The maths for Saturday

[Halo Stickman]

Thanks. I was of course talking about teams that are aiming for second and end up in third . And I was including the other two divisions. That's a 37.5% success rate, better than 25% but not much better than 1 in 3.

 

Well, come Saturday mid-afternoon, let’s hope it’s all academic anyway!

[The9]

Just for the record, to those saying "screw the maths", how would you feel if we "did a Man City" and weren't in the Prem next season due to playing keep-ball when we needed a goal ? Saints stayed up that season as a result of it of course...

 

The minutae is something that the manager at the very least needs to be aware of for tactical reasons (and I don't doubt they'll be on top of it). Consider the different responses required in these two situations :

 

a) Saints drawing 0-0, West Ham 5-0 up in injury time.

b) Saints drawing 2-2, West Ham 1-0 up in injury time.

 

If you're adopting the same approach to a) as b) you're a mentalist. In a) we desperately need a goal, in b) we desperately need not to concede one but don't need to score, and a trip to the corner flag is in order.

[SaintBobby]

Just for the record, to those saying "screw the maths", how would you feel if we "did a Man City" and weren't in the Prem next season due to playing keep-ball when we needed a goal ? Saints stayed up that season as a result of it of course...

 

The minutae is something that the manager at the very least needs to be aware of for tactical reasons (and I don't doubt they'll be on top of it). Consider the different responses required in these two situations :

 

a) Saints drawing 0-0, West Ham 5-0 up in injury time.

b) Saints drawing 2-2, West Ham 1-0 up in injury time.

 

If you're adopting the same approach to a) as b) you're a mentalist. In a) we desperately need a goal, in b) we desperately need not to concede one but don't need to score, and a trip to the corner flag is in order.

 

Totally agree with you.

 

Managers always say they aren't taking any notice of what's going on elsewhere - but that has to be rubbish if it affects what their own team needs.

 

One thing I'm adamant on from the get go is that Bart should be on the bench as we could easily find ourselves in a "must draw" or "must not concede again" situation.

[Saint86]

The saints are going up!! The saints are going up!! so would you please shut up!!!! Because the saints are going up!!

[The9]

Totally agree with you.

 

Managers always say they aren't taking any notice of what's going on elsewhere - but that has to be rubbish if it affects what their own team needs.

 

One thing I'm adamant on from the get go is that Bart should be on the bench as we could easily find ourselves in a "must draw" or "must not concede again" situation.

 

I don't think using "must draw" is helping your argument. "Must not lose" is more accurate - but West Ham streaking off against Hull will make it a "must win" pretty quickly anyway.

[The9]

The saints are going up!! The saints are going up!! so would you please shut up!!!! Because the saints are going up!!

 

Thanks for that. I also wholeheartedly support YOUR right to post complete drivel, FWIW.

[The9]

One thing I'm adamant on from the get go is that Bart should be on the bench as we could easily find ourselves in a "must draw" or "must not concede again" situation.

 

I also don't quite understad why having a second goalkeeper on the bench is going to help us not concede, its not like we can play two of them at the same time. I agree that we need a sub keeper on the bench generally though, especially with our attacking options limited by injury rather than numerical limitations anyway.

[Danbert]

No, but I expect us not to bottle the big matches, as we have done several times now in the past month.

 

You also make a fuss about us losing to Bristol City though. In fact every time we lose you seem to think the sky's fallen on our heads.

[The9]

Thanks. I was of course talking about teams that are aiming for second and end up in third . And I was including the other two divisions. That's a 37.5% success rate, better than 25% but not much better than 1 in 3.

 

But a 37.5% in a contest where everything being equal you'd have a 25% chance is a superb return rate.

 

I'd also question including other divisions where there's no parachute payment effect skewing the table, though that does depend on the overall bouncebackability rating of the relegated sides.

[Saints Warrior]

Saints win = Party and take **** out of Pompey

Saints draw and West Ham lose/Draw but not +3 goals = Party and take **** out of Pompey

Saints lose = We are ****ed

 

Will be Saints 4 Coventry 1

[Window Cleaner]

Saints win = Party and take **** out of Pompey

Saints draw and West Ham lose/Draw/Win but not by +3 goals = Party and take **** out of Pompey

Saints lose = We are ****ed

 

Will be Saints 4 Coventry 1

 

there think that's right

[Tom & Gerry]

You will know at the end of the game if we're up or not. Well, there may be more stoppage time at West Ham, but unlikely to be more than a minute or so's difference.

 

You mean some one will tell me. If we draw 1-1 and West Ham win 3-0 it will be pretty stupid for people to run on the pitch thinking we are up because of the head to head if as some suggest we have to play another game. I want to know.

[Whitey Grandad]

You mean some one will tell me. If we draw 1-1 and West Ham win 3-0 it will be pretty stupid for people to run on the pitch thinking we are up because of the head to head if as some suggest we have to play another game. I want to know.

 

Definitely head to head if you believe the Football League's own rules.

[Thedelldays]

surely, the only way it would go to he head-to-head was if we drew 1-1 and west ham won 3-0

[kpturner]

surely, the only way it would go to he head-to-head was if we drew 1-1 and west ham won 3-0

What about 2-2 and 4-1......and so on?

[SO5 4BW]

surely, the only way it would go to he head-to-head was if we drew 1-1 and west ham won 3-0

 

or, to be pedantic, 2-2 and 4-1, 3-3 and 5-2 etc

[Thedelldays]

What about 2-2 and 4-1......and so on?

ah I see

[Window Cleaner]

What about 2-2 and 4-1......and so on?

 

 

the only circumstance in which it can go to head to head is if GD is equal and goals scored are equal.

 

The current figures are: GD Saints +35 West Ham 32 GS Saints 81 West Ham 79

 

you just have to factor in the various possibilities and see if it's still all square for both of these figures.

 

So for Saints 2-2, West Ham would need to score 4 goals and win by 3 for the GD and the GS to remain equal.

 

You can work out all the scenarios that would provoke comparison of HTH results.

[Tom & Gerry]

I've found the rules. Head to head - it only goes to another match if it can't be decided by that method.

See point 9

http://www.football-league.co.uk/regulations/20110629/section-3-the-league_2293633_2125717#9

[kpturner]

the only circumstance in which it can go to head to head is if GD is equal and goals scored are equal.

 

The current figures are: GD Saints +35 West Ham 32 GS Saints 81 West Ham 79

 

you just have to factor in the various possibilities and see if it's still all square for both of these figures.

 

So for Saints 2-2, West Ham would need to score 4 goals and win by 3 for the GD and the GS to remain equal.

 

You can work out all the scenarios that would provoke comparison of HTH results.

 

Errmmmm, so I was correct then? Or were you quoting the wrong post?

[dubai_phil]

Tom Coull ‏ @TomCoull Think I've got this right... If Saints draw by 3 and West Ham win by more calculators than goal difference, Saints go up by Sun Tzu. Sorted.

 

 

Phew that is much easier to understand

[Window Cleaner]

Errmmmm, so I was correct then? Or were you quoting the wrong post?

 

yep, wrong post probably.

[Dark Munster]

The simplest and best hedge or insurance is to back West Ham to finish in the top two - currently trading at 5.7 on Betfair

 

Wouldn't it be even simpler (with better odds) to just bet on Saints not going up?

[KK the 2nd]

Wouldn't it be even simpler (with better odds) to just bet on Saints not going up?

it's the same!

[Dark Munster]

it's the same!

 

Not quite. If West Ham finish in the top 2 Saints could still get promoted through the playoffs.

[Dr Who?]

Agree with this, if we don't win Saturday then that would be only two wins in last six and not worthy of automatic promotion

 

Well if the hammers do not win we will be!

[Dr Who?]

or, to be pedantic, 2-2 and 4-1, 3-3 and 5-2 etc

 

****ing Brighton!

[saints_is_the_south]

Teh maths are simple in my eyes. WIN.

[Colinjb]

SaintBobby, thanks for the stats in this thread, I have blatantly ripped them off for posting in the new article on the site main page.

 

[Chin Strain]

The simplest and best hedge or insurance is to back West Ham to finish in the top two - currently trading at 5.7 on Betfair

Or Saints to make the playoffs - 13/2 on Bet365

[Cascadia Saint]

I cannot fault your maths, but having to so badly stagger over the finish line having led the table for the huge majority of time since September is for me galling and means I will view promotion as a hollow victory, but a victory nonetheless.

 

You're a ****ing loon. Pure and simple. Promotion is a hollow victory? You are supporting the wrong team. You're watching the wrong sport. You're on the wrong ****ing planet.

[The Kraken]

You're a ****ing loon. Pure and simple. Promotion is a hollow victory? You are supporting the wrong team. You're watching the wrong sport. You're on the wrong ****ing planet.

 

Couldn't agree more. If we do clinch promotion, and if you can't take anything other than complete joy from the past 2 seasons of success, then I'd suggest you probably won't find anything about supporting this side to make you happy. Which kind of sums it up, really. Yeah, its tinged with disappointment that Reading have usurped us, but my God, look at their form over the past few months, 15 wins and 2 draws from their last 18 games if I'm not mistaken. That's just incredible form by any standards, and there's no shame whatsoever to finish behind a team who can put that set of results together. And West Ham have perhaps completely bankrupted themselves in an effort to go up, finishing above them would be a huge achievement, let alone the fact we're a team who had just been promoted from League 1. I'm still completely staggered by how far we've come in such a short space of time, and if we can top that up with promotion tomorrow, in whatever form that takes, I'll be one of thousands of fantastically proud Saints fans.

[Toadhall Saint]

Couldn't agree more. If we do clinch promotion, and if you can't take anything other than complete joy from the past 2 seasons of success, then I'd suggest you probably won't find anything about supporting this side to make you happy. Which kind of sums it up, really. Yeah, its tinged with disappointment that Reading have usurped us, but my God, look at their form over the past few months, 15 wins and 2 draws from their last 18 games if I'm not mistaken. That's just incredible form by any standards, and there's no shame whatsoever to finish behind a team who can put that set of results together. And West Ham have perhaps completely bankrupted themselves in an effort to go up, finishing above them would be a huge achievement, let alone the fact we're a team who had just been promoted from League 1. I'm still completely staggered by how far we've come in such a short space of time, and if we can top that up with promotion tomorrow, in whatever form that takes, I'll be one of thousands of fantastically proud Saints fans.

 

This

[View From The Top]

Couldn't agree more. If we do clinch promotion, and if you can't take anything other than complete joy from the past 2 seasons of success, then I'd suggest you probably won't find anything about supporting this side to make you happy. Which kind of sums it up, really. Yeah, its tinged with disappointment that Reading have usurped us, but my God, look at their form over the past few months, 15 wins and 2 draws from their last 18 games if I'm not mistaken. That's just incredible form by any standards, and there's no shame whatsoever to finish behind a team who can put that set of results together. And West Ham have perhaps completely bankrupted themselves in an effort to go up, finishing above them would be a huge achievement, let alone the fact we're a team who had just been promoted from League 1. I'm still completely staggered by how far we've come in such a short space of time, and if we can top that up with promotion tomorrow, in whatever form that takes, I'll be one of thousands of fantastically proud Saints fans.

 

Like.

[Whitey Grandad]

Couldn't agree more. If we do clinch promotion, and if you can't take anything other than complete joy from the past 2 seasons of success, then I'd suggest you probably won't find anything about supporting this side to make you happy. Which kind of sums it up, really. Yeah, its tinged with disappointment that Reading have usurped us, but my God, look at their form over the past few months, 15 wins and 2 draws from their last 18 games if I'm not mistaken. That's just incredible form by any standards, and there's no shame whatsoever to finish behind a team who can put that set of results together. And West Ham have perhaps completely bankrupted themselves in an effort to go up, finishing above them would be a huge achievement, let alone the fact we're a team who had just been promoted from League 1. I'm still completely staggered by how far we've come in such a short space of time, and if we can top that up with promotion tomorrow, in whatever form that takes, I'll be one of thousands of fantastically proud Saints fans.

 

This time last year it never even occured to me in my wildest dreams that we might even be in the playoffs, let alone promoted, so much so that I booked a cruise which covers the playoff dates. I'll be back for the final though, if needed.

 

I'll take promotion by any way, shape or form and I wouldn't feel guilty or undeserving.

[derry]

Saints v WHU results 1-0, 1-1 if everything equal we are promoted.

[thefunkygibbons]

stuth!

 

Let's check how many games Coventry have won away from home this year

 

One.

 

Saints for a convincing win

[Glasgow_Saint]

Saints draw 1-1 and WHU win 3-0 and Saints go up (according to SSN) "better head to head"