

 

The point is that if the Chairman aims for CL status (which I think from memory he indicated) he cannot be an idiot.

 

Ergo he must have a financial plan to achieve this, right?

 

Well it aint going to be spending Man City amounts on players, he aint allowed too for a start. So what other ways of doing it are there and why aren't Sunderland, Everton and Aston Villa doing it?

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I have absolutely no idea. Although the fact that they are already champions league clubs will mean that they will already have far, far more income than those clubs playing catch up, of which we seem to think we are one.

 

Thing is CL revenue only gets to be around 25-30 mil if you get to the final... around 10 mil for those that complete the group phase and do not get through... cant sustain a team on that...

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Thing is CL revenue only gets to be around 25-30 mil if you get to the final... around 10 mil for those that complete the group phase and do not get through... cant sustain a team on that...

the top clubs, with advertising etc etc get way over £50m for being in the champions league

which, will be far far more than our whole wage budget next season I should imagine

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The Premier League title and Champions League qualification is beyond us, imo.

 

Premier League stability and top ten finishes, causing the occasional upset to the big 4 or 5, and threatening to win the odd cup will satisfy me.

 

Basically the sort of level we were achieving under Hoddle and Strachan.

 

But maybe NC thinks differently.

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Couple of things. First, there is no reason why Villa, Everton or Sunderland could not compete at a higher level in the Premiership and I expect you may see exactly that in future.

 

As said before; despite throwing millions of pounds in wages every year at the solution, Everton have finished 4th once and failed to get to the Champions League. Villa haven't finished that high in near on 20 years. and sunderland have never finished higher than 7th, despite having a 49,000 seat stadium. In fact they've gambled (and failed) so much on players & wages that they are now having to significantly scale back to avoid their crippling debts.

 

Second, if Cortese tells you (as he has) that he sees us competing for the Champion's League why do you doubt him??

 

Just because an ambitious chairman says what he would like to achieve for the club, I don't take it as gospel that we'll actually do it. Getting us to the Premier League again was a very good achievement, but not beyond the realms of possibility. I admire the optimism, I doubt the realism of the statement.; whoever it comes from.

 

Besides, how many chairmen of other clubs have come in and promised the earth? Just saying it doesn't make it so, and until I see the type of investment required to make it a distinct reality I'll remain a cynic.

 

Maybe that involves new owners?

How many clubs do the richest nation on earth own in the Premiership at the moment...

 

Without wishing to go round in circles, the whole new financial regulations are being put in place to make sure this type of investment can't actually happen.

 

Good for you if you want to believe we've every chance of being a Champions League regular. Please don't try and convince me though, I just believe otherwise; that if we grow from where we are now we could be a club like Everton who are above mid-table Premier League and might, just might in one year or two challenge for a top 4 spot. And I'll happily admit I was wrong if it turns out to be the case that you and Cortese were right all along and we become a part of the top 4 elite. Until then, I won't be expecting it. You do what you like though and keep reaching for the stars.

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Ruper Lowe claimed he wanted CL football......does not mean it will happen.

to achieve CL football...look at the finances quote many times above in this thread

 

Part of teh problem was that Lowe thought it was possible without spending big... er... not with the odd player from the academy it wasn't... Think the problem is, no one knows how serious NC was when he slippe dthat one out, or whether it was a simple platiude. If he was genuinely serious, he was either incredibily naive or he has a stragey none of us know about - with funding to support it.

 

I dont believe MLG is suggesting for one moment that we could be up tehre without serious investment or with enough financila backing to making it worth the best academy players to sticj around a few years and see what happens - but that if NC was serious and is not naive, he must have a strategy... now considering what has been achieved in 3 years - is that because we over achived or because the opposition was worse than expected? - so what is the plan, and what is the financila/ownership situation? we simply dont know, but I doubt NC is thinking of just being an also ran, not his style. Whether he has any reason to believe in better we simply dont know...

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"CL = Not a hope in hell.

 

Anything else = Why not."

 

 

 

Well put. My view exactly.

 

Having read all of the various arguments, I can find no rationale that could ever see us qualifying for the CL.

 

We however could quite possibly be challenging for a PL finish of 5-8 and a cup run every year. Thats a sustainable goal for a club of our size and whilst Cortese is here, I'm fairly confident we will do it.

When he and the Liebherr family move on, the biggest gift they can give us, will be no debt and a sustainable business model.

 

So 4th is completely impossible, but 5th is quite possible? :?

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The Premier League title and Champions League qualification is beyond us, imo.

 

Premier League stability and top ten finishes, causing the occasional upset to the big 4 or 5, and threatening to win the odd cup will satisfy me.

 

Basically the sort of level we were achieving under Hoddle and Strachan.

 

But maybe NC thinks differently.

 

I think in part it must be typical sports/business psychology... think big, aim high - you certainly have no chance without belief and a philosophy that you CAN.. be whatever you wnat to be. I dont believe he is that naive that he does not know its impossible without finance, or the luck and long term planning that sees a crop of youngster come good and STAY long enough to have an impact... which in itself requires major finance to offer the greedy scrotes enough wedge to keep them interested.

 

I think he was maybe being more aspirational - its about creating a winning and hungry culture afterall, but he has suroprized most with the astute running of the club to date, I would not be surprized if he he surprizes us again...

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OK. Let's try again.

 

I can't cut and paste and I can't have several conversations at once (I am genuinely trying to write a proposal but this is much more fun!!!)...

 

1. I don't believe that fair play rules will ever prevent some clubs spending more than others. Why would anyone want such a thing?

 

2. If they do come in and do prevent some clubs spending more than others (which I doubt and which I personally ABHOR as a free market economist) then we are as well served as any club, accepting that we have half as many seast as Arsenal but we can still sell sponsorship to anyone...

 

3. Those who doubt the Chairman's ability to make good on his promise are no doubt forgetting the scepticism which greeted his previous five year plan (delivered in three, could have been two if his manager had paid attention and not gone seeking silverware - which I applauded, hands up...)

 

So, those who do not think it is possible cannot have it both ways.

 

On the one hand you are saying we cannot afford it and on the other we cannot buy it?? Well make your fecking minds up. Which is it?

 

If fair play comes in, then we have every chance. If it doesn't, we have every chance that a Chairman who already found one billionnaire might just be connected to a couple more...

 

So where's your problem?

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Part of teh problem was that Lowe thought it was possible without spending big... er... not with the odd player from the academy it wasn't... Think the problem is, no one knows how serious NC was when he slippe dthat one out, or whether it was a simple platiude. If he was genuinely serious, he was either incredibily naive or he has a stragey none of us know about - with funding to support it.

 

I dont believe MLG is suggesting for one moment that we could be up tehre without serious investment or with enough financila backing to making it worth the best academy players to sticj around a few years and see what happens - but that if NC was serious and is not naive, he must have a strategy... now considering what has been achieved in 3 years - is that because we over achived or because the opposition was worse than expected? - so what is the plan, and what is the financila/ownership situation? we simply dont know, but I doubt NC is thinking of just being an also ran, not his style. Whether he has any reason to believe in better we simply dont know...

 

Come on Frank, it's one thing to take a club which is a medium sized premier league club out of league one, even the championship, it's quite another to take that club into the champions league playing with the biggest clubs in the world. Tottenhams revenue in their last report was £120m, £104m, more than our was in our last report. This is they type of sized clubs you lot are expecting us to compete for 4th place with.

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I think in part it must be typical sports/business psychology... think big, aim high - you certainly have no chance without belief and a philosophy that you CAN.. be whatever you wnat to be. I dont believe he is that naive that he does not know its impossible without finance, or the luck and long term planning that sees a crop of youngster come good and STAY long enough to have an impact... which in itself requires major finance to offer the greedy scrotes enough wedge to keep them interested.

 

I think he was maybe being more aspirational - its about creating a winning and hungry culture afterall, but he has suroprized most with the astute running of the club to date, I would not be surprized if he he surprizes us again...

 

I can see where you are coming from and this is where investment in the right people is paramount. Do we have the right staff to help produce and cultivate the next generation first teamers?

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Come on Frank, it's one thing to take a club which is a medium sized premier league club out of league one, even the championship, it's quite another to take that club into the champions league playing with the biggest clubs in the world. Tottenhams revenue in their last report was £120m, £104m, more than our was in our last report. This is they type of sized clubs you lot are expecting us to compete for 4th place with.

 

Well the freaks on here are. No Saints fan I actually knows thinks it.

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there are some anomolies here that people are failing to grasp. A bigger stadium will not (necessarily) guarantee a much larger income.

OK - extend SMS - (if you like to ...38K-42K), but where do the fans come from? Comparing our crowds with the two Liverpool clubs, of any of the major London ones is not a fair comparison as the Hampshire catchment area has a much lower population. Even those who would like to come have the restriction of travelling / distance, economy etc, especially if they come from further afield. If we compare Saints following now - with one of our better seasons ...2002-03, Strachan was Manager.

We finished an impressive 8th, James Beattie scored 23 league goals and we got to the FA Cup Final. 4 games had LESS than 30K, and 12 were in excess of 31K.

 

This season just finished we averaged around 27K ?... and 23 home games brought in approx. 620,000 people.

...Nest season with only 19 home Prem. games ..if we average 31K per game, that will be only 608,000

It is quite possible that a lesser number of fans will see the 19 home games next season than saw all of the 23 home NPC this.

 

Of course the club's income will be a little higher, as no-one expects prices to stay the same, but those who may "drop out " for economic reasons may be replaced by others who may not normally come so it may balance out. But as others have pointed out - gate receipts account for only 20-30% of the clubs annual income. It's TV money that will pay for the transfer fees and salaries + sale of the most promising Academy lad ..Who is the next Alex ?..and how much will he go for ...in 3-5 years time?

 

Increasing the size of SMS to anything less than 40K doesn't make economic sense - unless you can be guaranteed to fill it to 90% every game...and bearing in mind there's only 19 games a season now. Yes - it would be great to sit in a 40K+ stadium....but the cost of the extension would take min. 10-15 years to recover-perhaps longer.

 

The big income is in TV / media and merchandising. Sign another Japanese..or better still ...a Chinese. Are there any good players in India?.

The big income in future ...will be sales of shirts in the Asian countries....and sales of travel package deals to visit SMS on a match day.

Edited by david in sweden
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To say it's impossible is retarded. No one knows what the financial situation in football will be like in 5 years time, especially with these new rules taking effect. Also if Man City and Chelsea's owners walk away they will be f*cked and a whole host of clubs will be eying the spots behind Man Utd, Arsenal and Spurs.

 

Cortese is a very clever guy, in terms of handling the finances probably the best person we could have. He's stupidly ambitious and backed by one of Europe's richest families. I think he will surprise the local hobbits we have on here.

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there are some anomolies here that people are failing to grasp. A bigger stadium will not (necessarily) guarantee a much larger income.

OK - extend SMS - (if you like to ...38K-42K), but where do the fans come from? Comparing our crowds with the two Liverpool clubs, of any of the major London ones is not a fair comparison as the Hampshire catchment area has a much lower population. Even those who would like to come have the restriction

of travelling / distance, economy etc, especially if they come from further afield.

 

If we compare Saints following now - with one of our better seasons 2002-03,

Strachan is Manager. We finish an impressive 8th, James Beattie scored 23 league goals and we got to the FA Cup Final. Only 4 games have a gate of LESS than 30K, and 12 were in excess of 31K.

 

This season we averaged around 27K ?... and 23 home games brought in approx. 620,000 people.

with only 19 home Prem. games ..if we average 31K per game, that will be only 608,000

It is quite possible that a lesser number of fans will see the 19 home games next season than saw all of the 23 home NPC this.

 

Of course the club's income will be a little higher, as no-one expects prices to stay the same, but those who may "drop out " for economic reasons may be replaced by others who may not normally come so it may balance out. But as others have pointed out - gate receipts account for only 20-30% of the clubs annual income. It's TV money that will pay for the transfer fees and salaries + sale of the most promising Academy lad ..Who is the next Alex ?..and how much will he go for in 2-3years time?

 

Increasing the size of SMS to anything less than 40K doesn't make economic sense - unless you can be guaranteed to fill it to 90% every game...and bearing in mind there's only 19 a season now. Yes it would be great to sit in a 40K+ stadium....but the cost of the extension would take min. 10-15 years to recover-perhaps longer.

 

The big income is in TV / media and merchandising. Sign another Japanese..or better still ...a Chinese. Are there any good players in India?.

The big income in future ...will be sales of shirts in the Asian countries....and sales of travel package deals to visit SMS on a match day.

 

You are right

 

The fact that Tottenham and Liverpool who are clubs the "ei i ei I ei I oh, off to the champions league we go", brigade think we will be competing with for 4th place have revenues which are made up of only 31% and 21% repectively from matchday income prove that whilst a bigger stadium is nice, it's only a minor percentage of total income.

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To say it's impossible is retarded. No one knows what the financial situation in football will be like in 5 years time, especially with these new rules taking effect. Also if Man City and Chelsea's owners walk away they will be f*cked and a whole host of clubs will be eying the spots behind Man Utd, Arsenal and Spurs.

 

Cortese is a very clever guy, in terms of handling the finances probably the best person we could have. He's stupidly ambitious and backed by one of Europe's richest families. I think he will surprise the local hobbits we have on here.

No one is saying it's completely impossibe you freak.
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This thread is going from mental to insane.

 

No one knows what will happen in 10/20 years time, but in the short-term - which is what most of us are trying to say - we will be no where near the top 4, no where near. There's ambition and there's realism. For us to be in the top 4 in the short term we will need to get ourselves into the ****, which we won't be able to do anyway with the FPP.

 

We're not big enough to generate the income to compete at the level with Newcastle, Everton, Liverpool etc. Give it a couple of decades of sustained premiership football, and our good young players coming through the system, then we may have a different debate.

 

It's just insane to even contemplate it now. First and foremost we stay in the league next year, that's the target and should be the target. Anything else above bottom half mid-table is a bonus as far as I'm concerned and will equal a great season.

 

Steady as she goes etc...

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