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The maths for Saturday

SaintBobby

By SaintBobby
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The Kraken

The Kraken

Posted
Posted
...having to so badly stagger over the finish line having led the table for the huge majority of time since September is for me galling and means I will view promotion as a hollow victory, but a victory nonetheless.

 

Why is it in any way different to the reflection of form of us and Reading at the start of the season, compared to now? We came flying out of the blocks, Reading pretty much tripped over.

 

Any form of promotion is a victory; attachin hollowness to it is just an excuse to look for misery.

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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There you go again with the "screw the fan experience, here's the math" hack.

 

Did you audition for the part of Data in Star Trek and fail, or something ?

 

I cannot fault your maths, but having to so badly stagger over the finish line having led the table for the huge majority of time since September is for me galling and means I will view promotion as a hollow victory, but a victory nonetheless.

 

I'm choked. I really wanted to win the league and we had a great chance until blowing it vs Reading, Skates and Boro.

 

But 2nd is all that's on offer now. So there we are.

 

All in all, that'd be a great achievement.

 

You seem very confused as to whether I'm milking primary school maths or have the number crunching of a top android...

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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Why is it in any way different to the reflection of form of us and Reading at the start of the season, compared to now? We came flying out of the blocks, Reading pretty much tripped over.

 

Any form of promotion is a victory; attachin hollowness to it is just an excuse to look for misery.

 

I guess you're right.

 

But storming from, say, 14th at Xmas to 2nd on the last day surely feels better than being top for 45 games and dropping to 2nd in the final match?

 

It's the same outcome, but a different ride...

The Kraken

The Kraken

Posted
Posted
I guess you're right.

 

But storming from, say, 14th at Xmas to 2nd on the last day surely feels better than being top for 45 games and dropping to 2nd in the final match?

 

It's the same outcome, but a different ride...

 

Of course it feels better. But its no more or no less an achievement, just because the overall order of results are different.

 

I'll happily see us stagger over the line if it means we go up. Aside from how long my nerves will hold out, I'll take any sort of promotion as a massive achievement.

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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Of course it feels better. But its no more or no less an achievement, just because the overall order of results are different.

 

I'll happily see us stagger over the line if it means we go up. Aside from how long my nerves will hold out, I'll take any sort of promotion as a massive achievement.

 

Aye.

 

Am with you there.

 

I'd take anything and anyway to get 2nd - including a flukey Hull equaliser at West Ham in the 90th minute.

 

Too late to care about the route now, I just want the destination even if we crawl there.

 

And you're right, back-to-back promotions would be a truly stunning achievement.

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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Get over it! I have - finally. Get on this thread http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?37471-Positive-points-ahead-of-Saturday

and post some positives. We need nothing but positivity from now on. Positive posts, positive tweets, positive texts, positive conversations. If anyone gives you a negative vibe, kick 'em in the nuts (if they have any).

 

Count on it.

 

I travelled from London to Southampton on Saturday just to watch the game in a pub in the city.

 

Ok, not as heroic as going to Boro but still pretty emotionally committed...

 

What's happened has happened and I'm sure we'll beat Coventry with ease and I'll be there screaming on the lads even if the going gets tough.

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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No, its a must win. Simple. I know mathematically a draw or even defeat may be enough, but quite frankly we have to win for it to be in our hands. Really don't see why we need to have Bart on the bench. What we need is 5 strikers on the bench, and keep attacking even if we go 2 up. If we try to sit on a lead we will sit further and further back and in the end will concede and then we will panic. Attack is the best form of defence.

 

You don't seriously mean this, do you?

Dark Munster

Dark Munster

Posted
Posted
So is this right.

We win - saints up

We lose, they win - west ham

Up

We draw 0-0, west will

Need to win by 3

We get a score draw, west ham will need to win by 4

 

????

 

They still only need to win by 3, as long as they score 3 more than us.

Picard

Picard

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Posted
If Southampton draw on the final day and West Ham win but score four more goals than the Saints, their records would be identical. This would bring about a special play-off, in which the winner would secure promotion while the loser would enter the regular play-offs.

 

From the BBC Leicester West Ham match report.:scared:

There when Franny scored

There when Franny scored

Posted
Posted
From the BBC Leicester West Ham match report.:scared:

 

On the BBC match report I'm looking at it says

 

Final day permutations

"If Southampton draw on the final day and West Ham win but score four more goals than the Saints, their records would be identical. Their head-to-head record would then be taken into account, which Southampton would win after a 1-0 win and 1-1 draw"

 

Is that right? If they score 4 more than us they are up irrespective, aren't they?

stinhk

stinhk

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Simple maths right here. Beat an already relegated side = promotion.

 

Lets face it; if we can't do that, we probably don't deserve to go up.

 

So if we lose and west ham fail to win you're saying we don't deserve to go up - despite finishing second? Strange logic.

Picard

Picard

Posted
Posted
On the BBC match report I'm looking at it says

 

Final day permutations

"If Southampton draw on the final day and West Ham win but score four more goals than the Saints, their records would be identical. Their head-to-head record would then be taken into account, which Southampton would win after a 1-0 win and 1-1 draw"

 

 

Is that right? If they score 4 more than us they are up irrespective, aren't they?

 

You are right! They have changed it.

Thedelldays

Thedelldays

Posted
Posted
They still only need to win by 3, as long as they score 3 more than us.

 

But if we draw 2-2. They will match our GD but not goals scored

 

Matters not. West ham will batter hull

Like we will batter Coventry

BallBoy

BallBoy

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Posted

Another factor, perhaps not highlighted yet:

 

If we draw and WHU win then the higher the number of goals we score then the more WHU have to score. So a 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 etc is better. Is that right?

 

However, Adkins will set us up to win and I believe we will. I am nervous as hell but it will be a cracking game.

Thedelldays

Thedelldays

Posted
Posted
Another factor, perhaps not highlighted yet:

 

If we draw and WHU win then the higher the number of goals we score then the more WHU have to score. So a 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 etc is better. Is that right?

 

However, Adkins will set us up to win and I believe we will. I am nervous as hell but it will be a cracking game.

 

No as if we draw 5-5, our GD is still +3

alpine_saint

alpine_saint

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I'm not entirely sure your thread managed even nursery school maths.

 

It was just "look at me, look at me, please, please look at me"

And some of the other closed threads had folk asking what happens if there's a complete tie etc.

 

Everything you need to know - which isn't PhD maths, agreed - is in the 1st post here.

 

HTH.

 

Nope, it was a p*ss take at those of you inable to see that its covered by another thread before starting your "look at me" thread.

 

You might have summed up the maths best, but you could have put it on an existing thread.

 

My thread was a parody of that.

 

Do you know the word "parody" ???

modern matron

modern matron

Posted
Posted
But if we draw 2-2. They will match our GD but not goals scored

 

Matters not. West ham will batter hull

Like we will batter Coventry

 

Maybe you're right, but it's a big ask to have to win your last game by 3 clear goals. I think that's added pressure. As for Hull who knows? They've got a very good defensive record and are unbeaten in 4......

kpturner

kpturner

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Posted
What are the betting odds on West Ham to win by 3 goals or more? I feel another emotion covering bet coming on!
BetVictor has 3-0 and 16/1. 4-1 is 20/1. After that you are getting 40 and 50 to 1.
S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
Posted
What are the betting odds on West Ham to win by 3 goals or more? I feel another emotion covering bet coming on!

 

Don't think I could do that! I put a bet on last night because it was kind of win-win, if WHU win I pocket £160 odd (oh yes!) and we have it in our hands on the last day....but if they didn't win, I lose 60 but we'd have had a premiership team!

 

Betting on this weekend would be too much for me...

mirrorcarp

mirrorcarp

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Posted
What are the betting odds on West Ham to win by 3 goals or more? I feel another emotion covering bet coming on!

At the end of last season and in the last few weeks of this season i have been betting on all the teams i want to lose to win.The simple reason being that i never ever win thus assuring positive outcomes for my beloved saints.Last night for the first time this strategy failed and i actually won a decent bit of cash.I feel dirty and take no pleasure in the money so i will be trying to lose it again at the weekend.

 

West ham win and coventry win pays 13/1

West ham win and coventry draw pays 7/1

 

I believe only these results would result in us not going up.

 

I have bet enough on each scenario that should the worst happen then next years season ticket will be paid for.

 

BUT we will win and the best case scenario is that i lose every penny.

 

Come on saints , lets make southampton a major party zone saturday.

stev2001

stev2001

Posted
Posted
Coventry 10-1 to win for anyone wanted to lay off potential disappointment.

I'm putting £20 on. If the un thinkable happens that should be enough for a night out to forget about it.

Only trouble is with my luck, saints will draw and west ham win big resulting in the playoffs for us and me £20 light. :(

once_bitterne

once_bitterne

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Posted

Can someone please confirm, if we are level on points and goal differnence then the next diferentiator is head to head record? (i.e. this happens before goals scored would take effect?)

 

It would obvious be good for us if it was head to head before goals scored.

KK the 2nd

KK the 2nd

Posted
Posted
I'm putting £20 on. If the un thinkable happens that should be enough for a night out to forget about it.

Only trouble is with my luck, saints will draw and west ham win big resulting in the playoffs for us and me £20 light. :(

The simplest and best hedge or insurance is to back West Ham to finish in the top two - currently trading at 5.7 on Betfair
Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

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Posted
Just chill, we will win., we'll win.

 

I do not doubt this, hope Nigel puts the right side out though.Didn't think much of last Saturday's,cannot see why we keep playing Butterfield,don't much rate Chaplow either but he did play quite well apart from those vital moments when he actually needed to control the ball of course.

once_bitterne

once_bitterne

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Posted

Surely someone must know what the tie breakers are! It seems a mystery, even media sites are talking of coins tosses(!), play-offs and the like!Is it?1. Points2. Goal Difference3. Goals scored4. Head to HeadOnly, I am not at all sure which way round 3 and 4 go. Surely someone must have a Football League rulebook to hand!

grammy

grammy

Posted
Posted

I don't think Nigel will allow the team to psychologicaly "bottle" it like some of our fans seem to have. We need to stay focused and ramp up the atmosphere for the full 90 on Sat and we will be fine. Wouldn't swap our situation with West Ham in a million years. Lets get St Mary's rockin from the start. Us fans can play a huge part. Negativity and nerves will not help the players. This is the "cup final" to achieve ours and Markus's dream so let's all man up and make sure we all do what we can. COYR WIFM

del boy

del boy

Posted
Posted
Don't think I could do that! I put a bet on last night because it was kind of win-win, if WHU win I pocket £160 odd (oh yes!) and we have it in our hands on the last day....but if they didn't win, I lose 60 but we'd have had a premiership team!

 

Betting on this weekend would be too much for me...

 

Just what I did - now I've split my winnings between a Cov win, Cov draw and WH win - minimum of £250 if the unthinkable should happen

del boy

del boy

Posted
Posted
i don't think nigel will allow the team to psychologicaly "bottle" it like some of our fans seem to have. We need to stay focused and ramp up the atmosphere for the full 90 on sat and we will be fine. Wouldn't swap our situation with west ham in a million years. Lets get st mary's rockin from the start. Us fans can play a huge part. Negativity and nerves will not help the players. This is the "cup final" to achieve ours and markus's dream so let's all man up and make sure we all do what we can. Coyr wifm

 

well said!

alpine_saint

alpine_saint

Posted
Posted
I don't think Nigel will allow the team to psychologicaly "bottle" it like some of our fans seem to have. We need to stay focused and ramp up the atmosphere for the full 90 on Sat and we will be fine. Wouldn't swap our situation with West Ham in a million years. Lets get St Mary's rockin from the start. Us fans can play a huge part. Negativity and nerves will not help the players. This is the "cup final" to achieve ours and Markus's dream so let's all man up and make sure we all do what we can. COYR WIFM

 

Can you explain the Boro game, then ?

grammy

grammy

Posted
Posted
Can you explain the Boro game, then ?

 

From what I saw, The players gave 100%. We narrowly lost a tough away game ffs. Sat we are in front of 30,000 + Saints fans and so long as all the negative c unts like you stay away we can make it a fantastic amtosphere, get the job done and feckin PARTY!! If not then we come back next year and have another go. Football eh?

Tom & Gerry

Tom & Gerry

Posted
Posted

I'ts ok saying be positive but you would expect the players to be prepared for all eventualities and so should we as fans. Anything can happen in a one off match with this much tension - we could have a player sent off early, Coventry will certainly park the bus and our record against the bottom teams isn't that great. So go to the match prepared to cheeer yourself hourse for victory but I'd hate to not know at the end of the game if we are up or not.

kpturner

kpturner

Posted
Posted
No, but I expect us not to bottle the big matches, as we have done several times now in the past month.

Hull 0 - 2 Saints

Palace 0 - 2 Saints

Post 1 - 3 Saints

 

All big games (with the pressure on) that we did not "bottle" as you put it.

Halo Stickman

Halo Stickman

Posted
Posted
Historically it has been the case that the team finishing third flunks the playoffs.

 

During 24 years of Championship play-offs in the current format:

 

The team finishing 3rd has won the final on 9 occasions

The team finishing 4th has won the final on 4 occasions

The team finishing 5th has won the final on 6 occasions

The team finishing 6th has won the final on 5 occasions

 

So, like most statistics, it depends on how you look at it. An optimist might say that, historically, teams finishing 3rd are the most likely to win the final; whereas, a pessimist would point out that the team finishing third has flunked the play-offs more often (15 times) than not (9 times) :?

The9

The9

Posted
Posted
Historically it has been the case that the team finishing third flunks the playoffs.

 

Historically it is basically an even spread of promotion from every playoff position, actually. See above.

Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

Posted
Posted
Hull 0 - 2 Saints

Palace 0 - 2 Saints

Post 1 - 3 Saints

 

All big games (with the pressure on) that we did not "bottle" as you put it.

 

Where we've come unstuck in the last 6 games is against opposition with something to play for.

 

Blackpool and Boro, Play-off place

Reading-Promotion and Title

Portsmouth...well you know a 100 years or so of local rivalry.

 

Just can't see Coventry causing us any problems unless it's for one last NPC swansong.

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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Posted
Nope, it was a p*ss take at those of you inable to see that its covered by another thread before starting your "look at me" thread.

 

You might have summed up the maths best, but you could have put it on an existing thread.

 

My thread was a parody of that.

 

Do you know the word "parody" ???

 

It was, indeed, utterly hilarious.

 

I'm sure I speak for all on the forum in saying it's proving difficult not to continually burst into laughter at the sheer wit and genius of it.

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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I'ts ok saying be positive but you would expect the players to be prepared for all eventualities and so should we as fans. Anything can happen in a one off match with this much tension - we could have a player sent off early, Coventry will certainly park the bus and our record against the bottom teams isn't that great. So go to the match prepared to cheeer yourself hourse for victory but I'd hate to not know at the end of the game if we are up or not.

 

You will know at the end of the game if we're up or not. Well, there may be more stoppage time at West Ham, but unlikely to be more than a minute or so's difference.

Whitey Grandad

Whitey Grandad

Posted
Posted
During 24 years of Championship play-offs in the current format:

 

The team finishing 3rd has won the final on 9 occasions

The team finishing 4th has won the final on 4 occasions

The team finishing 5th has won the final on 6 occasions

The team finishing 6th has won the final on 5 occasions

 

So, like most statistics, it depends on how you look at it. An optimist might say that, historically, teams finishing 3rd are the most likely to win the final; whereas, a pessimist would point out that the team finishing third has flunked the play-offs more often (15 times) than not (9 times) :?

 

Thanks. I was of course talking about teams that are aiming for second and end up in third ;). And I was including the other two divisions. :rolleyes: That's a 37.5% success rate, better than 25% but not much better than 1 in 3. :scared:

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