Joesaint Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 SAINTS - Position: 1 - form table: 2 - with 4 games left we couldn't have expected any better :) Reading (H) - Position 2 - form table - 1 - a real 6 pointer. P.borough (A) - Position 17 - form table - 18 - only 9 pts off the drop zone but little to play for except pride. M.borough (A) - Position 8 - form table - 19 - falling away from the play off spots, lets hope their form continues. Coventry (H) - Position 22 - form table - 11 - I'm hoping that the result doesn't matter to either team We need is 6 points from these 4 games (if W.Ham go on win their remaining 4 games). Control the Controllables. Less than 2ppg. In Addkins I trust. READING - Position 2 - form table - 1 - a better GD than us over the last 6. Brighton (A) - Position 7 - form table - 14 - fighting for the playoff's, lets hope their form improves. Southampton (A) - Position 1 - form table - 2 - WE ARE SOUTHAMPTON WERE TOP OF THE LEAGUE. Nottm Forest (H) - Position 19 - form table - 3 - Great form & only 7 points from the drop zone. Crystal Palace (H) - Position 16 - form table - 20 - nothing to play for. Birmingham (A) - Position 4 - form table - 6 - should be preparing/fighting for the playoffs. Toughest run in IMHO, if they better our points average over the final 5 games, they deserve to be champions (well obviously as the table doesn't lie) WEST HAM UNITED - Position 3 - form table - 10 - Really look like they are trying to avoid promotion Brighton (H) - Position 7 - form table - 14 - Brighton could really do us a favour if they win their next 2 games Bristol City (A) - Position 21 - form table - 12 - fighting for their lives/4 points from safety Leicester (A) - Position 9 - form table - 5 - might be fighting for the playoffs/might want to avoid W.Ham next year. Hull City (H) - Position 10 - form table - 23 - the definition of nothing to play for. 4 points behind us, haven't walked the league & the fans aren't happy. W.Ham are under pressure and not handling it well, I don't think they are going to be promoted..............which means I think we will , although i'm still not comfortable saying it out loud. http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2011-2012/table Think they are six points behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 I'd take issue that Hull are the "definition of nothing to play for" when they're currently 4 points outside the playoff places, just beat the team in 8th and their mos influential player has just come back from injury. They're also a whole point behind Leicester, who you described as "might be fighting for the playoffs". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 I'd take issue that Hull are the "definition of nothing to play for" when they're currently 4 points outside the playoff places, just beat the team in 8th and their mos influential player has just come back from injury. They're also a whole point behind Leicester, who you described as "might be fighting for the playoffs". it will be easier to see the play-off picture later on this evening.Brighton are the key to it with 3 very difficult games left.If they could beat Reading though and be on 66 points I'd think that would be curtains for Hull who'd need to make up 6 points( or 5 and a few goals at least ) and probably Leicester as well.Still not to say that Brighton would make the play-offs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 it will be easier to see the play-off picture later on this evening.Brighton are the key to it with 3 very difficult games left.If they could beat Reading though and be on 66 points I'd think that would be curtains for Hull who'd need to make up 6 points( or 5 and a few goals at least ) and probably Leicester as well.Still not to say that Brighton would make the play-offs though. Perfectly possible that Hull will be out of the playoff picture by the time that West Ham play them, but not significantly more possible than Leicester being out of it as well, albeit they are playing West Ham one match earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guan 2.0 Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 Anybody know of any good pubs showing the game in Winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 Chester Saint. You are deluded, sorry mate, it ain't going to happen, played poorly since Derby and West Ham have renewed confidence. If we loose to Reading next week then that's it, playoffs. I lietrally think yoou have no clue, we can loose to reading and still go up. It is over, just first or second now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westofshannonsaint Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 I'd take issue that Hull are the "definition of nothing to play for" when they're currently 4 points outside the playoff places, just beat the team in 8th and their mos influential player has just come back from injury. They're also a whole point behind Leicester, who you described as "might be fighting for the playoffs". fair enough, maybe not the "definition", but even most their own fans seem to think their season is over/play off place is highly unlikely & they have started their summer transfer thread without suggesting what league they might in. FWIW Leicester are only 1 point ahead, along with a +12 GD. It's not much I know, but it is the reason I think they had a better chance of getting into the play offs than Hull. it's all about opinion & we all know that anything can happen - I hope I am wrong and both Leicester & Hull play W.Ham looking for a win to secure the play offs. I can't see that happening though. If Hull do manage to finish 6th, would they have 3 games in a row against W.Ham (provided they finish 3rd)? Think they are six points behind. Joe, of course you are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 Think they are six points behind. Must be a graduate to spot mistakes like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 We could do with Boro being 7 points behind 6th when we go there. A tall order, but it would be handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 10 April, 2012 Share Posted 10 April, 2012 Big game tonight then. I guess there will be online commentary of it? Hopefully Millwall pickup a good result too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nexstar Posted 11 April, 2012 Share Posted 11 April, 2012 This is how the season will play out: Friday - Draw Reading then win both of their homes games, while we pick up 4 points from our two away Last day - We are comfortably beating Coventry, while Birmingham strike a late (76th minute) equaliser in a 2-2 draw with Reading. Saints win the title on goal difference. Sorry I ruin the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Surrey Saint Posted 11 April, 2012 Share Posted 11 April, 2012 According to Matt Holland's post Easter blog we've got nothing to worry about. Quote, 'At the other end of the table, Southampton I feel wrapped up automatic promotion with four points from a possible six and once again they were heavily indebted to Rickie Lambert with both goals in Monday's win against Crystal Palace. Maybe the Saints rushed him back too quickly for the derby against Portsmouth and for me he looked a little off the pace on Saturday. It was a different story however at Palace and Nigel Adkins, his squad and the supporters can now start planning for next season in the Premier League.' Maths clearly not dear old Matt's best subject at school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 11 April, 2012 Share Posted 11 April, 2012 But Hull seem to have given up on the playoffs and gone on holiday. 5 straight defeats before they beat Boro today including defeats to Pompey and Millwall. 1 win in 12 before today, they were pretty much bottom of the form table.Maybe so, but I was simply stating a fact - nothing else implied about how or why or anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithd Posted 12 April, 2012 Share Posted 12 April, 2012 Truly believe there's a twist to come in the season. Am hoping its something like we beat Reading then Reading get over taken by West Ham. Not that i want W Ham up particularly, just dont want us to be on the receiving end of the twist...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 12 April, 2012 Share Posted 12 April, 2012 Truly believe there's a twist to come in the season. Am hoping its something like we beat Reading then Reading get over taken by West Ham. Not that i want W Ham up particularly, just dont want us to be on the receiving end of the twist...! Pompey's liquidation, and the points tally affected by it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shroppie Posted 12 April, 2012 Share Posted 12 April, 2012 As a statistician with time on his hands this week, I finally gave in to creating a spreadsheet for all 6561 possible outcomes of the remaining ganes for Saints and Hoofers. (Didn't bother bringing Reading into it - would like to finish top but WHU are realistically the team to finish above if we are to get automatic). I've asssigned realistic, and probably pessimistic, (IMO) probabilities to all games and come up with an 89% probability of promotion by a clear point or 93% if we accept that GD will stay better. Which confirms what I already thought - nearly there but not yet nailed-on, and work to be done. Dramatic how probabilities change if I put in losses to Reading and Posh - then not much better than 50%. But, in the famous words, it's just a bit of fun using my guesses for the games, which were: Saints v Reading W 30%, D 40%, L 30% WHU v Brighton W 50%, 30%, 20% Saints v Posh W 50%, D 30%, L 20% WHU v Brissle C W 80%, D 10%, L 10% Saints v Boro W 40%, D 30%, L 30% WHU v Leicester W 60%, D 20%, L 20% Saints v Coventry W 70%, D 20%, L 10% WHU v Ull W 60%, D 20%, L 20% Would happily rerun it with other probabilities, but won't be near the internet over the weekend. It'll be simpler by then anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 As a statistician with time on his hands this week, I finally gave in to creating a spreadsheet for all 6561 possible outcomes of the remaining ganes for Saints and Hoofers. (Didn't bother bringing Reading into it - would like to finish top but WHU are realistically the team to finish above if we are to get automatic). I've asssigned realistic, and probably pessimistic, (IMO) probabilities to all games and come up with an 89% probability of promotion by a clear point or 93% if we accept that GD will stay better. Which confirms what I already thought - nearly there but not yet nailed-on, and work to be done. Dramatic how probabilities change if I put in losses to Reading and Posh - then not much better than 50%. But, in the famous words, it's just a bit of fun using my guesses for the games, which were: Saints v Reading W 30%, D 40%, L 30% WHU v Brighton W 50%, 30%, 20% Saints v Posh W 50%, D 30%, L 20% WHU v Brissle C W 80%, D 10%, L 10% Saints v Boro W 40%, D 30%, L 30% WHU v Leicester W 60%, D 20%, L 20% Saints v Coventry W 70%, D 20%, L 10% WHU v Ull W 60%, D 20%, L 20% Would happily rerun it with other probabilities, but won't be near the internet over the weekend. It'll be simpler by then anyway! Chance of West Ham winning all four 14.4% if you're correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu0x Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 As a statistician with time on his hands this week, I finally gave in to creating a spreadsheet for all 6561 possible outcomes of the remaining ganes for Saints and Hoofers. but as a statistician you should know that, as your data is generated by your own entirely arbitrary percentages which you know in advance to be flawed, the end result is inherently worthless? You'd have been better off using posted odds for the remaining matches, that would at least remove some of the subjectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DT Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 Win tonight and we are all but promoted. Nothing else matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 Win tonight and we are all but promoted. Nothing else matters. Win tonight and we will win all our remaining games. Confidence will see to that. That's why tonight is so critical to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shroppie Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 but as a statistician you should know that, as your data is generated by your own entirely arbitrary percentages which you know in advance to be flawed, the end result is inherently worthless? You'd have been better off using posted odds for the remaining matches, that would at least remove some of the subjectivity. And of course no other posts on this thread are based on subjective estimates of probability. My guesses were actually a rough average of the others on this thread, so not so arbitrary. And although I'll happily rework it with published odds, don't confuse odds with probabilities. Probabilities are best estimates of likely outcomes. Odds are what make money for bookies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shroppie Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 Win tonight and we are all but promoted. Nothing else matters. No we're not, but it will help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saintjersey Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 No we're not, but it will help! We really are. If we win tonight we will be 9 points ahead of West Ham with 3 games remaining. Even if they then beat Brighton on Saturday we will still be 6 points clear with 3 games remaining. That is all but promoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toadhall Saint Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 We really are. If we win tonight we will be 9 points ahead of West Ham with 3 games remaining. Even if they then beat Brighton on Saturday we will still be 6 points clear with 3 games remaining. That is all but promoted. No its not - mathematically ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 No we're not, but it will help! mate, win tonight and we have one foot and 3 toes in the prem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cricketphilly Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 mate, win tonight and we have one foot and 3 toes in the prem Win tonight (which is a certainty) and we are up my boys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
student Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 Anything but a loss is a great tonight, the hammers will probably drop atleast 2 points in their last 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shroppie Posted 13 April, 2012 Share Posted 13 April, 2012 mate, win tonight and we have one foot and 3 toes in the prem I'd agree with that. And, if we can win, the psychological boost over WHU is very significant. Suddenly, if they then lose, it's as good as over for them. But I'm not counting chickens. If, Heaven forbid, we lose tonight and Hoofers win, they get the momentum and pressure's on for us vs Posh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
student Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 3 really tough games for the hammers, 3 points for the saints will see them up. 2 winnable games as well. Reading have been unstoppable recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 Win tonight (which is a certainty) and we are up my boys! want to rethink that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steel City Saint Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 Time to show what we are made of. Reading have showed their class with their run of wins against tough opposition recently. We need to 'man up' and put promotion to bed...if we somehow take first place, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 I cant see anything other than a win at Peterboro. I’m just hoping that Bristol C do us a favour, big time. West Ham will beat Leicester & Hull, so if they also win Tuesday, it really will get anxious. I can just see it now, win at Peterboro, lose to Middlesboro and beat Cov. However West Ham batter Hull and we fall out of the top 2 for the first time all season on the final day. I have a real real bad feeling that is what will happen if West Ham beat Bristol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashby Saint Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 I cant see anything other than a win at Peterboro. I’m just hoping that Bristol C do us a favour, big time. West Ham will beat Leicester & Hull, so if they also win Tuesday, it really will get anxious. I can just see it now, win at Peterboro, lose to Middlesboro and beat Cov. However West Ham batter Hull and we fall out of the top 2 for the first time all season on the final day. I have a real real bad feeling that is what will happen if West Ham beat Bristol. I think we will get 7 points from last three games with a draw at Middlesboro. I think if West Ham are going to slip up it will be at Leicester (they have a team that can play if its arsed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webby Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 What happens if we finish level on points, GD and goals scored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ooh it's a corner Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 What happens if we finish level on points, GD and goals scored? I think it is results between the two teams. Which gives us 4 points, to West Ham's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nexstar Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 What happens if we finish level on points, GD and goals scored? Think it might be goals against and then on to head-to-head results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noodles34 Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 what happens if we finish level on points, gd and goals scored? wet biscuit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nexstar Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 Bristol City are unbeaten in 5 and will be fighting for their lives Tuesday. They certainly won't roll over like Brighton did today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webby Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 wet biscuitSoggy moggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 Think it might be goals against and then on to head-to-head results If we are level on GD and goals scored then it follows goals against will also be equal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 We ain't going to be level on goals scored. We're way ahead of West Ham on that measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 We ain't going to be level on goals scored. We're way ahead of West Ham on that measure. Isn't it now 77 for us and 76 for them ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 Isn't it now 77 for us and 76 for them ?? I think so, today's game has closed everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crab Lungs Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 I can't predict what is going to happen, I just can't call it. What I can say is that I'm trying to decipher whether I'm nervous or whether it is a genuine, prophetic feeling of dread since Whams result came in. Still, we're ahead so it's ours to **** up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 3 really tough games for the hammers, 3 points for the saints will see them up. 2 winnable games as well. Reading have been unstoppable recently. I don't agree, W Ham have the easier of the fixtures IMHO The 2 points dropped v Pompey will come back to haunt us. Reading fully deserved their win against us, and the Peterboro match is a great big banana skin. Under Adkins "guidence" we have blown it Big Time IMHO Play offs it will be, and with dwindling confidence, plus an obvious inability to play one touch football any more, it will be CCC for next season From a position of being miles ahead not so long ago, Adkins wheels have definitely come off the bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micky Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 I think that we have to win all of our games, because after the momentum that they have gained from today, WHU will win all of theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vince Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 I think WHam will have a tough game against Bristol and lets not forget that they play Leicester on the Monday night, and we will have two days more recovery time than them to prepare for the final game. Providing we are ahead going into that, that could be a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 I think that we have to win all of our games, because after the momentum that they have gained from today, WHU will win all of theirs. But we won't!!! even if WHU win all their games, we still finish in front of them with 2 wins and 1 draw!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 I think WHam will have a tough game against Bristol and lets not forget that they play Leicester on the Monday night, and we will have two days more recovery time than them to prepare for the final game. Providing we are ahead going into that, that could be a big factor. As long as we are still 2nd going into the Coventry game then I think we're there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 14 April, 2012 Share Posted 14 April, 2012 As long as we are still 2nd going into the Coventry game then I think we're there. Unfortunately I don't think we will be We have already blown it, because we are currently NOT in form Darren Furguson will be the one laughing on Tuesday evening IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now